People who believe in magic really do believe....

Connecting the Dots: Illusory Pattern Perception Predicts Belief in Conspiracies and the Supernatural
Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Karen Douglas & Clara De Inocencio , European Journal of Social Psychology, forthcoming

Abstract: A common assumption is that belief in conspiracy theories and supernatural phenomena are grounded in illusory pattern perception. In the present research we systematically tested this assumption. Study 1 revealed that such irrational beliefs are related to perceiving patterns in randomly generated coin toss outcomes. In Study 2, pattern search instructions exerted an indirect effect on irrational beliefs through pattern perception. Study 3 revealed that perceiving patterns in chaotic but not in structured paintings predicted irrational beliefs. In Study 4, we found that agreement with texts supporting paranormal phenomena or conspiracy theories predicted pattern perception. In Study 5, we manipulated belief in a specific conspiracy theory. This manipulation influenced the extent to which people perceive patterns in world events, which in turn predicted unrelated irrational beliefs. We conclude that illusory pattern perception is a central cognitive mechanism accounting for conspiracy theories and supernatural beliefs.

What is Dead can never Die: American Austerity Edition

Yesterday, Sir Mathew Yglesias proclaimed that "2014 is the year American austerity came to an end"

Which kind of cracked me up. I guess the syllogism is (1) we had austerity, (2) austerity hurts growth, (3) growth picked up in 2014. (4) Therefore Austerity is over.


Here's the data series from 2000 through q3 of 2014 (and it's the same data Matt is using):

From this graph I concluded one of two things must be true depending on one's definition of austerity.

Either austerity means nominal cuts and we never had any of it, or austerity means cuts relative to trend and we are still savagely in its grasp.

Relative to the 2000-2009 decade trend, total government spending is roughly 35% lower in q3 of 2014 than it should be. Hard to say austerity is over by that metric.

When I tweeted this at Sir Mathew, he responded that it "seemed like semantics". One of us, and it could easily be me, does not know what that word means.