I am in Frankfurt for a Liberty Fund Conference, on the writings of the estimable Anthony Jasay. (You have to like the modesty of the web site: "You should find visiting [the web site] both stimulating and instructive." It is always useful when people give you instructions on what your reactions should be. Saves you having to think independently, which can be both tiring and...how to put this.....well, people might otherwise get stuff wrong.
And, Ms. Mungowitz will be here Saturday. Then....Paris.
Staying at the Steigenberger Hotel in Frankfurt City. Got here on the DBahn, and I have to admit it went well. Very crowded, but early on both trains, and since I had a reserved sitplatz, with a table, I enjoyed the trip. It is not as interesting when things go well, I admit. But since I have been so whiny, I should also acknowledge that this trip was excellent.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Delta WiFi
Delta plans to have WiFi on all its flights!
$10 for less than three hours, $12 for longer flights.
That is really pretty great, from my perspective. But how will they handle:
1. Access to power? Or will everybody have to bring extra batteries? That's
a lot of extra weight, and some fire risk.
2. Censoring content? Apparently, they are going to censor dirty stuff, stuff they think is dirty (I hope they cut out Keith Olbermann), and any kind of VOIP. There may be an arms race between cat and mouse. I guess this means Delta will be taking lessons from China on how to restrict internet sites. Ick.
3. Security? Sitting right there, so close, for hours. An enterprising scammer can buy tickets just for the purpose of stealing stuff, if it is all wireless.
Still, this would be very, very good.
$10 for less than three hours, $12 for longer flights.
That is really pretty great, from my perspective. But how will they handle:
1. Access to power? Or will everybody have to bring extra batteries? That's
a lot of extra weight, and some fire risk.
2. Censoring content? Apparently, they are going to censor dirty stuff, stuff they think is dirty (I hope they cut out Keith Olbermann), and any kind of VOIP. There may be an arms race between cat and mouse. I guess this means Delta will be taking lessons from China on how to restrict internet sites. Ick.
3. Security? Sitting right there, so close, for hours. An enterprising scammer can buy tickets just for the purpose of stealing stuff, if it is all wireless.
Still, this would be very, very good.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Thinking About Obama Doesn't Make Me Smarter, But Living in Germany Might....
The Obama Effect: An Experimental Test
Joshua Aronson, Sheana Jannone, Matthew McGlone & Tanisha Johnson-Campbell
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Past research on stereotype threat and role model effects, as well as a recent quasi-experiment (Marx, Ho, & Freidman, this issue) suggested the possibility of an "Obama effect" on African American's standardized test performance, whereby the salience of Barack Obama's stereotype defying success could positively impact performance. We tested this reasoning in a randomized experiment with a broad sample of college students from across the country. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that students prompted to think about Barack Obama prior to taking a difficult standardized verbal test would improve their performance relative to white students, and to African American students in control conditions that were not prompted to think about Obama. Our results did not support this hypothesis. Test scores were unaffected by prompts to think about Obama and no relationship was found between test performance and positive thoughts about Obama, a disconfirmation of both the findings and conclusions of the Marx, Ho, and Freidman study.
-----------------------
Cultural Borders and Mental Barriers: The Relationship Between Living Abroad and Creativity
William Maddux & Adam Galinsky
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, May 2009, Pages 1047-1061
Abstract:
Despite abundant anecdotal evidence that creativity is associated with living in foreign countries, there is currently little empirical evidence for this relationship. Five studies employing a multimethod approach systematically explored the link between living abroad and creativity. Using both individual and dyadic creativity tasks, Studies 1 and 2 provided initial demonstrations that time spent living abroad (but not time spent traveling abroad) showed a positive relationship with creativity. Study 3 demonstrated that priming foreign living experiences temporarily enhanced creative tendencies for participants who had previously lived abroad. In Study 4, the degree to which individuals had adapted to different cultures while living abroad mediated the link between foreign living experience and creativity. Study 5 found that priming the experience of adapting to a foreign culture temporarily enhanced creativity for participants who had previously lived abroad. The relationship between living abroad and creativity was consistent across a number of creativity measures (including those measuring insight, association, and generation), as well as with masters of business administration and undergraduate samples, both in the United States and Europe, demonstrating the robustness of this phenomenon.
