Theories of Voting

Jim Bob notes that if other people vote, it makes little sense to vote. But what if everyone thought that way? (1) They don't. (2) If they did, then I'd vote. But then so would they.


Corporate Avenger's view: Voting doesn't work.
NSFW!

Brits Eat Some Weird Stuff

So, visited Tommy the Tenured Brit. Ate kidneys, venison, baked-tomatoes-for-breakfast, and had a whole lot of pints of room temperature flat beer in little places the getting to which involved driving like hell in the dark on roads just wide enough for oxcarts, on the wrong side of the freakin' road.

But the oddest thing? The oddest thing was clearly the zombie shrimp dish at the Horse and Groom.

Okay, technically that's a zombie langostino, rising from beneath the pie crust to langost the whole earth. And, they didn't call it "zombie shrimp." They called it "Rabbit and Langostino pie." But wouldn't that shrimp give most little kids nightmares?

I liked it, a lot, however. Rabbit was pretty darned tasty, too.

thou pickle-herring in the puppet-show of nonsense

When Robert Burns got mad, he got even:


Ellisland, 1791.


 Dear Sir:


 Thou eunuch of language; thou Englishman, who never was south the Tweed; thou servile echo of fashionable barbarisms; thou quack, vending the nostrums of empirical elocution; thou marriage-maker between vowels and consonants, on the Gretna-green of caprice; thou cobler, botching the flimsy socks of bombast oratory; thou blacksmith, hammering the rivets of absurdity; thou butcher, embruing thy hands in the bowels of orthography; thou arch-heretic in pronunciation; thou pitch-pipe of affected emphasis; thou carpenter, mortising the awkward joints of jarring sentences; thou squeaking dissonance of cadence; thou pimp of gender; thou Lyon Herald to silly etymology; thou antipode of grammar; thou executioner of construction; thou brood of the speech-distracting builders of the Tower of Babel; thou lingual confusion worse confounded; thou scape-gallows from the land of syntax; thou scavenger of mood and tense; thou murderous accoucheur of infant learning; thou ignis fatuus, misleading the steps of benighted ignorance; thou pickle-herring in the puppet-show of nonsense; thou faithful recorder of barbarous idiom; thou persecutor of syllabication; thou baleful meteor, foretelling and facilitating the rapid approach of Nox and Erebus.


R.B.

Source is here. Hat tip to Mrs. Angus

prophets of the marginal revolution!

"Whatever you say about the euro, it's a great insulator." ~Frank Buckley.

 He should know, he lives Dublin in a house made of over $1 billion of shredded Euro notes.

 Story is here.

 Hat tip to the OPMR.

Is this what austerity looks like?

The graph above shows Federal spending (in blue) and State and Local spending (in red). The gray shaded area is the NBER's dating of the last recession. The numbers are NOT adjusted for inflation

Federal spending is still than 30% higher than it was in January of 2007. State and Local spending is still around 12% higher than it was in January 2007.

Is this really austerity?

Can government spending really never come down? Isn't it over 2 years since the end of the recession?

Aren't all the people talking about fiscal drag and government spending cuts slowing down the recovery just arguing from accounting identities like they yell at the right wingers for doing?

Can we really run a trillion dollar deficit and bemoan austerity simultaneously?

They're not your father's manufacturing jobs

Here's an awesome anti-Yglesias screed where the author states the following:

I support high employment in manufacturing. The reason is that I believe that people are paid more if they work in manufacturing than if they work in other sectors.

And the following:

 People get something for nothing if they switch from employment in services to employment in manufacturing -- well the data show they lose big if they move the other way. 

 This guy is saying that there are, in his words, "labor market rents" in the manufacturing sector.

I think what the recent evidence shows though is that there WERE labor market rents in the manufacturing sector.

These rents came from the power of unions. But (1) they weren't a free lunch, as they were partly paid for by higher prices to consumers. (2) These rents are, to a large extent, gone. Virtually every story I've seen about new manufacturing jobs talks about the two-tiered wage schemes where the incumbent workers earn the higher wages and better benefits and the new workers get significantly lower hourly wages and weaker benefits.

