Showing posts with label good news for people who love bad news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label good news for people who love bad news. Show all posts

Saturday, August 10, 2013

The incredible shrinking deficit

Cardiff Garcia sends us this cool deficit reduction chart:





If you like your numbers raw, then there's this,

"In dollar terms, the Congressional Budget Office estimates for the July fiscal balance (which will be released next week) suggest that the deficit totaled $722bn in the 12 months ending in July, down from a peak of $1.471trn in December 2009; we now expect the deficit to total $650bn in FY 13 and $550bn in FY14".

Plenty of people are lamenting this show of "austerity" with unemployment still high.

If  we had been better Keynesians in the past, we would have used the "boom and not the bust" for "austerity", and could have run an expansionary policy longer. But in the absence of a proven connection between fiscal stimulus and sustainable job growth (sorry Brad and Larry), and the presence of our high and still rising debt levels and the continual damaging political theatre around debt ceiling breaches, I am fine with this rate of deficit reduction.

What is not so great about the deficit reduction we are getting is that it doesn't address longer run budget issues, and the deficit is projected to start rising again in 2015 and get ugly shortly thereafter.

I'm happy we've reduced war spending and cut the military (at least as a % of GDP). We can do that some more. But I don't see any achievable solution to our long run deficit drivers. People we can't even get chained CPI as the benchmark for social security increases. That was treated like running over grandma with a reindeer.

The good side to me is that our government actually "worked". Politicians saw the huge deficits as a problem and enacted policies to reduce them (at least for a while). The bad side is that the policy process burned tons of trust and political capital without addressing our real, long-run budget problems.


Thursday, September 20, 2012

(bad) news round up

1. Things are still getting worse in Europe. Looks like France is set to join the recession club.

2. Chinese stocks are tanking.

3. Is our sanctions working? Maybe not.

4. People are tweeting about owls. Yikes! We are doomed.


Friday, January 27, 2012

Not good

The advance estimate of real GDP growth for last quarter (2011 q4) is in at 2.8%. This is not so good in a number of ways.

First, "expectations" were for 3%.

Second, over half of the growth came from increased "inventory investment", i.e. the accumulation of unsold goods. 

Third, this number is subject to revision and the direction of revision is frequently downward.

Fourth, real GDP growth in 2011 was substantially lower than it was is 2010! 1.7% vs. 3.0%

Epic Fail!

Fifth, even if we discount points 1-4, 2.8% is a pitiful growth rate for a country coming out of a deep recession with a high unemployment rate and a depressed level of labor force participation.

President Obama should be thanking his deity every day for Mitt and Newt. They are the only reasons he's likely to win re-election with an economy this weak.