Hey Golf: Get out of the stone age!

I like the commercials for Top-Flite Balls where the guy checks to see if the golfer is worthy of the product: "Winter rules?" "Cheating". "Gimmies?" "Make the putt". "Mulligans?" a withering stare.

However, there are a slew of ridiculous rules that are selectively enforced that make no sense, give the "perpetrator" no competitive advantage and need to go. Two great examples occurred this past week.

The first is the insane DQ-ing of Michelle Wie for "failing to sign her scorecard". She actually did sign it, but she left the scorer's trailer without signing, was called back by volunteers and signed. After playing her next round, she was informed by the LPGA that she was out of the tourney. Now I know the LPGA hates Wie, but this is ridiculous. What is the injury to other competitors that happened here? And even if such an injury could be conjured up, why DQ? Why not 2 strokes? Or an hour in the stocks? Or the comfy chair?

The second example is from the British Open. In 35 mph winds on slick greens, golf balls will move without being hit. Yet if you ground your putter behind the ball and it moves before you hit it, you incur a penalty. Even worse, according to the rules official. If you address the ball and then back away without re-marking the ball and the ball moves, it's a penalty. So we treated to the sight of golfers altering their putting styles, trying not to ground their putters behind the ball, twitching and jitterbugging around worried about breaking this rule. Why?

It's beyond time to modernize and streamline the rules of golf.

A surprising beneficiary of the weak US dollar

NBA players are starting to go (or go back) to European pro leagues. Well it's not too surprising really as it's just another example of how the weaker dollar spurs US exports. Some of the players in question are Europeans. Carlos Delfino and Juan Carlos Navarro have left to go back to a Euro team and the Spurs' first round draft pick (the improbably and wondrously named) Tiago Splitter decided to stay in Europe and refused to sign with the Spurs. But the most significant development is that Josh Childress is allegedly on the point of signing a pretty nice contract with a Greek team. Childress is a restricted free agent with the Hawks, but can sign with a foreign team without restrictions. This would be a juicy coup for European professional ball.

Recommended Reading

1. J. Chait takes Naomi Klein apart. A truly excellent piece.

2. I've seen the needle and the damage done.

3. Pleasurable writing.

Can Ya Digg It?

With apologies to Isaac Hayes.

Can ya digg it? I'd sure appreciate it...

Court to Ohio: Be Serious

Hey, hey, ho, ho!

We're on the ballot in....Oh HI oH!

Stossel on Staddon

I have a good friend here at Duke: John Staddon.


Staddon wrote this extremely cool article for the Atlantic.

And then I guy I admire, John Stossel, picked it up
and wrote this.

Good ON ya!

Batman: Yes

Gosh, that's a good movie.

My son and I, walking out of the theater.

Me: "I don't see how that could have been much better."

Him: "Nope."

Since he's 16, this passes for a conversation. And having him AGREE with
me is a major concession.

So, let me note, without spoilers, the following:

1. The photography and lighting. The night scenes, outside
high up in Hong Kong and New York. Wow.

2. Heath Ledger. Unbelievable. I mean, the role was well-written,
but he inhabited it. Actually moved in and lived there, in the Joker.

3. Separately, the character of the Joker, in the movie. Extremely
disturbing, and integrated into the plot, and the feeling, of the movie.

4. The conception of human nature. "Do you have any idea how alone you are?"

5. The riffs, intentional or not, on Machiavelli's theme that the Prince
must sacrifice his soul to damnation if he is to save the city. Utterly sacrifice
his soul, and break his principles, if the city is to survive. There is
no hypocrisy, no morality. There is only survive, or not survive.

I don't see how it could have been much better. Nope.

Would Pigou join Mankiw's Pigou Club?

A great quote from good old AC himself via Gabriel:

It is not sufficient to contrast the imperfect adjustments of unfettered enterprise with the best adjustment that economists in their studies can imagine. For we cannot expect that any State authority will attain, or will ever wholeheartedly seek, that ideal. Such authorities are liable alike to ignorance, to sectional pressure and to personal corruption by private interest. — Pigou A., Wealth and Welfare 1920, p. 296

This is basically what I told my professors when I was in grad school over and over. Its not fair to compare actual market outcomes with idealized public outcomes. It has to be actual vs. actual. I was considered a right wing nut. Then when I took my first job as an assistant professor at GMU, I found myself having to say things like not all market outcomes are unimprovable by real world governments. I was considered a left wing nut!

On balance, I guess though the right wing nut label is more accurate. It never ceases to amaze me how people look to government for solutions to problems at least partly caused by government. For example, is it really a good idea to expand the Fed's powers given their recent performance? Yet that is pretty much what is happening. Similarly, people are looking to governments to deal with rising food prices which are significantly caused by the self same governments' insane agricultural and alternative fuel polices.

The Candidate of Change

That's going to leave a mark

In a stunning development, Argentina's Senate rejected the new export taxes that the Executive branch had imposed on certain agricultural exports back in March. It is stunning because the president's party, the Peronists, also have (had?) a functional majority in the Senate. The vote was tied and the vice president of the country (who used to be a member of the main opposition party, the radicals, but got kicked out when he ran with Kirchner) cast the tiebreaking vote against the tax.

President Kirchner only deigned to put the policy to a vote in the legislature after having first imposed it (and witnessed the sometimes massive demonstrations against it over the last 4 months) in order to try and legitimize the policy, but that has failed (Argentina has been essentially ruled by the executive branch under an emergency decree since the 2001 crisis there, which explains why the tax did not originally come through the legislature).

The voting ended at 4:30 in the morning and all 72 Senators voted. The vice president, Julio Cobos, announced later this morning that he does not plan to resign, and the farmers are jubilant.

Some Pix

No reasons, just pix....



The guy must be having one of his "spells."



The nearest exit may be your behind....

5% and rising

From the BLS news release:

Consumer prices advanced at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate
(SAAR) of 7.9 percent in the second quarter after increasing at a 3.1
percent rate in the first three months of 2008.  This brings the year-to-
date annual rate to 5.5 percent and compares with an increase of 4.1
percent in all of 2007.

Wow! So soon after we were told that central bankers had "figured it out", that previous inflations were due to insufficient knowledge or the use of a bad macro-model and that the era of inflation was over, we are heading right back into the soup. Yes I know that unemployment and recession are painful experiences that should be avoided if possible. But I also know that the one thing the Fed actually can control is inflation. I am not so sure they can provide a monetary solution to an adverse real event (or sequence of events).

Monetary policy: yer doin' it wrong!

Karma Kronicles

1. "That's how we roll in Philly". Jose Canseco got the livin' crap knocked out of him in a 97 second "fight" with ex-boxer and NFLer Vai Sikehema.

2. On their way to their ritualized, barbaric senseless slaughter, the bulls of Pamplona at least manage to wound 45 humans.

3. I can finally watch college basketball again (LOL not really, there are still only about 4 or 5 good players in division I)! Billy Packer is OUT! In the words of another overrated basketball announcer, YESSSSSSSS!!!

4. Brett meet pine, pine, Brett. You two will be spending lots of time together! The Packers finally pull the plug on the Hamlet of the NFL with a brutal 1-2 punch consisting of "Aaron Rogers is our starter" and "We will not give you your release".

From Aggieland

From my pal Steve Pejovich:

The following is the winning entry from an annual contest at Texas A&M University calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term.

This year's term was Political Correctness.

The winner wrote:

"Political Correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end."

