tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post8859024833725869294..comments2024-03-22T06:05:36.544-04:00Comments on Kids Prefer Cheese: The Economy & Presidential ElectionsMungowitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02340064320347875601noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-64442012607402673982012-09-19T13:36:58.902-04:002012-09-19T13:36:58.902-04:00Dear Sis: whether the President is challenged in-p...Dear Sis: whether the President is challenged in-party seems to me to be pretty endogenous. That is something we might explain by economic conditions or scandals, not take as a given to predict outcomes.<br /><br />Anon 7:29 / 9-19.<br /><br />I am just looking at the raw data and comparing averages of winners v. losers. I wouldn't call it a model.I am dealing with DGP issues by not using the distant past. Sure there can always be a regime shift and that's a potential criticism of anything.<br />Angushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03656436431053306500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-44348925508276022412012-09-19T07:29:05.660-04:002012-09-19T07:29:05.660-04:00You write:
"But, one thing about statistical...You write:<br /><br />"But, one thing about statistical models of elections is that they kind of suck. There aren't a lot of observations so people often use data from the distant past to predict the future without testing to see if the data generating process is constant over the time period."<br /><br />How does what you do here help you with that? If other models are crap than I see no reason to believe that this one is crap too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-73821512135819346172012-09-18T14:44:48.223-04:002012-09-18T14:44:48.223-04:00As I have argued already in http://mythdesisyphus....As I have argued already in http://mythdesisyphus.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/on-handicaping-the-coming-election/#more-497, it is neither the economy nor the campaign that has determined the election outcome in the case of a sitting president seeking reelection, at least since WWII. <br /><br />It is rather the presence or absence of a credible challenge from the president's own side. So, yes, BHO is heavily favored to win this one, unless he manages to make history again by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-8919065283172129742012-09-18T13:35:59.694-04:002012-09-18T13:35:59.694-04:00Paper also gives medians, that's about it thou...Paper also gives medians, that's about it though.<br />Angushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03656436431053306500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-82644984797800147282012-09-18T13:29:42.385-04:002012-09-18T13:29:42.385-04:00I'd like to see some error bars or confidence ...I'd like to see some error bars or confidence bands around the mean growth lines.JFAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-29189873752113678192012-09-18T11:04:01.642-04:002012-09-18T11:04:01.642-04:00I loathe BHO as well, but consider Romney to be re...I loathe BHO as well, but consider Romney to be reasonable - although i'd agree, terrible campaign thus far. What part of it is "brain-damaged", however?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-68095612084845601182012-09-18T10:07:06.480-04:002012-09-18T10:07:06.480-04:00As much as I dislike BHO, four more years of divid...As much as I dislike BHO, four more years of divided government will be better than Romney running an undisciplined, juvenile, brain-damaged White House.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08574355302581451838noreply@blogger.com