Conversations with Tyler

 People this is what I have to put up with! What follows below is verbatim.

TC:  Lonzo Ball really good! Pelicans could be decent if they make Zion the #3 option.

Angus: So far this year Lonzo is at 11 ppg, 4.6 assists, 2.3 turnovers. His PER is 10. Zion's is 24. Ingram 20. Lonzo is shooting 38.8 from the field, 30.1 from 3 and  58.3 on free throws. His career shooting numbers are about the same as that.  So, that's the opposite of good.

TC: You are like those people who do not wish to approve the AstraZeneca vaccine!

Angus: If he was 56% effective, I would definitely approve him.

TC: Just don't let anyone over 60 years of age watch him play.

Bob Tollison is saying, "I told y'all so!"

Angus and I had a great friend, Robert Tollison, who died last year.

An article of faith for Bob, a core of his belief system, was that Dean Smith had somehow managed to corrupt and coopt the NCAA, and all basketball functionaries.  That is, it's not just that Dean and the UNC administration cheated. They had become the secret rulers of the whole process.

As you may know, there has been a scandal at UNC for the past five years or so.  Classes that didn't meet, had no requirements, and had papers written by TAs.

Thursday, the NCAA decided that there was nothing to be done. No sanctions, no punishment for basketball.   This is quite a surprise. It would NOT have surprised Bob.

Bob:  get a celestial bourbon and Diet Coke, and enjoy your vindication.

Sunk Costs in a Basketball Economy

Are Sunk Costs Irrelevant? Evidence from Playing Time in the National Basketball Association 

 Daniel Leeds, Michael Leeds & Akira Motomura 
Economic Inquiry, forthcoming 

Abstract: We use playing time in the National Basketball Association to investigate whether sunk costs affect decision making. Behavioral economics implies that teams favor players chosen in the lottery and first round of the draft because of the greater financial and psychic commitment to them. Neoclassical economics implies that only current performance matters. We build on previous work in two ways. First, we better capture potential playing time by accounting for time lost to injuries or suspension. Second, we use regression discontinuity to capture changes when a player's draft position crosses thresholds. We find that teams allocate no more time to highly drafted players. 

Nod to Kevin Lewis

MJ's Tesla

YYM caught this in traffic yesterday.  As in, "I'm at a stoplight behind Michael Jordan."

Repeat after me: Kevin Durant is not an all-star, Kevin Durant is not an all-star, Kevin Durant is not.....

Every year, KD goes to the all-star game, kicks ass, and then comes back home exhausted and plays bad (by his standards) for a couple weeks. The Thunder accordingly have a post all-star swoon (by their standards). [I am way too lazy to look this up, but it is based on my experiences and memories as a 6 year Thunder season ticket holder]. Durant hoists a ton of shots over the weekend and then his in game shooting suffers (especially behind the arc) when the season resumes.

Fair enough. He is amazing and it's been a blast going to Thunder games with him on the team.

But this year we can't afford it. The Thunder are 22-20, and sitting outside the playoffs and that's before having to play ATL and CLE on the road this weekend!

KD needs to kick back, rest his foot, and take it easy during the All-star break. Maybe even come down to the Riverwind and play some poker with me, Mark Kaplan, Jim Traber, and Russ!


KD: STAY HOME!

Angus returns to the NBA

Even though Bill Simmons has severely truncated me and Tyler's hustle, I still get to do some fun economics of sports stuff now and again.

Heres a link to the recording of my lengthy interview on BYU radio. We start at the 24 minute mark of the recording.

I try to explain increasing returns to talent, the median voter theorem, and the difficulties involved in getting people to pay for public goods, all in the context of why top NBA stars are likely underpaid.

I also enjoyed briefly getting to compare the socialist NFL to the much more Darwinian English Premier League.

Thanks to the folks at BYU radio for having me on.

The Bob Tollison School Of Defense

James Harden is clearly a stellar graduate of the BT-SOD as evidenced by this vine:

Where Will My Talents Go?

LeBron James famously said he would be taking his talents to South Beach, in that ill-considered press conference.

Now he may be moving his talents again.

