In classical spatial theory, the challenger should always win, right? Incumbent occupies a space in a multidimensional policy space; for nearly any configuration of preferences, that means the win set of the incumbent location is non-empty.
Proof:
"A woman who died two months ago won a county commissioner's race in Jerauld
County [South Dakota] on Tuesday. Democrat Marie Steichen, of Woonsocket,
got 100 votes, defeating incumbent Republican Merlin Feistner, of
Woonsocket, who had 64 votes. Jerauld County Auditor Cindy Peterson said she
believes the county board will have to meet to appoint a replacement for
Steichen. Peterson said she'll check with the state's attorney to be sure
that's the process. Peterson said voters knew Steichen had died. 'They just
had a chance to make a change, and we respect their opinion.'" [AP]
So, even a dead challenger can beat an incumbent. Spatial theory rules! Green and Shapiro can BITE me!
(nod to KL for the reference, and to SdM for the interpretation)
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