Look at Paul, way out on a skinny branch:
"The next four years are likely to be much better than the last four years — unless misguided policies create another mess."
LOL. Ya think?
The last 4 years have been absolutely horrible. Perhaps the worst in the post-war era, certainly since the early 80s. The economy can't stink forever, household de-leveraging won't last forever, so this is kind of a no-brainer.
And yet note the lack of any quantitative dimension. "Much better", not "average 3.5% growth", or "have unemployment hit 5.5%".
And also note the convenient escape clause "unless....".
Perfect PK move. Setting himself up for a big "I told you so", with a very flexible goalpost and a get out of jail free card if things really don't work out.