Dolla Dolla Bill

Dollar stores got beef!

Dollar Tree had an agreement to buy Family Dollar, but nowDollar General is offering $9 billion cash for Dollar Tree.

So I guess we know how many items Dollar Tree has in its inventory, no?

No word yet about what the new conglomerate plans to do about 50 Cent.

Bangs, Bucks, & Higher Ed

Look. If you can go to Harvard, do. OK? Let's get that out of the way right up front.

If you can't, here's a list of 12 places that are good value for money.

I have a lot of connections to schools on this list. I almost went to the University of Cincinnati. I had students who taught at Ohio University. I taught at George Mason. I currently work at the University of Oklahoma. I received job offers from West Virginia University and the University of Texas. I guess I am just a big bang for the buck kind of guy.

Oh and by the way, the average wage premium for a college degree over no college at all was right at $21,000 PER YEAR in 2011.

T. Oatley on "Ditch the Job Talk"

One of the thing that frustrates me is the centrality of the "job talk" for professional hiring in academics.

It's an artificial situation, and has almost nothing to do with whether the person will be a success.  Not surprisingly, "good" job talks turn out to have almost no predictive value in judging tenure chances, and "bad" talks don't tell you much, either. 

(Full disclosure:  I was notoriously a "bad" job talk giver.  Neanderbill had to save me at UNC, after I totally stunk up the joint.  And my talk at U Minn and U Md were epically, apocalyptically bad, still spoken of in awe a decade after the sorry debacles were over.  People--I in particular--were still waking up screaming at the horrors they had suffered through. So perhaps this is just sour grapes, I'll admit that).

And for senior people...even dumber.  Why in the world would you look at the job talk for a senior person? If you have read their work, and think it's not good, or not good enough, that's fair.  But a job talk?  Seriously?

Anyway, Dr. T. Oatley has some thoughts. And as always, the thoughts of Dr. T. Oatley are worth reading.

Ecce Chavez

Today is election day in Venezuela. The opposition seems united, its candidate, Henrique Capriles, has run an energetic campaign and made a major comeback in the polls. Chavez has survived his health issues (so far), and the vote is expected to be very close.

While it is certainly fair to denounce the dramatic fall in economic freedom, personal freedom, and impersonal rule of law in Venezuela under Chavez, it is also important to remember that pre-Chavez Venezuela was not exactly a democratic paradise.

There is, after all a reason that Chavez was elected and re-elected and re-elected. People think Venezuela is a socialist dictatorship masquerading as a democracy (I don't think this is true), but pre-Chavez Venezuela was an oligarchy masquerading as a democracy.

While it may take 20 years to undo the damage Chavez has done to the economy and the rule of law, in the long run (40 or 50 years), I believe that Chavismo will prove to have been a net plus for Venezuela.

He broke the oligarchy. He gave voice and hope to millions of effectively disenfranchised people. I don't Venezuela can ever go back to the old ways again.

If I can get all Marxist up in here for a minute, to me something like Chavismo was almost an historical necessity for Venezuela given the abuses of the old regime.

For the big finish, I am going out on a limb and predicting a Capriles victory.

You ain't seen nothing yet

We are headed for a world where most production can be done efficiently without very many people. Either smart machines will do it by themselves, or communications technology will massively raise the scale at which that the best people can practice their trade.

In other words, we are headed for a new gilded age where owners of capital and labor market superstars will be producing a massive chunk of the economic pie. The exact percentage? Shall we say 90?

Our politicians are, as usual, fighting the last war. It's nuts to worry about getting manufacturing jobs back, because as a first approximation, there won't be any in 10-15 years.

I can think of two possible outcomes for the rest of us.

 One is that we are all on the dole, happily chewing qat or plugging into the Matrix of amazing alternate reality experiences available to us.

The other is that we form an army of personal service providers to the ultra rich. I specialize in fingernail care, you focus on toenails. Uncle Chester vacuums out bellybuttons, and so on.

Unless we get fully functional personal assistant robots who can pass the Turing test.

Then it's the Matrix for all of us non-elites.

People, how do you want to spend your time in a world where meaningful work is not really an option for most of us?

Markets in everything: South African price discrimination edition

And if you're interested in what a Kulula airlines plane looks like:

 (clic the pics for more informative images). Hat tip to Jeff Ely.

Speaking of "cute boots"

Picked up these bad boys in Santa Fe for Mrs. Angus' christmas present. Not on Black Friday though.

(clic the pic for an even more glorious image)

NB: I followed the full set of Mark Perry boot rules; no half boots, no zipper boots.

Black Friday

LeBron on Black Friday. He doesn't say it, so I will: Robert Frank is a clown.

The LMM just came home with three pairs of "cute boots." I like it very much when the LMM feels attractive (which she always is, objectively), and happy (which she is sometimes not). I love Black Friday.

Educated Leaders, More Growth?

Do Educated Leaders Matter?

Timothy Besley, Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol
Economic Journal, August 2011, Pages F205–227

Abstract: This article uses data on more than 1,000 political leaders between 1875 and
2004 to investigate whether having a more educated leader affects the rate of economic growth. We use an expanded set of random leadership transitions because of natural death or terminal illness to show, following an earlier paper by Jones and Olken (2005), that leaders matter for growth. We then provide evidence supporting the view that heterogeneity among leaders’ educational attainment is important with growth being higher by having leaders who are more highly educated.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

The 244,000

All in all a decent jobs report. 244,000 net new jobs in total, 268,000 net new private sector jobs. 29,000 new jobs in manufacturing and the median duration of a spell of unemployment fell below 21 weeks for the first time in over a year. However the overall unemployment rate did rise back up to 9%.