The Contemporary Presidency: Decision Making in the Bush White House
James Pfiffner Presidential Studies Quarterly, June 2009, Pages 363-384
Abstract:
The White House Office is so large and complex that a systematic process of policy evaluation is essential in order to provide the president with a range of options on all important policy decisions. Some of the most important decisions that President George W. Bush made in his first term were taken without the benefit of broad deliberation within the White House or cabinet. This article will take up four cases of policy decisions to illustrate the lack of a regular policy process and consultation that characterized many important decisions of the Bush Administration. Two focus on detainee policy: the military commissions order of November 13, 2001, and the February 7, 2002, decision to suspend the Geneva Conventions. And two are about the war in Iraq: the initial decision to go to war and the decision to disband the Iraqi army. The pattern that emerges from an examination of these four decisions is one of secrecy, top-down control, tightly held information, disregard for the judgments of career professionals, and the exclusion from deliberation of qualified executive branch experts who might have disagreed with those who initially framed the decisions.
-----------------------
The persuasiveness of the straw man rhetorical technique
George Bizer, Shirel Kozak & Leigh Ann Holterman Social Influence, July
2009, Pages 216-230
Abstract:
The straw man technique takes place when an opponent's argument or position is distorted or oversimplified so that it can easily be refuted. Two experiments assessed the technique's effectiveness. Participants read two passages ostensibly written by two people competing for a public office, the second of which did or did not include a straw man argument. In Experiment 1, participants led to believe that the office was of low personal relevance were more persuaded by the straw man technique. In Experiment 2, participants low in need for structure were less persuaded when a candidate used the technique. Our research therefore suggests that whereas the straw man may be effective when motivation to elaborate is low, the technique may be unsuccessful or even backfire when such motivation is high.
(Nod to Kevin L)
Joshua Aronson, Sheana Jannone, Matthew McGlone & Tanisha Johnson-Campbell
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Past research on stereotype threat and role model effects, as well as a recent quasi-experiment (Marx, Ho, & Freidman, this issue) suggested the possibility of an "Obama effect" on African American's standardized test performance, whereby the salience of Barack Obama's stereotype defying success could positively impact performance. We tested this reasoning in a randomized experiment with a broad sample of college students from across the country. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that students prompted to think about Barack Obama prior to taking a difficult standardized verbal test would improve their performance relative to white students, and to African American students in control conditions that were not prompted to think about Obama. Our results did not support this hypothesis. Test scores were unaffected by prompts to think about Obama and no relationship was found between test performance and positive thoughts about Obama, a disconfirmation of both the findings and conclusions of the Marx, Ho, and Freidman study.
-----------------------
Cultural Borders and Mental Barriers: The Relationship Between Living Abroad and Creativity
William Maddux & Adam Galinsky
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, May 2009, Pages 1047-1061
Abstract:
Despite abundant anecdotal evidence that creativity is associated with living in foreign countries, there is currently little empirical evidence for this relationship. Five studies employing a multimethod approach systematically explored the link between living abroad and creativity. Using both individual and dyadic creativity tasks, Studies 1 and 2 provided initial demonstrations that time spent living abroad (but not time spent traveling abroad) showed a positive relationship with creativity. Study 3 demonstrated that priming foreign living experiences temporarily enhanced creative tendencies for participants who had previously lived abroad. In Study 4, the degree to which individuals had adapted to different cultures while living abroad mediated the link between foreign living experience and creativity. Study 5 found that priming the experience of adapting to a foreign culture temporarily enhanced creativity for participants who had previously lived abroad. The relationship between living abroad and creativity was consistent across a number of creativity measures (including those measuring insight, association, and generation), as well as with masters of business administration and undergraduate samples, both in the United States and Europe, demonstrating the robustness of this phenomenon.