English to English translation needed

S. Africa's Amla overcomes England bully-boy tactics

This is a good start. The colonial power picking on the ex-colony. Maybe verbal abuse or a knee to the groin? I can't wait for the details.


LONDON (AFP) - Hashim Amla was a quietly proud man after his unbeaten century helped see South Africa to the safety of a first Test draw against England here at Lord's and in the process erased some painful memories.

He must be an old man too if he's been unbeaten for a century!!

During the 2004/05 series in South Africa, Amla averaged just nine in two Tests against England before being dropped after struggling against the short ball. But the men who got him out back then - Stephen Harmison, Simon Jones and Matthew Hoggard - weren't in the England side at Lord's where a placid pitch made life tough for fast bowlers.

Come again please? Seriously, what could this possibly mean? "Weren't in the England side"?

That didn't stop England peppering Amla on Monday with a succession of short-pitched deliveries and packing the legside, close-in field.

So they were hitting him with the ball? If not, just exactly how does "throwing the short ball" and "packing the legside" equate to "bully boy tactics"?

"I am satisfied to score a hundred at Lord's," said Amla, who was 104 not out when the match ended prematurely thanks to what South Africa captain Graeme Smith said was a "gentleman's agreement" even though the Proteas were only 47 ahead with a minimum of 19 overs left in the day.

Huh??

"To score a hundred anywhere is a lovely feeling," Amla added.

Sure, just ask Wilt Chamberlain! That's the only part of the story I understand.

And when I die, I'll be Sooner dead

Holy Crap. Stop the presses! Norman OK is #6 on Money Magazines top 100 places to live? Wow. Who knew?

Actually Norman is OK (sorry). All we need here is a good grocery store (there's a Whole Foods in Tulsa now so who knows, we may get one), a theatre that shows art films (Angelika-Norman anyone?), and a giant bubble to keep the wind and boiling hot weather out (like in the Simpsons Movie!).

Banality, thy name is WALL-E

Wow, what a crappy movie. I just kept looking at the clock and wondering if the running time of the film included the cartoon short (which was way better than the movie) and when I could get out of there. It wasn't quite "Antonement" unwatchable, but it was boring, preachy and PC.

America is Walmart. Walmart is bad. Fat people suck. ok ok I get it. Can I see the rabbit electrocute the magician because he won't feed him again?

Idiocracy is about the same stuff only 1,000 times better. Chunks of WALL-E actually seemed to have been lifted from Mike Judge.

Tyler Cowen cost me 2 hours out of my life and I WANT THE TIME BACK, BRO!!!

Radio Ad....Please Listen, and Comment!

A blog post about the radio ad I'll be running this week.

Comments welcome!

Mike Munger

Greg Mankiw's Platform: I give it a gentleman's C

Professor Mankiw "gives an 8 plank platform designed to attract a majority of economists."

1. Support free trade. Sounds good, but it's just not that simple. Bilateral FTAs run to 1000s of pages and often just inefficiently divert trade rather than create trade. It's ridiculous to call the proposed pacts with Colombia and Korea free trade. If you really are in favor of free trade you should oppose these pacts.

2. Oppose farm subsidies. Agreed.

3. Leave oil companies and speculators alone. Agreed.

4. Tax the use of energy. Huh? The first sentence of plank #2 reads "Economists like free markets" so why increase taxes on energy (which, since we already have substantial energy taxes is what the plank should have said)? To make this argument, one needs, in my opinion, to (a) show the negative externality that is not already being addressed by current taxation and then (b) show that our government's marginal tax policy would reduce said externality more efficiently than simply assigning property rights and letting the free markets that some of us do actually like do their work.

5. Raise the retirement age. I have to give an incomplete here. Raise it for whom? workers already in their 60s? In their 50s? How old do you have to be before it's too unfair to change the rules in the middle of the game? In my view you can only consider doing this for workers under 30 and those who follow them.

6. Invite more skilled immigrants. Again, incomplete. Why be so stingy? Lets go with the inscription on the statue of liberty.

7. Liberalize drug policy. Agreed. Well said, and courageously said.

8. Raise funds for economic research. (to be fair there is a good change that GM is kidding here but) Wow, the NBER raises social welfare? Sorry sir, but I think abolish funds for economic research would be more to the point. The NBER is welfare for the well to do.

What, no onions??

context here.

Belarus to McCain: What did we do to deserve this??

Yes, Dr. No has become Dr. Phil and Johnny Mac has elegantly tossed him under the bus. All in one day. Golly, I love American politics!

To recap:

1. Phil Gramm is video taped saying that "we have sort of become a nation of whiners" and that the country is in a "mental recession" (Ironically, Gramm himself was whining when he made these remarks and quite obviously not running on all cylinders in the mental department either)!

2. BO gleefully points out that America already has a national psychiatrist named Dr. Phil and notes that we don't need another.

3. McCain, who has been going around the country taking great pains to feel everyone's pain, says Gramm does not speak for him and when asked about Gramm's likely position in a McCain Administration more or less says he'd like to send him to Belarus but he doesn't think the locals would stand for it!!!

Could we please have presidential elections every two years? That would be great.

Of course Gramm was totally right in that the gloom and doom rhetoric far outpasses any actual bad current economic outcomes, but totally wrong in the sense that when you want a bunch of whiners to vote for your candidate so that you can get a cushy government job the last thing you should do is call them a bunch of whiners!!

Left Handedness and Beisbol: A Wash U Study

"Ninety percent of the human population is right-handed, but in baseball 25 percent of the players, both pitchers, and hitters, are left-handed," said Peters, a devoted St. Louis Cardinal fan who attended "Stan the Man's" last ball game at Sportsman's Park in 1963. "There is a premium on lefthanders for a number of reasons. For starters, take seeing the ball.

"A right-handed batter facing a right-handed pitcher actually has to pick up the ball visually as it comes from behind his (the batter's) left shoulder. The left-handed batter facing the right-handed pitcher has the ball coming to him, so he has a much clearer view of pitches."

Then, Peters says, consider the batter's box. After a right-hander connects with a ball, his momentum spins him toward the third-base side and he must regroup to take even his first step toward first base. In contrast, the left-hander's momentum carries him directly toward first.

ATSRTWT

A question: Angus and I are BOTH left-handed. But I suck at baseball, and he is only slightly better. Is this another of those "neither necessary nor sufficient" things? I HATE those.

(Nod to Bayou Jack, who doesn't really suck at anything)

Press Release

RALEIGH (July 9) – Dr. Mike Munger, Libertarian candidate for governor released his position on off-shore drilling for oil and natural gas today.

"The proposals I see coming from both the Democrats and Republicans are half-measures and stop-gaps," Dr. Munger said. "And the sudden support for off-shore drilling by Mayor Pat McCrory and others, is a cheap gimmick. It will have no effect on the price of oil, and will do nothing to affect the prices that NC consumers pay for gas at the pump."

Dr. Munger has a PhD in economics and experience working in regulatory policy at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission. He holds a current joint appointment in Duke's Economics Department. He believes that only comprehensive energy reform will work to solve the nation's energy security problems, and help consumers in our state.

"It's an election year, which means that it is silly season for politicians. The supporters of new drilling are promising miracles, and the opponents are predicting disaster. They are both exaggerating for their own political purposes," Dr. Munger said.

Dr. Munger's proposed comprehensive solution would require broad cooperation at the federal and state level. The key points are:

1. End tariffs on ethanol imports.

2. Allow drilling and new exploration for high-yield sources of oil and natural gas on Federal lands and offshore in all U.S. waters.

