Viva Gridlock!

Can we has more gridlock, pleeees? All us turkeys here at KPC sure HOPE so! Credit: Signe, PDI
Happy Thanksgiving, and Happy Holidays, from the grinning gridlock brothers!

Say hello to my little friend

(as always, click the pic for a more glorious image)

In addition, Gallop polling shows a 10 point lead for Republicans in a "generic" congressional ballot (supposedly the largest such lead ever in a midterm campaign).

Just to be clear, the "friend" in my title is gridlock and NOT the Republicans. If there was a Republican Prez, I'd want a Dem Congress.

If only I lived in Bridgeport Nebraska....

....then my non-voting might matter!

BRIDGEPORT, Neb. – A deck of cards and a bit of luck helped decide who will likely be the next sheriff of Morrill County.

The nine of hearts Milo Cardenas drew Monday beat Travis Petersen's six of spades, giving Cardenas the Republican nomination for sheriff. Since no Democrats ran for sheriff, Cardenas, the police chief in Bridgeport, is likely to win in November's election.

"I knew it was going to be close, but I didn't expect to be this close," Cardenas said.

The two men agreed to cut a deck of cards after Monday's re-count confirmed that both finished at the top of a four-man race with 379 votes after balloting ended last Tuesday. State law requires tied elections to be settled by a game of chance.

Cardenas said deciding the race with a card game seemed a little crazy but also seemed like the best option.

"I felt more comfortable with the deck of cards. That way you pick your own destiny," Cardenas said.

Brandt shuffled the cards seven times and spread them out on a table before the candidates drew cards simultaneously.

"People wanted to revote and do a lot of things, but unfortunately, Nebraska law is very clear," Morrill County Clerk Kathy Brandt said.

Brandt said none of the candidates who lost in the primary are allowed to run in the general election.

"For all those people that didn't vote, they should realize that one vote does make a difference," Brandt said.

Two points about the Morrill County Clerk, people.

(1) "unfortunately, Nebraska law is very clear"?? WTF? given that people wanted to "do a lot of things", I think it's very fortunate that the law was clear.

(2) Ms. Brandt also seems to have a very low bar for defining "making a difference"! Were these two Republican candidates for Morrill County Sheriff really so different from each other?

another one bites the dust

Man, people. Democratic politicians are, how shall I put this politely, PUSSWEILLERS!!

Evan Bayh is the latest to announce that he won't face the voters this fall.

Will the last Demo pol left please turn out the lights?

While I think it's very funny how little fight appears left in the Dems, please don't think I am pleased about the possible return of the Republicans. Heaven forfend. I am kind of a "pox on both your houses" guy. As is well documented in this blog, I love gridlock!

  

As goes Carolina, so goes Costa Rica?

As loyal KPC readers know, our man Mungowitz was the Libertarian candidate in the most recent NC governor's race. While he clearly succeeded in his goals of (1) getting his message out, (2) getting the LP automatically on the next election's ballot, and (3) getting investigated by the election commission, alas, he did not win.

Spin forward to last Sunday where there was a Libertarian, Otto Guevara, running for president of Costa Rica (I am not making this up). He didn't win either. No word yet on whether NolanChart.com endorsed or savaged Otto.

It was the third time Otto ran. The first time he got 1.7%, the second, 8.4%, and this time he got 20.8%.

I'm just sayin'.......

 

We Get Letters: Gubmint ID Edition

A little while ago, we heard the first installment of the "No ID why yew cain't git service" saga. The second edition is even better, or worse but funnier, or something. I'll let our intrepid correspondent tell the story:


Return one week later to ID office for second attempt to pick-up new and improved gubmint standardized ID.

Me: Hi, I'm here to pick up my ID. I have a 10:30 appt (It's 10:15)

Office Drone: Have a seat, someone will call you.

(While sitting there and waiting, an employee/father asks them to register his already existing ID to work on the electronic lock at the entrance to the child care center so he can get in to drop-off and pick-up his kid. He is informed immediately (in a dismissive tone) that this is something they can not do, and they have never done it before. When he asks (rather politely) why other employees cards work on the doors, a supervisor comes over and tells employee/ father that he understands the request, but clearly they can not help him. The father (still being polite) asks them to call the child care center, who sent him there, to ask what to do. They tell him to take a seat).

45 minutes later:

OD: Why are you here?

ME: I had a 10:30 appt. (now almost 11)

OD: Who are you?

ME: Tell them I made an appt. on the on-line system to pick-up ID.

OD: We don't have your ID, so why are you here?

ME: Tell them I got an email saying to come in, show her copy of email, she tells me to follow her.

OD: Checks computer in cubicle, tells me my finger prints came back as unreadable, so you have to do them again.

ME: Why doesn't the email indicate this? It says my ID is ready.

OD: We don't control the emails that this office sends out.

ME: Putting fingers on scanner and watching prints come up on monitor: "Why didn't my electronic fingerprints work last time? Wouldn't your computer tell you if they were unreadable?"