The Contemporary Presidency: Decision Making in the Bush White House
James Pfiffner Presidential Studies Quarterly, June 2009, Pages 363-384
Abstract:
The White House Office is so large and complex that a systematic process of policy evaluation is essential in order to provide the president with a range of options on all important policy decisions. Some of the most important decisions that President George W. Bush made in his first term were taken without the benefit of broad deliberation within the White House or cabinet. This article will take up four cases of policy decisions to illustrate the lack of a regular policy process and consultation that characterized many important decisions of the Bush Administration. Two focus on detainee policy: the military commissions order of November 13, 2001, and the February 7, 2002, decision to suspend the Geneva Conventions. And two are about the war in Iraq: the initial decision to go to war and the decision to disband the Iraqi army. The pattern that emerges from an examination of these four decisions is one of secrecy, top-down control, tightly held information, disregard for the judgments of career professionals, and the exclusion from deliberation of qualified executive branch experts who might have disagreed with those who initially framed the decisions.
-----------------------
The persuasiveness of the straw man rhetorical technique
George Bizer, Shirel Kozak & Leigh Ann Holterman Social Influence, July
2009, Pages 216-230
Abstract:
The straw man technique takes place when an opponent's argument or position is distorted or oversimplified so that it can easily be refuted. Two experiments assessed the technique's effectiveness. Participants read two passages ostensibly written by two people competing for a public office, the second of which did or did not include a straw man argument. In Experiment 1, participants led to believe that the office was of low personal relevance were more persuaded by the straw man technique. In Experiment 2, participants low in need for structure were less persuaded when a candidate used the technique. Our research therefore suggests that whereas the straw man may be effective when motivation to elaborate is low, the technique may be unsuccessful or even backfire when such motivation is high.
(Nod to Kevin L)
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Roland the headless Thompson gunner*
Even though we are about to leave for Brazil, I have recently finished reading 4 books about the Congo. All are good, two especially so.
1. King Leopold's Ghost.
Excellent book about Leopold, Stanley, the operations of the "Congo Free State" and the people who tried to expose it. Highly recommended.
2. Chief of Station, Congo: Fighting the cold war in a hot zone.
Interesting account of the events around independence, the murder of Lumumba and the rise of Mobutu. Marred however, by the author's repeated attempts to portray himself as a combination of Gary Cooper, Jackie Chan, & Jesus.
3. In the footsteps of Mr. Kurtz: Living on the brink of disaster in Mobutu's Congo.
Documents, on the macro level, the corruption machine that was Mobutu. Tries to do Kremlinology, Congo style, on his courtiers and family. The whole Mr. Kurtz tie in was strained as was the tact of starting at the end before jumping back to the beginning. I struggled a bit to finish this one. I did like very much the idea that the reign of Leopold paved the way for the reign of Mobutu that the author argues for passionately.
4. Facing the Congo.
First person account of an American's quest to descend the Congo river on a pirogue "solo" (quotes because he ends up with a guide and a soldier). This was my favorite of the bunch. It puts you inside what Leopold + Mobutu had created in the Congo and doesn't let you out. The book puts in the human side that book #3 really glosses over.
Probably best read last if you are going to read any of the others. Gets Angus's highest recommendation.
*(he killed to earn a living and to help out the Congolese)
Requiring Information, Allowing Choice
An interesting question for Libertariana: Should accurate, consistent food labelling be required? This argument for consistent labelling, in the EU, makes some sense. Many people have allergies, some of them deadly. My nephew has an extreme nuts (and other stuff) allergy. Angus himself has some food issues. (I have some issues, including my "see food" diet, but labelling won't help that much). Should contents be listed clearly and accurately, and should the state prosecute deviations? One big problem, as described in the article, is nuts.