3. End domestic ethanol subsidies, which waste both energy and money.

4. Allow the increasing price of gasoline and oil to do its job, by encouraging consumers to conserve, and rewarding oil companies for finding new reserves.

5. Allow the immediate development of new domestic refining capacity and cracking facilities, which has been held up for more than a decade by short-run political gamesmanship.

"The key is to recognize that the increased price of oil and gas will solve this problem for us, if we let it," according to Dr. Munger. "Oil companies will develop new reserves, and new refining capacity. Consumers will choose more fuel-efficient cars, and heating options. Alternative fuels and energy sources will become competitive, and will be developed rapidly in the marketplace."

As for the current proposals by both Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory, "They will have no effect, and in fact they are not even making any real effort" to solve the problem," said Dr. Munger.

-30-

Dr. Munger is available for interviews. Call him at his direct cell number (919) 369-6453 or email mungowitz@gmail.com.

Brand pulls a Boozer

Wow, say it ain't so Coach K!

Elton is now a 76er and Baron is S.O.L.

At least Boozer only burned his owner while Brand burned his boy (and one of my favorite players) Baron Davis.

I guess when it comes to dealing with Dookies you better get it in writing and get it notarized!

Like Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand signs with another team after saying he was willing to take a pay cut to make Clippers competitive. 82,000,000 clams and a sure spot in the playoffs was enough for him to leave his good friend Baron and a young, talented Clippers team. Money and Championships talk in this business son.

Sorry, Baron Davis: Elton Brand apparently is heading east. Sources told Marc Stein on Tuesday the longtime Clipper informed the 76ers he will accept a five-year deal worth an estimated $82 million.

Said one source close to the process: "Elton wants to go East."

Will the Sixers be the next Utah and the Clippers the next Caveliers? Sure feels like it as the Sixers become a solid contender in the East with a bright future. A squad of Brand, Dalembert, Miller, AI, and Young will definately make make the playoffs, and even get out of the first round and do some damage. And the Clippers are stuck with a superstar in Baron Davis and no real supporting cast in the competitive West, much the way Lebron is in Cleveland. Livingston, Gordon, and Thorton are young, Mobley at the end of his career, and in the West, they will need to win at least 50 games to make the playoffs.

For those who do not remember the Boozer controversy, here is a summary:

Boozer could have been Cleveland's in the '04-'05 season for $695,000, but the Cavaliers did not pick up their option after, the club said, Boozer had committed to re-signing for the team's full midlevel exception -- somewhere around six years and $40 million. That allowed Utah to pick him up for 6 year at $68 million

YouTube Ad

The first YouTube ad of the campaign.



Major, major props to Rusty Sheridan. His company.

Name that Team part deaux

Over at Ball Don't Lie, they have a list of names and a virtual voting booth set up. The blog suggestions stink (in my opinion), but the commenters have some good ideas like

The Panhandlers

The Twisters

The Drillers

I really like the Panhandlers. It has great mascot costume potential for sure.

Context is King

And here's a little for the announcement Mungowitz posted last night, Tom was a year or so ahead of us in grad school. He was the total teacher's pet both in the Econ and Finance departments. He was popular among his classmates because his lovely wife would invite us over to eat real food (which otherwise we could only get from Naugles). When our benefactor Murray Weidenbaum became Reagan's first CEA chair, he took Tom along with him to Washington (yes we are all way way way old).

My personal favorite memory of the Tom Gilligan era at Wash U? Has to be his subtle charm. Some examples:

"Grier, you work out every day and still look like crap. Why is that? How is it possible?"

and

"Grier, you know why you never keep a girlfriend for more than 3 months? Because that's how long it takes for someone to really get to know you!"

Gilligan: A Visionary Leader

Press Release From UT-Austin

Date: July 9

Thomas C. Gilligan Appointed Dean
Of McCombs School of Business

AUSTIN, Texas – Dr. Thomas C. Gilligan, the E. Morgan Stanley Chair in Business Administration and professor of finance and business economics at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business in Los Angeles, has been appointed dean of the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin.

The appointment of Gilligan, who from February 2006 to April 2007 was interim dean of the Marshall School of Business, is effective Sept. 1, said Dr. Steven Leslie, provost at The University of Texas at Austin. He said the selection of Gilligan followed a nationwide search by an 18-member committee headed by Dr. Michael Ganof, a professor in the McCombs School of Business.

Gilligan will replace Dr. George W. Gau, whose six-year appointment as dean of the business school ends in August.

Granof said there was remarkable unanimity among members of the committee, as well as other people who met Gilligan in the selection process, that he has the scholarly credentials, administrative experience and charisma they would like to see in the dean of their business school.

“There is no question that the McCombs School of Business has the potential to be one of the truly top business schools in the world and Thomas Gilligan has the ability and skills to take us in that direction,” Granof said.

“Tom Gilligan is a visionary leader,” said William Powers Jr., president of The University of Texas at Austin. “In cooperation with our outstanding faculty, he will take the McCombs School to a new level of distinction.”

Gilligan said his family is excited to join The University of Texas at Austin community.

“I am honored and invigorated by the prospect of leading the McCombs School of Business to even more accomplishments and greater prominence,” Gilligan said.

Leslie said, "Tom Gilligan has the personal and professional capabilities, the energy and commitment to excellence, and the leadership skills to be a superb dean. I look forward to working with him to build upon the excellence of the McCombs School of Business."

Gilligan, who received his bachelor of arts degree with honors from the University of Oklahoma in Norman, and doctor’s degree in economics from Washington University in St. Louis, has held positions at the University of Southern California as vice-dean for undergraduate and doctoral education and chair of the Department of Finance and Business Economics. He also has been a visiting professor at the J.L. Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill., and at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business in Stanford, Ca. Gilligan’s areas of interest are microeconomics, applied price theory, industrial organization, antitrust economics and public choice.

Prior to his first academic position as an assistant professor of economics at California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, in 1982-1983, Gilligan served four years as a Russian linguist in the United States Air Force.

Gilligan has been a co-editor of the Journal of Law, Economics and Organization (2001-2006), Business and Politics (1999-present), Journal of Economics and Management Strategy (1998-2005) and Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics (1996-present), and has been a referee over two dozen other journals. He has authored and co-authored articles in numerous journals and other publications.

(Nod to Chateau, who knows just how "visionary" Dr. Gilligan really is....)

Hancock: a metaphor for America?

not so super superhero Hancock causes massive collateral damage when he saves the day, is crude and unlikeable, and picks on French kids. So of course he's meant to represent the USA, or so says Kyle Smith in a very fun review of the movie (full disclosure: I have not seen it and don't plan to at this point). Here's an excerpt:

Not for nothing does Hancock share his name with one of the fiercest patriots in American history; the movie also takes pain to establish the eagle (a frequently seen image) as Hancock’s symbol, even at the beginning when it’s merely a patch on his ratty ski cap. “I’m the only one of my kind,” Hancock complains, by virtue of explaining his difficulties as the world’s only superpower. He has trouble getting along with others.

So I wonder does that make Jason Bateman a metaphor for Karl Rove?

If you think the Shrub is unpopular

(and of course, he is) you should check out the latest public ratings of our legislative branch:

The percentage of voters who give Congress good or excellent ratings has fallen to single digits for the first time in Rasmussen Reports tracking history. This month, just 9% say Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Most voters (52%) say Congress is doing a poor job, which ties the record high in that dubious category.