High Heels Hurt

High heels more dangerous than sports! They mean more dangerous for women, of course. Shoes are a trap.

Walking in heels: A lesson. Think of your "power center." Tiny woman talks to giant blonde Amazon woman. This may be the most fatuous thing I have ever seen.


But heels are bad for men, too. Some men get hurt chasing after a another man carrying or kicking a ball. But even more men get hurt chasing after women who are wearing high heels.

'Cause they might actually catch up to the woman. And that's how the men get hurt.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Militar Suertudo

(Very lucky soldier)


I think it's cool that he didn't turn around and bayonet the idiot behind him. Impressive discipline.

(Nod to the LMM)

(Lagniappe: This woman was not as lucky...)

They should have stuck with import substitution

From Argentina (one of my very favorite countries) comes a great story on how tax collectors are innovating to find unreported income.

Briefly, they are counting the number of imported breast implants to get an idea of the income of plastic surgeons. They claim that given the number of these imports, there is at least $10 million of unpaid taxes floating around the industry.

People, these poor surgeons are just the latest victims of globalization!

Let's start the new year out right

Thanks to Yahoo for collecting an absolutely amazing compendium of diet and health tips to help us roar into 2011.

Here's a sample:

"A tablespoon of semen has your equivalent of steak, eggs, lemons and oranges."

PS. I really dislike how the media always use this "he said, she said" approach to health news.

More Guns, Less Crime?

Chateau writes in an email about this incident, about which I had not heard.

Apparently Austin SWAT did a "body search" of Chateau himself. Lucky guy; in Vegas you have to pay extra for that sort of thing.

And then there's this, on the SAME DAY: John Lott was to be in the HOUSE.

Truthiness now!

Robin Hanson lists some "Signs that your opinions function more to signal loyalty and ability than to estimate truth", so I thought I'd check myself out:

You find it hard to be enthusiastic for something until you know that others oppose it.

Guilty. Way way way guilty.

You have little interest in getting clear on what exactly is the position being argued.

No. In fact the opposite is true

Realizing that a topic is important and neglected doesn’t make you much interested.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You have little interest in digging to bigger topics behind commonly argued topics.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You are less interested in a topic when you don’t foresee being able to talk about it.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You are uncomfortable taking a position near the middle of the opinion distribution.

Guilty. Extremely guilty.

You are uncomfortable taking a position of high uncertainty about who is right.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You care far more about current nearby events than similar distant or past/future events.

I don't even understand this fully, but I don't think it's true of me

You find it easy to conclude that those who disagree with you are insincere or stupid.

Guilty

You are reluctant to change your publicly stated positions in response to new info.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You are reluctant to agree a rival’s claim, even if you had no prior opinion on the topic.

Guilty

You are reluctant to take a position that raises the status of rivals.

Guilty

You care more about consistency between your beliefs than about belief accuracy.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You go easy on sloppy arguments by folks on “your side.”

No. In fact the opposite is true

You have little interest in practical concrete implications of commonly argued topics.

No. In fact the opposite is true

Your opinion doesn’t much change after talking with smart folks who know more.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You are especially eager to drop names when explaining positions and arguments.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You find it hard to list weak points and counter-arguments on your positions.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You feel passionately about a topic, but haven’t sought out much evidence.

No. In fact the opposite is true

You are reluctant to not have an opinion on commonly discussed topics.

No. In fact the opposite is true


So that makes me what, 75% truth seeker and 25% signaler? That's pretty good for me, I would have said in advance of seeing the questions that I'd come out 50/50.

Somehow though, I would bet that Robin H. thinks this entire post is some kind of anti-truth signal!

Hat tip to LeBron

hot links

1. Does Comic Sans have to choke a font?

2 Sometimes a bagel is just a bagel.

3. Precise Modern Lovers Order.

The culture that is Japan

Great article in Sunday's NY Times about how a lot of Japan's alleged centenarians are actually long dead. One 73 year old man claimed his father was out of town and that he was merely still collecting dad's pension "just in case" he came back!

Money quote:

“Living until 150 years old is impossible in the natural world,” said Akira Nemoto, director of the elderly services section of the Adachi ward office. “But it is not impossible in the world of Japanese public administration.”

Amen!

Ghost Busters!

Christopher Hitchens has a great post on Hugo Chavez's unseemly man crush on the cadaver of Simon Bolivar.

Money quote:

"Chavez, in other words, is very close to the climactic moment when he will announce that he is a poached egg and that he requires a very large piece of buttered toast so that he can lie down and take a soothing nap."

Mr. Putin! Tear down that wall

I'd Like to feed the children/Find a cure for disease

Rebuild the cities/and Plant a lot of trees

I'd like to help the sick/Build factories

Give money to students/hospitals and galleries

But, I'm afraid of the Russians/I can't sleep at night

So afraid of the Russians/Afraid we've got to fight

I'd like to go to space/Clean up rivers and lakes

Put everyone to work/ whatever it takes

But, I'm afraid of the Russians/I can't sleep at night

So afraid of the Russians/Afraid we've got to fight

They've got ships at sea/They've got missiles in the air

Tanks on the border of Europe/and spies everywhere/

--Made for TV