Or should we (quoting Tony McCaullife, responding to the demands from General Heinrich Freiherr von Lüttwitz that he surrender Bastogne, on December , 1945) just say:
NUTS.
(Nod to Warden, who knows things)
Or should we (quoting Tony McCaullife, responding to the demands from General Heinrich Freiherr von Lüttwitz that he surrender Bastogne, on December , 1945) just say:
NUTS.
(Nod to Warden, who knows things)
Monday, June 08, 2009
My Interview with El Mercurio
El Mercurio had some questions about Barack Obama.
And, did I have answers? You bet I did.
El considerable aumento del gasto fiscal ya no sólo pone nerviosos a los partidarios de un gobierno reducido, con una mínima intervención en la economía, coinciden expertos. Cada vez son más los temores de que la carga en las finanzas federales termine por empeorar la situación, especialmente para la clase media.
Pero, "en este momento, los estadounidenses quieren creer en el programa de Obama. Ha hecho un buen trabajo mostrando su "estampa presidencial". Y la gente simplemente ama a la Primera Dama, Michelle. Así es que pienso que tiene otros seis meses para tratar de hacer más cambios", apunta el especialista de la Universidad de Duke, Michael Munger.
ATSRTWT
And, did I have answers? You bet I did.
El considerable aumento del gasto fiscal ya no sólo pone nerviosos a los partidarios de un gobierno reducido, con una mínima intervención en la economía, coinciden expertos. Cada vez son más los temores de que la carga en las finanzas federales termine por empeorar la situación, especialmente para la clase media.
Pero, "en este momento, los estadounidenses quieren creer en el programa de Obama. Ha hecho un buen trabajo mostrando su "estampa presidencial". Y la gente simplemente ama a la Primera Dama, Michelle. Así es que pienso que tiene otros seis meses para tratar de hacer más cambios", apunta el especialista de la Universidad de Duke, Michael Munger.
ATSRTWT
What If They Had an Election, and Nobody Cared?
Germany (along with most of the rest of the countries incontinent) had an election on Sunday. The tension and excitement were....nonexistent.
I have to admit, I like that. Having an election where nobody really cares what happens is a good sign, because it means that the level of government theft and corruption is relatively stable. The problem with the U.S. election of 2008 was that the prospects for really Rococo theft was enormous, regardless of who won. (And, so it has turned out).
So, here is the tale-o-th'tape:
CDP/CSU alliance, led by GWB backrub victim Angela Merkel: 38%, down from nearly 45% in the 2004 version. A creditable performance for what is in effect a midterm election for a rulilng party.
The SPD "Vote for us, and we will give you other people's money!" party led by...well, "SPD Leadership" is an oxymoron. Anyway, they actually LOST votes compared to 2004, a remarkably inept performance. As Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, “This is a disappointing result -- there’s no talking our way out of it.” Disappointing? That's like saying the Titanic had a little leak. The most likely explanation for the SPD pratfall is low turnout, but since the SPD was hoping to capitalize on unhappiness with the economy, the low turnout is the FAULT of the SPD. If people didn't care enough to go vote, they can't be very upset, or else they think that the SPD doesn't have the answer.
FDP, the "Party of Dentists", the self-styled "Liberal" (in the Euro sense) group, did very well, knocking back 11%, a pick-up of nearly 5% from 2004. But there the low turnout helped (rich college educated people ALWAYS vote). So the big percentage for FDP simply means that the denominator wasn't very big. No reason to believe that that 11% is a hard number, in forecasting the September 27 German Bundestag elections. If FDP can get 10% or more there, it would be a miracle. It would also mean that Angela Merkel and the CDP would be able to partner with FDP, and form government on the liberal center-right. Don't hold your breath, though, not likely unless turnout is unexpectedly low on September 27.