While I endorse the sentiment, I fear that the people are rating Congress so low because they are not "doing anything" to help them, whereas I rate Congress low because they are doing things!

And despite these heinous ratings, I predict that incumbents running for re-election will win at least 88% of their election races (Way way way back when I was a lad being mis-educated at Wash U., I read a cool article by Dick Fenno called "If Congress is the broken branch, how come we love our congressmen so much?" that addressed this phenomenon of low approval ratings and high re-election rates. Can't find it on the web though).

Go Bulls!!

Now that Wimbledon is over, the current international sporting spectacle is the running of the bulls in Pamplona Spain. It may not surprise KPC readers to learn that I root for the Bulls to create as much carnage and mayhem as bovinely possible. So far, they are off to a good start.

Yesterday was the first running and:

Thirteen people were taken to hospital, one of them seriously injured, on the first day of the annual bull running festival in the northern Spanish town of Pamplona on Monday, organizers said. A 37-year-old man suffered a collapsed lung, ruptured spleen and broken ribs, while two people were concussed and 10 others were treated mainly for cuts and bruises.

but what about today you ask? Well we had our first goring:

Since 1924 the bulls have managed to kill 14 humans during these events. Go Bulls!

Rogoff and the ECB vs. Everyone else?

Last week the ECB raised their policy interest rate 25 basis points to 4.25%. This of course is a stark contrast to the Fed's recent "move" of keeping its rate at 2.00%. The policy histories of these two institutions are interesting:



Is the ECB too bureaucratic and inertial as some have argued? Or is the Fed too much of a fine tuner / over-reacter? Or maybe both? Certainly it's a big advantage for the ECB that it's a multinational organization because it doesn't have to worry about national elections like the Fed does.

One prominent economist has recently sided with the ECB's policy choices:

The spectacular and historic global economic boom of the past six years is
about to hit a wall. Unfortunately, no one, certainly not in Asia or the US, seems willing to bite the bullet and help engineer the necessary co-ordinated retreat to sustained sub-trend growth, which is necessary so that new commodity supplies and alternatives can catch up.

Instead, governments are clawing to stretch out unsustainable booms, further pushing up commodity prices, and raising the risk of a once-in-a-lifetime economic and financial mess. All this need not end horribly, but policy makers in most regions have to start pressing hard on the brakes, not the accelerator.

Ben Bernanke!! it's Ken Rogoff on line 1!!

New Podcast

Hey, you podcastrians!

It's a new installment of the Russ and Mike show.

For which, I should add, I was paid my full market wage.

We talked about the Transantiago cluster fig. And talking to Russ is always fun.

A boy and his racket

Wow, for those few of us who still love tennis, what a great weekend! Venus and Serena finally played a good match against each other and Rafa and Roger's showdown fully deserves the overused adjective "epic".

Still, for me, the highlight of Wimbledon was the return of Marat Safin, both for beating that punk Djokovic and for his entertaining press conferences. Here is Safin on racket abuse:

"You can destroy one racket. You can destroy a chair. But you can't destroy a racket and a chair in the same match. There has to be a limit. Otherwise this is the tennis of a sick person."

This is apparently kind of a special Russian thing. Here's another interesting quote:


"You know, some rackets just like it rough," said Dmitry Tursunov, a Californian-based Russian. "Afterwards, you feel a bit sorry that you've done it, and you're like, 'Yeah, I'll make it up to you darling, my little racket'. But the racket is broken and you know that it's never going to be the same again."

(Here is the article where I found these quotes)

Of course, sometimes the racket wins (and look, it's another Russian in the tussle!)

Thanks, and thanks, and THANKS!

Lots of folks helped with the Money Grenade, and with getting word out about the difficulties I have been having even getting access to the normal assets of campaigning.

I can't cite them all. So, for those I have missed: a blanket thank you, and a heartfelt one. In addition to the net postings I have missed, I want to thank Joy Elliott, Paul Elledge, Linda Ellis, Susan Hogarth, Barbara Howe, Tom Howe, Phillip Rhodes, Rob Rose, Rusty Sheridan, John Szamosi, and Richard Schilhavy. (Again, I'm sorry if I left you out, but it's 6:30 am, and I am at the beach celebrating my anniversary with my wife, and I have to get back to the room; there's marital work to do...)

As I noted, there were lots of internet mentions, and I appreciate them. But there are some I have to mention specifically.

Bill Anderson, on LR's site.

Art Carden, with a nice thought piece. Very nice.

Ed Cone helped out. Thanks, Ed!

Greg Dirasian has his little boxer shorts all twisted up in knots.

Last Free Voice posted the announement; thanks!

Scottille News came up big, too.

Third Party Watch posted the info on the Money Grenade. A BIG help; we 'pree-shayt it, man!

BUT: The main prize, the above and beyond, the hardest working man in the Blogosphere for the Munger campaign, has got to be.... Steve Newton! This post clearly brought in quite a few contributions, and I appreciate it!

We gotta call our NBA team the "Noodlers"!!

From the Sunday Oklahoman:

I think a noodler should have been on our state quarter.

Thanks to the now legendary "Okie Noodling” film and the tournament it spawned, noodling for flathead catfish is part of the Oklahoma lore as much as cowboys and Indians, the Dust Bowl and football.

A reader of The Oklahoman recently suggested that the newspaper stop using the word "kin” in stories and instead use "relatives.” The word "kin,” he said, created a perception of backward country folk and made people think of banjos and "Deliverance.”

I can't imagine what this guy must think of noodling.

And here's the quote of the week:

Mark Murray, 36, a game warden in Oklahoma County, has been a noodler for almost 20 years.

"When a big fish grabs you, it doesn't matter how many times it's happened to you in your life, it's a huge adrenalin rush when a fish bites your hand,” he said. "It never gets old.”

I can't help thinking that in actuality, for me at least, it would get real old real fast.

No Worms, No Wimps, No Worries!

You can't make this stuff up.

Like I always say; Don't forget the "g" !!

Happy July 4th from KPC!

Halfway: Tick, Tick!

The July 3-4 Money Grenade is halfway home!

We got 150 contributions yesterday, for just over $5,000. That's a huge help, folks; thanks!

But if you are so nerdy that you are reading this site on a HOLIDAY, fercrissakes, GET THE WORD OUT.

Today is the last day. Post the web site somewhere, and let people know.
http://www.munger08.com

Thanks!

A tribute to Yakov Smirnov

In America, people are suspicious of the food.
In Communist China, the food is suspicious of you!

(big ups to commenter Sudo on failblog.org)

The Grenade is Going Off!

We’re doing pretty well on the growth of the Grenade Brigade!

As of noon today:

–60 contributions
–nearly $2,600

If you haven’t given yet….please go to the web site, and click on donate!

Name that Team!!

So OKC has got another NBA franchise, this time (maybe) for keeps! We are pretty happy here at Chez Angus. The owners have even said they will start by offering season tickets to folks who had Hornets season tickets (i.e. me!). Some possible bad news though, is that given how much $$$ has been forked already in the process, these tickets may be a tad pricey (Maybe Mungowitz will share his mailing list with me and we can have an Angus season ticket money bomb???).

Among the various pounds of Okie flesh extracted in the settlement is that the name "SuperSonics" stays in Seattle. Whatever, dudes. But it raises a fun question; what to call the new team?

Boomers? Noodlers? Tribe? Tornadoes?

Any of these strike your fancy? Any alternative suggestions?

Uribe to Farc: "I'm in ur base, freein' the hostages!!"