 Globalization is bringing this about and it's not going to go away. "Labor market rents" to unskilled (and indeed many skilled workers) are not sustainable as more and more countries join the global system.

I see little benefit in glamorizing and subsidizing manufacturing jobs in a specific way, as they are more and more $15/hour positions with limited upsides.

Of course, I don't even agree with the general notion that the government should be actively planning where its citizens will work.

I do see a role for subsidizing basic research. I have views about subsidizing the acquiring of skills, but my position in academia probably makes them suspect so I'll just leave that alone.

Kraft hates America

Did you know there were green tea Oreos? Mango & orange Oreos? Hollow, straw shaped Oreos you can use to drink milk?

Well there are, but they are not sold in the USA. They were developed in China (by Kraft) and have spread throughout Asia, even into Canada.

Look here dammit. I want a mango & orange Oreo and I want it now!

ps. better make it gluten-free though

Das boot

is exactly what Germany wants to give to what's left of the Greek government. Apparently installing an unelected "technocratic" government hasn't moved Greece very close to where Germany wants them to be so now they want to appoint a "budget commissioner" with veto power over Greek fiscal decisions. And they want Greece to pass a law saying that "first and foremost" all state revenues will go to debt reduction.

Read all about it here.

To me, this is Germany saying, "don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out" to their southern vassals.

In my opinion Greece should take them up on the offer and generously offer investors including the ECB, German & French banks, and the IMF a 100% haircut on their holdings of Greek debt.

Greece has more leverage in this situation than Germany seems to want to believe or at least admit.

Ok, now vinyl is no longer cool

Why?

Because Target now sells turntables!

Really.

Ouch.

But I bet they won't carry this turntable:

More info is here, and no I don't own a piece of the company nor was I solicited to write about them, nor given any inducement to write about them. At KPC, we KIR (keep it real).

Not good

The advance estimate of real GDP growth for last quarter (2011 q4) is in at 2.8%. This is not so good in a number of ways.

First, "expectations" were for 3%.

Second, over half of the growth came from increased "inventory investment", i.e. the accumulation of unsold goods. 

Third, this number is subject to revision and the direction of revision is frequently downward.

Fourth, real GDP growth in 2011 was substantially lower than it was is 2010! 1.7% vs. 3.0%

Epic Fail!

Fifth, even if we discount points 1-4, 2.8% is a pitiful growth rate for a country coming out of a deep recession with a high unemployment rate and a depressed level of labor force participation.

President Obama should be thanking his deity every day for Mitt and Newt. They are the only reasons he's likely to win re-election with an economy this weak.

Ewwwww! He Said "Lance the Boil"

Perhaps not the most felicitous metaphor...but it was heartfelt.

Re Beverly "Govnah Dumplin" Perdue deciding not to seek reelection: the very smart and comely Laura Leslie came over to the house for a bit. We got to talk politics on the back porch, with Hobo the Wonder Dog sniffing the camera.

War on Drugs

New and deeply weird video for the War on Drugs' song "Brothers":

The War on Drugs - Brothers from Secretly Jag on Vimeo.

"I was just so relieved and so happy he didn't write a song about giraffes"!

News Tip on Bev Perdue

My thoughts on Bev Perdue's announcement today....

Three possibilities here. One is that this is engineered to make way for Dan Blue, the African-American state senator from Wake County. Perdue waited until now to make it harder for anyone else to enter the race. The fact that the primary is on the same day as the Constitutional Amendment on gay marriage assures a large black turnout. This could be the difference to get Dan Blue the nomination.

The second possibility--Interesting that Brad Miller pulled out of the District 4 fight with David Price yesterday. Could that timing mean something?

The final possibility, and the most likely, is this: just typical chaos and confusion in politics, and no one should read too much into the timing. Dr. Perdue was just too much of a liability in an important swing state, and the national party sent some senior folks to tell her to spend more time with her grandchildren.

