Monday, May 12, 2008

Kyoto, Shmyoto: China Dwarfs It!

Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level

Maximilian Auffhammer & Richard Carson
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, May 2008, Pages 229-247

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

(nod to KL)


Tom said...

That's so frightening...

And depressing...

Or it would be if CO2 had a significant effect on climate.

Tom said...

The volume of soot they're pumping into the atmosphere is another matter.

Mungowitz said...

I guess I am a skeptic of most claims, on both sides.

If we burn a huge quantity of things, and change form of many elements from solids to gasses, it will have some long-term effect on the atmosphere.

In 100 years, we'll know the answer. I do not have any confidence in the claims of those who are certain the CO_2 has a huge effect. I also have no confidence in those who insist it will have NO effect.

My point was that ANY unilateral agreement, or agreement among a group of developed nations, amounts simply to self=flagellation. Fun, if you are into that sort of thing, but don't make me help you get your masochistic jollies.