Wow, wow wow! Huge ups to Uribe and the Colombian military for tricking the FARCsters and freeing Ingrid Betencourt, 3 Americans and 11 Colombians without firing a shot!!

From the AP:

military intelligence agents infiltrated the guerrilla ranks and led the local commander in charge of the hostages, alias Cesar, to believe they were going to take them to Alfonso Cano, the guerrillas' supreme leader.

The hostages, who had been divided in three groups, were taken to a rendezvous where two disguised helicopters piloted by Colombian military agents were waiting. Betancourt said her hands and feet were bound, which she called "humiliating."

The pilots, she said, were posing as members of a relief organization, but "they were dressed like clowns," wearing Che Guevara shirts, so she assumed they were rebels.

But when they were airborne, she looked behind her and saw Cesar, who had treated her so cruelly for so many years, lying on the floor blindfolded.

"The chief of the operation said, `We're the national army. You're free,'" she said. "The helicopter almost fell from the sky because we were jumping up and down, yelling, crying, hugging one another. We couldn't believe it."

The operation, Santos said, "will go into history for its audacity and effectiveness."

"We wanted to have it happen as it did today," added armed forces chief Gen. Freddy Padilla. "Without a single shot. Without anyone wounded. Absolutely safe and sound, without a scratch."

This is huge, people. Now more than ever, I think Uribe's government can by and large eliminate the FARC!

First Lady Mary Easley Gets Big Pay Raise

WRAL has this story to tell:

First Lady Mary Easley said Wednesday that she wasn't bothered by criticism of a new contract she has with North Carolina State University that almost doubles her annual salary.

"Negative stories and exaggerations and partial stories go with the territory, and that's part of public life," she said in an interview with WRAL.

Easley has been an executive-in-residence and senior lecturer at N.C. State for the past three years, developing a speakers program and teaching a graduate course in public administration and courses in the Administrative Officers Management Program, which provides leadership training to law enforcement officers.

Her previous salary was $90,300 a year, but that increased Tuesday to $170,000 a year – an 88 percent increase – as part of a five-year contract.

Let's see....is this a negative story, an exaggeration, or a partial story?

1. Negative story: some attack on an action that misrepresents, or distorts.
2. Exaggeration: a claim that (for example) the salary is $170k, when in fact it is only $125k
3. Partial story: a claim that, while true, leaves out important relevant details.

Well, no details are supplied by the First Lady, so it can't be partial. No corrections are offered, so it can't be an exaggeration. I suppose it is a negative that the taxpayers of NC found out how much money Queen Mary is being paid.

But only from Queen Mary's perspective. From my perspective, it is NEWS.

And it is news because of this:

Gov. Mike Easley said Tuesday that high overseas travel bills are unfortunate but necessary if North Carolina wants to attract business, tourists and blockbuster art exhibits.
Easley's public comments were his first about the cost of trips he and his wife, Mary Easley, have taken. In April, the Easleys participated in a business-recruiting and tourism-promoting trip to Italy that cost more than $170,000. Last year, Mary Easley went to France with two others at a cost of more than $53,000. And in May, she went to Estonia and Russia with five others at a cost of more than $56,000.

Easley said high bills are unavoidable.

"It costs what it costs," Easley said. "I wish it didn't cost that much, but you know, let's be honest about it. A cheeseburger and onion rings is $60 over there. The dollar is very, very weak now. And that is why we were over there, in order to get those euros coming to the United States for tourism."

Um....what is the deal with all the $170,000's? If Mary Easley buys a car, does THAT cost $170,000, like her salary and her trip? Is this a favorite number/numerology thing? (Like Nancy Reagan, perhaps? Mary Easley thinks $170,000 is her lucky number?)

And, well...the mechanism escapes me. If I send my wife to Russia, and spend money taken at gunpoint from taxpayers, that means Euros come to the U.S.? And, not just the U.S., but to North Carolina?

That would be remarkable indeed. Since Russia is not part of the European Union, they would have to borrow Euros to send them over. Even if they enjoyed their lunches with Mary Easley a LOT, I don't think that would happen.

A Favor, Seriously. I Need Your Help!

Dear Friends:

As you know, I have been working to run for Governor of North Carolina, as a Libertarian, for the past two years. Well, we got the 105,000 signatures, and we got on the ballot.

But then things got…weird. I was invited to the final debate, in October, at Queens College in Charlotte. But then that debate got cancelled, and ANOTHER debate, only without the Libertarians in it, got scheduled instead.

The state of NC is really dragging its feet in getting out new forms, so Libertarians can register. The state Board of Elections will barely meet with us, and the county Boards of Elections won't accept checks for filing fees for our candidates. I put up more than $1,000 worth of yard signs, and the state took them all down, because (get this) there is "no election going on at this time"! Ouch.

The only thing that can change this is participation at the grassroots.

And the only kind of participation that matters is….small contributions, from lots of folks!

That's why we are running a small money bomb tomorrow. It's so small, it's really just a money grenade.

Won't you join the Munger "Grenade Brigade"? Here's what you do, ANYTIME ON JULY 3 or JULY 4. Yes, ANYTIME:

1. Go to http://www.munger08.com

2. Click on "contribute"

3. Give $25, or less (the amount doesn't matter as much as the fact you show your support for democracy and free choice in politics!)

That's it. That's all I need. Well, that and GET THE WORD OUT TO OTHER PEOPLE!

Please help! Even if you have already given, PLEASE just give something. It isn't the money, as much as it is the message that lots of folks care.

Mike Munger
http://www.munger08.com
munger4ncgov@gmail.com

A suitcase with legs

First Guido Wilson got caught hauling it to Argentina (see previous KPC coverage here and here). Then in Miami, some Venezuelans got caught on tape alternatively bribing and threatening Mr. Wilson to take responsibility for its contents. Now in the trial of Franklin Duran (the only threatener who didn't take a plea), Hugo Chavez has, for the first time, been directly linked to the case:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was personally involved in covering up his nation's role in an Argentine election scandal, according to an FBI statement by a Venezuelan witness who may testify at a criminal trial in Miami.ranklin Duran faces trial on U.S. charges he acted as an unregistered agent of Chavez's government. Duran conspired to silence a Florida businessman who toted $800,000 in a suitcase from Caracas to Buenos Aires, according to U.S. prosecutors. The Justice Department alleged the cash, seized Aug. 4, was intended for the campaign of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who was elected Argentina's president Oct. 28.

Duran, 40, was arrested Dec. 11 with two other Venezuelans, Carlos Kauffmann and Moises Maionica. Kauffmann and Maionica pleaded guilty and said in court that their country's intelligence agency, known as DISIP, played a central role in the cover-up of the payment.

In papers filed June 27, Duran said Kauffmann's FBI statement implicated Chavez. Kauffmann told the Federal Bureau of Investigation that ``Maionica told him and others that President Chavez was involved in the matter and had put DISIP Director Rangel Silva in charge, and that Rangel told him that President Chavez personally was involved in the matter,'' according to the motion in federal court in Miami.

Previous court filings didn't directly implicate Chavez in the case, known as the ``suitcase scandal'' in Argentina. U.S. prosecutors have filed court papers saying that DISIP and the office of Venezuela's vice president oversaw the plot.

While this is fun, I don't expect it to actually hurt Chavez at home in Venezuela. What amazes me a bit is how the Kirchners have so successfully dodged this bullet back in Argentina!

Obama was right about bitter white guys!

