Forecasting

Okay, so people make fun of the bad forecasts of economists.  Fair enough.  But economists are trying to forecast actions of sentient, prospectively focused creatures.

Hurricanes are just big unruly piles of wind.  But we can't forecast THOSE either.  Check out this "ensemble" forecast for the next week (click for an even more incoherent image):

Of course, if we can't predict the actions of "big unruly piles of wind" I guess forecasts about Congressional votes are also off the table. 

Female Hurricanes: Deadlier?

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes 

Kiju Jung et al. 
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 17 June 2014, Pages 8782–8787 

Abstract: Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents’ preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

Ice, Ice Baby

Because of the ice storm on eastern seaboard, someone sent me this.

 

I was struck by several things.

1.  VI stole the "Under Pressure" riff so blatantly.  What happened with that?  I had forgotten.  Settled out of court, apparently.
2.  VI stole Justin's Bieber's hair-do and embarrassingly fake swagger 30 years before Justin even had the idea.  That's good stealin'.  Okay, fine, Justin stole from VI.  VI has some advice for Justin.
3.  "My Five Point Oh"?  Seriously, that was the cool car?  I vaguely remember that.  But it seems impossible now.

UPDATE:  Jackie Blue sends this.  As he should have.

 

Storm paths, then and now

Robin & I first moved to Norman shortly after the Moore tornado of 1999 which was a brutal storm. Now we've seen the Moore tornado of 2013, which may prove to be even more devastating. We are fine, but as you've seen, the images and statistics coming out of Moore are horrible.

Here's a chart from the National Weather Service comparing the two storms' paths:

You can see that Norman is at the bottom right of the map.

Thanks to everyone who's been contacting us with concern and good wishes.

FEMA Closes, Due to Weather

FEMA offices closed, due to weather.

Nod to Angry Alex.

Santiago de Chile

I'll be in Chile for more than a month. El otoño there in the southern cone.

My sincere thanks to JPC for setting this up.

You Play, We Pay

An article about how hard the folks out on the sandbar...er ... barrier islands of NC have it.

Best quote: "this is the price you pay for living in paradise." Well, no. This is the price *WE* pay so you can live on a freakin' sandbar.

Look, you loonies are welcome to live out there. But the state subsidized insurance for decades, and pays for new roads, and rebuilds broken roads. That money comes from people who have to pay to visit paradise.

So you can live there at public expense.

I have no problem with people living out there. If they like it, good for them. And emergency services, in cases where the emergency is unpredictable? Okay by me.

But living on a sandbar that never gets higher than 8 feet, in an area where storm surge from a hurricane hits 12 feet or more at least once a decade? Why do I have to pay for that?

(Nod to the Blonde)

Ice Storm

We are getting a fo-sho, straight from Oklahomo, oh-no ice storm here in Raleigh.

To paraphrase Joe Schultz: s*&t-f%$k.

Snow, and Lots of It

Baby, it's cold outside. Compare that view to just a few days ago...
The taller mountains are especially snowy.
People keep saying that this is unusually cold. One lunch mate here said that this was the coldest winter for nearly ten years. Since I had been told the same thing (well, coldest summer, then) in Germany last year, I doubted the claim.

But it's true. It is apparently VERY unusually cold here right now. It's actually dangerous.

Perhaps it's me. I made Germany cold last year, and Chile cold this year. Soy poderoso!

God hates Oklahoma

Wow people, that was a close one! Mrs. Angus, Mr. Tooty, and myself spent late yesterday afternoon and early evening hanging out in our bedroom closet listening to the tornado sirens (which was ok til the power went out), while all hell broke loose outside.

One of my favorite quotes from the National Weather Service yesterday was: "This storm likely to contain damaging hail of baseball size or greater"

I wondered if there was a such thing as baseball sized hail that was UN-damaging, and also doubted that hail could get that big.

Regarding my doubt, here is a photo posted by a local Facebook friend (thanks JPP!)

Yikes!

Another Earthquake in Chile

Huge Aftershocks in Chile

Tsunami warnings....

Heavy Weather: Two Feet of Snow Forecast!