The Fed is a bear

I read the Fed's latest announcements as a sign that they are very bearish on the US economy. They are saying two things. (1) The Fed funds rate will stay near zero at least through most of 2014, and (2) their inflation target is 2%.

The only ways I can see those two points being consistent with each other is if we have another recession or a sustained but pitiful "expansion" for the next 10-12 quarters.

I wouldn't want to be an incumbent from the President's party running for re-election in the 2014 midterms if the Fed "achieves" both of their announced objectives.

Mexican electoral politics is getting interesting

It seemed like back to the future. The PRI looked like they had the presidential election locked up without even having to resort to unplugging the vote-counting computers and improvising some results. The PAN is very weak partly due to their failing drug war and the PRD has somehow again nominated El Peje, who has slipped into the twilight zone.

But now word comes that the PRI is losing part of its electoral alliance. The party of the Mexican teachers union (i.e. Panal) is pulling its considerable support.


Why?

Because of a grass-roots revolt inside the PRI over plans to put the union head's daughter and son-in-law up as Senate candidates.

When informed that this was no longer on the table,  Elba Esther Gordillo pulled her party out of the alliance (from her home in San Diego) and showed why Mexican Spanish is the greatest language on the planet by saying:

"Pues entonces, que se vaya todo a la chingada"

Hat tip to Aguachile via Greg Weeks!

Why must the Captain go down with the ship?

Poor Francesco Schettino. He tripped and fell into a lifeboat and now he's globally vilified and most likely headed to jail.

Do you question why it's the "law of the sea" that the Captain must be the last person off the ship in an evacuation situation?

This guy says the practice evolved as a way for Brits to show their superiority over "Latin people".

Chivalry at sea became an essential British ideal, and proof of the superiority of Anglo-Saxons (a category that included North Americans and most northern Europeans) over more panicky peoples from the south and east.

In truth, there is a strong economic reason for such a norm. It should encourage both (a) better accident avoidance and (b) a well thought out and well practiced evacuation plan.

After all, if I'm gonna be the last guy off, I have a big incentive to make sure that everyone gets off quickly and efficiently.

Phone call for Peter Leeson!

Still Sick From Return

Had hoped to be back up to speed by now. Spent four nights in England, in London and then visiting Tommy the Brit.

But got badly sick on plane back. That may be as (temporarily) miserable as you can get, outside of prison: nine hours with a bad fever, shivering, in coach, getting up every 20 minutes to puke (or pretend to puke, because your stomach insists). And then getting to &^$%*ing Atlanta and being greeted by the friendly staff of America's "Welcome home! Now bend over" customs.

Then four hours on the floor in Atlanta waiting for the flight that is (of course) delayed. Coach again, middle seat. Stewardess actually wakes me, incredulous that I don't want peanuts. No, ma'am, thanks very much.

Was in a near coma yesterday. Finally kept something solid down around 2 pm.

Today, I was feeling so bad I actually played Angry Birds. Had never played it before. Nice, because you can shoot a bird at those bad pigs and then take a little nap before your next shot. A nice quiet little game. I will never, ever play it again.

It would be good if my head stopped hurting. But the whole not puking thing is an improvement.

Tomorrow: England, Tommy the Brit, Harold. And, of course, the Cock.

Don't call me Shirley

Have you heard about New Mexico?

It's getting bigger!

Land of Enchantment indeed.

One day me and Mrs. Angus' dirt pile may be a whole ranch!

Lagarde vs. Lagarde

Chrissie, you got some 'splainin' to do!

 The head of the International Monetary Fund warned that in addition to cutting yawning budget deficits Europe needs to do more to promote growth and stop the crisis from spreading to the world economy. "It is about avoiding a 1930s moment, in which inaction, insularity, and rigid ideology combine to cause a collapse in global demand," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said before the German Council on Foreign Relations. "A moment, ultimately, leading to a downward spiral that could engulf the entire world," she said. 

