Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Risk and Human Perception of Risk

I have a good friend who I met once in DC for a baseball game.  We were going to park near my hotel on Capitol Hill, and Metro to RFK where the Nats played back then (the new park opened in 2008).

My proposal was just to leave my bags in his car.  He insisted that I should check my bags at the hotel, because "Capitol Hill is so dangerous!"  Now, this was 2006, long after 9-11; Capitol Hill was NOT dangerous, at all, especially not during the day.

He brushed aside my protests.  "You don't live around here.  I'm always reading about crimes and violence in the paper."  I asked how he could read about NOT crimes and NOT violence in the paper, since those things are never there.  The fact is that the crime rate (robberies, assaults, burglaries, thefts) had fallen dramatically in the area, but that's not "news." (The comparison I was making is 2001 vs. 2006). 

Crimes and violence are news.  But no neighborhood in DC makes the top 25 "most dangerous" list.  Even though it's true "you always read about it."

More recently, I had a conversation with a staff person.  She says she never flies. I was sympathetic:  "Yes, the indignities of TSA and those cattle car planes are pretty bad."  She protested:  "No, that's not it.  I'm afraid of getting killed.  All you ever read about is all those crashes!"  Um....wow.  Yes, I suppose that's all you "read about."  Because "another 30,000 planes land safely" (the actual number of flights in the US each day) is not very newsworthy.  Flying is a ridiculously safe way to travel, compared to driving to work (which this woman does every day).

The fact is that the "epidemic" of school shootings is not an epidemic at all.  They are very infrequent, occur for essentially random causes, and are not even worth considering as a public policy problem.  Violence, deaths, injuries...almost any measure you can think has gotten much better, at the same time that we are obsessed with school shootings.

Would I be upset if my son, or someone I knew, were killed?  Of course.  Do I have the right to divert public policy discussions from real problems, like drunken driving or the insane war on drugs, because of a low-probability random accident less likely than a lightning strike?  Of course not.


4 comments:

ThinkRationally said...

Does Human Perception of Risk Reflect Reality?

While it is true that both events described are high impact, but extremely low probability, I think a further dimensioning of the data may be required to truly understand whether human perception or risk (qualitative) aligns with the statistics (quantitative), and whether public policy is required.

Airplane Industry:
Without actually performing statistical analysis of the data, it appears as if there are an increasing number of accidents over time, which of course makes sense given the increasing maturity of the airplane industry, globalization, etc.

List of Airline Accidents since 1920s:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft

However, if I were to further dimension the data by the number of accidents with 50 or more fatalities, the number over the last 25 years as declined significantly which reflects improving safety standards and an even lower probability of the event occurring today.

List of Accidents w/ at least 50 fatalities:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_accidents_and_incidents_resulting_in_at_least_50_fatalities

Conclusion: No additional public policy required

School Shootings:
Alternatively, the data associated with school shootings may tell a different story. Data on school shootings has been collected going back to 1760, which is the first "reported" school shooting. While the frequency of school shootings in the US increases over time similar to the data associated with airplane crashes, the frequency and number of fatalities associated with the school shootings (mass killings) is alarming.

In 1960s University of Texas had a mass shooting, followed by Kent State in 1970; however, since Columbine, the number of mass shootings has increased substantially. Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, Santana High School, University of Arizona, Red Lake, Northern Illinois, Huntsville, Oikos University (California),Santa Monica are all within the last 15 years.

Is further public policy required? At this point, further research would need to be conducted to ensure consistency of data collection methods, methodology, etc, but certainly perception of risk may reflect the new reality.

Violent video games, Social Media, News Media Coverage, Anti-Depressants, and Terrorism are all potential variables that should be included in a multi-variable regression analysis. Even if the data was conclusive, what policy would be developed to mitigate the risk? Solving that problem is no simple task.....

List of US School Shootings since 1760, including School “Attacks”:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_school_shootings_in_the_United_States

US Attorney General – Mass Shooting Increase
http://rt.com/usa/holder-mass-shootings-triple-519/

Unknown said...


