Showing posts with label agreeing to disagree. Show all posts
Showing posts with label agreeing to disagree. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Symbolism, Posturing, and the Desire to Matter

In the 1980s, the "Divestment" movement was pretty strong.  I wrote this about one battle in that war, at Dartmouth.

Anyway, the logic is that activists can't do much about conditions in South Africa (or Israel, or wherever the Great Eye of Leftism is currently focused, from the Dark Tower of the Times editorial page, ready to call out the orcs from the MSNBC "news"room) directly.  But they can take decisive and effective action by [XXX].  And I have to admit, I pretty much never understand the connection between whatever their chosen XXX is and the actual thing they say they care about.

Of course, the answer is that it's the doing, because it shows the caring.  The connection, in terms of actual effect, is of secondary importance.  What they are going for is to show that they are non-conformists (by dressing in exactly identical ripped jeans and organic free range t-shirts, and being indignant in exactly the same way as everyone else) and that they are good people.  If you disagree with them, even by saying that you doubt their action has any consequence, then you are  bad people.   Facts don't matter at all, because it's the symbolism of the action that matters.  The supposed target is far away and not all that important.  What's important is the mutual congratulations of the activists themselves:  "You are so....ACTIVE!"  "No, YOU are more active.  Really.  I admire your activism!" and so on.

So, a piece, in the Tower of the Great Eye itself, on the utter pointlessness of divestment, at least in terms of effect. 

I don't think it will matter much, of course.  The point is not the effect of action, but the symbolic unity of calling people to action.  This is true for any religion, of course, but it's surprising that the Left does not recognize its religiosity.

In spring semester 1991 I was teaching at UNC, and there was an anti-war activist in my class.  He came up often after class to interrogate me about my views on the war.  I was  not terribly pro-war, but said that--given our energy policy, our commitments to Allies, and the fact that there was an actual UN Resolution (661) that gave at least face legitimacy to ending the occupation by force--I thought his protests were not very useful.

He was enraged by this, and came up with complex reasons why in fact the protests were the key to getting Iraq to leave Kuwait.  Force could never work, but protests by hairy smelly middle class Carrborovians...THAT would show Saddam a thing or two.

We had class on the morning of February 28.  This was the morning after the day when the Iraqis tried to leave, and got smashed like bugs on the "Highway of Death."

I was glad that (it appeared) the war was over.  But Mr. Active was ecstatic, and ready for me to eat crow.  "We did it!  We stopped the war!  Our protests made the difference!"  He was actually standing up in class, and did not let us start the lecture until he got to make his point.

As far as I could tell (he was pretty fired up) the logic was this:  A. There was a war. B. Beard-boy and several of his friends had protested the war.  Earnestly.  C. The war ended.  D. Beard-boy & Co. were heroes. 

Now, I'll admit that if B caused C then D is at least plausible.  So that is the heart of the question.  He did eventually calm down enough to admit that his PARTICULAR protest may not have ended the war, but the SYMBOL of his protest was important.  In fact, the causal relation between all the protests and the end of the war was symbolic.  The symbol of the near-total destruction of the capacity of the Iraqi Army, and the actual destruction of the Iraqi Air Force, were not part of his "end the war peacefully" narrative.  He had said the war should end, and the war had ended.  I assume he also believed in Santa Claus (it's a similar logic...)

That doesn't mean that all protests are pointless, of course.  The Civil Rights protests were important, if only because they were televised and revealed the savagery of the southern apartheid system.  Protests in the Phillipines, Central Europe, Egypt, etc. have caused change, though not always for the better.

The problem that I see is that "protest" in the U.S., especially by U.S. college students, has been relegated to a kind of extra-curricular activity.  It's fine that it's pointless, because it's like an internship.  The whole object of the exercise is the improvement of the protester, not the effectiveness of the protest.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

"Severe Adverse Outcomes": She Beat Him Like He Stole Something

Not sure how they got this past IRB.  Clearly caused extreme physical danger for husband. An experiment.

...they found a couple who were willing to record their quality of life on a scale of 1 to 10. They told the man, who wanted to be happy more than right, about the purpose of the study and asked him to agree with every opinion and request his wife had without complaint, even when he profoundly didn’t agree. The wife was not informed of the purpose of the study and just asked to record her quality of life. 

Things went rapidly downhill for the couple. The man’s quality-of-life scores fell, from 7 to 3, over the course of the experiment. The wife’s scores rose modestly, from 8 to 8.5, before she became hostile to the idea of recording the scores. Rather than causing harmony, the husband’s agreeableness led to the wife becoming increasingly critical* of what he did and said (in the husband’s opinion).

