So, the Senate will be 50 R - 50 D (no more Jeffords as an "Independent.") The tie will be broken by Vice President Dick Cheney. An awful state of affairs. Like kissing your sister, only she calls the cops.
The House? The range I have seen:
Guru List:
Congressional Quarterly: 212-199-24
Charlie Cook: 223-197-15
Stu Rothenberg: 237-192-6
Larry Sabato: 232-203
Electoral-vote.com: 241-193-1
Votemaster: 235-200
(source here)
Now, I have been saying 223-225 D for sure, but have been reluctant to go up from there.
The Guru totals above assume, for example, that Hayes loses to Kissell in the NC 8th. I'm not convinced. It could happen, but I have doubts.
And, if Kissell does win, then that is a bellwether. My 225 will be low. Because the set of things that would have to be true, about a national swing, for Hayes to lose in that district, are pretty extreme.
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