So, on May 21, I said that the sky was falling, and I was bailing. Took everything out of stocks, and invested in bonds. Mostly in the TIAA-CREF's "inflation-linked" bond product.
On May 21, the DJIA was 12,450. Today, it is 12702. That's up about 2% since I ran and squealed. DJIA has been higher, as high as 12,900, and as low as 12,100, since May 21. But right now, it's just over 12700. The inflation linked bond is up about 1.2% since May 21.
So, clearly, you are better off ex post if you stayed in stocks. But I have been sleeping well.
On May 21, the DJIA was 12,450. Today, it is 12702. That's up about 2% since I ran and squealed. DJIA has been higher, as high as 12,900, and as low as 12,100, since May 21. But right now, it's just over 12700. The inflation linked bond is up about 1.2% since May 21.
So, clearly, you are better off ex post if you stayed in stocks. But I have been sleeping well.
You are not buying back in yet, are you?
ReplyDeleteAs I understood your analysis -- the fuse is lit and the charge is going to go off. Once you've come to that conclusion, and found shelter -- it doesn't make much sense to second guess how long the fuse is, how fast it burns, and start to regret that you didn't do more sightseeing during your exit.
ReplyDeleteI am NOT buying back in. If anything, it all looks worse now than two months ago.
ReplyDeleteAnd SheetWise has this right. I am watching from the bunker. I am not going back out there.
Should have bought Treasuries instead. Better return and you can sleep.
ReplyDelete