 People, one of the most effective remedies for the "1930s problem" was for countries to exit the gold standard and devalue their currencies (you are allowed to agree with this even if you favor a gold standard by simply believing that they'd chosen the wrong parities). The situation in Europe is eerily similar. The PIIGS need to exit the Euro-zone and devalue their currencies! As far as I can see, the IMF is dead set AGAINST this proven remedy to "1930s problems"

 Instead, the IMF is actually a big part of the forced austerity movement! The IMF is part of the group threatening further payouts to Greece unless they do what? INCREASE AUSTERITY!!

The IMF is making Greek negotiations with private creditors much harder by refusing to take any haircuts on their own loans to Greece (the IMF's insistence on being paid in full makes the required private haircut to hit the IMF's 120% debt in 2020 target even harder).

 In other words, as is usually the case in a financial crisis, THE IMF IS PART OF THE PROBLEM.

The only viable alternative to self defeating austerity is exit and devaluation. I believe that IMF economists know this, but the leaders of the organization are more concerned about French and German banks than they are about economic performance and living standards in Greece and Portugal, so we get these ridiculous & hypocritical lectures.

 

Economists at Sea

Economists at sea...

Fourth, we must acknowledge the intimate, inseparable relationship between politics and economics. Modern debates about who caused the financial crisis—­government or the private financial sector—are almost ­nonsensical. We are living in an era of money politics and large powerful interests that influence the laws and regulations and their enforcement. In order to catalyze the evolution of economics, research teams would benefit from multidisciplinary interaction with politics, psychology, anthropology, sociology and history.

This makes sense to me. But then I was never a good enough economist to get a job as an economist...

The culture that is Spain / Another one bites the dust

What the hell is up with Spain? Light bulls' horns on fire and enjoy watching them run around going nuts? To honor some "Saint"?

Well, one bull has done his level best to even up the score:


A flaming-horned bull trampled and fatally gored a man early Saturday during a festival in eastern Spain, an official said. Large balls of flaming wax are traditionally affixed to the beasts' heads before they are let loose to rampage through squares and narrow streets in such festivals. 


 the bull charged the man, gored him and then stamped on his head, causing him "irreversible injuries." 


Many towns in east and northeastern Spain celebrate feasts with "toros embolados," or "flaming bulls," which feature the animals racing around and shaking their heads as a reaction to flames or fireworks attached to or close to their horns. At these regional festivals, flaming-horned bulls are taunted and teased by rowdy crowds in bullrings, town squares or down streets.

C'mon bulls, you got a lot of work left to do!

Early to bed, never to rise?

"And yet while young men's failures in life are not penalizing them in the bedroom, their sexual success may, ironically, be hindering their drive to achieve in life."

 More here.

 Discuss?

Bait & Switch

Here's some early footage of Lebron in action:


 


Hat tip to Mrs. Lebron.

What do you get the jaguar who has everything?

Indoor plumbing, of course!!

Hat tip to Karl de la O

One size fits all

In this excellent interview, Werner Herzog allows that all of his movies could have been appropriately given the same title: "Gazing Into The Abyss".

Austerity & Growth

There is a lot of discussion on the question of whether austerity is growth enhancing or not. While it's an entertaining debate, I get the feeling that the subtext is that European austerity only makes sense if it's growth enhancing, and I don't think that's true.

To my mind, Greece has two choices, default and devalue or continue on a path of ever greater austerity. Why they seem to be choosing option "b" is beyond my comprehension, but given they don't exit the system, what other option do they really have? Obviously they have no monetary levers. Obviously, they cannot borrow to finance further spending "stimulus". Obviously they cannot compel Germany to just pay up or the ECB to apply the monetary level system wide.  Obviously, they are not going to export their way to prosperity in the near term. So it's pretty much austerity uber alles for them.

Italy is in largely the same boat, except their borrowing rates have not hit Grecian heights due to ECB interventions. Their only options are austerity or exit.

As for the US of A, the idea that we are practicing fiscal austerity is risible. You can't even see austerity from where we are currently standing.

Alan Blinder channels St. Augustine

 You know, "Lord, grant me chastity, but not just yet"!

In today's WSJ, Alan writes, "it would be smart to borrow, say, another $500 billion this year and then pay for it, say, 10 times over, with $5 trillion in deficit reduction spread over 10 years—starting, say, in 2014."