OD: There's a glitch in the system, happens all the time.

ME: So what happens now, I did this 2 months ago?

OD: I don't know.

So I ask to see a supervisor, and following lead of employee/ father, introduce myself and explain situation and am very polite.

Super: Checks computer, says that the agency that checks the prints couldn't use them, so now back at beginning of process.

Me: What happens if these prints don't work?

Super: Then we run your name through the system instead.

Me: How long does that take?

Super: That only takes a few minutes, just a click of a button and it runs it through.

I must have had a look of absolute astonishment on my face, because after a long pause the Super sits back in her chair and sighs. She tells me that after 9/11 Homeland Security wanted to centralize the gubmint ID process, so individual federal agencies no long control it. Now it's spread out among several security agencies, and after a three year delay, and millions in costs overruns, they just started to use it. The problem is that no one knows how it's supposed to work, and as of yet it hasn't worked for anyone they've tried. So I should keep my fingers crossed and hope that someone figures it out.

I thanked her and was leaving when saw the employee/ father still sitting there. I spent remainder of the day looking for work in the private sector.

Let's put them in charge of health care!

We Get Letters!

We get letters. This from a stalwart reader and commenter, who shall remain anonymous....

Get an email to pick up my new and improved ID for which I was fingerprinted and photographed 6 weeks ago. Email says to go online and schedule a day/place/time to pick it up. Show up at designated gubmint building, go to security, they call the ID office to ask if they should let me in.

ID office says my ID is not ready. I ask why the email says it is in fact ready to be picked up, and the official website let me make an appointment, if it is not actually ready.

They tell me they have no control over what the email says or the on-line system, and I should have remembered that they told me that 6 weeks ago when I went in for the fingerprinting. Therefore it is my fault and maybe it will be ready by next week, but I can't call and check and will only know when I show up to pick it up.

Your tax $ at work.

Now, this person works at an actual government agency, one you have heard of, one that has a budget in the billions. Wow.

The Pin up boy takes it down

They are calling the Mass. special Senate election for Scott Brown!

Yeah, it's funky like that

People, I submit that this is an almost perfect metaphor for our Congress, except it should be the blue half that is bigger!

Obesity: Public Health Problem or Basic Human Right?

We all know about the health issues that come with obesity. Increased risk of diabetes, cardiac issues, some cancers, liver and gall bladder problems among others.

What I did not know until today is that there is a publication called "The International Journal of Obesity", and it publishes articles about things like the problem of weight discrimination (of course it also publishes articles like "Effect of dairy and non-dairy calcium on fecal fat excretion in lactose digester and maldigester obese adults", but that doesn't get picked up by NPR)!

I certainly am not in favor of discrimination, but I guess I have enough Puritan/Calvinist DNA still running through me to worry about a slippery slope here.

On the public health side of things, we want to get out the message that obesity is bad, but we somehow still need to treat obese individuals with respect and fairness.

RTL-Day Minus 4: Coordination Games and Bastiat

From 3-news, Kiwi-land, regarding the decision of the fake "Cabinet Meeting" on Tuesday....

Roina Vavatau, an opponent to the change, says there should be a delay in implementing the rules.

“We wanted to have a delay since we were not successful with the court case,” he says. We had anticipated that the best that we want to request from the government is to delay it further.”

Mr Vavatau’s request was ignored and on Monday the rules will change, but some villages near the main port of Sa'vaii are vowing to continue to enforce driving on the right hand side - even if only on the one kilometre stretch of road in their village. Protest organisers say the change is being implemented in an undemocratic way, and some village chiefs or matai's will ignore the rules.

Samoan Community Leader Litea Ah Hoi says the village chiefs want to maintain there local authority. “They are very proud to retain their position of authority even to the extent of defying central government,” she says.

Samoan leader Fa'amatuainu Tino Pereia says the change is positive for Samoa. “I think for Samoa it will harmonise Samoa’s driving patterns with the rest of the region,” he says.

“Not only that but also with the two significant countries of the region, Australia, and New Zealand which will then allow Samoa to have some sort of mobility within its own country.”

Mr Tino Pereira says September 7 will get off to a bumpy start but the majority off the 160,000 will eventually see sense in the change.

Many amazing claims in these quotes. First, the idea of a "region" for an island is a bit odd. You cannot drive from NZ or OZ, or Hawaii, to Samoa (and it's the same distance, approximately, with OZ being the furthest away.) Thus, by far the cheapest cars are the CARS YOU ALREDY HAVE. All of these are Left Hand Drive cars.

There are NO car-carrying ferries from OZ, NZ,or HI. Not one. And shipping cars 4000 miles is about 10% more expensive than shipping them 1000, on a bulk carrier. Just not a consideration. The expensive part is loading and unloading.

So, "mobility within its own country" suggests staying with the existing system.

As for "maintaining there local authority" (that is THEIR typo, not mine), this is coordination game, AND a power struggle. But if everyone else switches, the threat to stay on the right side of the road is not credible.