精力剤:http://www.hikanpou.com
精力剤通販:http://www.hikanpou.com
VigRx:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/VigRx.html
D10催情剤:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/D10.html
花痴:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/花痴.html
威哥王:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/威哥王.html
巨人倍増:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/巨人倍増.html
「精力剤通販」から精力剤や媚薬やダイエットや漢方薬商品をお選びいただけます。
淫インモラル:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/immoral.html
インモラル:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/immoral.html
妖姫:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/youhi.html
RU486:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/RU486.html
紅蜘蛛:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/紅蜘蛛.html
D10:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/D10.html
D10媚薬:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/D10.html
三鞭粒:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/weige.html
絶對高潮:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/絶對高潮.html
FLY D5:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/蒼蝿水.html
D5原液:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/蒼蝿水.html
蒼蝿水:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/魔力蒼蝿水5.html
三便宝:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/三便宝.html
蟻力神:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/蟻力神1.html
三體牛鞭:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/三体牛鞭.html
三体牛鞭:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/三体牛鞭.html
勃動力三體牛鞭:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/三体牛鞭.html
狼1号:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/狼1号.html
狼一号:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/狼1号.html
五便宝:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/五便宝.html
蔵八宝:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/蔵八宝.html
男宝:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/男宝5箱.html
新一粒神:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/新一粒神.html
リドスプレー:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/LIDOSPRAY.html
ビグレックス:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/VigRx.html
vigrxプラス:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/VigRx.html
Wenickman:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/Wenickman.html
MaxMan:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/MaxMan.html
情愛芳香劑:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/rush724.html
壮天根:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/壮天根.html
魔根:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/魔根金中草.html
夜夜堅:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/夜夜堅.html
壮陽一号:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/壮陽一号.html
マカ:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/MACA.html
黒倍王:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/黒倍王.html
花之欲:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/花之欲.html
美人豹:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/美人豹5.html
妻之友:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/妻之友.html
福源春:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/福源春.html
蟻王:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/アリ王蟻王,ANTKING.html
アリ王:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/アリ王蟻王,ANTKING.html
SEX DROPS:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/SEXDROPS5.html
片仔廣:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/片仔廣.html
へんしこう:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/片仔廣.html
維尼好:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/維尼好消毒液.html
縮陰膏:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/縮陰膏.html
牛黄清心丸:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/牛黄清心丸.html
同仁堂牛黄清心丸:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/牛黄清心丸2.html
消渇丸:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/消渇丸.html
999皮炎平:http://www.hikanpou.com/product//999皮炎平.html
同仁烏鶏白鳳丸:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/烏鶏白鳳丸.html
婦科千金片:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/婦科千金片.html
セフラジン:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/cefradine.html
終極痩身:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/zhongjishoushen.html
天天素:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/天天素.html
スーパーファット:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/スーパーファットNEWSUPERFATBURNIN.html
SPANISCHE FLIEGE D5:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/SPANISCHE-FLIEGED5.html
御秀堂:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/御秀堂養顔痩身.html
韓国痩身一号:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/韓国痩身一号.html
痩身1号:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/韓国痩身一号.html
曲美:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/xinqumei.html
大印象:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/dayinxiang.html
碧生源:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/bishengyuan.html
V26:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/V26.html
避妊薬:http://www.hikanpou.com/pills/避妊中絶.html
中絶薬:http://www.hikanpou.com/pills/避妊中絶.html
精力剤:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/精力剤.html
レディーチャイナ:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/蒼蝿水5.html
ed治療薬:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/ED治療.html

Unknown said...

精力剤:http://www.hikanpou.com
精力剤:http://www.hakanpo.com
シアリス:http://www.cialismall.com
Cialis:http://www.cialismall.com
cialis20mg:http://www.cialismall.com
cialis100mg:http://www.cialismall.com
cialisの服用:http://www.cialismall.com
cialis20:http://www.cialismall.com
レビトラ:http://www.levitramall.com
levitra:http://www.levitramall.com
威哥王:http://威哥王.kanpocom.com
威哥王:http://xn--kwrt2jp9z.kanpocom.com
巨人倍増:http://巨人倍増.hikanpou.com
巨人倍増:http://xn--gmq15an1qquf.hikanpou.com
紅蜘蛛:http://紅蜘蛛.hakanpo.com
紅蜘蛛:http://xn--19zl5rhf.hakanpo.com
「精力剤通販」から精力剤や媚薬やダイエットや漢方薬商品をお選びいただけます。