After 12 days he broke down, made his wife a cup of tea (New Zealand is, after all, a Commonwealth country), and explained the experiment. At this point the Data Safety Monitoring Committee, as the researchers called it, stopped the study because of “severe adverse outcomes.”

*(Ed's Note:  Clearly this is right.  Often, the lady wants to know what you actually think, so she can correct you.  She doesn't know what you think, but it is clearly wrong.  Agreeing is very dangerous at this point.  Give her what she wants, before someone gets hurt!)

UPDATE:  The actual study.  

UPDATE II:  Windwheel's commentary is truly awesome.  Please do savor the comments.  Well beyond psychosis, he crosses into a realm of mystic lyricism.  As always, thanks for providing such excellent entertainment!


Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Look out Hillary, another hat has hit the ring

Apparently top-down development would work just fine if we only had the right leader at the World Bank, and Jeff Sachs has someone in mind.....

Jeff Sachs!

People, did you know that the WB's "central mission is to reduce global poverty and ensure that global development is environmentally sound and socially inclusive."

Shall we take a Python break?

"NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition! Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise...."

Don't get me wrong, Jeff has a good point that the US has not exactly covered itself in glory with the folks we've put in charge of the World Bank or with our use of the institution to promote cold war goals. But the "all we need are the right people in charge" argument is just so incredibly superficial and lame, whether applied to political systems or vast bureaucracies.

Jeff concludes by offering his vision of where the Bank would go under a Sachs-ocracy:

Its priorities should include agricultural productivity; mobilization of information technologies for sustainable development; deployment of low-carbon energy systems; and quality education for all, with greater reliance on new forms of communication to reach hundreds of millions of under-served students.

Oh, my.

With all due respect, can we not just put Barber Conable's ghost back in charge?





Friday, February 24, 2012

Promises, promises

As we know, the Fed has announced an inflation ceiling of 2% AND that it will keep short term rates close to zero at least until the later part of 2014.

I believe these two commitments are contradictory if we manage to achieve a decent economic recovery, and it is looking more and more like we are finally getting exactly that.

Here is a chart of the implied 2 year ahead level of inflation expectations derived using yields on inflation protected securities (TIPS):



The red line is the Fed's 2% ceiling.

People, can I get a YIKES?

The source for this chart is here, the hat tip goes to LeBron, and the source also argues that markets are strongly pricing in a Fed rate increase in 2013.

At this point, unless the recovery falters, I don't think the Fed will keep EITHER of its two promises




Monday, February 13, 2012

Football fallout

Me and LeBron's Grantland article has stirred up the pot at least a little bit. I was on Cleveland sports talk radio (92.3 "The Fan") where the host told me that America has become "a nation of wussies". Tyler briefly acquired a Twitter Stalker!

We were pilloried by Mike Florio, treated sympathetically in San Antonio and quoted neutrally in the NY Times' football blog.

One of the best statements I've read, post-article, comes from the comments on Florio's rant:


"the data shows that younger players are more at risk because their brains are developing and even though the velocity of a NFL type hit does not exist, it doesn’t take nearly as much to cause damage. It’s actually the repetitive nature during the younger years that leaves these guys so exposed. Most play from 5 y/o on to 30….25 years of straight head knocking. The lawsuits will come from a parent of a deceased or severely injured kids whose coaches wouldn’t listen to the law. Or knuckle head parents who say it didn’t kill me so it should be ok for my kid….then boom brain injury. I believe we are looking at the pinnacle of the sport. Federal, State, and local laws will become stricter, and rightfully so. You don’t need a non-neurologist on the side of a Pee Wee football game saying, ah he just had his bell rung. Insurance premiums for football is already pricey, wait till a few lawsuits make it through."



Sunday, January 22, 2012

Early to bed, never to rise?

"And yet while young men's failures in life are not penalizing them in the bedroom, their sexual success may, ironically, be hindering their drive to achieve in life."

 More here.

 Discuss?

Sunday, October 16, 2011

I'm down with OWS!

I, Angus, just want to tell you all that, contrary to my good friend and co-blogger Mungowitz, I am totally down with and supportive of the OWS movement.

The ever stronger link between big finance and big government is really hurting this country, and who knows, maybe OWS will start the ball rolling somehow to improve things.

Even if it doesn't, who are they really hurting?