From the Telegraph:

Bill Clinton is so bitter about Barack Obama's victory over his wife Hillary that he has told friends the Democratic nominee will have to beg for his wholehearted support...The Telegraph has learned that the former president's rage is still so great that even loyal allies are shocked by his patronising attitude to Mr Obama, and believe that he risks damaging his own reputation by his intransigence. A senior Democrat who worked for Mr Clinton has revealed that he recently told friends Mr Obama could "kiss my ass" in return for his support. The Democrat told the Telegraph: "He's been angry for a while. But everyone thought he would get over it. He hasn't. I've spoken to a couple of people who he's been in contact with and he is mad as hell."He's saying he's not going to reach out, that Obama has to come to him. One person told me that Bill said Obama would have to quote kiss my ass close quote, if he wants his support."You can't talk like that about Obama - he's the nominee of your party, not some house boy you can order around."Hillary's just getting on with it and so should Bill."

As a public service, KPC has decided to run a picture of Bill Clinton's ass, so BO can decide whether or not he wants to pucker up!

Holy Crap! Robert Shiller strikes again

In Sunday's NY Times, Shiller continues his streak of surrealistically bad editorials. This one advocates a second tax rebate because the effects of the first one are "not going to mean the difference between prosperity and recession", and a "dreaded serious recession still seems very much a possibility"

How does he know?


Consider the Fair simulation model (fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/main2.htm), a free Web site that embodies much of Keynes’s theory and is offered by Professor Ray C. Fair of Yale. With the “U.S. Model” on this site, I increased transfers from government to households (“TRGH”) by $100 billion in the second quarter of 2008. The results showed a $59 billion increase in 2008 gross domestic product. That is less than half of 1 percent of G.D.P.

The simulation also showed that this year’s rebates would have further repercussions in 2009, bolstering G.D.P. by $36 billion that year. After 2009, the effects of this stimulus will just sputter out.

All I can say is LOL! and WTF?? I too went to Fair's site this morning and found the following at the top of the page:

Latest Update: April 30, 2008: The US model has been updated through 2008:1. NO RECESSION PREDICTED---see Forecast Memo. The latest version of the multicountry model is the MCC model. See below.

People, I am not making this up. Plus in the FAQs about the model I found the following statement:

The United States model was developed by Ray Fair in 1974-1976, and it has been used since then for research, forecasting, policy analysis, and teaching. It has been available for use on personal computers since 1983 and was the first such model to be so.

Now I am not knocking Fair; he is upfront about what this thing is (i.e. a dinosaur). I am knocking Shiller for writing, and the editors of the Times for publishing, lazy crap like this.

Wow! I think that is going to leave a mark....

Brother Newton does some reviewing, and some Fiske-ing.

Owie. I think that is going to make a mark.

Actually, I no longer think this is very funny

Ryan Teague Beckwith, a fine guy who has treated the Libertarians perfectly fairly, is finding all this a little too funny, I think.

Check this.

Now, my response can be found here. And I'm not laughing. I am pretty angry. This is just not right.

UPDATE: Ryan noted I had misspelled his name. My apologies. I'm waiting for my apology from the state, for violating the stated will of more than 100,000 NC citizens for Libertarian registration to be an option.

Suing the Sun in Chicago

Email from Angry Sensible Man:

This is from the Chronicle of Higher Ed. What is this world coming to? Everyone needs a personal lawyer.

New Tune on Campus: Take Me Out to the Ballgame, and Bring My Lawyer

In Evanston, Ill., the great American pastime of baseball is being displaced by the threat of another popular American sport ? litigation.

Since 2000, Northwestern University has allowed children’s baseball teams from nearby communities to use its Rocky Miller Park for games.

But the university recently told the American Legion-sponsored baseball clubs in Evanston and Wilmette, Ill., that they were no longer welcome because the parents of a young pitcher were threatening a lawsuit, reports the Pioneer Local, a local newspaper.

The parents were concerned about the safety of the park because the sun shines into the eyes of the pitcher.

In a message to the ballclubs, Northwestern’s assistant athletics director of facilities, Scott Arey, wrote, “Unfortunately, Northwestern University is not able to do anything to mitigate the sun’s effect on the vision of the pitcher, so we have made the unfortunate decision that we can no longer safely host these games.” ?Eric Kelderman

Oh, The Places We Will Go!

Wow. Amazing. This guy thinks that all we need to do is study sociology, and the government will work better.

No.

All we need to do is study public choice, and STOP USING GOVERNMENT FOR THINGS IT CAN'T DO, like create "justice" in income. And government would work better.

Behavioral Decision Research, Legislation, and Society: Three Cases

Max Bazerman
Capitalism and Society, March 2007

"There is little doubt that the field of economics has had a much greater influence on government policy in Washington and in other world capitals than have the other social sciences (Bazerman and Malhotra, 2006). In terms of influence, the economists have won. Unfortunately, government policies have led to millions of jobs and tens of millions of retirement plans being lost to accounting scandals, the commercial extinction of the majority of the world's large fisheries, the needless deaths of thousands of Americans each year because of the stupidity of the U.S. organ donation system, and numerous other inefficiencies (Bazerman and Malhotra, 2006). Economic logic lies behind each of these disasters, without the input needed from other
informative social sciences. The stories in this article extend this argument to claim that the failure of courts and policymakers to be informed about other social sciences (in this case, behavioral decision research) leads to the corruption of policy-formulation process and low-quality outcomes for society. Creating wise policies in society requires us to incorporate a modern understanding of unconscious or unintentional processes in decision making. For far too long, the unconscious has been associated with psychological perspectives that have not stood up well to empirical testing (e.g., Freudian psychology). Currently, a very different approach to understanding the human mind has been developed by rigorous scientists, who
have confirmed the importance of unconscious or unintentional processes (Banaji et al., 2004). Leaders must consider how the institutions that they create affect both intentional and unintentional bases of misconduct.

Without such attention to these forces, it is far too easy to accept the institutions that drive unethical behavior despite the absence of what is traditionally viewed as an unethical act. When creating policy, we need to apply sound social science logic and use the best empirical data to assess what is likely to occur under different policies. Far too often, we accept the status quo (Baron, 1998), particularly if economic theory (lacking data) can show that it is feasible that the status quo is acceptable. In policy-making domains, this feasibility test should be replaced with the broader question of where the preponderance of the evidence lies.

Furthermore, this evidence should come from a variety of social sciences. We should give the current state of a policy issue far less weight, as it is clear that enormous inefficiencies exist in so many current policies (Bazerman et al., 2001; Baron). In each of the three stories in this paper, I believe that government decision-makers overweighed a simplistic version of economic theory. In the auditor story, the SEC misapplied the logic of cost-benefit analysis and failed to make the appropriate changes needed to create auditor independence. In the antitrust story, the pharmaceutical firms attempted to justify their behavior by showing that economic theory could be contorted to explain their deal in a manner that did not restrain trade. Finally, in the tobacco story, the prevailing belief in pure economic theory was used to mount a Daubert challenge to the use of behavioral decision research. Ample evidence suggests that economic theory plays a central role in the policy-formulation process. It is unfortunate that it does so to the exclusion of useful information from other social sciences.

