We Get Letters: The Seen and the Unseen

From a avid aviation reader:

Article in Vanity Fair on airlines and safety...

On page 2 there a superb section expanding on "Cockpit Resource Management." Studying economics has given me a deeper appreciation of this revolution in aviation. 

Preventing arrogance from disrupting complex systems appears to be a central challenge of economics/political science. The fact that the aviation community did this in an institution famous for attracting arrogant [people, especially pilots] seems like a remarkable achievement. I think it is fair to say this feat was a key contributor to plummeting accident rates the past three decades.  The author does a superb job walking the reader through a very complex/technical mishap. 

Flops at the end, though. "It seems that we are locked into a spiral in which poor human performance begets automation, which worsens human performance, which begets increasing automation. The pattern is common to our time but is acute in aviation." 

So much pessimism. In 2013, there were 224 worldwide commercial aviation fatalities out of 3.1 billion passengers served. We're "locked into a spiral" of safety advancements so spectacular that we've reduced the odds of death down to one in 45 million. 

Hard to imagine a human activity that is more safe. It would make more sense for Vanity Fair to lament the progress of eliminating bathtub hazards. Aviation has something in common with the free society and market economies. Three pure miracles of human achievement, and people obsess on the negatives and totally ignore the miracle. 

An interesting perspective:  Are we done with this safety thing?  Mission accomplished and all that?

I Like to Watch

Predicting Young Drivers' Car Crashes: The Role of Music Video Viewing and the Playing of Driving Games. Results from a Prospective Cohort Study

Kathleen Beullens & Jan Van den Bulck
Media Psychology, Winter 2013, Pages 88-114

Abstract:
The aim of the study is to examine whether the playing of driving games and the viewing of music videos during adolescence predict crash involvement in emerging adulthood. A prospective cohort study (N = 471) with a five-year interval was used to measure adolescents' gender, media use, personality characteristics (baseline measurement), and crash involvement (follow-up). At baseline measurement (2006), respondents were 17 or 18 years old and did not yet have their driver's license. Data were analyzed by means of logistic regression analyses and the calculation of attributable risks. Respondents who watched music videos at least several times a week (OR = 4.319) or respondents who played drive'em up games at least a few times a month (OR = 3.125) had a heightened chance of being involved in a car crash five years later, even after controlling for their total media exposure, gender, and personality characteristics. Implications for prevention are discussed

Women Drivers

This story got me thinking: is the stereotype about women drivers correct, in terms of central tendency? Obviously many men are too aggressive, and are far more likely to cause accidents, than women. But, still... women drive differently, right?

Anyway, here is the story:

A young woman mistakenly followed her rental car's GPS directions down a boat ramp in Bellevue, Washington. The driver apparently thought she was on a road when she crashed her SUV into the water at Mercer Slough Nature Park, reports KATU.com. One woman immediately jumped to safety, and the other two stood on door frames before wading ashore.

The three women were in town for a conference and were searching for a hotel just after midnight when they drove down the darkened path. "They were trying to re-route their path and found this boat launch," says a local fireman. "[They] just kept driving into the water." The SUV was completely submerged when a tow truck arrived in the morning. Police don't suspect drugs or alcohol were a factor. "We've seen sitcom parodies of something like this," says the fireman. "To actually see it is surprising."

The truth is that women are not just better and safer drivers, but are substantially better. Maybe they are just not very good at programming the GPS.

Right, Shirley?

(Nod to Anonyman, who can program anything except women)