The Illusion of Competence

This may explain why Duke's Lit Department has a "Political Economy" Program.

Or why I think I am really, really good at Putt-Putt Golf.  That sort of thing.


The Curse of Expertise: When More Knowledge Leads to Miscalibrated Explanatory Insight 

Matthew Fisher & Frank Keil
Cognitive Science, forthcoming

Abstract: Does expertise within a domain of knowledge predict accurate self-assessment of the ability to explain topics in that domain? We find that expertise increases confidence in the ability to explain a wide variety of phenomena. However, this confidence is unwarranted; after actually offering full explanations, people are surprised by the limitations in their understanding. For passive expertise (familiar topics), miscalibration is moderated by education; those with more education are accurate in their self-assessments (Experiment 1). But when those with more education consider topics related to their area of concentrated study (college major), they also display an illusion of understanding (Experiment 2). This “curse of expertise” is explained by a failure to recognize the amount of detailed information that had been forgotten (Experiment 3). While expertise can sometimes lead to accurate self-knowledge, it can also create illusions of competence.

Nod to Kevin Lewis.

Is There ANYTHING That Could Persuade These People BHO is a Bad President?

This is funny enough, I suppose.  But I do wonder if all the people who said, "Obama has to wait until after the election.  Then....THEN he'll start doing the right thing!" still believe that.  At some point, you have to recognize that OBAMA is the zombie.


 
Thanks to Kevin Lewis

Corn to Ethanol Fiasco

As the WaPo noted, the US has a wide variety of idiotic "go green!" energy policies. It makes a little more sense once you realize that sacrifice and wasted resources are actually the goal, as in any religious exercise.

But the very worst is likely the requirement that companies find a way to use more bio-fuels.  And in THIS special place of stupidity, the focus on corn-based ethanal is the worst, of the worst, of the worst.

Given the amount of petroleum based fertilizer we use to raise corn, the environmental return on converting from oil to ethanol fuel is about 0.8.  That is, all things considered, the net impact of ethanol bio-fuel is actually harmful to the environment, given the distortion in land use and the expanded conversion of forested land into cornfields.  That's bad.

The world price of corn has gone up, and people all over the world are finding ways to grow more corn.  That is partly bad, and partly good.

But, we are NOT using the corn for food!  And that is really hurting poor people who depended on corn as a high calorie source, and protein source.  That, dear ones, is the worst, of the worst, of the worst, of the dumbest darned thing I can think of.  We waste petroleum to pay politically connected corporations to build useless ethanol stills so poor people can starve.  Really?  

Better late than never

5 years after I (with the help and encouragement of Mrs. A) built our headboard and end tables, I finally finished our bedroom set by doing the bench for the end of the bed just last week. You can clic the pics for more glorious images

Here's a close-up of the bench. All construction is just mortise & tenon with glue and a few wooden dowels for pins. No nails, screws, chewing gum.....

End table detail. The wood is mango from Hawaii and bocote from Mexico. The mango has a lot of curl in it:

Putting the headboard pieces all together simultaneously was a real challenge:

The legs for the bench were tricky to do, the stretcher is used as a through-tenon. I have to thank my friend and colleague Lex Holmes for his help and advice on this project.