In defense of United Airlines

OK people, before we get started, yes, UA should have raised the compensation until they got enough volunteers. And yes, the cop should have found a less brutal way to get the one pax who wouldn't comply with getting bumped off the plane. That cop should be in big trouble.

Now let's get to it.

Can we talk about the recalcitrant pax? What a jerk! Refuses to comply with an entirely legal request from the flight crew. Holds up the plane and all the other passengers because he is too important to get bumped. Refuses to comply with the cops. Causes hours of delay and screws things up for potentially 100s of people down the line.

He's the villain in this case, not UA.

Again, don't get me wrong. I don't like UA. Don't like flying them. And they should have raised the compensation to clear the market.

But, the noncompliant pax here can only be described as a mega-douche.  This incident has no bearing on my decision of whether or not use use UA when I travel. I know I can get bumped, and I'm prepared to live with it. Everyone should know this: you can get bumped even if you are a "VIP".

Plus I already know the cops these days are likely to do any old thing to us citizens, so in no way would I escalate any airline pissing contest to a cop pissing contest.

That guy screwed over hundreds of people I guess because he believed the law didn't apply to him.

He's the opposite of a hero.

This week's sign of the Apocalypse

Were people asking him to? Did Rand Paul insinuate that he could? Is a time machine the only way to fix mistakes? Does not having a time machine absolve one from any responsibility for their actions?

People, if that crawl-line is true, why do we even have a government at all?

If Grandma had wheels we could end this recession!

People, I just can't take it anymore. I can't stick my fingers in my ears and cover my eyes and avoid dealing with the "lack of government jobs is holding back the recovery" BS any longer. The one that pushed me over the edge was from the usually excellent Neil Irwin at Wonkblog (hat tip to Mark Thoma):

 One of the reasons for quiet optimism about the economy over the last few months has been the possibility that state and local governments have finished their long retrenchment and that government hiring might soon contribute to job creation. 

 Never mind. 

 From July 2008 to January 2013, the sector shed more than 737,000 jobs. Had the jobs merely been maintained, the unemployment rate would be as much has half a percentage point lower. Indeed, the state and local pullback is one significant reason that this recovery has been weaker than those in the past.

 Gentle readers, I humbly submit to you the case that in all likelihood, it's the weak recovery that has caused the state and local pullback, not the other way around!

We have had a much worse recession than previous ones, along with a crash of housing prices. State and local governments are fully funded by tax revenues, and at the local level, property tax revenues are a big factor.

So it's entirely likely that the size and nature of this "great recession" has caused state and local government employment to be very weak compared to previous recoveries.

Irwin (and countless others) are making the same mistake as taking Rogoff-Reinhart's numbers and claiming high debt slows growth, when there is a clear case for the opposite view, that slow growth creates high debt.

Exercises like, "if this sector had done this, then the economy would have done that" are just meaningless. They are the equivalent of "if grandma had wheels she'd be a bicycle", but with fancy charts.

Causality is not inherently ideological, though appeals to causal problems often seem to be.

between assad and a hard place

I am really confused, so I thought I'd try to work things out in this post and get some help from our always astute commenters.

Months ago BHO said chemical weapons were a red line and warned Assad not to use them.

Recently, according to BHO, Assad did just that.

Now, virtually everyone I know is going nuts, vociferously objecting to a strike against Assad.

I don't get it. To me, if you are against US military retaliation for the use of chemical weapons, the time to go nuts was months ago when BHO said what he said.

Given that he said it, with no take back, what the hell else is he supposed to do but strike Assad?

Now sure, he's making a complete bollox of it, and it is likely to be militarily weak and ineffective, but really, he has no choice but to do it. What's he supposed to do, say, "LOL, I was just kidding. Gas away, my friend."

So I don't understand why people waited until now to go nuts.

Maybe they think BHO is pulling a Bush-Cheney and fibbing about the use of chemical weapons?

God help me, but I think that's unlikely. BHO clearly doesn't really want to do this, so I think the evidence is likely pretty strong (NB: Jeff Sachs disagrees).

Maybe people think that BHO and by extension US foreign policy already has zero credibility, so it doesn't matter if BHO walks this back?

Certainly many people I know are 140 character mocking the argument that US credibility is at stake. But BHO has also told the ayatollah that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable. If he doesn't follow through with respect to Assad, it certainly won't help his efforts to keep the ayatollah out of Club Nuke, will it? And that's a club we don't want the ayatollah in, do we?

