Monday, March 02, 2009

Predicting Elections is Child's Play!

"Predicting Elections: Child's Play!"

John Antonakis & Olaf Dalgas
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5918/1183

Abstract:
In two experiments, children and adults rated pairs of faces from election races. Naïve adults judged a pair on competence; after playing a game, children chose who they would prefer to be captain of their boat. Children's (as well as adults') preferences accurately predicted actual election outcomes.

(Nod to KL)

1 comment:

prison rodeo said...

Andrew Gelman had a bit of a rant on this a couple days ago. His main point: They call "accurately" getting things right roughly 70 percent of the time. Of course, you can get to 90% of so just using party and incumbency, so...