I say let 'em protest in peace with a minimum of mockery.

Heck, if there was an Occupy Norman, I might check it out. Maybe find some elevators where we could push all the buttons at once....

Sunday, July 31, 2011

The culture that is China: Ip Man edition

or MAN!, the Chinese still really hate the Japanese.

Mrs. A and I watched the "bio-pic" Ip Man over the weekend. I really liked the film, great fighting and decent acting.

However, it's more propaganda than bio.

In the movie, Ip Man (who ended up being Bruce Lee's master) is driven out of China to Hong Kong by the sadistic Japanese military after crunching a ton of Japanese martial artists.

In reality, Ip Man was driven out of China to Hong Kong by Mao and his minions who were not happy with how rich Ip's family was.

Ooops.

Good luck getting THAT movie made or shown in China.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Wow, things are worse than I thought

The "Keil Institute for the World Economy" gave its "Global Economy Prize" this year to......


I can only conclude that either (a) The Onion has hacked the WSJ or (b) the world economy is in very very very bad shape indeed.

JCT splains exactly what he's done to earn the prize:

"We have thereby been safeguarding the euro's purchasing power," Mr. Trichet said in Kiel. The ECB will continue to do what is necessary to deliver price stability, Mr. Trichet said. "There is no moment of complacency," he added. "We have to deliver price stability."

Previous winners of this prestigious prize include Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, Gordon Gono, Andrew Mellon and Georg Friedrich Knapp.





Saturday, June 18, 2011

Code-breakers

People, I am not a programming genius by any stretch of the imagination. That said, I've done work with a variety of co-authors (Mark Perry, Mrs. Angus, Rodolfo Cermeno, Olan Henry & Nilss Olekalns ) where we write our own code to estimate multivariate GARCH in mean models, which so far are not available as pre-programmed packages in STATA or EVIEWS or SAS.

As a result, I get a fair amount of requests to give code to others. Amazingly to me, many of these requests come from PhD students.

My feeling is that if you are getting a PhD in economics you should write your own code for your dissertation. I usually tell students that and decline to give them the code, but offering to answer any specific questions that they may have about their own coding efforts.

The most bizarre situation I've faced was with a researcher from a central bank in Latin America. He asked for some code and I provided it, but he couldn't get from the code specifically written for my problem and data to a solution to his problem and data. So he asked if he sent me his data would I code up and run the estimations his bosses wanted.

I'd be very interested in hearing in the comments from other researchers how they handle requests to provide code along with any good code-sharing stories.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Lies, damn lies, & business journalism

So S&P's attempt to avoid indictment by threatening Uncle Sam's credit rating caused the stock market to fall yesterday. At least that's the near universal narrative of the business press.

There's just one problem; it's horses*%t!

First, stock markets were down in Asia and Europe before the US market opened and before S&P announced.

Second, prices of US government debt, the very thing S&P was attacking, ROSE yesterday as did the Dollar vs. the Euro.

I think it's far more likely that the increased prospects of imminent default in Europe was driving events, than was S&Ps posturing, but the plain fact of the matter is that WE DON'T KNOW what drives short run movements in markets, and the last time I checked, post hoc ergo propter hoc was still an egregious logical fallacy, no matter how often the business press uses it.

Saturday, April 02, 2011

The culture that is New Jersey: booty call edition

Look, I am not saying this is wrong or right, but I am pretty sure that it's illegal:

Pretty funny that they want to go back to the "Boardwalk Empire" days. That will take more than flapper costumes and age discrimination.

Prohibition?

Segregation?

Ah, New Jersey. Is there anything you won't do?

Monday, March 28, 2011

Not just our S.O.B.

It turns out that the US government will have to get in line to give love to "reformer" Bashar Assad:

Turns out that Assad "is a humanist, doctor, educated in London, in no way an extremist; he is a man of great human sensitivity,"

--Hugo Chavez


Why do so many hereditary dictators in training like to add "educated in London" to their resumes??

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

All you need is a good press agent

Amazing headline from Reuters: "PUTIN FROLICS WITH SNOW LEOPARD"

Here's the lede:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin frolicked with the real-life mascot of the 2014 Winter Olympics over the weekend, an endangered snow leopard that had been injured in the valleys of central Siberia.

The cat is called "Mongol" by local scientists who rescued it after a harrowing ordeal at the hands of poachers.

Putin broke a business trip to Russia's Far East to visit it in the Khakassia region some 3,500 km (2,000 miles) east of Moscow.