So while I would not have ever gone about it the way BHO has, I do think that chemical weapons use deserves a strong sanction (not necessarily military though), and given where BHO has put us (see post title), I think he has no choice but to strike Assad.

BHO should have had a response prepared for this eventuality before he ever talked about the red line.  He was reckless and arrogant to think his words would not be tested. But it is what it is and we are where we are......

What's your solution? Tell me in the comments.

Robin Hoods....sort of

So, these kids in Keene, NH are going to have to face (at least) civil charges.

For harassing meter persons in the course of their meter duties.

Excerpt from the story: Members of the group place cards under windshield wipers that read, "Your meter expired; however, we saved you from the king's tariffs, Robin Hood and his Merry Men. Please consider paying it forward," and includes an address where donations can be sent. 

An interesting question:  can citizens legally follow law officers and taunt them?  Repeatedly?  To such an extent that the law officers quit, or become ill from the stress?

(Problem:  It's not clear those things will actually happen.  But, suppose, for the sake of argument, that that is what is happening.  It makes the case a more interesting problem.)

I guess I lean towards "no."  This is a protest, yes, I see that.  But are they seriously protesting fees for parking on city streets?  Here is the Keene city parking web site.

A video, from local Boston CBS station.    Call me a cynic, but my suspicion is that this is what is going on.

1.  Some of the RH's have in fact been aggressive and loud.  And it is quite possible that there has been overt "surveillance," as alleged by the meter guy who says the RH's were watching his family. 
2.  The city is "losing" a lot of money.  In fact, the city is losing enough that it has trouble justifying paying the meter persons.
3.  #2 is motivating the city to trump up charges based on #1, to try to harass and intimidate the RH's through the legal system, using lawyers and scare tactics.
4.  In short, and as usual, the state is actually doing something that if private citizens did it would be illegal.  The cute thing about this is example is that the state is actually accusing the private citizens of doing just. that. thing.  The state constantly conducts surveillance, harasses people, takes pictures of public gatherings, and makes threats.  The difference is that the state is not a bunch of skinny teenagers.  The state has guns.
5.  The state's job is not to protect "us," whatever that means.  The state's job is to protect the state.  I expect that the state will do its job.

Nod to Jeremy B.

Like a Scene from Chicago

In the play/movie "Chicago," there are the female murder-felons competing for attention.

Here is a version of that, only even more tasteless.   Jodi, Casey, Amanda:  Who'd You Rather?

You won't find stuff like this on BrendanNyhan.com, folks!

Thanks to Angry Alex, who always asks the important questions.

Nothing to add

Nothing to add to this little gem.  The headline says it all, but it's worth savoring, like fresh hot pancakes on a cold winter day.

Why Does Canada Have a Maple Syrup Cartel?

Nod to Tommy the Tenured Brit.

Tax farming, Chinese style

Apparently there is at least one city in China where people routinely litter, spit in public and break traffic laws (oh Shaoyang, you know I'm talking about you). This particular city was also short of employees and cash to fight the problems.

Their solution? Hire 1000 senior citizens to patrol the streets and LET THEM KEEP 80% of the ticket revenue they generate?

Can anyone guess what happened?

Yep, those lucky seniors wrote a mountain of tickets.

Can anyone guess who's mad?

Yep, the scofflaws.

I love this quote:

“Many of us depend on motorcycles to get around, but they’re now giving us tickets for not wearing a helmet, for not having insurance, or for not carrying our licenses,” complained the clerk, who would give only her surname, Li. “None of us dare drive our motorcycles anymore — it’s just too risky.”

Apparently, complying with the laws is just totally out of the question?

The only thing the city did wrong here was that they are paying the seniors $70 some dollars a month. They should have auctioned off the positions, making people pay up front for the right to write tickets and keep 80% of the revenue.

football vs. football

Nice piece in NY Magazine by Will Leitch on the morality of football. Quick quote:

Forget your own kid playing football. The ­question is whether anyone’s kid should.

Here's the full medal count from the Olympics. What single medal do you think created the most joy in the home country of the winner(s)? My money is on Mexico's gold in men's soccer!

And speaking of medals, the first medal revocation has taken place. A female Belarusian shot-putter has lost her gold medal for juicing.

CYA

Interwebs are buzzing over Peter Doyle's IMF resignation letter.

