Is Greece the Lehman Brothers of Europe?
It looks like Greece is going to finally call Germany's bluff. The head of the party projected to win a plurality in the June election (Alexis Tsipras, head of Syriza), wants no part of the agreed upon package and expects Germany to keep financing Greece with few to no conditions or else they will simply default on everything.
It's a shame for them they didn't do this a lot sooner when they had more leverage. German and French banks have had several years to write down or otherwise reduce their exposure to Greece.
Given this reduced direct leverage and all the rhetoric from Germany and the ECB, things may come to a head this summer.
Will Germany let Greece go the way Paulson and Bernanke let Lehman Brothers go?
If so, will they be able to contain the fallout and be able to keep Spain (and Italy) in the EZ?
I say it's 60% that Greece goes this summer and 60% that no one else does over the next year.
One thing that is 100%: we are living in interesting times.