Sunday, August 16, 2009

BDM: The New Nostradamus

Print....(NYT Mag)

(Nod to Kevin L, who knew in advance that this was going to happen)


Anonymous said...

Rather underwhelming!

John said...

That was kind of interesting. I think he needed way more than 20 minutes to make his case, though. As it was, it felt unconvincing.

As a layman in these matters, the question I had is that if you accept that you can count on people to behave rationally relative to their values, and accept that you can know enough about those values to accurately set your initial conditions, how do you account for changes in values? People change their minds quite often, and not just on matters of fact. And the longer your simulation, the more likely the error adds up, no?