Job Report Friday

Not a good initial number, people.  88,000 net new non-farm jobs in March (though the numbers for January and February were revised upward). Sure, this is an imprecise number, subject to revision, with a wide confidence interval, but....OUCH.

Full report is here.

The interesting question is whether this is just a soon to be revised blip on the road to full employment or if this is a harbinger of another spring-summer slowdown after a promising fall & winter. Last year showed a definite V shape in job growth as did 2011 to a lesser extent.

Another interesting question is how long after the end of a recession can you still refer to higher than the historical average unemployment as "cyclical'?

This is especially relevant because the reduction in unemployment we've seen during the "recovery" is largely due to declines in the labor force participation rate!

10.98%: What the unemployment rate would be if labor force participation was the same as in January 2009
— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) April 5, 2013

Sure, some of the decline may be due to demographics, but things are worse than what the headline numbers show.