Wow!! Doug Hibbs basically calls the election for Mittens!
Here is the money quote:
"according to the Bread and Peace model per capita real income growth rates must average out at nearly 6 percent after 2012:q2 for Obama to have a decent chance of re-‐election."
You can get to the whole paper from here (and obviously a hat tip goes to Brendan).
Beyond this bombshell, the paper is well worth reading as Hibbs excoriates his competitors for using ad-hoc and ex-post dummy variables as well as endogenous approval ratings as explanatory variables in their vote-share equations.