Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Today the cap, tomorrow the news

Roll over LeBron, and tell Chris Bosh the news!

LBJ will announce his location decision on a ONE HOUR SPECIAL on ESPN Thursday night!

Wow.

There are two considerations here that are not necessarily mutually exclusive. First, money. Cleveland can pay him substantially more than any other team. A lot of people (yes, I'm talking to you Tyler) minimize this, but consider that (a) salaries are likely to fall in the future, and (b) endorsement money has already fallen. LeBron is not (nor should he) going to take a low paying job for next year.

The question is, how does he weigh the tradeoff between the loss of money from leaving Cleveland with the increased chance of winning a title?

As currently constituted, none of the teams in the LeBron derby have great title hopes (sorry Chicago). Is Joakim Noah really that much better than Andy Varejao? Plus the Bulls now have a first time head coach and a GM who got physical with the last coach!

New Jersey (which was my initial pick for where he'd go) has hired the Lil General as their coach. The over/under for when Avery would be on LeBron's very last nerve is probably what, 15 minutes?

Miami has a good owner and a high status GM who has also been a high status coach. Playing with another superstar is easier said than done though.

Cleveland stinks. Besides LBJ, the only guys I like on that roster are JJ Hickson and Varejao. Plus, Byron Scott ain't no Red Aurbach!

That leaves the Knicks. They have made one bad move (that's a LOT of $$ for Amar'e, people), and it is far from obvious how LeBron would fit into D'Antoni's vaunted "system" (it only works for people with apostrophes in their name).

Wow, I think I am saying that LeBron is screwed on the championship front!

Ironically, the team that ruined his chances (Cleveland, by not building anything reasonable around him for 7 freaking years) is the team that can pay him the most, and money is all that LeBron can be certain about when making his decision.


6 comments:

Chris said...

I'd rather have Durant and not worry about Circus Lebron. Congrats on the extension with the most underrated star in the league...

Sean said...

I assume you hadn't heard the Bosh to Miami news when you posted this.
-"Is Joakim Noah really that much better than Andy Varejao?"
Yes.
Ummm... Derrick Rose. Already a superstar going into his third year. Chicago definitely has the talent for a title if Lebron is added.
This analysis seems way off. Anywhere he goes--as long as it's not Cleveland--he'll have a better supporting cast than he did last year. And he did lead Cleveland to the best record in the NBA.

John Thacker said...

First, money. Cleveland can pay him substantially more than any other team.

Yeah, but in Miami at least half of his playing money wouldn't be taxed at the state level. And if he can claim that his endorsement money was now made in Florida, that's huge.

Angus said...

Chris: thanks! I am thrilled with KD extending and that we are now season ticket holders.

Sean: Sorry, Bulls WAY over-rated. Derrick Rose is the guy who has to score on a crappy team. Yes, anywhere else will give him a better supporting cast, but my point was not ENOUGH BETTER TO LEAVE $30 MILLION ON THE TABLE!

John: If you can shelter your endorsement money in that way, you're right, it would be huge. Going to Miami with Wade and Bosh is just kind of giving up on being in the GOAT conversation though.

David said...

I thought the Bill Simmons column today was pithy -- if he does anything but stay in Cleveland, he's the biggest jerk ever.

I also thought the Deadspin was also convincing, arguing that he's a c***s*****r even if he stays.

Simmons makes the interesting point that if he goes to Miami, they are going to have trouble signing 9 more players with the scraps left over. It would be fun to see the three superstars (well, two superstars, point Simmons) try to make it, which they wouldn't.

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