3D Chess

 Trump is on the 3D chess team.

On the losing team.

By himself.

Because the three different D's are contradictory. I try to "steel man" each separate strategy, as a way of showing that even if you think each of the three is good (I don't think that, but suppose....), then it's STILL true that you can't achieve all three at the same time.

From the folks at AIER, my column....

David French: Can He Actually WIN?

Surprisingly, yes..

Sure, it's a long shot.  But more possible than you might think.

Or, so I claim, in the Cleveland Plain Dealer...

Excerpt:

...if the race is close, and the "third" candidate manages to take a couple of states, it's possible nobody wins a majority. The 12th Amendment would then send the election to the House of Representatives, where voting is one-state, one-vote, and the possible candidates would be restricted to the top three Electoral College vote-getters. Up until now, we have been focused on a brokered convention. But if an outsider catches fire, there might be a brokered election. Remember: The Republicans control 32 House delegations outright. If David French wins just two or three states, he could still wind up as president.

QOTD: Paradise Lost?

Tyler drops a truthbomb in the NYT:

Republicans will need to recognize that repeal of Obamacare should not be their obsession, because they would then be leaving the nation with a dysfunctional yet still highly government-oriented health care system, not some lost conservative paradise.

Amen. The pre-ACA status quo was a mess, there is no coherent Republican plan out there, and simultaneous control of the House, Senate and Presidency does not appear to be in the near-term cards for the GOP (nor even a veto-proof majority in both houses of congress).

The whole piece is well worth reading.

I am not sure of the procedure for Federalizing Medicaid, but the idea is a good one. Let the rich liberals pay for the poor in the red states!

And I'm already on record as supporting a less comprehensive but still mandatory insurance package.

While we are at it, let's throw in breaking the AMA stranglehold on the practice of medicine. More immigration, less strict rules about who can do what, even more entry into medical schools are all good ideas.

Third Party Scape-goating

Displacing Blame over the Ingroup's Harming of a Disadvantaged Group can Fuel Moral Outrage at a Third-Party Scapegoat 

 Zachary Rothschild et al. 
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming 

Abstract: Integrating research on intergroup emotions and scapegoating, we propose that moral outrage toward an outgroup perceived to be unjustly harming another outgroup can represent a motivated displacement of blame that reduces collective guilt over ingroup harm-doing. We tested this hypothesis by manipulating the purported cause of working-class Americans' suffering (ingroup cause vs. unknown cause vs. outgroup cause) and whether a potential scapegoat target (i.e., illegal immigrants) was portrayed as a viable or nonviable alternative source of this harm. Supporting hypotheses, participants primed with ingroup culpability for working-class harm (versus other sources) reported increased moral outrage and support for retributive action toward immigrants when immigrants were portrayed as a viable source of that harm, but reported increased collective guilt and support for reparative action when immigrants were portrayed as a nonviable source of that harm. Effects on retributive and reparative action were differentially mediated by moral outrage and collective guilt, respectively. 

Nod to Kevin Lewis

The wisdom of Jeff Ely

Behold:

All we can hope now is that the current Congress looks at this sequester “debacle” and concludes that in order to make it work as intended the next time the threatened cuts have to be even bigger.

the full & self-recommending post is here.

Bret Stephens

I don't always agree with Bret Stephens.  But he nails so many things in this post...well, it's good.  That's what I'm sayin', it's good.  Excerpt:

Can we, as the GOP base, demand an IQ exam as well as a test of basic knowledge from our congressional and presidential candidates? This is not a flippant suggestion: There were at least five Senate seats in this election cycle that might have been occupied by a Republican come January had not the invincible stupidity of the candidate stood in the way.

On the subject of idiocy, can someone explain where’s the political gold in demonizing Latin American immigrants? California’s Prop 187, passed in 1994, helped destroy the GOP in a once-reliable state. Yet Republicans have been trying to replicate that fiasco on a national scale ever since.

If the argument is that illegal immigrants are overtaxing the welfare state, then that’s an argument for paring back the welfare state, not deporting 12 million people. If the argument is that these immigrants “steal” jobs, then that’s an argument by someone who either doesn’t understand the free market or aspires for his children to become busboys and chambermaids.

And if the argument is that these immigrants don’t share our values, then religiosity, hard work, personal stoicism and the sense of family obligation expressed through billions of dollars in remittances aren’t American values.

ATSRTWT

Whoops I did it again!

You know who really won Tuesday's Presidential election?

Nobody.

More people (myself included) voted for Nobody than for any other candidate.

These results show that Nobody has a clear mandate.

Wouldn't it be great if Nobody showed up for the inauguration?