催情剤:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/D10.html
催情:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/D10.html
勃起不全:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/勃起不全薬.html
勃起障害:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/勃起不全薬.html
ペニス増大:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/性器増大.html
早漏防止:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/早漏防止.html
ED治療:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/ED治療.html
ED改善:http://www.hikanpou.com/seiryokuzai/ED治療.html
媚薬:http://www.hikanpou.com/biyaku/女性媚薬.html
催情粉:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/紅蜘蛛30.html
漢方薬:http://www.hikanpou.com/kanpouyaku/漢方薬.html
催淫カプセル:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/絶對高潮6.html
催情剤:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/D10.html
奇果:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/奇果.html
LIDO SPRAY:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/LIDOSPRAY.html
アフリカ超人:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/chaoren.html
徳国黒金:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/徳国黒金BLACKGOLD.html
蔵秘男宝:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/zangminanbao.html
蔵秘雄精:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/蔵秘雄精.html
夜狼神:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/yelangshen.html
中華牛鞭:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/中華牛鞭.html
モチベーター:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/Motivat.html
力多精:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/力多精.html
金博郎:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/JinBoLang.html
蔵秘男宝:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/zangminanbao.html
好漢哥:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/好漢哥.html
立挺90度:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/立挺90度.html
男根増長素:http://www.hikanpou.com/product/ngzzw.html

Unknown said...

威哥王:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro96.html
巨人倍増:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro138.html
花痴:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro312.html
D10催情剤:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro282.html
蟻力神:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro132.html
三便宝:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro149.html
D10媚薬:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro282.html
SPANISCHE FLIEGE D5:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro308.html
紅蜘蛛:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro311.html
曲美:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro25.html
妖姫:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro481.html
淫インモラル:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro482.html
インモラル:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro482.html
紅蜘蛛:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro311.html
威哥王:http://威哥王.kanpocom.com
D10催情剤:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro282.html
花痴:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro312.html
妖姫:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro481.html
淫インモラル:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro482.html
淫インモラル:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro482.html
インモラル:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro482.html
絶對高潮:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro133.html

VigRx:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro222.html
RU486:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro113.html
D10媚薬:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro282.html
三體牛鞭:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro331.html
三体牛鞭:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro331.html
狼1号:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro330.html
狼一号:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro330.html
夜狼神:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro574.html
情愛芳香劑:http://hakanpo.com/p/pro551.html
アフリカ超人:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro573.html
中華牛鞭:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro167.html
蔵秘雄精:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro575.html
悦可亭:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro118.html
女性用バイアグラ:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro579.html
止血薬カルバゾクロム錠:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro580.html
媚薬:http://www.hakanpo.com/CL05/38.html
精力剤:http://www.hakanpo.com/CL02
天天素:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro58.html
リドスプレー:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro374.html
LIDO SPRAY:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro374.html
花之欲:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro292.html
ビグレックス:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro386.html
VVK:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro325.html
男露888:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro243.html
Wenickman:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro325.html
MaxMan:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro97.html
vigrxプラス:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro222.html
モチベーター:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro327.html
勃動力三體牛鞭:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro331.html
中華牛鞭:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro167.html
新一粒神:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro476.html
五便宝:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro157.html
三鞭粒:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro450.html
男宝:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro375.html
魔根:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro360.html
壮天根:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro329.html
黒倍王:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro337.html
九鞭粒:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro437.html
男露888:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro243.html
西班牙蒼蝿水:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro284.html
西班牙蒼蝿粉:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro254.html
性霸2000:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro147.html
Xing霸:http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro147.html
情愛芳香劑 :http://www.hakanpo.com/p/pro551.html