Friday, November 01, 2013

Oh, No! We Are Going to Run out of WINE!

Even by the standards of popular media, this is amazingly dumb.

The article.

If only there were some mechanism to signal wine producers to make MORE wine.  We could call it....I don't know.... price?

I am making a bold prediction:  THere will be no wine shortage.  "Peak wine is peak idiocy.


Nick said...

Well if prices were declining, I'm sure the headline would have read "More woes for Spain and Italy as a glut of wine and lower consumption leads to lower prices for this important export"

And if nothing at all were happening, it probably would have read "Vineyard owners brace for impact of global warming"

This all started from a research report from an investment bank, trying to push a particular investment strategy.

Everybody talks their book. Everybody.

Gerardo said...

The elasticity of demand appears to be in the -0.5 to -1 range, meaning that a 10-15% production shortfall will jack a $10 price of wine a dollar or two. And that's assuming no re-entry or 'liquidation' of inventory.

Everybody talks their book, but every single major news outlet doesn't have to pick it up and aver that it's true. The idea that there will be a shortage in any sense of the word "shortage" is sheer idiocy, really.

BR said...

To prevent the homeless from going thirsty, we need a government program which pays wineries to overproduce and discard "excess".

marque2 said...

What I find most people mean when they say there is a shortage of something, is that there is a shortage at some price they would prefer the item to be EG I would like my wine to be $8 a bottle but it is now $10 -there is a shortage. It irritates me actually when I see newspaper articles saying there is a shortage of this or that. It is impossible unless there are price controls.