Straight Talk from One Armed Economists!

(1) Esther Duflo on Immigration

(2) Don Boudreaux on the Dollar

(3) Clive Crook on American Trade Politics

Plus the best sentence I've read this week:

"I am suspicious of long chains of reasoning, or for that matter medium-long chains of reasoning, which imply that an apparently OK state of affairs must end in ruin."

Well said Tyler!!

My Dinner With Karl

Tonight, Karl Christian Rove (yes, that is his middle name!) will speak at Duke, in Page Auditorium. It's sold out, so no way to get seats at this point.

Then, a dinner with a few Duke folks, a few spouses, and Karl. Donna and I will be there.

It appears there may be arrests. (At the talk, not the dinner.) Should be interesting.

Some background.

Karl Rove

Protest planning, and some excellent Mungowitz bashing! Some of these folks have been sipping that Haterade for too long....

Duke Chronicle article today

Chavez: Winning by Losing?

As all the wire services are reporting this morning, Hugo's constitutional reforms were voted down 51%-49% in a low turn out referendum. Mr. Chavez, refusing to take a page from the Manuel Bartlett PRI playbook, is accepting the defeat quite humbly, even going so far as to say that he wouldn't have wanted to have just scraped by with a narrow victory for such far reaching changes.

I'd say he's playing it pretty well:

Chavez told reporters at the presidential palace that the outcome of Sunday's balloting had taught him that "Venezuelan democracy is maturing." His respect for the verdict, he asserted, proves he is a true democratic leader.

"From this moment on, let's be calm," he proposed, asking for no more street violence like the clashes that marred pre-vote protests. "There is no dictatorship here."

Look at it this way, he's been President since 1999; now 2012 will mark the end of his "reign". In other words after 8 years in power, he loses a big election but is still looking at another 4+ years (minimum, another reform vote could be taken between now and then). Also, he's not exactly hurting for power now under the current rules. It is not clear to me how the implementation of his vision so far has been crippled by the old constitution (after all, he largely wrote that one as well). And the big plus is, now he has some serious democratic street cred. How can you call him a dictator now? How can you rant about his authoritarianism?

Geez, maybe he WANTED to lose??

Ron Paul Speech.

You have probably seen this.

But it is quite a speech.

Somalia: Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up To Me...

Better off stateless: Somalia before and after government collapse

Peter Leeson
Journal of Comparative Economics, December 2007, Pages 689-710

Abstract:
Could anarchy be good for Somalia's development? If state predation goes
unchecked government may not only fail to add to social welfare, but can
actually reduce welfare below its level under statelessness. Such was the
case with Somalia's government, which did more harm to its citizens than
good. The government's collapse and subsequent emergence of statelessness
opened the opportunity for Somali progress. This paper investigates the
impact of anarchy on Somali development. The data suggest that while the
state of this development remains low, on nearly all of 18 key indicators
that allow pre- and post-stateless welfare comparisons, Somalis are better
off under anarchy than they were under government. Renewed vibrancy in
critical sectors of Somalia's economy and public goods in the absence of a
predatory state are responsible for this improvement.

KPC has talked about this several times. Certainly there EXISTS a structure of government, in my mind at least, that would be better than the current situation. But it is quite possible, as Pete shows, that the ACTUAL government on the ground was in fact worse.

And that's a big problem. Many of my statist friends object to Libertarian claims. Their objections always come down to this: "If the government would do what *I* want, the world would be better, in my opinion, than things are now."

Well, I'm not sure that's true. But even if it is, that doesn't mean that the actual government won't look like...like...well, like the government we have right now. We aren't Somalia, by any means. But we aren't the America outlined in the Constitution.

(Nod to KL)

Vote me like your back ain't got no bones!

A straw poll.

Can ya HELP a brother?

Vote here....

Iceland is redhot!

Besides ranking #1 on the latest Human Development Index (yawn), Iceland is also home to Seabear, a very cool, low key groop. They sound a tiny bit like EARLY Iron & Wine (a good thing) and make terrific quirky videos like this:

This is actually an even better video, but the song is not as strong. Check it out.

Banker Rhymes with Wanker

Two videos that are a bit amusing, regarding loans and bailouts.

First, one.


And another.


Mr. Bernanke: Don't lower rates. Wankrupt the stupid bankers.

Worst First Dance Ever?

"So, I went to a wedding...and a dance broke out!"

I think this was Fundman's wedding, right?

Okay, maybe not. But...what were these people doing?
They had clearly practiced. And they were seriously shaking.
The bride's dress top can barely contain her...her...her enthusiasm.

(Nod to Anonyman, who asks, "Why did they do this in public? Why did they record this,? Why did they pay thousands of dollars for an audience to be there for it?")

Could Chavez actually lose??

So far, Hugo has won every election he's put in front of himself, so on the surface it would seem like he'd easily win tomorrow's referendum on his reforms (which boil down to making him a virtual dictator for life). However, there is some late info suggesting that he may have actually, finally overreached.

The inimitable Boz presents opinion poll numbers showing that a majority disapprove, but among likely voters, it's extremely close. Even the WaPo has noticed as well.

Few associates had been as loyal to President Hugo Chávez as the governor of the coastal state of Sucre, Ramón Martínez. And few are now more determined to defeat Chávez as he campaigns for constitutional changes that, if approved by voters on Sunday, could extend his presidency for life.

Chávez, 53 and in his ninth tumultuous year in office, was until recently predicted to win a referendum that would permit him to run for 8office indefinitely, appoint governors to federal districts he would create, and control the purse strings of one of the world's major oil-producing countries.

But Martínez and a handful of others who once were prominent pillars in the Chávez machine, have defected, saying approval of 69 constitutional changes would effectively turn Venezuela into a dictatorship run at the whim of one man. They have been derided by Chávez as traitors, but their unimpeachable leftist credentials have given momentum to a movement that pollsters say may deliver Chávez his first electoral defeat.

"The proposal would signify a coup d'etat," said Martínez, 58, whose dapper appearance belies his history as a guerrilla and Communist Party member. "Here the power is going to be concentrated in one person. That's very grave."

Pollsters in Caracas say Venezuelans increasingly agree -- even those who continue to support the president but say the proposed overhaul of an eight-year-old constitution goes too far.

Datanalisis , a respected Caracas polling firm that earlier this month was predicting a Chávez win, said that 48 percent of respondents in an opinion survey last week said they would vote "no" to the constitutional amendments, compared with 39 percent who expressed support, polling director Luis Vicente León said.

"In those three weeks, what's happened is, the people have been sensitized," León said. "What happened is, he presented a reform the people don't like."

Datanalisis accurately predicted Chávez victories in past elections, including last year's presidential election, in which he won a second six-year term by an overwhelming margin. León said the president's vigorous campaigning in these last few days is closing the gap. "It all depends on the capacity to mobilize," he said, "and we know who has that capacity."

The government has embarked on an all-out crusade, including a barrage of television ads and political rallies, with Chávez giving three or more speeches each day. When the day is done, Chávez appears on Mario Silva's "The Razor Blade," a talk show on government television, where he expounds well into the night. His face stares down from billboards and placards with the word "Sí," adorning balconies and windows.

I guess I am cynical enough to feel that this is a 1988 PRI in Mexico situation: If it looks like your candidate is losing, unplug the computers counting the votes and declare victory in the morning. That is to say, whatever the actual vote, I think it's likely Chavez will declare victory and move on.