Depressing Jobs

Providing aggressively bad service and being rude to everyone results in low job satisfaction.  The only thing that's surprising about that is that anyone is surprised.  You have to sympathize, I admit:  knowing that every day you are going to waste a huge amount of money and provide terrible service would make it hard to have much job satisfaction...

Jobs and depression

The Atlantic story

The actual study

Make Room

So, men were once supposed to give their seat to a woman.

But that was condescending and infantilizing.  So now men are jerks for not making room for women.

Of course, men are perfectly happy to say "Excuse me" and just sit down.  The guy will scoot over.  But women think they shouldn't have to ask, and should be treated special without asking.

Maybe we should have a norm that men should be more considerate of women.  But of course THAT would be creepy, if a guy makes room for a woman but doesn't make room for a guy.

This was interesting, I thought.  A woman who had spread her stuff out on the seat got mad when a guy sat down.  Because he should ask first.  Though he did ask first, and her headphones were too loud to hear.  She injected race into it.  Or was race really the deciding factor? (She does make a good point:  if a black man touched a white woman's purse, cops would be called.  I had not considered that, and that's why you have to read stuff...) 

The narrower point is that guys generally ask people to make room, and it is more like a command.  Make. Room.

Then When They Came for the Metro, There WERE No Buses...

So, Santiago de Chile once had a mass transit system with substantial redundancies, parallel routes on private buses.  If the Metro went down there was some other way of getting around.

Redundancy is a good thing, for engineers (in other words, smart people), but to planners (i.e., morons) seems ...well, redundant.

So they outlawed the redundancy and built a hub-and-spoke system.  You had to take a bus, take the Metro, and then take a bus.  Using public buses.  I told the story here.

Things had been getting a bit better.  (Although....)

But now (segun La Tercera) there is a pretty big Metro breakdown.  And that means folks are pretty much foo-ked.

Of course, the city will say that such breakdowns are bound to happen.  And that's right.  But the consequences of the breakdown are magnified dramatically by the hubris of shutting down redundant private lines to "maximize the efficiency" of the public transit system.  Public monopolies leave citizens with no alternatives when the public monopolies--inevitably--fail.  It's happening pretty often now.... People think, "Oh, there's nothing you can do."  But there IS something you can do:  don't create public monopolies on services that are actually private goods, like urban surface transport.

We see the problem, but the solution--private provision of redundant services, which before 2007 were legal--is unseen.  And the state's best answer is "It's hard" instead of "We're stupid."

It's like Atlas Shrugged, but right on your TV in your little apartment on Avenida Apoquindo.

With thanks to Fundman.

G-Bike Found?

You may recall the G-Bike.  It was a German girl's bike (actually, a German bike that happened to be set up for a girl.  I did NOT take a bike from a German girl).  Story and pictures here.  Last I knew of the G-Bike, it was stolen, in Erlangen. Stolen by the police.  Because I left it in a "no bikes" zone where there dozens of other bikes.  Okay, maybe not stolen, exactly.


Anyway, Tommy the Tenured Brit wonders if perhaps it has been found.  With John Kerry riding it.  And TtTB may be right.  But they took off the pirate flag, in that case.

Guest Post: JS

From JS:

Henny Penny and the Highway Trust Fund

In classic public choice fashion transportation infrastructure providers are clamoring that the Highway Trust Fund is going bankrupt and the message is echoed by the administration telling of the dire consequences of such insolvency.  Such urgent cries seem self-serving and ignore the much more mundane analysis of what individuals of our nation need to effectively transport themselves and the goods of our economy.

First, the gas tax is not going to expire and the congress while busy creating a crisis for what appears to be rent seeking purposes will extend spending authorization at least at a level of where receipts will provide, a 20% or 30% scale back of federal dollars is the real result, and each state while taking some time could determine if those expenditures where needed and raise sufficient revenue to address the cut back.

