We Get Letters: OKC Edition

SdM writes:
Dallas lost to OKC last night by 1 pt and I think it's bc they can't do math. Replay: 9 secs left: Nowitski gets a free throw and gives Dallas the lead. 1 secs left: Durant makes a 15 ft shot and gives OKC a 1pt lead. 0 secs left: Dallas is unable to get up the floor and shoot. Assume everyone on the floor makes 75% of their free throws and is 50% from the floor. If there's an OT, winner is determined by a coin toss. What do you do if you're Dallas at the 9 second mark?

SdM's answer: Dallas should have fouled, even though they had the lead, with 7 or 8 seconds left. That's obviously stupid, so I told SdM that was stupid. He pathetically tried to defend himself.

Four cases: 1. OKC misses both free throws. Dallas up 1 and has ball with ~8 secs left. 2. OKC makes 1 and misses 1. Unless OKC gets an offensive rebound off a free throw, Dallas has ~ 8 seconds to (2a) win the game on a last shot. If (2b) they miss, they go to OT and have a 50/50 chance. 3. OKC makes both, takes the lead by 1, but Dallas gets the last shot with ~8 secs left. Assuming teams make 50% of their field goals and 75% of free throws, ...

So, take those probabilities as right.

Here is what I came up with:
prob of case #1: .0625 (if two throws are independent)
prob of case #2: .375 (two ways to make one and miss one
prob of case #3: .5625 (again, independent)

case #4: what they actually did. If 50% from the floor is right, Dallas had a 50% chance of winning, with what they did, NOT fouling. No chance of overtime; they win, or lose, depending on whether Durant hits the shot with 1 second left.

If they fouled, Dallas has the following chances (assuming overtime is a coin flip):
A. Case #1, Dallas wins (assume OKC fouls, or not, but there's tool little time left for anything) p(DalWin)=.0625
B. Case #2, Dallas makes basket from floor p(DalWin)=.375*.5= .1875 Case #2, Dallas misses basket from floor, wins in overtime, p(DalWin)=0.09375 Case #2, Dallas misses basket from floor, loses in overtime
C. Case #3, Dallas .5 chance of taking last shot and winning, p(DalWin)=.5 If I have this right, and assuming OKC does not get off reb'd on it's foul shot, and assuming OKC does not foul Dallas, even in case #1, it looks to me like Dallas's chances of winning, if they foul, are .8375, whereas if they don't foul their chances of winning are 50-50.

Is this right? That's not even close, Dallas should foul. Maybe SdM is not so pathetic after all.

And what matters is just that Dallas' chances of winning if they don't foul are only 50-50, and if they do foul their chances are 50-50 to win, EVEN IF OKC makes both free throws, the worst case scenario. But is it really .8375 if you foul, compared to .50 if you don't? I must have missed something.

Big

Kevin Durant was amazing last night. His line, 36 points (on 24 shots), 10 boards, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals, was impressive. But his repeated clutch plays at the end of the game were eye-popping. A three to give the Thunder the lead for good. A leaning jumper as the shot clock expired to extend the lead. Clutch free throws. A shot block and a key rebound.

He did all of this despite being exhausted (he logged 44 minutes and playing the entire second half).

Durant and James Harden owned the 4th quarter and the Thunder won a game in which they were clearly outplayed in the first 36 minutes.

Not sure what KD will have in the tank for tonight's game in San Antonio, but Mrs. Angus and I really enjoyed watching him play last night.

By the way, have you seen Durant's latest commercial?

"I was just so relieved and so happy he didn't write a song about giraffes"!

35 >> 25

Big fun last night in the OKC:

Hyperbolic discounting in the NBA economy

One reason the owners have the edge on the players in the NBA labor dispute is time horizon. I argued earlier that the owners can more easily take the long view.

Another way to say that is that the owners have lower discount rates.

But the problem is even worse than I thought. In an effort to minimize salary losses from the missed games, the players have agreed/insisted to cram 66 games into the rest of the time remaining (I think they are maybe adding a week to the schedule). This will cause teams to have to play 3 days in a row, and some teams to play 5 games in 6 days! This will cause bad ball, and most likely, injuries.

That is a HIGH discount rate the players are exhibiting.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have basketball back in the OKC! I'm just saying that the players' attempt to hold out for future earnings was even more doomed than I had thought.

Krugman in Oklahoma

Alternate titles: "The devil came down to Norman", "We came not to praise Caesar, but to poison him".

Regarding the second alternate title, here is an un-photoshopped picture of the entree from the gala dinner (clic the pic for a more un-appetizing image):

According to my sources, Krugman was Krugman: Insightful and analytical on international economics, predictably partisan on domestic politics.

Bad news for Tyler: PK confessed to not having read "The Great Stagnation", though he said he was a regular reader of "Marginal Revolution".

Good news for rich people: PK said that had he been president, he would have let all the "Bush tax cuts" expire, even though it would harm the economy, because he feels that it was the last chance to ever get rid of the cuts for the rich. He fears they will now be permanent.

While endorsing more stimulus and more infrastructure spending, he dissed high speed rail, saying it should be a very low priority at best.

All in all, he did an hourlong Q&A with students and some Econ faculty, then the "dinner" and a speech. Here is a write-up of the Q&A from the student paper.

Bottom line: I am so so so glad I went to the Thunder game!

The People have spoken

It was no contest.

I'll be going to see Blake Griffin terrorize Jeff Green tonight with a friend, while Mrs. A goes to Krugmanfest.

I'll try to get a guest blogger to cover Krugmania for us.

Griffin or Krugman: You make the call

People, here's my situation.

Tomorrow at OU, Paul Krugman is speaking. There's an "informal" meeting with econ students and faculty, then a dinner and a speech.

I have tickets.

Tomorrow at the OKC Arena at about the same time, Blake Griffin and the LA Clippers will be playing the Thunder.

I have tickets.

Due to the great stagnation, we have no kind of transporter technology that can solve my problem.

I gotta pick.

Que hago?