It come down to who will take more of his "talents" from him.  If you think of talents as a unit of money, or a weight of precious metals--and given the Biblical knowledge of KPC readers, we KNOW you have been thinking just that--LeBron is indeed a man of many talents.  And states are broadly different in their tax policies.  LeBron won't be able to look just at the salary offer...

If a "talent" is unit of money worth $22,239, then here is a table of how many talents LeBron would have to give up from his salary in each city:

	Loss of Talents (at $20.7 million salary…)	Team Record This Year
Dallas, TX	With Mavs:  0	49-33
Miami, FL	With Heat:  0	54-28
LA, CA	With Clippers:  124	57-25
Chicago, IL	With Bulls:47	48-34
Pheonix, AZ	With Suns:  42	48-34
Cleveland, OH	With Cavaliers:  50	33-49

This is at a price of silver of $21/ounce, a conversion rate of 35.3 ounces per kilogram, and 30 kilograms per talent. Your results may vary…

Spirits, Colonels, and the art of the deal.

From the NY Times comes word that the NBA may finally be buying out their agreement with the Silna brothers dating back to the sphinctering of the  Spirits  of St. Louis when the NBA and (part of) the ABA merged.

 

As we recently chronicled, the Silnas have earned around $300 million from their revenue sharing agreement. 

Now the League is proposing to buy them out for another $500 million.

Kudos to you Silnas! Well played.

To see how well, consider that there was another ABA franchise in a similar position also negotiating with the NBA about being frozen out of the merger. They were the Kentucky Colonels. Their owner, the allegedly wily John Y. Brown masterfully negotiated a $3 million dollar lump sum payment.

John Y. no good. Just ask Phillis George.

 

 

Loose Balls

People, meet the Silna brothers, Ozzie & Daniel. Last year they received $19 million from the NBA, and have in sum received a total of around $300 million from the Association.

They don't play on any team, or coach, or have a concession contract, or run a medical facility. No, they are the ex-owners of the Spirits of St. Louis, a long defunct ABA franchise.

When the ABA went under in 1976 and was partially absorbed by the NBA, the Spirits were left out in the cold. But the Silnas negotiated a settlement of a smallish lump sum payment plus 1/7th of the "visual media" revenues generated by the 4 ABA teams who made it into the NBA (Spurs, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers) IN PERPETUITY.

In 1982, the NBA had a chance to buy them out of the deal for $8 million paid out over 8 years but refused!

And, just this year, a judge ruled that the NBA has to pay them a share of the League's internet and NBA TV revenues as well.

Here is a great article about the situation. And here is a NYTimes article about it.

early merry chrixmix

I'll take "Things that are not compliments" for $800 Alex....

From a Non-Putin Portion of the NYT:

 Jill Demling, entertainment editor of Vogue,...has pronounced Mr. Westbrook the “Kate Moss of the N.B.A.” 

Um..... Because he's promiscuous?

Or because he has an eating disorder?

Perhaps a coke habit?

 Jeez Jill, don't throw my boy under the bus like that!

Or did Kate Moss wear lensless glasses, make commercials with JVG, and not pass to KD enough?

Hat tip to LeBron.

Zombies and Shot-Blocking

I always thought Manute Bol was a shot blocker who looked like a zombie. (No, that's not photo-shopped).  But perhaps he was a zombie who looked like a shot blocker? (In fairness, Bol was also a first-rate human being). But on to the research question:


Aggressive Acts Increase Commitment to New Groups: Zombie Attacks and Blocked Shots 

Negin Toosi, E.J. Masicampo & Nalini Ambady 
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming 

Abstract: How do individuals who switch between opposing sides develop a sense of commitment to their new groups? Study 1 examined these dynamics in a live-action tag game known as Humans versus Zombies, in which players transitioned from being Human to being Zombie, thus turning against their former fellow Humans. Study 2 examined data from professional basketball players in the National Basketball Association who moved to a new team and had to play against their former team. Aggressive acts against former group members in these competitive settings determined commitment to the new group above and beyond other factors. Aggressive acts against former teammates, such as simulated killing (Study 1) and blocked shots (Study 2), promoted more positive self-reported attitudes toward the new group (Study 1) and more collaboration with new group members in the form of assists (Study 2). 