Hat tip to Andrew for the great pie chart.

The Koreas at the Olympics

In response to my Grantland Olympic piece with LeBron, a few people have asked why we didn't specifically discuss  the Koreas. Maybe I'm missing the question, but the basic economic model seems to explain them very well.

From the 2000 games to date (including what has happened in London), North Korea has won 20 total Summer Olympic medals, while South Korea has pocketed 101.

South Korea has almost twice the population of the North (48.5 million to 22.6 million) and a per-capita income that is more than 15 times greater ($31,700 to $1,800).

Of North Koreas 20 medals, 15 have come in weightlifting and judo. These are examples of the "easy-pickings" sports we discussed in the piece. South Korea is also strong in tae-kwon-do and archery.

"you didn't write that"

I want to highlight the two best pieces I've read on the Obama "you didn't build that" - gate.

The first  comes from Josh Barro over at Forbes.

The second comes from Carolina's own Kindred Winecoff.

Both are highly recommended.

People, what do you think about this issue?

Is it an out of context molehill made into a mountain, or a disturbing peek behind the curtain?

You know where to let me know.

Escape velocity

We didn't reach it.

Revised numbers show GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 was 4.1%, which fell to 2% in the first quarter of this year. Meanwhile the initial estimate of second quarter 2012 growth is 1.5%.

At least the rate of decline is slowing!

Even though I have eyes to see and ears to hear exactly how crappy a candidate Mittens is, it's hard for me to think Obama can win with an economy this bad.

How Do Amnesic Patients Vote?

If someone has profound amnesia, what are that person's political opinions?  I know, it's tempting to say "Democrat," but let's be serious here.  It's an interesting question about how political opinions are stored.

Remembering and Voting: Theory and Evidence from Amnesic Patients

Jason Coronel et al., American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming

Abstract: One of the most prominent claims to emerge from the field of public opinion is that citizens can vote for candidates whose issue positions best reflect their own beliefs even when they cannot remember previously learned stances associated with the candidates. The current experiment provides a unique and powerful examination of this claim by determining whether individuals with profound amnesia, whose severe memory impairments prevent them from remembering specific issue information associated with any particular candidate, can vote for candidates whose issue positions come closest to their own political views. We report here that amnesic patients, despite not being able to remember any issue information, consistently voted for candidates with favored political positions. Thus, sound voting decisions do not require recall or recognition of previously learned associations between candidates and their issue positions. This result supports a multiple memory systems model of political decision making.

You say it's your birthday

Here at KPC, we'd like to wish a Happy 4th of July Birthday to Malia Obama and The Situation.

However, there is a special trio of famous 4th of July birthdays that deliciously symbolize the state of our Republic on this its birthday.

People I give you the following holiday equation:

 PT Barnum + Rube Goldberg + Meyer Lansky = American Politics in 2012!
 

Inevitability of Politics?

This is a truly remarkable performance.  The mindless state worship.... the condescension, the paternalism.  Breath-taking.  Here is what self-appointed dictator of others Dorman has to say for his big finish:

The non-reflexive-libertarian view does not require a market failure or a taste for paternalism.  It sees Conditional Cash Transers as policy initiatives to shift cultural norms regarding education and health.  (And, no, trying to shift norms is no more paternalistic than choosing to not shift them.  Welcome to the inevitability of politics.)  Recipients of transfers can reasonably be asked to meet education and health conditions because child-rearing is recognized as socially necessary work, and it is equitable to pay people for it provided it is done in a way that meets societal expectations.

Okay, so it actually works as follows...(continued below the fold)

Forkulus!

If true, this is pretty strange...  Since Porkulus didn't work, can we really count on Forkulus to do any better?

Excerpt:

Just a few days after announcing that his administration would no longer deport about 800,000 young illegal immigrants, you would think that President Obama would be received as something of a hero by NALEO, the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, before whom Obama is giving a speech this afternoon in Orlando. But the Secret Service wasn't taking any chances. As hundreds of Latino elected officials were enjoying their lunch at Disney's Contemporary Resort earlier today, it was announced that forks would be collected before Obama took the stage. It was also mentioned that knives, too, were entirely absent from the lunch for "a reason."

Nod to the Blonde

Mexican electoral politics is getting interesting

It seemed like back to the future. The PRI looked like they had the presidential election locked up without even having to resort to unplugging the vote-counting computers and improvising some results. The PAN is very weak partly due to their failing drug war and the PRD has somehow again nominated El Peje, who has slipped into the twilight zone.

But now word comes that the PRI is losing part of its electoral alliance. The party of the Mexican teachers union (i.e. Panal) is pulling its considerable support.