Second, let us look at one example of spending:

On May 21, 2014, in the midst of the potential impending doom, the US DOT provided $2.1 billion to build a 3.9 mile subway line to reach the heart of Los Angeles Metro underserved transit dependent users in Beverly Hills.  In the FEIS document prepared by the LA MTA and approved by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) they concede the project is “Low” in cost effectiveness, but how low the cost effectiveness is should take ones breath away. 

In the first phase a total of $2.6 billion in construction costs will be expended and $51 million in annual operating cost will be needed.  If the complete Purple line is built $6.2 billion in construction cost would be expended and $180 million in annual operating costs.  These expenditures are met with approximately 12,000 new daily riders in Phase I and 27,000 new daily riders with the complete system.  At current $1.50 ticket price and assuming no transfers, senior or monthly pass discounts and a 7% interest rate one can arrive at the following annualized Revenues and Costs:

If new passengers were required to pay required to pay a non-subsidized fare and no new riders left the system it would require an $80 ticket.  While not standard in transit planning, I am proposing that assessing the amount users pay as an important measure of the value received.  In many cases there may be justification for some subsidies for externalities, but a -98% return on investment seems difficult to justify.

From an environmental standpoint, the emissions resulting from external efforts to provide the needed subsidy would be on the order of magnitude of 0.035 Tons of GHG emissions per new Purple Line passenger trip and likely generated 16 miles of driving per new Purple Line passenger trip.  So even if the new transit were to have zero pollution, the pollution effects of the efforts to generate the needed Purple Line subsidy will far exceed the pollution of the no build, Bus Rapid Transit or Single Occupant Vehicles alternatives.

May be the more telling values are the professional services fees for the complete project of $815,000,000, when annualized is $57,000,000, versus the annual $10,700,000 in ticket revenue.  When your consultants are getting paid approximately five times more than the value the users are willing to pay, the incentives to get the value proposition correct don’t seem aligned.

My own assessment is that nationwide funding close to current levels using market mechanisms does not seem wholly unreasonable, but based on the example above we need to reduce the federal funding portion and allow the state and local governments make the tough tradeoffs so they feel both the benefit of the facilities and pain of the purse.

Wind-Fall Profits? Grand Game!

From J.S.:

A star project management consultant proposes a means to prevent contractors from getting wind-fall profits, and seems to deny learning the lesson that incentives matter after hundreds of millions in cost overruns, and not even the slightest hint of irony that there may be wind-fall profits in his 300K+ per year salary.

Blog Entry 
Class Syllabus
Article on LA's Light Rail Fiasco 

Lots of great Grand Game stuff there, folks!

Kids Prefer Flaming Cheese

The ever-watchful Chateau sends this gem:  Flaming cheese shuts down road tunnel in northern Norway.  WaPo version.  (For some reason, links left out earlier, thanks to Angus for catching it!)

I have a warm spot for stories where, once you have read the title, you are pretty much done, and yet you want to read the story anyway.

And, while we're at it:  What is the deal with Norway and dairy products?  Remember the butter shortage?  And now a river of flaming cheese?  What is going on, Norway?  If you wouldn't take your dairy products and set them on fire in constricted areas, you'd enjoy them more.

Speed as Lower Transactions Cost

The speed of ships and shipping productivity in the age of sail

Klas Rönnbäck
European Review of Economic History, November 2012, Pages 469-489

Abstract:
A sample of vessels from the transatlantic slave trade is used as source for a quantitative analysis of the transit speed of ocean-going ships during the early modern period. In contrast to influential previous studies, the results show that the speed of ships in my sample increased significantly during this period, potentially contributing to increasing productivity of ocean shipping. The pattern is homogeneous geographically. This might have been one of the factors behind falling freight rates in the transatlantic trade, which in turn contributed to a process of market integration already during the early modern period.

We Get Letters: Polls on I-95

From Jason S:

Dr. John Whitehead posted ”It is Hard to Stifle My Outrage When the Government Asks Those Who Benefit to Pay” regarding the wisdom of Tolling I-95.