Nod to Kevin Lewis

From beyond the grave, Warren Zevon breaks down the Lakers

Okie ego trippin'

1.  Can't resist the opportunity to brag that my JME article with Gordon Tullock has hit 1000 citations on Google Scholar.

2. On the either end of my citation list, one of the funnest and least cited papers I've ever written (and the best-titled paper I've ever written), "Arbitrage in a Basketball Economy", was featured in the WAPO Wonkblog this past week. Co-authored with the estimable Bob Tollison.

3. My paper with Aaron Smallwood on exchange rate volatility and trade was recently accepted for publication in the Journal of International Money and Finance.

4. Finally, my student and co-author, Norman Maynard, has accepted a tenure track job at the College of Charleston!

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

Looks like rain

Was it flooding in Chicago last night?

Hey D-Wade: Thurston Howell the III called. He wants his blazer back!

Hey boy get a sweater: Angus on NPR?

Here's the link.

There is much more than just the salary cap (which restricts teams' overall payrolls) involved in the financial hosing of LeBron. It's the whole collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Even if a team chooses to spend over the cap and pay the steep  "luxury tax", there are still provisions in the CBA that limit the maximum salary any player can receive, how fast that salary can rise over the course of the contract, and how long the contract can last.

All of those things work against the LeBrons and in favor of the "median" player. Whatever sized pie is available, these other CBA provisions limit how much of it can go to the superstars, thus leaving more of it for the rank and file.

Does PJ Carlesimo have relatives on the Milwaukee PD?

I only ask because Latrell Sprewell somehow got taken to jail for the offense of playing music loud in his own $%#$ house!

I always thought Milwaukee was cool, but whatever Spree was playing, the Po-lice were not playing:

"Sprewell, 42 and a graduate of Washington High School, was booked into the jail about 4:15 p.m."

I guess I could see it if he was blasting "Call me maybe", otherwise, WTF Milwaukee?

Hat tip to MT

Your Thunder draft pick update

As part of the Harden trade, the Thunder received a protected first round pick from the Toronto Raptors. If it turns out to be one of the top 3 picks or worse than the 14th pick, the Thunder would have to wait at least another year to get the pick.

Obviously, the dream scenario would be for it to be the number 4 pick.

Right now, the Raptors are tied with Detroit for the second-worst record in the NBA with a .214 winning percentage. The Whizzers are winless, and Cleveland is 1/2 game better than Toronto (notice how all the truly pitiful teams are in the East).

Kyrie Irving's injury is a bit of a plus for the Thunder as it might help push Cleveland below Toronto.

Yes, I know that there is an element of randomness in the lottery, but it looks like, at this early point in the season, the Raptors might be too crappy for the Thunder to get their pick this year.

What the fudge?

Mrs. Angus took a picture of me last night after I heard about the Harden trade:

I have since calmed down a bit, and am actually OK with the deal.

Durant, Westbrook, Perkins & Ibaka all left money on the table to sign contract extensions with the Thunder. OKC was offering James $54 million over 4 years and asking him to take about a $4.5 million discount over the life of the contract.

He wouldn't.

The Thunder got a lot in return. A high lottery pick either this year or next, another first round pick, a proven scorer to come off the bench in Kevin Martin, and a potentially solid rookie in Jeremy Lamb.

I would like to think that if I was going to be making $13 million a year, I would give up an extra $1.2 million per year to stay on a championship caliber team instead of being tossed into a bare cupboard and getting "coached" by Kevin McHale.

But James Harden wouldn't and who knows, maybe I wouldn't either.

I know the team could have kept Harden this year and seen what developed, but that is apparently just not the Thunder way (see Jeff Green), and it is not clear how Harden would have reacted to being in limbo for the season.

The funniest reaction I've seen to the trade is this bit of genius from Matt Yglesias. Russell Westbrook  was second team all NBA for the second year in a row, and is just getting better and better overall and at playing the point. James Harden is a shooting guard, the easiest thing to find in the NBA.