The fruits (Green Party) and nuts (der Linke) squabbled and bickered their way to 12% and 7.5%, respectively. Both of those totals are basically the same as in 2004, allowing for changing "freak of the month" leadership on the hard left. (Der Linke is the conservative, "restore the petty Communists to power" party in the East, and the far left party in the West. Must make for interesting strategy meetings....I do enjoy the "Dear Comrade" thing)
Turnout was 43%. More important, there was no campaign, at least not by American standards. A couple of posters on some signboards, and a few people in tents, handing out literature in a desultory way.
But no one really seems to care about EU elections. I like that in a country: turnout should be ZERO, in a properly functioning democracy where threats to liberty and property are minimized.
(The 2004 results)
I have to admit, I like that. Having an election where nobody really cares what happens is a good sign, because it means that the level of government theft and corruption is relatively stable. The problem with the U.S. election of 2008 was that the prospects for really Rococo theft was enormous, regardless of who won. (And, so it has turned out).
So, here is the tale-o-th'tape:
CDP/CSU alliance, led by GWB backrub victim Angela Merkel: 38%, down from nearly 45% in the 2004 version. A creditable performance for what is in effect a midterm election for a rulilng party.
The SPD "Vote for us, and we will give you other people's money!" party led by...well, "SPD Leadership" is an oxymoron. Anyway, they actually LOST votes compared to 2004, a remarkably inept performance. As Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, “This is a disappointing result -- there’s no talking our way out of it.” Disappointing? That's like saying the Titanic had a little leak. The most likely explanation for the SPD pratfall is low turnout, but since the SPD was hoping to capitalize on unhappiness with the economy, the low turnout is the FAULT of the SPD. If people didn't care enough to go vote, they can't be very upset, or else they think that the SPD doesn't have the answer.
FDP, the "Party of Dentists", the self-styled "Liberal" (in the Euro sense) group, did very well, knocking back 11%, a pick-up of nearly 5% from 2004. But there the low turnout helped (rich college educated people ALWAYS vote). So the big percentage for FDP simply means that the denominator wasn't very big. No reason to believe that that 11% is a hard number, in forecasting the September 27 German Bundestag elections. If FDP can get 10% or more there, it would be a miracle. It would also mean that Angela Merkel and the CDP would be able to partner with FDP, and form government on the liberal center-right. Don't hold your breath, though, not likely unless turnout is unexpectedly low on September 27.
The fruits (Green Party) and nuts (der Linke) squabbled and bickered their way to 12% and 7.5%, respectively. Both of those totals are basically the same as in 2004, allowing for changing "freak of the month" leadership on the hard left. (Der Linke is the conservative, "restore the petty Communists to power" party in the East, and the far left party in the West. Must make for interesting strategy meetings....I do enjoy the "Dear Comrade" thing)
Turnout was 43%. More important, there was no campaign, at least not by American standards. A couple of posters on some signboards, and a few people in tents, handing out literature in a desultory way.
But no one really seems to care about EU elections. I like that in a country: turnout should be ZERO, in a properly functioning democracy where threats to liberty and property are minimized.
(The 2004 results)
Sunday, June 07, 2009
GOAT parade
Roger Federer wins the French Open, completing his career slam and tying Pete Sampras with 14 majors. He didn't have to beat Murray, Djokovic, or Nadal, but he beat everyone they put in front of him and is now clearly tennis' GOAT.
Eldrick Woods comes from 4 behind, shooting 65 to win the Memorial tourney with two incredible approach shots on 17 and 18. He is also tied with Sampras and Fed with 14 slams, and even though he needs 18 to tie Jack Nicklaus, I am gonna go way out on a limb and say Tiger is golf's GOAT.
If they are yelling at the same kids, they must be married
It's been posted a number of places, for years, but if you haven't seen it, here are some "quotes" (which could be real) from first-named sources. But, even if they are made up, they made me laugh.