Snow

Here is a picture of the house of a friend in Montana:

All right, no. That is the house of Anonyman, in the DC suburbs. Yikes. More snow comin'. Have fun, Anonyman! Shovel, Anonyman, shovel. Ouch, Anonyman, ouch, don't hit ME with the shovel.... I didn't make it snow.

Montesquieu Reincarnate!!

Montesquieu famously had this amazingly racist explanation of the different "characters" of nations. And it was based on....weather! Weather causes "certain" people (for the racist M, that would be "dark" people) to be lazy and no 'count. Check this:

Spirit of the Laws: Book XIV. Of Laws in Relation to the Nature of the Climate

1. General Idea. If it be true that the temper of the mind and the passions of the heart are extremely different in different climates, the laws ought to be in relation both to the variety of those passions and to the variety of those tempers.

2. Of the Difference of Men in different Climates. Cold air constringes the extremities of the external fibres of the body;[1] this increases their elasticity, and favours the return of the blood from the extreme parts to the heart. It contracts[2] those very fibres; consequently it increases also their force. On the contrary, warm air relaxes and lengthens the extremes of the fibres; of course it diminishes their force and elasticity.

People are therefore more vigorous in cold climates. Here the action of the heart and the reaction of the extremities of the fibres are better performed, the temperature of the humours is greater, the blood moves more freely towards the heart, and reciprocally the heart has more power. This superiority of strength must produce various effects; for instance, a greater boldness, that is, more courage; a greater sense of superiority, that is, less desire of revenge; a greater opinion of security, that is, more frankness, less suspicion, policy, and cunning.

In short, this must be productive of very different tempers. Put a man into a close, warm place, and for the reasons above given he will feel a great faintness. If under this circumstance you propose a bold enterprise to him, I believe you will find him very little disposed towards it; his present weakness will throw him into despondency; he will be afraid of everything, being in a state of total incapacity. The inhabitants of warm countries are, like old men, timorous; the people in cold countries are, like young men, brave.

Now, unbelievably, check this!

The Income–Temperature Relationship in a Cross-Section of Countries and its Implications for Predicting the Effects of Global Warming

John Horowitz, Environmental and Resource Economics, December 2009, Pages 475-493

Abstract: Hotter countries are poorer on average. This paper attempts to separate the historical and contemporaneous components of this income–temperature relationship. Following ideas by Acemoglu et al., we use colonial mortality data to account for the historical role of temperature since colonial mortality was highly correlated with countries’ average temperatures. The remaining income–temperature gradient, after colonial mortality is accounted for, is most likely contemporaneous. This contemporaneous effect can be used to estimate the consequences of global warming. We predict that a 1°C temperature increase across all countries will cause a decrease of 3.8% in world GDP. This prediction is robust across functional forms and an alternative method for separating historical effects.

Wow! Global warming allows lefties to be racists! Yikes!

Thomas Schelling speaks

on Waxman-Markey and the implications of climate change for rich and poor countries.

1. On Waxman-Markey:

"my only objection to Waxman-Markey is that it's such a hodgepodge, with all kinds of escape valves. And I don't think it's specific enough on what the cap will be from year to year to year. And also, it's 1,200 pages. And 1,200 pages implies that it's an awfully complicated hodgepodge.

If you were putting a cap on oil at the wellhead -- and a cap on coal at the minehead, a cap on gas at the wellhead, and on oil and gas at the port of importation -- so that it was essentially a cap on the fossil fuels, rather than trying to put a cap on electricity in the middle west versus electricity in the South. Or a cap on various manufacturing industries. Or a cap on refineries, even. That seems to me a not very serious way to tackle the problem where it originates. And my actual feeling is that the best you can hope for with this Waxman-Markey bill is that it'll take a few years to discover that it's a huge nuisance of the problem, and they ought to find a way to simplify it. And the way to simplify it is to put the cap on the fossil fuels, not on different industries."

2. On climate change's effect on the rich vs. the poor:

"If I were to come clean to the American public I would say that, except for a very low probability of a very bad result -- which is the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which would put Washington DC under water -- we are probably going to outgrow any vulnerability we have to climate change. And in case we'll be able to afford to buy food or import it is necessary. You know, very little of the US economy is susceptible to climate. All of agriculture is less than 3% of our gross product. Forestry may be endangered. Fisheries may be endangered. But recreation might actually benefit!

