I came, I saw, I bailed out
I am deviating from the Angus-Mungowitz investment optimism, at least in the short run.
On August 3, Angus did a dangerous thing, making a prediction...about the future. I went along, and in fact had been buying stocks for a bit.
But I'm out, as soon as the trades can be executed. Almost totally out.
1. Since August 3, stocks have risen a bit, total. Not a lot, from about 10680 to 10950, with a drop and recovery in between, but if you had bought on the advice o'Angus on August 3 you would already have made 2.5% in 2 months. Don't be greedy.
2. It's October. Sure, I know that this is like believing in goat entrails or tea leaves, but some bad stuff has happened in October. You may enjoy this, especially the "ripe pumpkin theory."
3. There's an election. I know 'cause it's in all the papers. And no one knows what is going to happen. Not knowing means volatility and lots of it.
I parked almost everything in money market and real estate. (TIAA-CREF's real estate account is up 8% this year, btw). Bonds may be bubbling, 'cause any change in inflation expectations will hammer them. Bonds aren't usually this risky, though they are always riskier than many people seem to believe. And stocks scare me until after the election. That means zero out stocks, and zero out bonds, for a month.
So, depending on what happens on the first Tues after the first Mon in November, I may go back to stocks. But now I am officially on the sideline.