Tuesday, November 07, 2006

News from the front

A report, from anonyman:

I've been monitoring polls in Northern Va. It's been a "presidential turnout" so far today according to every polling official I talked to. I don't think this bodes well for Macacawitz.

Well, well. If MT, MO, and VA really do all go Dem, then it's 51-49 with the Senate flying a D flag. Hard not to be happy. Given that the R win in Tennessee was based on an ad that did everything but mention "Big buck negroes, chasing after your white women..."

Heard on the Quad

I'm walking on the quad at Duke, leaving the Perk. Four young women talking in a cluster. Imagine a kind of Dopler effect in the following, as I walk past, and hear the following snippet:

"I can't believe she called on her like that."

"She always calls people out; I hate that."

"She calls on you if you make eye contact! It's terrible."

"But if you are looking down, she'll call on you. And she wants you to do the reading."

"I know! Such a witch!"

"I look almost at her, but a little off to the left. Stare like you are thinking. You want to look interested, but not too interested. That way, she won't call on you. She never calls on me."

And, by now I am out of earshot, receding. Feel free not to take any of my classes, ladies. I expect you to have done the readings, too.

Rumbling, Mumbling, Tumbling....

1. Rumors of high turnout, in Chatanooga and in the Commonwealth . Bad for Repubs. Folks don't get up out of their chairs to go out in the rain to vote for the party in power.

2. Ky. poll worker charged with assault, interfering with electionfrom Stephen Bach, CNN Washington Bureau--> LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -- A poll worker was arrested Tuesday and charged with assault and interfering with an election for allegedly choking a voter and pushing the voter out the door, an official said.Election officials called police, and the voter wanted to file charges, said Paula McCraney, a spokeswoman for the Jefferson County Clerk. "That about tops off the day," McCraney said.It wasn't immediately clear what sparked the altercation. The name of the poll worker was not released and a Louisville police spokesman did not immediately return calls seeking comment. Posted 11/07/2006 12:49:00 PM (CNN)

3. Don't leave home without it, Guv!--> ATLANTA (CNN) -- South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford probably wishes he checked his pockets before heading out the door this morning.Sanford was turned away from his polling place as cameras were rolling because he forgot his voter registration card. Sanford went to vote at Sullivan Island Elementary School near his family home, but the photo-op went awry as the governor began looking though his wallet. "I don't have the blue card with me," he said.Smiling sheepishly, Sanford called home to get the numbers, but officials told him he had to present the card itself. Sanford then went to a nearby voter registration office to be issued a new card, and finally was able to cast his ballot."This is want you want," Sanford said, praising the workers for doing their job. "I admire her; she's being conscientious." -- CNN Senior National Editor Steve Brusk (CNN)

Monday, November 06, 2006

prediction

So, the Senate will be 50 R - 50 D (no more Jeffords as an "Independent.") The tie will be broken by Vice President Dick Cheney. An awful state of affairs. Like kissing your sister, only she calls the cops.

The House? The range I have seen:

Guru List:
Congressional Quarterly: 212-199-24
Charlie Cook: 223-197-15
Stu Rothenberg: 237-192-6
Larry Sabato: 232-203
Electoral-vote.com: 241-193-1
Votemaster: 235-200
(source here)

Now, I have been saying 223-225 D for sure, but have been reluctant to go up from there.

The Guru totals above assume, for example, that Hayes loses to Kissell in the NC 8th. I'm not convinced. It could happen, but I have doubts.

And, if Kissell does win, then that is a bellwether. My 225 will be low. Because the set of things that would have to be true, about a national swing, for Hayes to lose in that district, are pretty extreme.

The State of Things

My good friends at WUNC were kind enough to pause, in the middle of their annual NPR-style fund drive, to chat for an hour on "The State of Things."

Their web site, if you want to contribute, and haven't yet. SCUM!

The MP3 of the interview (long! 53 mins).

Frank Stasio's page. He's the host, and a fine fellow. Very fair and able to separate his own views (which tend toward...well, toward not exactly like mine, to say the least) and the story being told by the person being interviewed. A credit to public radio, that Frank.

Finally, their blog. That big hunky Dave DeWitt and I are having a dispute about "running the gauntlet." I claim it has to be "gantlet," and he of course says, "yo mama!" My authority can be found here....