So if we can double our GDP in the next 70 or 80 years, even if we lose some of our GDP from climate change -- even if we lose 10% of our GDP from climate change -- we're still ahead so much that the effect of climate change wouldn't be noticed. But it would be pretty disastrous in a lot of the less developed parts of the world. And that's why I think it's crucially important not to demand anything of China, India and so forth that will significantly impede their economic progress".



Hat tip to Mark Thoma!

My Second Career as a Weather Forecaster: Not Working Out

I had scheduled a Bastille Day celebration, a mid-summer American style bbq to share the celebration of our French bretheren and sisteren. Had obtained, with help from the intrepid Hajo, a huge quantity of Hähnchenschenkel, weiners, kartoffelsalat, and a 30 liter wooden keg of Steinbach-Bräu (that was with the help of the lovely Eva, I should note, a sturdy lass when it comes to helping out with the beer and mugs.)

And I had reserved, with the help of Frau Uhlich, a terrific wide grassy spot, right on campus, and nice wooden tables and a fine large grille. (Okay, Martin was the brains behind all this, but I did what he told me, so I deserve SOME credit).

Then, Monday morgen, I look at many different weather forecasts. Rain. Rain all day. Two centimeters or more of rain, getting heavier throughout the day.

And so I postponed everything. Had to pick up the chicken thighs, but some extra marination and then freezing won't hurt them. Hadn't even bought the wassermelon or mais am kolben yet, because I wanted them to be fresh. And the hot dogs and potato salad will keep. But the beer, the location, the tables, the grille, the help, and all the guests....have to reschedule for the following week. A pretty big hassle, since everyone is trying very hard to help me, and now they are having to rework a pretty big set of things. (I can just imagine the conversations: "Wow, Munger is pretty high maintenance, isn't he?" "Um...yeah, he is. A nut.")

Tuesday morning dawns. Cold. Rainy. Blustery. I am vindicated. Except...it starts to clear up. Then, a little more rain, but big patches of blue in the sky.

By 4 pm, bright blue sunshiny sky, with puffy little clouds, just to mock me. By 6:30 pm, the time the party would have started if somebody we know hadn't panicked... a cool, clear evening, with the light clean smell that comes after (AFTER) the rain stops completely and definitively.

Honestly, I have been in Germany now for three months. At the time of the scheduled party, and for the next four hours, this was one of the three or four nicest evenings the WHOLE TIME I HAVE BEEN HERE.

I am afraid that Martin is going to pull something in his neck. Every time I see him, he is making a sincere effort not to giggle. Not that he actaully cares about my feelings. It is just that it is not necessary to say anything.

I HATE German weather.

UPDATE: A thunderstorm came through about 2 am last night. Since, it has been cold and rainy. Right now: 63F and raining pretty hard.

The only time in the last 36 hours that has not been cold and rainy was the six hour window when I had scheduled my party. In that six hours, it was beautiful.

UPDATE II: I'm not just paranoid. People have been telling that this summer is unusual. But wait: The average high in June in Erlangen is 22 C (72 F), and the low is 11 (52). The month of June averages a total of 10+ rain days. The average for July is slightly (1.5 degrees C) warmer, but with 12 rainy days. In short, this is not unusual. There just isn't any summer here. Curse you, Red Baron.

How Can It Be So Darned COLD?

This is buggin' me. It is going to 4 deg C tonight, and 2 deg C tomorrow night. That's 36 F for tomorrow eve. It's not like I'm in the mountains (Erlangen is about 1100 -- 1250 feet above sea level, not even 400 meters, even up on the Berg).

I would like to point out that this is JUNI, not März, for heaven's sake. The brass monkeys are all complaining, in high pitched voices.

So, if you are in Germany, and are waiting for a bus, here are some conversation starters, no matter WHO you are talking to (lots of visitors during Bergkirchweih, so you want to be prepared in all languages). "It is cold!"

French – il fait froid
German – es ist kalt
Italian – fa freddo
Spanish – hace frío
Portuguese – faz frio
Hungarian – hideg van
Dutch – het is koud
Mandarin Chinese – tyen heun lung
Polish – jest zimno
Romanian – este frig