de gustibus non est disputatum

Tyler points us to Robin Hanson's suggestion for your charitable contributions. To wit:


"The biggest single charity donation I’ve made so far is ~$100. But now I’m donating $5000 to an exceptionally worthy cause. And I suggest you donate too. Here’s my cause:"

Any guesses, people? Sanitation in the Sudan? AIDS in Africa? Education in Ecuador? Womens' Rights in Waziristan?

 Hell no!

It's this.

Yes, a different way to try and preserve your brain so that you can "live" forever.


I want to be judgemental, I really do.

But Mrs. A and I give roughly 50% of our charitable donations towards animal welfare (the other half goes to aid/development projects in Africa, Latin America & Asia), and I'm sure many people would criticize us for that choice.

I will say though that I would much rather have access to my 30 year old brain right now than access to my, shall we say, 80 year old brain in 2666.

Now you have no excuse

A little over a year ago, I recommended the book "Red Plenty". At that time it was not released in the US (I got it via Amazon UK). Now it's out in paperback and kindle at the "regular" Amazon store.

Here is a recent review from the NY Times.

The book is amazing. Check it out, people.

Look out Hillary, another hat has hit the ring

Apparently top-down development would work just fine if we only had the right leader at the World Bank, and Jeff Sachs has someone in mind.....

Jeff Sachs!

People, did you know that the WB's "central mission is to reduce global poverty and ensure that global development is environmentally sound and socially inclusive."

Shall we take a Python break?

"NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition! Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise...."

Don't get me wrong, Jeff has a good point that the US has not exactly covered itself in glory with the folks we've put in charge of the World Bank or with our use of the institution to promote cold war goals. But the "all we need are the right people in charge" argument is just so incredibly superficial and lame, whether applied to political systems or vast bureaucracies.

Jeff concludes by offering his vision of where the Bank would go under a Sachs-ocracy:

Its priorities should include agricultural productivity; mobilization of information technologies for sustainable development; deployment of low-carbon energy systems; and quality education for all, with greater reliance on new forms of communication to reach hundreds of millions of under-served students.

Oh, my.

With all due respect, can we not just put Barber Conable's ghost back in charge?

It's just me and Christy, me and Christy, me, me, me & Christy!

Last week, I begged to differ with a guy claiming that manufacturing was indeed special because people earned a wage premium simply by entering the sector, or as he put it, that there were "labor market rents" associated with getting a manufacturing job.

Turns out Christina Romer has my back!

She points out that (a) on the low skill end, manufacturing pay premia have shrunk and likely will continue to shrink, and (b) increased technical sophistication in manufacturing has created more jobs that require higher skills. She points out that the number of manufacturing workers with some college education has more than doubled.  Thus, subsidizing manufacturing is NOT likely to reduce income inequality in the US.

Romer attributes the shrinking premium to low skill workers to increased international competition, while I attributed it to both that factor and the decline of union strength. She doesn't point out that there is an upside to increased international competition, namely lower priced goods for American consumers.

it might take half the country

North Korea (i.e. Kim Jong Un) has called for its citizens to form a human shield around its leader (i.e. Kim Jong Un)!

Given that many North Koreans eat dirt and sticks, and that KJU looks like this:

I am wondering, how many North Koreans does it take to make a human shield for "The Great Consumer"?

I am waiting for KJU's catchphrase to come out. I loved his dad's: "Let's eat two meals a day"

A Year in Review

I thought about doing a "year in review" post.

But I couldn't have come close to doing it this well.

So, with props to KPC friend Prof. Dave Collum, the year in review!

Billy Beane, John Paulson & the January effect

My second Grantland column with LeBron is now up. This time we made the main masthead instead of being in The Triangle! Still no mention of Rex Chapman though.

by the way, FU, we're taking Hong Kong

Here it is people, a hip-hop history of China:

with a Greece-y spoon

Wow. Version N minus k of the Greek bailout has arrived (where k is a positive integer). You can read the full text here.

I want to talk about the losers in this process.

The biggest loser is JC Trichet and the ECB. Man they really had to eat it. JC thundered "no default ever" to whoever would stick a microphone in front of him and threatened that in the event of a default, the ECB couldn't hold Greek debt. Well, now we (a) have a default and (b) the ECB will continue to hold, and add to its holdings of Greek debt. By acting like he was large and in charge when he was not, JCT has made himself look like a clown and damaged whatever positive reputation the ECB still had.

The next big loser is the sovereign CDS market. We have an obvious default, that according to my understanding (and that of the WSJ), will somehow NOT be creating a credit event. That is, holders of CDSs on Greek debt will NOT be getting payouts. In other words, the sovereign CDS market has been revealed to be a mug's game and may find it hard to survive. Governments may think they have won against the evil speculators, but all this victory will really do is drive up interest rates on sovereign debt (ceteris paribus, y'all).

The next loser is the German taxpayer, especially if the Eurolords actually follow through with their threat of a "Marshall plan for Greece".

Hey Angus! How about a word or two on the winners.

Well, Ireland and Portugal are big winners as they got the interest rates on their bailout loans cut dramatically without having to make any additional changes to policies. A good deal for them.

I also think holders of Greek debt are winners here, as they can lock in a decent return on their holdings for a not too bad haircut. I would take one of the deals.

Any other losers?

Finally and amazingly, Greece itself is again a loser in its own bailout. Some things never change I guess. They still have a mountain of debt, they still face prolonged austerity and God help them if the Eurolords follow through with their politically correct, bureaucratically bungled, economically useless version of a Marshall plan for that beleaguered island.

The wisdom of the American businessman

People, did you know that California was bankrupt? Me neither.

Did you know that the Chinese government "manages its economy with incredible care"? Me neither.

Do you know that the US really needs to make some cool five year plans like China (and the Soviet Union, and North Korea and Cuba)? Me neither.

That is, I didn't know any of these gems until I read Robert J. Herbold's Op Ed in today's WSJ, which is titled "China vs. America: Which is the Developing Country?" (I am not making any of this up).

Here is a link to the article and let me highly recommend it as a fun way to start your day.

If I understood how to do it, this would be a great "grand game" opportunity.