I have to say I'm not too impressed.

I know, I am a huge IMF critic. I know, pretty much everything he says is true.

But people, he took the very remunerative and tax free salary for 20 years!!!.

And then blasts everyone and proclaims himself "ashamed" of the organization.

Did it really take him that long to figure it out?

I'm guessing that, after 20 years of "service", he'll be getting and keeping a nice pension too.

Plus he was not exactly a low level drone. He was high enough up to be considered part of the problem in my opinion.

It's the economics version of a deathbed conversion;  work for the devil for 20 years and then see the light at the very end.

Nice job, Pete. You have a future in politics for sure.

Possibly the worst cover of all time

Because Mrs. Angus is addicted to passionfruit iced tea, I now frequently go into Starbucks. Today I heard the most hideous cover of a great song I've heard in my half century plus on the planet.

It's Julia Stone, trying to sing like Joanna Newsom, covering the National's "Bloodbuzz Ohio"

Here's the original:




and here's the cover:





Curse you Starbucks and your delicious shaken iced tea!!

Darwin Award Prediction

So, here is the first paragraph, verbatim, of a crime story from Portland, Oregon.

A man who was intoxicated and masturbating to pornography when he drove a stolen car through the crime scene tape surrounding the homicide of a teen-age boy last year will not have to register as a sex offender.

Okay, there was a lot going on there.  Make sure you got all the pieces.  Drunk. Masturbating while staring at pornography. While driving.  Driving a stolen car. Right through a big yellow "crime scene" tape. Area swarming with local and state constabulary, all carrying guns. Looks like this:

But the judge let him off pretty easy.  Because the guy wasn't texting.  THEN there would have been trouble.

Sounds a future Darwin Award, maybe 2014.  Oh, and with a grateful nod to Raoul.

Tied to the whippin' post

This is a pretty amazing table:

Let's break it down:

1. I guess Mustafa Kemal really did have some influence.

2. Pakistan and Egypt are seriously messed up places.

3. Those numbers do not conform to the pleasant image of Jordan that I have in my head.

Hat tip to Roving Bandit.

I think I'm in trouble

Here's an unbelievable story from San Francisco. A husband goes missing, the wife never reports it to the cops, then in February, the husband's body turns up buried underneath a new barbeque the wife built in the backyard (Jimmy Hoffa style). Today, it is announced that no charges will be filed against the wife!

I am now viewing Mrs. Angus's proposal for us to rebuild and extend our backyard deck in a whole new light.

They Knew This Was Going to Happen

This is just inexplicable.

“Is fortunetelling a crime? Of course, fortunetelling is not a crime,” prosecutor Laurence Bardfeld said in court recently. But promising to return large sums of money, and failing to do so, constitutes fraud, Bardfeld argued.

Yes, I think the prosecutor is right about that.

And, this: Bestselling romance novelist Jude Deveraux has been identified as one of the Marks’ clients, and she alone paid the family nearly $20 million, according to court documents. Deveraux declined to comment to The Miami Herald, citing the pending case, but in the acknowledgements section of her book Scarlet Nights, in which several characters were based on the Markses, she specifically praised retired Fort Lauderdale Police economics crimes detective Charles Stack, calling him a “true hero.”

Well, Mr. Stack may be a true hero. But Ms. Deveraux is a true moron. $20 million? I want to announce my own psychic services: Angus and I will make up a bunch of stupid sh** about the future (we are ECONOMISTS! IT'S EASY for us!), and we will do it for just $5 million. We'll call the service "Kids Prefer Cash."

Please leave a comment with your contact information. Clerks are on call.

(Nod to the Blonde; I think SHE knew this was going to happen. But then she's psychotic.)

Dance band on the Titanic

Oh my. Yet another story about economists behaving badly. This time it's Bruno and the Frey-ettes. Multiple self-plagiarism plus possible more traditional plagiarism or at the least incredibly sloppy literature checking.

Olaf has the full story here.

The cliff notes version is that Frey et. al basically published the same paper 4 times in different journals without any of the 4 referencing or making note of the existence of the others.

Further, there are multiple previous papers that use the same data, similar techniques and draw similar conclusions. None of them are cited in any of the Frey et. al papers.

The econ job rumors site has a huge thread on the Frey affair as well.

Photo of the day

(clic the pic for a more glorious perp walk)

People, who will join me in contributing to a fund to purchase razors and decent neckties for the NYPD??