Why?

Because of a grass-roots revolt inside the PRI over plans to put the union head's daughter and son-in-law up as Senate candidates.

When informed that this was no longer on the table,  Elba Esther Gordillo pulled her party out of the alliance (from her home in San Diego) and showed why Mexican Spanish is the greatest language on the planet by saying:

"Pues entonces, que se vaya todo a la chingada"

Hat tip to Aguachile via Greg Weeks!

Not the Onion?

For our occasional "Not the Onion" feature...which of the following is a fake news story?

1. EEOC says that requiring people to have a high school diploma, or to be able to read, violates the Americans with Disabilities Act. After all, idiots need jobs, too! And there are only 100 seats in the US Senate.

2. N. Koreans called on to provide "human shield" for Kim Jong (Big) Un. Presumably, the herd of shielders will also be available to be butchered for food, in case Big Un gets peckish. The story does also note that there is a "burning issue" of food shortage. What's a Big Un to do?

3. New Fox network reality show to choose candidate for President of Iraq. The winner will receive $1 million in campaign cash, and several truckloads of dates to use as bribes.

4. Solar plant in Idaho unable to generate enough power to supply even itself. Utility company is going to cut off electricity to so-called "power" plant, because they can't pay the bill for all the electricity they are using up in the process of not generating electricity.

(Nod to the Blonde)

What We Have Here....Is a Failure....to ComMUNicate.

Henry Olsen speaks a bitter truth.

I have been saying that BHO can't possibly lose in 2012, because he will be running against the idiot Republicans. Not the one chosen as Prez candidate, but the US House.

Repubs insist on making the same mistake over and over again. When the voters see what the Dems are actually like, the voters go "ewwwwww!" But that is NOT an endorsement of the bunch of whack jobs that the Repubs trot out, or the ideas they have for running our wars, our bedrooms, our borders, or our trade policies.

Anyway, I think O, Henry has this right.

Vladette the Impaler?

So, Raleigh women are getting war chests? Does that look like this?

Aaaaieee! Run for lives! She will stick you with her war chest!

(Nod to the Blonde)

Not Only Not the Onion, But Not Monty Python

This goes well beyond a simple "not the Onion." This crosses well over into "not Monty Python" territory. (If you think I'm wrong, do watch this early planning meeting of "Occupy Wall Street," where they decide on their program, their demands, and who they will follow...)

Protesters at "Self-Absorbed Atlanta" (yes, they call it "Occupy Atlanta," but my title is more accurate) have set up a system where they can solve a bunch of problems that don't actually exist.

1. How to talk when you have a weak megaphone. Normal solution: get a better sound system. Self-Absorbed Atlanta solution: have a simultaneous translation, English to English.

2. How to signal approval. Normal solution: applause. SAA solution: little jazz hands waving, so no ones' voice is drowned out by applause. Of course, nobody is going to see the individual hands in the sea of hands, either. Either way, minority disagreement is going to be overwhelmed. EXCEPT: SAA requires unanimity! So you CAN see the one nut job/racist/star trek fan who wants to block things. Do NOT talk to the jazz hand that says "no!" (If you are not familiar with Jazz Hands, here is a quick guide to SAA hand signals!*)

3. Finally, if you can stand to watch for that long (I skipped after two minutes, I have to admit. SAA can really do some powerful auto-politicism), go to the 8.5 minute mark. Congressman John Lewis stood up to Bull Connor, and crossed the bridge at Selma on Bloody Sunday. But he was no match for the self-righteous idiocy of Self-Absorbed Atlanta.



As Pelsmin, who sent this in, notes: "This is a perfect illustration of how the extreme left's desire to liberate people from oppressive societal conventions like democracy will lead to something like the Soviet bureaucracy." And Soviet civil liberties, too! An invited speaker suffers the heckler's veto, in this video. Wow!

*Okay, no it wasn't. But I made you look. I think that video should replace Rick-rolling with "Tiny-rolling."

Double Fail

We all know that the Middle East is full of fail, but sometimes the fail is too good to pass up.

Consider first the "Palestinian Spring" story.

So here's an entrenched calling for his own ouster? After all the Arab spring involved deposing existing leaders.

Next up is that well known reformer King Abdullah giving women the right to vote.

Not in the upcoming election of course, but later. This will make a big difference in Saudi policies I'm sure as votes mean so much in the Kingdom.

PS: If you are wondering where I get off calling a geriatric despot a "reformer", it's right in the AP story linked to above:

"The right to vote is by far the biggest change introduced by Abdullah, considered a reformer, since he became the country's de facto ruler in 1995 during the illness of King Fahd."