2008 Election Analysis

Insiders, Outsiders, and Voters in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Melvin Hinich, Daron Shaw & Taofang Huang
Presidential Studies Quarterly, June 2010, Pages 264-285

Abstract: In 2008, both Barack Obama and John McCain repeatedly talked about "reform" and "change" on the campaign trail, presumably believing that voters would respond to a president who could challenge the established way of doing business. The authors gauge the significance of "reform" politics in 2008 through two analyses. First, they estimate a two-dimensional issue space, paying particular attention to the possibility of a reform /establishment dimension. Second, they consider whether voters (1) preferred reform candidates, and (2) saw Obama or McCain as credible reform candidates. The data indicate the existence of a reform-establishment dimension. However, neither Obama nor McCain effectively convinced voters that they were reformers.

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Did Bush Voters Cause Obama's Victory?
Arthur Lupia, PS: Political Science & Politics, April 2010, Pages 239-241

Abstract: In the 2008 election, Barack Obama's campaign brought many new voters to the polls. Were these new voters necessary for Obama's victory? In this study, I find that they were not. The basis of this finding is an examination of decisions made by people who voted for George W. Bush in 2004. I show that Bush voters' decisions not to vote or to support Obama were a sufficient condition for Obama's victory.

(Nod to Kevin L)