tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post3271808142540830782..comments2024-03-22T06:05:36.544-04:00Comments on Kids Prefer Cheese: ForecastingMungowitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02340064320347875601noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-88233601827746685492015-10-04T11:47:02.249-04:002015-10-04T11:47:02.249-04:00OK, meteorologists can't accurately forecast t...OK, meteorologists can't accurately forecast the weather for the coming weekend, but at least governments can spend billions to mitigate "global warming," based on century-ahead forecasts by prescient-omniscient environmentalists. If they too are prone to erroneous prognostication, they should switch to merely forecasting "climate change." That's not too tough; can't go wrong; adopt the epistemology of Heraclitus. Oh, wait: they DID make that switch!! Wise move. Why not also our weathermen? "My forecast for the coming weekend is that things will CHANGE."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-23414519151720985592015-10-01T18:54:51.684-04:002015-10-01T18:54:51.684-04:00I don't blame economists for not being able to...I don't blame economists for not being able to predict the economy. I don't even blame them for trying to predict the economy. I blame them for pretending that they can predict the economy.Rick Samborskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09990670352422421861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-22118375549627127282015-10-01T12:32:36.240-04:002015-10-01T12:32:36.240-04:00Hurricanes are part of a system where the microfou...Hurricanes are part of a system where the microfoundations are known and that is known to be nonlinear. Neither of those have been remotely established for economics.Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-79025706777317880972015-09-30T17:10:59.287-04:002015-09-30T17:10:59.287-04:00This is why you shouldn't look inside the blac...This is why you shouldn't look inside the black box when the motor is running. <br /><br />With ensemble learning, the more diverse the component models are, the better the overall results tend to be. <br /><br />(Figures 38 and 39 show the model performance when they come together to form Voltron. <br /><br />M. Janousek, P. Bauer, J. Bidlot, L. Ferranti, T. Hewson, F. Prates, D.S. Richardson and F. Vitart <br />Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2013-2014 upgrades <br />December 2014 <br />http://old.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/show?id=91243<br /><br />) Simon Sperohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15956746824178743667noreply@blogger.com