Ummm, OK, so Vlade is a judo black belt, I guess he is well equipped to frolic with a full grown wild animal with a full set of teeth and claws. Maybe he will ride it? or carry it on his shoulders? or just snuggle with it?

Now here's a link to the video showing what passes for frolicking when you are the dictator of Russia and the international press LOVES you.

Apparently frolic actually means to pose crouching for the cameras 10 feet away from the perimeter of the cage holding the snow leopard!

Plenty of other memorable Putin moments in the video as well!!

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Old Ben Barber loves him some Saif!

An amazing interview is here. Ben sure does not like anyone to think that he may be wrong about anything. Also, he has some very strange views about what a Ph.D. dissertation is. Here he is responding to plagiarism charges against his homie Saif:

It's a dissertation; I have read it. There are about 600 books quoted at length or paraphrased -- it's a doctoral dissertation; you're supposed to cite people! You're not allowed to have your own views


600 books quoted at length? Not allowed to have your own views?


YIKES!!

oh and by the way, check the second link. Home-boy plagiarized in a big big way!

Barber is a joke.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Welfare or Insurance?

Bob Samuelson and Mark Thoma are at it again. Samuelson claims that Social Security is welfare, while Thoma says that it's just plain old insurance. He repeatedly compares it to fire insurance.

Let's start with a list of "Why Social Security is NOT like fire insurance":

1. It pays off the same amount whether you need it or not.

2. The "premia" are not risk based in any meaningful way.

3. If you don't "buy" it, you go to jail.

4. There is only one company that "sells" it.

5. The "insurer" can unilaterally change the terms of both the premia and the payouts with no recourse for the "insured".

Ok, so it's not really insurance. Then what is it?

Well it's two distinct components. The first is the payroll tax, the second is the retirement benefits. The payroll tax falls on the relatively young, and the benefits are paid to the relatively old.

The confounding problem is that many people believe the payroll taxes they pay go to fund the benefits they will receive, which is completely untrue. The payroll taxes go to pay current expenses of the US government. They are just a tax on labor. The government is spending every penny of those payroll taxes to pay for current expenditures. There is no meaningful economic sense in which the current payroll taxes can even be said to be exclusively funding the current retirement benefit payouts!

Going back to the (bad) insurance analogy, the insurer is free to use your premia to buy fighter jets and space shuttles!!

So, is Social Security welfare then? Well the payroll tax component certainly isn't. The retirement benefits part certainly is.

But I will say this; it's a type of welfare that I think we should have! Not in it's current form, but as a means-tested safety net, and without the strange fiction that it's financed by the payroll tax.

Keep a modified (for the poor only) safety net, drop the payroll tax.

Replace the revenue by cutting spending elsewhere (you're on your own President Karzai!!).

A 12.4% tax on labor is a dumb tax in an era where we are worried about employment and middle class incomes and sending social security checks to Warren Buffett and Bill Gates is, if anything, even dumber!


Monday, March 07, 2011

Should movies be subsidized?

Michael Kinsley says no. Interfluidity says yes.

Interfluidity is quite right that subsidies will increase the supply of movies, and seems to consider that a good thing.

I have to differ. The motion picture industry is a huge rent seeking contest that is socially inefficient, just like professional sports. A large number of people dedicate themselves to trying to get a desirable position and the vast majority of them will (a) fail, and (b) be quite unprepared to do something else.

Increasing the number of movies, just like expanding a professional sports league will most likely draw many more people into the rent seeking contest than it will provide positions for, thus making matters worse.

Los Angeles and New York are already teeming with waitress / cab-driver / hobo "actors" and "screenwriters" who are smart, talented individuals, well prepared for jobs they'll never get and generating large social losses by not having gotten a more general preparation and more productive jobs. Do we really want to encourage these kinds of wasteful outcomes in New Mexico and Michigan as well?

Occupations that generate rent seeking contests should be taxed, not subsidized!

We should be nudging people OUT not in to the motion picture industry.


Thursday, March 03, 2011

What's in a name?

Well according to Thomas Friedman, President O helped kick start the Arab awakening simply by having the middle name Hussein:


“Hmmm, let’s see. He’s young. I’m young. He’s dark-skinned. I’m dark-skinned. His middle name is Hussein. My name is Hussein. His grandfather is a Muslim. My grandfather is a Muslim. He is president of the United States. And I’m an unemployed young Arab with no vote and no voice in my future.”


Journalist, please!