Milton Friedman argued that unrealistic assumptions in economic theory do not matter as long as economic theory predicts behavior, and that economic theory does a pretty good job of predicting behavior (Friedman, 1953). The problem is that other social sciences have advanced to the extent that we now know of systematic patterns when we can adjust economic theory to make better predictions, yet decision-makers are not using this knowledge from other social sciences sufficiently. Economists too often counter that their theory has rigor (i.e., it is formalized) and explains all behavior, as compared to other social sciences that have diverse theories for different contexts (Ferraro et al., 2006). In the perceived battle between economics
and the other social sciences, it often appears that economics wins. Yet when harder physical scientists look at economics, they typically are deeply critical of the illogic of building formalizations on faulty assumptions (Beinhocker, 2006). The debate about the appropriateness of using different theories should depend on our purpose. If our goal is the scientific pursuit of a single theory to explain all human behavior, economic theory and evolutionary theory are doing pretty well. If our goal is to make specific predictions in specific contexts, we know of many contexts in which behavioral decision research and other social sciences regularly outperform
economic theory. And if we want to create optimal public policy, we clearly need to combine economic theory with useful insights from many other fields."

(Nod to KL, who already works better)

Bill Rhoden gets it badly wrong

with his fevered obeisance to to the bizarre god of a college education. He praises Joe Dumars to the skies for going back and getting his college degree last month and makes him into a role model for all the up and coming young'uns who don't care at all about college. This is strange in several ways. First Dumars went to college for 4 years. He could have graduated in that time. He didn't leave school early and presumably he didn't have too many credits to go for his degree. Second, Joe Dumars is one of the top 5 executives in all of sports. He didn't need a college degree to do his job better than almost anyone else. The true message of the Joe Dumars saga is "don't sweat getting a degree"!!! Third, Joe got his sheepskin via internet classes. I have to be brutally honest here: that is code for saying Joe didn't have to do much work or learn very much to get those credits. Sure there may be some exceptions but e-learning is an oxymoron on par with jumbo shrimp and military intelligence.

Rhoden then tries to apply his version of the lesson from Dumars to the young'uns:

In the N.B.A. draft on Thursday, college freshmen made up the first three picks for the first time. Five of the first seven players selected were freshmen, also a first.

The N.B.A. can spin that any way it pleases, but it exposes a disconnect. Most of these young players, forced to attend college because of the N.B.A.’s minimum age requirement (19) and its condition that eligible players be at least a year removed from high school, are not close to graduating and probably aren’t thinking about going back.

One year in college isn’t the answer either, and a growing number of people inside the lawyer-run N.B.A. know it.

They know, as Dumars came to understand, that it’s fine to have photo ops in which players read books to young people. But how can you preach the value of an education if you don’t value it enough to return to college to finish what you began?

Beginning immediately, scrupulous agents should insist that as a condition of taking them on as clients, athletes should be willing to take courses toward a degree within three years of signing their first contract.

Commissioner David Stern was ferocious in the pursuit of a minimum-age limit. If the N.B.A. really cares about the long-term welfare of its young incoming athletes, it will push for a rule that makes young players move without the ball toward a degree.

Call it the Dumars rule: better late than never at all.

He is actually calling for mandatory post-secondary continuing education for all non-degreed NBA players! Could there be a weirder and less necessary cause to get fired up about? And why? I guess so the league won't seem hypocritical when it runs pro education PSAs and to protect young players from exploitation?

To protect players, how about the NBA licensing agents, or having mandatory financial planning classes for rookies. In terms of the league currently being hypocritical in preaching education, has our public school system fallen so far that literacy requires a college degree? Really?

Saturday Links

Hey Rafa Nadal is blogging!!

The funniest sentence I've read in a long time is in this post. Can you figure out which one?

Tyler sez WALL-E is too good for its own good.

Greg Mankiw apparently doesn't get out much.

Like Thomas Edison, this guy knows 10,000 things that don't make good pants!

The World's Greatest Instrument is still a Gibson Les Paul!

and not (as some would have it) settler mortality.

So says David Albouy in his new NBER working paper (which is on its second revision at the AER).

Here is the abstract:

In a seminal contribution, Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001) argue property-rights institutions powerfully affect national income, using estimated mortality rates of early European settlers to instrument capital expropriation risk. However 36 of the 64 countries in their sample are assigned mortality rates from other countries, typically based on mistaken or conflicting evidence. Also, incomparable mortality rates from populations of laborers, bishops, and soldiers – often on campaign – are combined in a manner favoring their hypothesis. When these data issues are controlled for, the relationship between mortality and expropriation risk lacks robustness, and instrumental-variable estimates become unreliable, often with infinite confidence intervals.

The AJR paper has been very influential, so this paper is potentially very important and well worth reading (here is a link to an ungated version).

The indictment is strong. Here are some details:

The historical sources containing information on mortality rates during colonial times are
thin, which makes constructing a series of potential European settler mortality rates challenging. AJR construct their series by combining the mortality rates of soldiers (Curtin 1989, 1998), laborers (Curtin 1995), and bishops (Gutierrez 1986). Researchers have been eager to use this new series, particularly given its promise as an instrumental variable for institutions. Currently, over twenty published articles, and many more working papers, use AJR’s settler mortality data. This paper argues that despite AJR’s ingenuity and diligence, there are a number of reasons to doubt the reliability and comparability of their European settler mortality rates and the conclusions which depend on them. First, out of 64 countries in their sample, only 28 countries have mortality rates that originate from within their own borders. The other 36 countries in the sample are assigned rates based on AJR’s conjectures as to which countries have similar disease environments. These assignments are based on weak and sometimes inaccurate foundations. Six assignments are based upon AJR’s misunderstanding of former names of countries in Africa. Another sixteen assignments are based on a questionable use of bishop mortality data in Latin America from Gutierrez (1986), which are based on 19 deaths. Additionally, AJR use the bishop rates multiplied by a factor of 4.25, a procedure that appears to contradict evidence in their own sources. At a minimum, the sharing of mortality rates across countries requires that statistics be corrected for clustering (Moulton, 1990). This correction noticeably reduces the significance of AJR’s results. If, in the hope of reducing measurement error, AJR’s 36 conjectured mortality rates are dropped from the sample, the empirical relationship between expropriation risk and mortality rates weakens substantially, particularly in the presence of additional covariates. Second, AJR’s mortality rates never come from actual European settlers, although some settler rates are available in their sources. Instead, AJR’s rates come primarily from European and American soldiers in the nineteenth century. In some countries, AJR use rates from soldiers at peace in barracks, while in others, they use rates from soldiers on campaign. Soldiers on
campaign typically have higher mortality from disease, and AJR use campaign rates more often in countries with greater expropriation risk and lower GDP. Thus, AJR’s measures of mortality artificially favor their hypothesis. In a few countries, AJR use the maximum mortality rates of African laborers, although these do not appear comparable with average soldier mortality rates. Controlling for the source of the mortality rates weakens the empirical relationship between expropriation risk and mortality rates substantially. Furthermore, if these controls are added and the conjectured data are removed, the relationship virtually disappears. Additional data provided by AJR in their Response (2005) do not restore this relationship.

Lyndon Johnson bared his scars....

...and so did Andy Roddick:

Q. Last year when you talked to us here in this room after your last match you were pretty distraught. What is your feeling right now?

ANDY RODDICK: Uhm, you know, pretty distraught. But, I mean, you know, probably I don't know what I am. Uhm, probably just disappointed.

You know, I literally I mean, you know, any chance I got I pretty much just choked it. So, you know, that's tough to deal with, and that's not something that you really want to do, you know.

So that's probably that's disappointing, you know. It's not an easy thing to say, but it's pretty much what happened.

I could sit here and try to dance around it all night, but, I mean, you guys watched it. It was what it was. It's like you want something so bad you almost squeeze too tight.

