tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post2664923781808107513..comments2024-03-22T06:05:36.544-04:00Comments on Kids Prefer Cheese: Odds are GoodMungowitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02340064320347875601noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-64113129827899220672015-02-06T17:26:55.666-05:002015-02-06T17:26:55.666-05:00Hopefully in phrasing the question, Taleb doesn...Hopefully in phrasing the question, Taleb doesn't specify it's a fair coin. Because a right answer that requires violating a premise of the question is rhetorical dirty pool.<br /><br />(note: I'm not actually that cranky about it and I get the point he's making)John Covilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16791564966801146755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-45572763899472964412015-02-03T12:37:22.471-05:002015-02-03T12:37:22.471-05:00Hey:
Odds are that some leader, somewhere will hit...Hey:<br />Odds are that some leader, somewhere will hit it big.<br />Mugabe wins in Zimbabwe.<br /><br />http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/621895.stmSteve in Pennsylvaniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12482251876611476826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-88899719540436503422015-02-02T15:53:56.482-05:002015-02-02T15:53:56.482-05:00It's not just the unwashed/uneducated who get ...It's not just the unwashed/uneducated who get it wrong. So much of probability runs contrary to intuition that the PhD's screw up too.<br />I remember 25 years ago when Marilyn vos Savant, a columnist, ran a now famous puzzle asking whether a contestant on a game show should switch the door they picked after they then see one of the other two opened to reveal no prize. (see it at http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/) Her answer was that you doubled your odds of winning if you switched from one unknown door to the other.<br /><br />She received hundreds of letters from PhD professors telling her she was a bonehead. The odds were 50/50! It made no difference if you switched!<br />They signed their names to angry letters asking her to apologize.<br /><br />Not being as smart as those guys, I ran a small monte-carlo style simulation on my IBM 286, and saw that she was right. I had no idea why, but her answer was legit. Since then, I've learned enough about Bayesian logic to understand why people believe something when it's not true. If you take a little information but close your mind to additional, relevant information, you may not realize that there's a better answer out there.Pelsminnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-27664812267830436682015-02-02T14:30:39.203-05:002015-02-02T14:30:39.203-05:00This reminds me of the birthday problem teachers l...This reminds me of the birthday problem teachers like to pull out when covering probability in high school. <br /><br />P becomes greater than 0.5 that two people in a class will share a birthday when the class size is larger than something like twenty-three (forget exactly; too lazy to look it up or redo the calc.)<br /><br />always amazes kids that something that seems so <i>unlikely</i> actually isn'tMichaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15706375351999428103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-375946900121562722015-02-02T13:32:57.455-05:002015-02-02T13:32:57.455-05:00'Mr Talib says the answer should be "head...'Mr Talib says the answer should be "heads",'<br /><br />"Heads" is a probability?!gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-7277701906397138382015-02-02T06:15:27.747-05:002015-02-02T06:15:27.747-05:00The probability is 1.
As it usually is of events ...The probability is 1.<br /><br />As it usually is of events that have happened.<br /><br />:-)Tim Worstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13161727860817121071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-47983753543728487382015-02-01T14:25:56.179-05:002015-02-01T14:25:56.179-05:00People certainly don't understand probability ...People certainly don't understand probability in many cases.<br /><br />The other side is a comment in Nicholas Talib's "The Black Swan" -- For the classic "if you flip a fair coin 999 times and it comes up heads each time, what's the chance it will come up heads again"? The conventional response is 50%. Mr Talib says the answer should be "heads", because at that point the probability that this isn't a "fair" coin is higher than the probability the coin will come up tails.Thomas Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05701283200252131890noreply@blogger.com