Finally, I am reminded of Bastiat's famous observations on the broken window, chapter 1 in "That Which is Seen and Not Seen." Bastiat addresses the argument that a broken window is a good thing, because it creates new business for the glazier. Bastiat goes on to say, "what will you say, disciples of good M. F. Chamans, who has calculated with so much precision how much trade would gain by the burning of Paris, from the number of houses it would be necessary to rebuild?"

It is true enough that forcing people to buy new cars, and new buses, and make other changes, will create the appearance of economic activity. What we won't see is the business, and work, and activity, that WOULD have taken place without this ridiculous in-kind tax.

RTL-Day Minus 13: Um....Why?

To follow our lead (lede?) story....Samoa plans to switch from driving on the right, to driving on the left, just 13 days from now.



KPC readers want to know: WTF?

Some arguments for the switch--
1. The main reason for Samoa's switch is that two of its biggest neighbors, Australia and New Zealand, drive on the left-hand side, whereas Samoa currently drives on the right, as in the U.S. By aligning with Australia and New Zealand, the prime minister says, it will be easier for poor Samoans to get cheap hand-me-down cars from the 170,000 or so Samoans who live in those two countries. It could also help more people escape tsunamis, says [Prime Minister] Tuilaepa.

2. In a TV address about the road change last week, the prime minister warned that "the only thing to fear is fear itself." [Ed: Now, THAT is a good one. Unfortunately, the PM also appears to think that people should fear tsunamis (see #1, above). So, the only things we have to fear are fear itself, and tsunamis....and sharks. Amongst our fears are....]

3. [The prime minister] listed a series of other steps, including declaring Sept. 7 and 8 national holidays. The government has also set up a "training area" near a sports stadium where drivers can practice the fine art of driving on the left side of the road.

Tomorrow: The other side speaks out, with arguments against.

(The view from Oz....Can anyone find a web site for "People Against Switching Sides", or PASS?)

RTL-Day minus 14: Please Sir, Can I Have Samoa?

(...and a one, two, one two three four)

So....just 14 days from now, Samoa will be the most recent nation to change sides of the road for driving. Interesting article, in WSJ.

And, as always when a nation decides to do something ridiculous, we at KPC will be reporting the progress, or the giant cluster firetruck, every day.

Right to Left Day - 14: Here is a chart of those nations that have made the change in the recent, and not even that recent, past.... (Credit: Same WSJ article)

KPC: Your source for going the wrong way, worldwide....

Gordon Tullock Uber Alles

Gelman, Silver and Edlin pay homage to the man:

"One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. "

Gee, I hope there are some other motivations for y'all.

Each major party says the other is unfit to rule. Both are correct.

Anonyman muses:

If you controlled congress for 12 of the past 14 years, would you think it's a good move to go after the guy that's been in office for 1 month and accuse him of wasting taxpayer's $$$$ ?

The source of his (be)muse(ment)--

Remember, Anonyman is, or was until recently, a Republican.

Reminds me of the H.L. Mencken quote I used today on the radio:

In a democracy, the two major parties spend the majority of their time and energy trying to inform an ignorant electorate that the other party is unfit to rule. And both do that admirably. And both are right.

A pox on BOTH their Houses, and their Senates.

Angus Deaton goes Nuclear

"I shall argue that in ideal circumstances, randomized evaluations of projects are useful for obtaining a convincing estimate of the average effect of a program or project. The price for this success is a focus that is too narrow to tell us “what works” in development, to design policy, or to advance scientific knowledge about development processes. Project evaluation using randomized controlled trials is unlikely to discover the elusive keys to development, nor to be the basis for a cumulative research program that might progressively lead to a better understanding of development."

"This argument applies a fortiori to instrumental variables strategies that are aimed at
generating quasi-experiments; the value of econometric methods cannot be assessed by
how closely they approximate randomized controlled trials. Following Cartwright (2007a, b), I argue that evidence from randomized controlled trials has no special priority. Randomization is not a gold standard because “there is no gold standard,” Cartwright (2007a.) Randomized controlled trials cannot automatically trump other evidence, they do not occupy any special place in some hierarchy of evidence, nor does it make sense to refer to them as “hard” while other methods are “soft”. These rhetorical devices are just that; a metaphor is not an argument."

You can read the whole thing here. Hat tip to The B(l)at(t)man

Dems standing down in Minn?

As foreshadowed here yesterday. Incitatus, ooops I mean Al Franken, is withdrawing a boatload of challenges to ballots in the Minnesota Senate race. So maybe it's 42 people to read out loud from the phonebook for the next two years.

Gridlock lives!

Well, kind of, anyway. The Republicans managed to capture the runoff in Georgia, denying the Dems a filibuster proof majority in the World's Greatest Deliberative Body. Maybe now that the dream is gone the Dems will ease up in Minnesota. They can't really want Al Franken in the Senate can they? Isn't that eerily close to Caligula making his horse a Senator?