I've been droning on (and on) about how the Fed has backed themselves into a weird position where if the economy keeps growing decently, they will have to backtrack on one of their two promises.
Promise #1 is 2% inflation. Promise #2 is a doozy: no short term interest rate hikes until the second half of 2014!
Increasingly, others are growing more skeptical of promise #2.
In CNBCs survey of "67 economists and equity and fixed income managers", it found that "nine out of 10 market participants don’t believe the Fed will wait that long. In fact, 54 percent believe the first Fed interest rate hike will come by 2013."
I wonder what The Bernank and crew are thinking? Are they banking on a recession to save their "credibility"? Do they think there is enough weasel room in the wording of promise #2 that they can claim compliance no matter when they raise rates? Do they regret getting pressured into making promise #2?
People, which is more likely to happen, the Fed keeping promise #2 or Congress allowing the planned sequestrations to go through without any changes?
Hat tip to LeBron.