"MARRIAGE"...as explained by kids
1. HOW DO YOU DECIDE WHO TO MARRY?
-You got to find somebody who likes the same stuff. Like, if you like sports, she should like it that you like sports, and she should keep the chips and dip coming. -- Alan, age 10
-No person really decides before they grow up who they're going to marry. God decides it all way before, and you get to find out later who you're stuck with. -- Kristen, age 10
2. WHAT IS THE RIGHT AGE TO GET MARRIED?
Twenty-three is the best age because you know the person FOREVER by then. -- Camille, age 10
3. HOW CAN A STRANGER TELL IF TWO PEOPLE ARE MARRIED?
You might have to guess, based on whether they seem to be yelling at the same kids. -- Derrick, age 8
4. WHAT DO YOU THINK YOUR MOM AND DAD HAVE IN COMMON?
Both don't want any more kids. -- Lori, age 8
5. WHAT DO MOST PEOPLE DO ON A DATE?
-Dates are for having fun, and people should use them to get to know each other. Even boys have something to say if you listen long enough. -- Lynnette, age 8
-On the first date, they just tell each other lies and that usually gets them interested enough to go for a second date. -- Martin, age 10
6. WHEN IS IT OKAY TO KISS SOMEONE?
-When they're rich. -- Pam, age 7
-The law says you have to be eighteen, so I wouldn't want to mess with that. - - Curt, age 7
-The rule goes like this: If you kiss someone, then you should marry them and have kids with them. It's the right thing to do. - - Howard, age 8
7. IS IT BETTER TO BE SINGLE 20 OR MARRIED?
It's better for girls to be single but not for boys . Boys need someone to clean up after them.
-- Anita, age 9
8. HOW WOULD THE WORLD BE DIFFERENT IF PEOPLE DIDN'T GET MARRIED?
There sure would be a lot of kids to explain, wouldn't there? -- Kelvin, age 8
9. HOW WOULD YOU MAKE A MARRIAGE WORK?
Tell your wife that she looks pretty, even if she looks like a dump truck. -- Ricky, age 10
"MARRIAGE"...as explained by kids
1. HOW DO YOU DECIDE WHO TO MARRY?
-You got to find somebody who likes the same stuff. Like, if you like sports, she should like it that you like sports, and she should keep the chips and dip coming. -- Alan, age 10
-No person really decides before they grow up who they're going to marry. God decides it all way before, and you get to find out later who you're stuck with. -- Kristen, age 10
2. WHAT IS THE RIGHT AGE TO GET MARRIED?
Twenty-three is the best age because you know the person FOREVER by then. -- Camille, age 10
3. HOW CAN A STRANGER TELL IF TWO PEOPLE ARE MARRIED?
You might have to guess, based on whether they seem to be yelling at the same kids. -- Derrick, age 8
4. WHAT DO YOU THINK YOUR MOM AND DAD HAVE IN COMMON?
Both don't want any more kids. -- Lori, age 8
5. WHAT DO MOST PEOPLE DO ON A DATE?
-Dates are for having fun, and people should use them to get to know each other. Even boys have something to say if you listen long enough. -- Lynnette, age 8
-On the first date, they just tell each other lies and that usually gets them interested enough to go for a second date. -- Martin, age 10
6. WHEN IS IT OKAY TO KISS SOMEONE?
-When they're rich. -- Pam, age 7
-The law says you have to be eighteen, so I wouldn't want to mess with that. - - Curt, age 7
-The rule goes like this: If you kiss someone, then you should marry them and have kids with them. It's the right thing to do. - - Howard, age 8
7. IS IT BETTER TO BE SINGLE 20 OR MARRIED?
It's better for girls to be single but not for boys . Boys need someone to clean up after them.
-- Anita, age 9
8. HOW WOULD THE WORLD BE DIFFERENT IF PEOPLE DIDN'T GET MARRIED?
There sure would be a lot of kids to explain, wouldn't there? -- Kelvin, age 8
9. HOW WOULD YOU MAKE A MARRIAGE WORK?
Tell your wife that she looks pretty, even if she looks like a dump truck. -- Ricky, age 10
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