Robert Frank pummels a straw man

In todays NY Times "Economic View" Frank opines:

"At the heart of attempts to curb carbon dioxide emissions are two related proposals: taxation of those emissions and a system of tradable emission permits, also known as cap and trade. Both have been attacked as unacceptable restrictions on individual liberty. The attacks have come from both sides of the political aisle, but have been pressed with particular insistence by conservatives and libertarians."

Yet, throughout the entire article Frank goes on to name exactly zero libertarians who oppose a carbon tax and only one conservative, some guy named Henry Lamb.

Let me go him two better in my debunking here:

Greg Mankiw is a well known conservative (and NY Times columnist) and is famously in favor of a carbon tax. I am small (invisible?) potatoes compared to Mankiw, but I am a quasi-libertarian and I am in favor of a carbon tax as long as it is overall revenue neutral (meaning that the increase in revenues from this tax are offset by decreased revenues from other taxes).

Even though, in principle, a cap and trade program can be designed to have the same anti-pollution effect as a given tax, I think Mankiw and myself both dislike the current cap and trade bill because of how the permits are not going to be auctioned off and generally how stinky something becomes once it emerges from our grand sausage factory.

It's nice to see the shout-out to R. H. Coase in the article, but Frank is attacking a straw man throughout.

All taxes and regulations are obviously infringements on personal liberty in some sense, and there may well be libertarians who think our current levels of taxation represent "unacceptable restrictions", but I am not aware of libertarians who specifically object to a carbon tax.

ps. the article also contains the following sentence:

Climate scientists agree that the cheapest way to combat global warming is to curb carbon dioxide emissions.

Is that true? Is curbing CO2 is the "cheapest" way to combat global warming?

How not to do statistics

Let me start by saying that i like The Painted Area blog. However, they have cooked up a stinky statistical stew that I suggest you do not eat:

We've found examining a team's rebounding margin is a quick, simple way of projecting playoff success....it was no surprise that strong rebounding is a key component to winning titles. But we found it interesting that out of the 40 teams to make the Finals in that 20-year span between '87 to '06, only four teams had a negative rebound margin for the regular season. We also found that the +1 rpg margin threshold seems to be a strong indicator if a team can win the title....Currently (stats as of 1/6/10), the Lakers (+2), Magic (+2.6), Cavs (+3.8) and Spurs (+4.1) are in good shape in the rebound margin department.

Ok, people got that? Rebound margin = playoff success and look, the best teams this year seemingly have a good margin.

Or do they?

Well folks, the league leaders in rebounding margin (as of 1/8/10) are the Memphis Grizzlies at 5.3. Interestingly the blog does not mention them as playoff contenders, but does mention the number 2 and 3 teams in the league which are the Spurs and the the Cavs. They also do not tell you that Portland and Chicago also have rebound margins higher than the LA Lakers.

Regarding the magic +1 margin as the cut off for greatness, there are 10 teams in the Association with such a mark and 6 of them are Memphis, Portland, Chicago, Detroit, Oklahoma City, and Utah. Will any of these teams win a playoff series this year? 

The other four are indeed Spurs, Cavs, Magic, and Lakers, but this test clearly has way too many false positives.

Man! Lance Armstrong has really let himself go

Life imitates art

As previously noted, Jayson Williams appears to be a devotee of "Arrested Development", while this rascally miscreant clearly is a big "Seinfeld" fan:

UNIONTOWN, Pa. – Police say a Pennsylvania man in a hospital gown stole $50 from his ex-girlfriend at Wal-Mart, then tried to flee on a store-owned motorized shopping scooter.

Thirty-two-year-old Craig David Jr., of Smithfield, was charged Wednesday with robbery and disorderly conduct.

State police Cpl. Chuck Frey says David had just been released from a hospital for injuries in a domestic dispute Jan. 1. Frey says David had been hit with a frying pan and table leg.

David was still in a hospital gown Tuesday night when he met an ex-girlfriend who agreed to pay for his prescription medication. Instead, police say he grabbed $50 from her and scooted away.

David remained jailed Thursday. He does not have an attorney.

No word yet on whether the Playnow corporation will still honor the rest of David's contract.

  

Stupidity Bowl

Wow, I am watching the BCS championship game and it's like watching a rousing game of Russian roulette!

While Alabama made two idiotic plays that led to two Texas field goals (a pathetic fake punt on the first series of the game and then the failure to field the ensuing kick-off which resulted in the worlds longest onside kick), Saban still looks like a freakin' genius compared to Mack Brown.

Brown decides to take his super-star, his indispensable man, QB Colt McCoy and have him run a sweep. 'Bama defender drills him, McCoy heads to the locker room for x-rays, and now Texas has no offense.

People, Mack Brown is a moron! 

You could go pick some dude out of any LA barbershop or Pilates studio to coach Texas and they wouldn't send McCoy plunging into the line in a million years.

I picked Texas to win this game but now, I don't think so.

Yikes!!

***** UPDATE******

Nice time-out there right before the half too, Mack. Just what you needed, to have your deer in the headlights backup shovel a pick 6. That poor kid was crying when he came off the field.

This week's sign of the apocalypse

From Billboard: Lil Wayne to be cartoon Jesus!

I hate to break it to the Mayans, but if this actually happens we 

probably won't even make it to 2012!

Stupid Okie tricks

I wonder how many KPC readers are familiar with this quaint Oklahoma New Year's tradition:

Oklahoma City police arrested a Midwest City man early New Year's Day after his ex-girlfriend said he kicked in her door, fought with her current boyfriend and used his rear end to smash her television set.

Gives new meaning to the term "buns of steel", eh?


Hat tip to Jack Hobson and his facebook friends.

   

Not quite how I remember it

I am a fanatic for the late lamented Unicorns. "Who will cut our hair when we're gone" is a classic of the 'aughts. Some of them are now in a good but not great group called Islands, and Islands have put out an awesome video with Micheal Cera.

Enjoy:

Smells Like Clean Spirit

The Smell of Virtue: Clean Scents Promote Reciprocity and Charity

Katie Liljenquist, Chen-Bo Zhong & Adam Galinsky, Psychological Science, forthcoming

"Two experiments demonstrated that clean scents not only motivate clean behavior, but also promote virtuous behavior by increasing the tendency to reciprocate trust and to offer charitable help...The link from cleanliness to virtuous behavior appears to be a nonconscious one: in neither experiment did participants recognize an influence of scent on their behavior, and in Experiment 2, perceived cleanliness did not differ by condition nor correlate with the effects. These findings carry important implications for environmental regulation of behavior...By demonstrating that the association between morality and cleanliness is bidirectional, the current research identifies an unobtrusive way – a clean scent – to curb exploitation and promote altruism...The current findings suggest there is some truth to the claim that cleanliness is next to godliness; clean scents summon virtue, helping reciprocity prevail over greed, and charity over apathy."

(Nod to Kevin L)

Just do it?

An interesting new NBER working paper by Aizenman and Marion (ungated version here), tries to figure out how much we will use inflation to reduce the debt to gdp ratio, which is predicted to hit 70, 80 and 100 percent in 2019 by the OMB, CBO and IMF respectively.

They argue that shorter debt maturities weigh against using inflation while increased debt holding by foreigners increases the attractiveness of using inflation and come up with a 5% inflation semi-prediction:

"When economic growth is stalled, the U.S. debt overhang may trigger an increase in inflation of about 5 percent for several years."

Go Ben, get busy.....????