 I thought that maybe I had something to add that could cut to the heart of the matter. Tolls and user fees are excellent instruments to create value, but this is unlikely to be such an occasion for this multi-billion dollar expenditure. 1. The Draft Environmental Assessment, Purpose and Need, Page 13, Table 1-5, Statewide Average shows that fewer people will use the facility if they have to pay the price(toll) for the facility compare to if they continue with the current maintenance plan.

If the project has less people using I-95, it would seem that the project has increased the overall cost to users based on the laws of supply and demand. 2. This can also be seen quite simply by looking at the need to provide 19 cents in benefit to the users to match the fee being collected. If the new project lets everyone drive at 70mph on the corridor, and in the year of opening people value their time on average at $20/hour, then driving at 70mph with 19 cent toll is equivalent to driving at 42mph without a toll. This is equivalent to Level of Service D that the planners are trying to avoid. I would add that low income users would feel even more disadvantaged with $10/hr value of time. It makes the toll chill[1] equal to 30 mph.[2] 3.

While I have driven the corridor a decade ago and realize there are many large trucks the current traffic, according to Google Maps, is free flowing on Friday afternoon at 5:30pm typically the worst time for traffic. The proposed changes could mean very little if traffic volumes continue to hold steady as seen in the FHWA vehicle mile traveled (vmt) trends. (I looked at the NC data but there was a 2 billion vmt discrepancy going from 2010 to 2011 that makes a good estimate of the recent NC trends hard to enumerate.) I am a big supporter of no subsidies and user pays, but costumers still expect profits from their user fees that they pay. Users are smart enough to know there are intermediate solutions, phased solutions and new technology that can guide smarter investment in infrastructure.

Footnotes: [1] Toll Chill is meant to mean how it feels, in the same vain as Wind Chill.
[2] Safety and Bridge Rehab were not addressed these have only small changes to user benefits proposed.

Big Corporations in Overdrive: Regulation NEVER Helps Consumers

Proof # 456,987,321 that regulation never helps consumers.

Because it is actually not SUPPOSED to help consumers. It is supposed to help corporations.

NASHVILLE, Tenn.-- In June 2010 the Nashville Metropolitan City Council passed legislation raising the city's minimum fee for limo and sedan rentals, bumping it from $25 to $45. Drivers were prohibited by law from charging less. Other new regulations forbid limo companies from using leased vehicles, require cars to be dispatched only from the place of business, compel companies to wait 15 minutes before picking up a client, and ban parking in front of hotels and bars to wait for customers. More laws that take effect in January 2012 would also require companies to replace all sedans and SUVs over seven-years-old, and all limos 10-years-old and older. Vehicles older than five years cannot enter into service.

Passed under the guise of consumer protection, the net effect is to give large, existing car companies (also known as livery services) a huge advantage over smaller companies, and to effectively prevent any new companies from entering the market. Prior to the new laws, Tennesseans could purchase transportation from downtown Nashville to the airport in a limo or sedan for the same price as an average taxi ride. Nashville residents and visitors will now pay almost double for the same service.

Nashville folks in need of an affordable ride, and drivers looking to earn an independent living in a sagging economy, join a long line of people caught on the wrong end of a nationwide effort by big car services to squeeze extra profit by regulating competitors out of business. It's a case of regulations actually costing jobs and driving up costs, just as Republicans charge they always do. But this time, the regulations are being pushed by the GOP's so-called "job creators," the new name given to big business.

Two interesting things:

1. HuffPo admits "it's a case of regulations actually costing jobs and driving up costs..." Note the scare quotes implicitly surrounding "actually." Regulations really DO always cost jobs and drive up costs. There is no "actually" needed in that sentence. But HuffPo can't help itself; as a corporation herself (proving corporations are NOT human), Arriana may need her a slice of that good ol' regulation herself sometime. So there is that ridiculous, sarcastic "actually." Goofballs. (UPDATE: Radley B says the author is his intern. So perhaps I'm overreacting to the "actually." Mea culpa.)