People say this all the time, Blinder, Christina Romer, Mark Thoma, but it doesn't make sense. All Congress can commit to doing is what they actually do in the present. Does anyone really think the coming "draconian sequesters" on defense will actually happen?

The "cuts are coming around the corner" language is just boilerplate, designed to inoculate the writer from the charge of fiscal irresponsibility when they advocate increasing current federal spending.

Current Congresses cannot bind future Congresses. If they really want to cut spending, the only way to do it is to (sorry in advance) JUST DO IT in the here and now.

Don't hold your breath.

Hey big mouth!

We Just Kept Looking and Looking for a Connection That was NOT There

Interesting.  No systematic connection between junk food and obesity.

These researchers sat on the result for two years, trying to torture the data to make it come out "right."

Nod to the Blonde.

Best athlete out of Russia since Maria Sharapova!

This crow is the absolute bizzle:

Tumblr of the Day

Pizza Fractals!

Look, This is Not Complicated

Let's spell it out.

If you are invited to go on the Jon Stewart Show, you should go. It will be fun, Jon asks softball questions, it will be great, you will get to talk about your book

If, on the other hand, John Oliver, or Asif Mandvi, or Jason Jones, want to talk to you, just laugh at loud and hang up the phone. Do NOT talk to them. Do not do an interview. Do not even answer questions in writing. They already have an angle. They are smarter than you are, or at least they will seem smarter after they finish editing the interview.

Why do otherwise smart people convince themselves that they are going to be anything other than reamed? Froma Harrop is revealed here to be an unbelievable hypocrite and a self-important fool.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

She just couldn't believe anyone could disagree with her, and be anything but a "terrorist." She even goes so far as to say that that was NOT a metaphor. She meant it literally: disagree with me, and you are a terrorist. Didn't we all make fun of George Bush when he tried that same stupid line?

Now, I have always just thought Froma Harrop was another economically illiterate lefty journalista. Given that she never took any actual courses in college, it's not her fault.

But.... it turns out she is actually a really, really scary lady. Thanks, Jon Stewart, and thanks to John Oliver! Don't ever call me, by the way. I won't answer, John O.

Lagniappe: From Wikipedia.... Harrop is the President of the National Conference of Editorial Writers. One project of the NCEW is the Civility Project, aimed at restoring civility to America's public discourse. Her position was criticized by the Wall Street Journal, which noted the contrast between this role and her comparison of the Tea Party to terrorist groups such as al-Qaida. In her response to the criticism, Harrop stated, "I see incivility as not letting other people speak their piece." She subsequently deleted all the comments from the post and shut down the commenting feature of her blog.

On Computers / WiFi in Class

It is so important to this professor that people only pay attention to him in all his narcissistic glory that he forced the class into a smaller room....

JUST so there is no wifi.

Wouldn't it have been easier to stay in the large class and ban laptops? Or make it possible to jam wifi somehow? It can't be hard.

Or, you could just let the students decide. As I argued before.

Lee Siegel Is An Idiot

You don't have to be an idiot to write for the NY Times.

But it helps. P-Krrog, for example, is certainly not an idiot. But he has to act like one to publish in the Times.

Being an idiot is the only qualification I can see for Lee Siegel writing a column.

Some analysis, from NO MORE MISTER NICE BLOG.

A lagniappe: Here is Mr. Siegel being an idiot on the Daily Show. Now that "Kim Jong Il Looking at Things" won't have any new entries, perhaps someone can have a blog entitled "Lee Siegel Being An Idiot." It would have daily entries.

9 ball, corner pocket!

Hashtag of the day

OccupyNigeria

Darned Tricky Numbers

Sometimes people wonder what kind of people want to write for the lefty bed-wetting press. Why would such a talented person want to "give" so much of themselves, taking a low salary just so they can speak truth to power? Those guys must be VERY good people....

Or perhaps they are just another idiot who got some fraudulent "______ Studies" major. And so they never learned how to calculate percentages or hold a real job. Now they blame the system for how much their little lefty lives suck.

