tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post168899741686248322..comments2024-03-22T06:05:36.544-04:00Comments on Kids Prefer Cheese: Group Decision MakingMungowitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02340064320347875601noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-88719406273722319192012-09-18T15:27:28.198-04:002012-09-18T15:27:28.198-04:00Not precisely bias from self-interest so much as t...Not precisely bias from self-interest so much as that the "fact of the matter" often depends on who you are. Where you stand depends on where you sit, so to speak. If the two wolves vote for a mutton dinner and the sheep votes for mandatory veganism, it can only be called a matter of cognitive bias by doing violence to the term. They're all voting their self-interest, but these naturally diverge. It's a rum world.Bernard Guerrerohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13058188937972313421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-60322409856887763512012-09-16T10:53:34.623-04:002012-09-16T10:53:34.623-04:00Tom, there is also Condorcet's Jury Theorem, a...Tom, there is also Condorcet's Jury Theorem, and also the famous Galton experiment on the weight of an ox. http://www.all-about-psychology.com/the-wisdom-of-crowds.html<br /><br />The thing is that central limit theorem operates here. If you have many independent observations, the central tendency should be unbiased estimate of the mean. BUT (!) they have to be independent, and there has to be a fact of the matter.<br /><br />I would say that democracy fails on (1) independence and (2) bias from self-interest. But there are plenty of things that are not markets that are good aggregators of information.Mungowitzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02340064320347875601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7464708.post-81964973048543828552012-09-16T08:27:35.958-04:002012-09-16T08:27:35.958-04:00Are these "groups" that "make"...Are these "groups" that "make" decisions actually markets? If so, the result is hardly surprising. If by "group decision", they mean democracy, then I don't believe it.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08574355302581451838noreply@blogger.com