2. On the other hand, the idea that "this time" the Republicans are on the wrong side of the issue is as naive as the "actually" was cynical. Of course the Republicans are on the wrong side of the issue. They are REPUBLICANS! Hypocrites.

Both of the state sponsored parties shake down corporations for campaign funds and support. Since the corporations aren't going to pay that, someone has to pick up the tab. Bend over, consumers! We are here to regulate you right up the gazotch.

Here's a fun game: Keith O and Arriana H talking about regulation. The object of the game...how long can you go before poking sharp sticks in both ears? I made it about 45 seconds. Perhaps YOU can do better.

(Nod to Joel R., who knows I'm right)

Public Relations Firm Fires Railroad

How bad is it when a public relations firm quits, because they can't stand all the lying, deceit, and soul-sucking distortion?

Answer: Pretty bad.



(Nod to Jason S.)

Railroaded?

JS sends an email, as he sometimes does:

The California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA), hired some highly qualified transportation experts to analyze their ridership and revenue projections. From what I can tell the experts determined that the original ridership and revenue model used many state of the art techniques, but did not use all the methods the reviewing experts have heard of so they need to do more projecting. In going through the projections they came up with some interesting points about bias due to using stated preference versus revealed preference and a lot of advice on how to improve the accuracy of the projections. (The Report)

Even though all of the recommendation seem reasonable in making the model more accurate, it seems to me to be much about scientism. The the model projects all modes; however, the most import for determining revenue and ridership is the High Speed Rail (HSR) component. This mode has no possibility of revealed preference data in the US much less California. So the question is for both the CHSRA modelers and model reviewers: "Where is the uncertainty?" I see a presumption that there is an answer, instead of range of possible outcomes.

Many travel models that populate the Metropolitan Planning Organizations across the US show traffic doubling from Today's levels by 2035, but from May 2001 to May 2011 the trend has only shown a 0.8% annual rate of increase. (Travel Trends Report FHWA) A rate approximately one quarter of what was projected. These car and truck models have virtually all the historical data that economtrican could want but still has huge uncertainties. In fact the auto share of the market is an integral part of the HSR model. Shouldn't the uncertainty be as or more paramount than the accuracy. With the higher uncertainty should come the naturally higher return on the $40 to $120 Billion investment. I predict little if any of the uncertainty will be addressed in the next CHSRA business plan.

Dang those danglers!

Florida has had problems with those bull ball danglers, which we described here at KPC three years ago.

A new incident: The Five Oh in SC is actually writing tickets!

(Nod to the Blonde, who being pure and innocent is easily shocked)

The Pokey-Pokey

I do the POOOOOKey-pokey.

I do the POOOOOKey-pokey.

And that's what it's all about!



As you watch this, some TSA guy is grabbing Angus's tingly bits.

IQ and Law Scoffing

Not sure about this study, by my good friend John Nye. Summary from WSJ:

George Mason University economists Garett Jones and J.V.C. Nye set out to solve a riddle: What makes someone likely to obey the law in situations where there’s no chance for punishment? Before 2003, diplomats enjoyed just this type of impunity when parking on city streets. Hundreds of United Nations representatives and foreign consulate officials in New York were free to ignore parking tickets issued by police without fear that their vehicles would be impounded.

A federal law took effect in 2003 giving local authorities the power to pull diplomatic plates from cars with too many unpaid tickets, introducing the first real consequence. Unpaid tickets plummeted as a result. But even in the freewheeling era of diplomatic immunity, not every nation’s diplomats ignored parking tickets just because they could. As the economists note:

Delegations differed widely in their scofflaw tendencies: The median diplomat averaged 8 unpaid tickets per year, the standard deviation was 33 tickets per year, and the maximum was 250 per year (from the Kuwaiti delegation).

The study itself...

Would have thought that "IQ" would be standing in for a national culture of rule of law, and voluntary cooperation. In other words, market systems.