An example:

Survey: Illegal Corporate Campaign Contributions Up 400%

By Alex Seitz-Wald on Jan 12, 2012 at 6:41 pm

In 2009, just 1 percent of respondents to National Business Ethics Survey — a large industry study funded by major corporations like Walmart — said they had witnessed illegal corporate political donations. This year, that number quadrupled to 4 percent. Management-level employees at large, publicly traded companies were most likely to see the illegal activity, with seven percent of senior managers saying they had witnessed it.

If this guy had not majored in International Relations (at Brown, no less, the home of "Studies Studies"), he would know that this is:

(4-1)/1= 3

3 n.e. 4

But of course the actual numbers don't matter. It's the truthiness of the scare tactic that's important.

A complicating factor is that the Dems got FAR more corporate money than the Repubs in 2008. The problem for the bed-wettery is not that corporations can give money. The problem is that corporations can give money to Republicans. THAT cannot be allowed.

Nod to Chateau

Fair Trade Frolics

This is just remarkable. Mr. Overwater did convince me of the importance people on the left attach to good intentions, regardless of whether the consequences are actually good. I think that is a big explanation of the popularity of "fair trade": I am paying more for this, an act of sacrifice and therefore of virtue. The fact that essentially none of the money actually makes it to the farmers is beside the point. I sacrificed, and therefore I am a good person.

But it's bizarre that people actually think the fair trade scam makes food healthier, or that it has fewer calories. Wow. You bedwetters believe that whatever lame secular god you worship will bless you with thinness, because you performed the good work of paying more for regular old coffee that happens to have a "fair trade" label on it.

The “Fair Trade” Effect: Health Halos From Social Ethics Claims

Jonathon Schuldt, Dominique Muller & Norbert Schwarz
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming

Abstract: The authors provide evidence that social ethics claims on food packaging (e.g., fair trade) can promote the misperception that foods are lower-calorie and therefore appropriate for greater consumption. In Study 1, participants evaluating chocolate provided lower calorie judgments when it was described as fair trade — a claim silent on calorie content but signifying that trading partners received just compensation for their work. Further establishing this effect, Study 2 revealed that chocolate was perceived as lower-calorie when a company was simply described as treating its workers ethically (e.g., providing excellent wages and health care) as opposed to unethically (e.g., providing poor wages and no health care) among perceivers with strong ethical food values, consistent with halo logic. Moreover, calorie judgments mediated the same interaction pattern on recommendations of consumption frequency, suggesting that amid the ongoing obesity crisis, social ethics claims might nudge some perceivers to overindulge. Theoretical and applied implications are discussed.

Nod to Kevin Lewis

Romance is Costly?

Does the number of sex partners affect educational attainment? Evidence from female respondents to the Add Health (older version, ungated)

Joseph Sabia & Daniel Rees, Journal of Population Economics, December 2011, Pages 89-118

Abstract: We use data on young women from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to explore the relationship between number of sex partners and educational attainment. Using the average physical development of male schoolmates to generate plausibly exogenous variation in number of sex partners, instrumental variables estimates suggest that number of sex partners is negatively related to educational attainment. This result is consistent with the argument that romantic involvements are time consuming and can impose substantial emotional costs on young women.

Not sure this is right. Not directly a "cost," as much a correlate. Wasting time on promiscuity is dangerous and a sign of poor judgment, maybe also an artificially short time horizon. People with good decision making skills and a longer time horizon just aren't tempted to be promiscuous. This isn't sex, this is NUMBER of sex partners.

So, it's not, "Ya know, I could go to a bar, pick up a guy I've never met, and then do the bouncy-bouncy until daylight. But that would cost me too much time that I should spend studying for my PhD in physical chemistry. I would prefer to go out, of course, but I'll stay home." Rather, someone with ambition would just never consider doing those things. It's not appealing.

What I am trying to say is that the level of appeal of random hook-ups is the same for every woman, not that great. What differs is access to something else, an ambition for a career, which may come from having role models or parental encouragement from a young age. The hook-ups thing is just not that much fun.