Jon Wertheim joins the club

The Angus Anti-Djokovic Club:

You just can't call out the five-time defending champ and then go out in straight sets on the third day of the tournament. I thought Djokovic played a lazy -- dare we even say cowardly? -- match. Bad body language, little tactical adjustments, a symbolic double-fault on match point.

Full article is here.

Link to My Keynote Speech, in its Entirety

Finally, a link to a video of the keynote speech I gave in Denver. I think I posted it before, but people were still asking....

A step in the right direction: Even George Will gets it!

Yes, even Georgie "the sexual intellectual" Will knows that it's nuts to not raise the limits on visas for skilled foreigners:

The semiconductor industry's problem is entangled with a subject about which the loquacious presidential candidates are reluctant to talk -- immigration, specifically that of highly educated people. Concerning whom, U.S. policy should be: A nation cannot have too many such people, so send us your Ph.D.s yearning to be free.

Instead, U.S. policy is: As soon as U.S. institutions of higher education have awarded you a Ph.D., equipping you to add vast value to the economy, get out. Go home. Or to Europe, which is responding to America's folly with "blue cards" to expedite acceptance of the immigrants America is spurning.

Two-thirds of doctoral candidates in science and engineering in U.S. universities are foreign-born. But only 140,000 employment-based green cards are available annually, and 1 million educated professionals are waiting -- often five or more years -- for cards. Congress could quickly add a zero to the number available, thereby boosting the U.S. economy and complicating matters for America's competitors.

Suppose a foreign government had a policy of sending workers to America to be trained in a sophisticated and highly remunerative skill at American taxpayers' expense, and then forced these workers to go home and compete against American companies. That is what we are doing because we are too generic in defining the immigrant pool.

Barack Obama and other Democrats are theatrically indignant about U.S. companies that locate operations outside the country. But one reason Microsoft opened a software development center in Vancouver is that Canadian immigration laws allow Microsoft to recruit skilled persons it could not retain under U.S. immigration restrictions. Mr. Change We Can Believe In is not advocating the simple change -- that added zero -- and neither is Mr. Straight Talk.

John McCain's campaign Web site has a spare statement on "immigration reform" that says nothing about increasing America's intake of highly qualified immigrants. Obama's site says only: "Where we can bring in more foreign-born workers with the skills our economy needs, we should." "Where we can"? We can now.

Solutions to some problems are complex; removing barriers to educated immigrants is not.

A Step in the Right Direction: Bob Barr is MY Guy for Prez

Since Angus and I have in the past disagreed about John McCain, perhaps it is not surprising that we also disagree about Bob Barr. (I should note that Angus really only claims that McCain is easily the best of the available candidates, not some kind of ideal.)

I have discussed this a bit elsewhere, as some have noticed.

But, in regards to Angus' questions (which, I should note, are perfectly fair questions):

1. Ron Paul has said he would have supported the Defense of Marriage Act, for the same federalism reasons as Bob Barr. And, I have heard Bob's discussion of this at the LP Convention, AND have talked to him about it at length in private. It is quite clear to me that he wants the federal government out of the "regulation of marriage" business, and that is at least a step in the right direction; it's a libertarian position. If some folks think it isn't libertarian ENOUGH, they are entitled to their views. But many of those folks aren't registered to vote, and don't consider the Libertarian Party to be anything important anyway.

2. As for the immigration/English only question, it is fair to say that the LP is divided on this issue. LOTS of libertarians, and some Libertarians (big L), agree with the idea that we need to control immigration. It happens that I would be for open borders as an ideal, and anything closer to that as a policy direction. But I get LOTS of argument about this, from voters. In fact, a lot of voters who would otherwise support me tell me they CAN'T, because of my stance on immigration. So, while Barr's view is different from mine, there are LOTS of Libertarians who agree, and it is a clear vote winner.

Look, the most the Libertarian Party has ever gotten was 1.1%, in 1980. And, as I have said before, I clearly remember that Angus CLAIMED to have voted for Ed Clark that year, though of course it may have been a jest. If in fact the Libertarians got 5% this year, that would make a HUGE difference in many ways, at every level.

Bob Barr is my man. I have already contributed twice, and plan to max out my contributions, up to the limit prescribed by law.

For more details on Bob's position, and whether a check of the record says he's a Libertarian, check this very fine post.

First NameLast NameAmount$25$50$75$100$250$500$1000$1500$2300

Amazing: There Really IS a Second Amendment, Virginia!!

Cool. The Court read the Constitution. Wow.

Is Micheal Beasley really a "clown" and if so does it matter?

Adrian Wojnarowski, via an anonymous "respected NBA source" throws Micheal Beasley WAY underneath the bus on the morning of draft day.

“He’s almost always talking, and almost never on time,” the respected basketball official said. “If he’s on time, he’ll be the last one to show up. And he’s always got a question. He’ll ask a lot of questions because he wants people to think he’s paying attention – because he’s not paying attention.

“He’s not a bad kid, but I do think he makes similar decisions as bad ones do. He isn’t malicious, or even disrespectful, but he makes the dumb decisions that bad people make.”

Beasley is the best talent in the draft. There isn’t a close second. Whatever people want to say about Memphis point guard Derrick Rose, he won’t win the honor of the No. 1 pick in Thursday night’s draft as much as Beasley will blow it. Beasley is a long, 6-foot-8½ , responsible for a surreal 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds as a Kansas State freshman, and he still hasn’t made a convincing case to Chicago and Miami.

Beasley has done little to change minds in his meetings with the two teams. For everything his AAU coach and agent did to carefully control his college environment, his path to the pros, they’ve struggled to polish Beasley’s image. There were six high schools and relentlessly foolish stunts and an attitude of indifference and clownery everywhere but the basketball court. After months of probing him, Beasley was strangely amused by what the Bulls and Heat officials were most interested in discovering about him.

In my opinion, the only crazy thing would be not drafting him. He is a monster on the court and that is what matters, right? I actually hope he doesn't go to the Heat, because that franchise is stuck in self destruct mode. If Beasley by some miracle falls to 4th, I would be one happy happy okie!

So let me get this straight...

Bob Barr is the Libertarian Party candidate for president? This Bob Barr??




Now I admit to being a non-voting poseur belonging to no party, but I'm pretty sure that Barr is in no way shape or form a libertarian.

From this blog post I gathered the impression that he voted for the Patriot Act and the Defense of Marriage Act.

From this website I see that Barr sponsored a bill making English the official language of the US and voted against raising the limit on visas for skilled workers

So I have to ask, WTF?? The man rocks one hell of a nice mustache, but is that really all it takes?

Has the LP sold its soul for the meager pottage of getting 5% of the vote in the fall?

a big KPC thank you to Marat Safin

who administered a severe beatdown to the fuzzy headed, gum flapping, arrogant, Serbian idol Novak Djokovic today at Wimby.

I like how the AP put it: Novak Djokovic was upset in straight sets by Marat Safin in the second round at Wimbledon on Wednesday, ending the Serb's chances of testing his theory about Roger Federer's vulnerability.

Post match, Novak showed his usual charm:

Safin is a player who is known as a big talent, but again, he makes a lot of unforced errors," he said. "I had opportunities, but I just made some unforced errors, which were really uncharacteristic, without any sense.

"Safin still has his ups and downs, and is known for his mental instability in some ways, but he's still a great player. He wants to step it up again. (Today) he was mentally there."

Maybe Marat is inspired by the great play of his sister Dinara. I'd love to see him make a deep run in this tournament, but I thank him for getting this fool Djokovic off the radar.