I want to go on record as being bullish on 2011 for the US economy. I want to predict average growth for the year of 4.2%.
Yes, de-leveraging is not over. Yes, housing probably has not hit bottom. But, my view is we are poised for a semi-robust expansion.
But I'm afraid to come out and say it.
Why?
Well I'm not proud to admit this but I'm afraid of the House Republicans and the crazy sh*t they will no doubt try and pull. Yes I know, checks and balances and all that, but they worry me.
If they go after the Fed, throw a lot of heat and light on rolling back HCR and the financial oversight bill, and try to shut down the government over the debt ceiling, we could be right back into economic doldrums.
Look, I am not a big fan of the Fed or of HCR as currently constituted, but my advice to the Republicans would be to wait until after 2012 when the economy should be much sounder and maybe you also have the Senate to try and make your move.
The biggest thing Washington could do right now to help the economy would be to take a 14 month vacation.
2 comments:
Ah, the Augustinian argument.
In similar news, people always tell us that now is not the right moment to reform the GSEs. The market is too high, too low, too rising, too falling, or too stable, in order to do anything at all.
So, John, you hear me saying "lord grant me chastity but not now?"
Interesting
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