So my hypothesis is that countries with highly developed market systems would be those that have fewer parking tickets. The "IQ" correlation is spurious.

Comments?

Grand Game: Bullet Train Edition

Amazing article in the NYTimes, on bullet trains. (Nod to Anonyman).

Worthy of the Grand Game. Pick your favorite part.

Anonyman went first: Best part is the last sentence in the article...

Now, with the collapse of the Florida route, it looks as if the nation’s first segment of true high-speed rail will be in an even unlikelier place — linking Fresno and Bakersfield, in California’s Central Valley, and scheduled to end construction in 2017.

I can see wanting to take a fast train OUT of either of those places, but not if your only option is to go to the OTHER of those places.

My favorite part: The "Mad Men" commercial they paraphrase, which I had not heard about.

Mad Men On Trains from Rich Sommer

My favorite line: "“I read a piece that said that in 40 years, gas is going to cost almost a dollar a gallon,” one says." That was 1965, when gas was $0.31 per gallon. Now, this is not a commercial about inflation, folks. This is about GASOLINE. So, what is the current price of gasoline (I figured $3.60 per gallon nominal) in terms of 1965 prices? The answer is... $0.58! Still nowhere close to a dollar. I can never tell if US PIRG is a bunch of idiots, or liars. But those are the only possibilities, for them to make an ad like this.

Anyway, your turn! What's the coolest part of the article? Don't hold back, there's plenty of fun for everybody!

Not Making This Up: Activist Accused of Being Too Smart

I would have thought the oppressive apparatus of the state could no longer surprise me with its never-ending creativity. But...I am surprised, by this.

The NC DOT did an engineering study of a local road widening project, and concluded that no new signals were required at two intersections. A citizen, David Cox, had the gall to disagree. He did some research, and put the research in the form of an organized argument.

The state could have responded by ignoring the request. Or the state could have pointed out the errors in the study. (I myself have no position on the merits; haven't studied it, don't know the issues).

But the state engineer instead threatened the citizen with legal action... for... being smart! They investigated, saying Cox was "practicing engineering without a license." Yes, really. The state DOT head engineer, Kevin Lacy, did not dispute the facts, the analysis, or the conclusions of the report. All he did was try to get the report dismissed because it was "engineering quality work." Read that again: the citizen made a petition to government for redress of a grievance, and the state wants to prosecute the citizen because the quality of the analysis is too high. (If the petition, redress, etc. thing sounds familiar that's because it is a right guaranteed in the 1st Amendment).

Now, the citizen had NEVER claimed to be an engineer, and had simply signed his name to the report. And he had organized the report in a way that made sense to him, presenting information that he thought was important for the question of whether the intersections needed traffic signals.

The cool thing is that the state is going to say, "We never ACTUALLY brought charges!" Just like the Mafia thugs say, "Nice restaurant. It wud be a shame if sumpin wud to happen to it, like youknowafireorsumpin, capisce?" The fact is that the state can exert an enormously chilling effect simply by suggesting that citizens should be investigated.

But the idea that a citizen can be investigated for being smart and making an effective counter-argument.... wow, I did not expect the state to be willing to be that thuggish.

Finally, I should note that this may all be self-serving for the KPC staff. Because if being really smart, persuasive, and disagreeable is a crime now...well, Angus and I should just assume the position.

New York Bus System

I have been working on the stupidity of urban transit systems, and their occasional successes, for some time.

New York's new "Select" system? It goes down on the "stupid" side of the ledger.

A general description.

And the actions of a new bus Gestapo.

"I'm from the government, and I'm here to .... arrest you! For being confused."

He came, he saw, he conquered!

Mungo ruled the Sooner nation last night. Thanks to SIAS for sponsoring this event and to everyone who came out. It was informative, provocative and entertaining.

Mungos a'coming

People I am happy to announce that K.G. Mungowitz will be in Oklahoma later this month:

(click on the pic for a more glorious image).

Thanks to Jacque B. for the cool poster.