Motes vs. Beams

People, Dean Baker is quite a piece of work. He goes after people hard with what I will charitably describe as less than a fully correct analysis.

Here's another example, a post purporting to explain "Robert Samuelson's confusion on real interest rates:

In an economy operating below capacity, it would be desirably to have very low real interest rates to boost investment. This means that the cost of borrowing is low relative to the return on investment. Because interest rates can't go negative, it is impossible for real interest rates to fall as much as would be desired given the weakness of Japan's economy. It would be ideal if it could keep its nominal rates at their current near zero level, while inflation rose to 3.0 or 4.0 percent.

The other reason why inflation would be desirable is that it would allow homeowners to get out from under their debt burdens. If wages rose 3.0-4.0 percent annually in step with inflation, the burden of a fixed mortgage debt would be eroded through time. Also, if house prices rose in step with inflation, consumers would gain equity in their homes.

Excuse me for a moment.....

[AAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!]

Thanks, now I feel a bit better. I think I may even be able to make a couple comments.

First, if the real rate is negative, then investment projects with a negative return may actually be "profitable". If the real rate is -4%, then a project with a -2% return "works". Strange way to rebuild an economy, no?

Second and more importantly, the most widely used model of the real interest rate is the Fisher equation which states that the nominal rate is equal to the required real rate plus a premium for expected inflation. It is beyond bizarre (but sadly not uncommon) to assert that inflation can rise significantly without nominal rates also rising.

Third, if inflation rose in a predictable manner, mortgage interest rates would rise as well (see point two) and there'd be no "savings" on new mortgages.

Fourth, to the extent that inflation was unanticipated, yes, borrowers would gain. But this is a zero sum game. Lenders, who after all are people, consumers, and voters too would lose an equivalent amount.

Fifthly and finally, as for how inflation builds home equity, all I can say there is WTF??? Housing is in the CPI. If all prices go up 3% how is the real value of your home increasing?

People, I am fine with trying a little bit of inflation here in the US of A. There are tons of idle cash sitting around, inflation is a tax on holding money, so maybe peoples will spend more. I don't think QE2 is the first sign of the apocalypse. But, even if it works to the specifications of its most ardent supporters, it's not going to come close to solving our problems.

Interesting Video

I don't think there should be laws against anti-gay hate speech, or bullying. A teacher is obliged to protect ALL students from abuse and threats. A classroom has to be safe, and to feel safe. Singling out gay students for special protections will make the problem worse.

This video is impressive. The kid is quite a speaker.

But the article raises some questions, to me. First, no Confederate flags? Really? In my high school, that would have meant sending about half the kids home. Even the women. Yes, it would have. There were lots more Confederate flags than U.S. flags on jackets, pockets, and so on.

Second, "the" home of the KKK? Nice that we have those dangerous maniacs segregated off into one small town in Michigan, but my impression was that the problem was somewhat more widespread, frankly. It's hard to prove a negative, but it appears that the headquarters of the Michigan KKK was near Howell, emphasizing the "WAS." If you are really worried about hate speech, perhaps you shouldn't go making up blatantly false stuff about Howell, MI.

Finally, what is the procedure for expelling a kid? I don't see why the teacher would be a hero for just telling the bully / problem kid to "get out of my classroom." Sure, it's a hassle to follow the rules. But the 14 year old kid who was told to "get out" is in school because the law forces him to be there. You can't just let him wander the halls. If the teacher was suspended for ignoring the rules on suspensions, then I have to say the suspension is consistent with standard practice.

So, two cheers for the teacher. And three cheers for the kid in the vid; good advocacy, and well done standing up to bullies that way.

(Nod to Anonyman)

Handwritten Thank You Notes

Your note, with nicer handwriting. M-Per dishes.

Exchange Rates

My man T-Oat kicks Danny D right in the monads...

Sovereign Citizens

This is quite disturbing, in several ways. Read the comments, on YouTube.

I can't imagine what good these people think can come from murdering police officers. Their job is to enforce the law. Some of the laws are good, some of the laws are bad. Cops don't get to decide which are which.

Going to Go Blind....

I have to have cataract surgery, in December. Not a big deal, and with the new lens my eyesight should be dramatically improved. No more glasses. Yippee!

Anyway, while we were driving, the LMM asked what the recovery would be like. I jokingly said that the doctor had said it would really help my eyesight if I had a lot of sex.

She stared out the window, and then said, "Well I guess you are going to go blind then, one way or another!"

Yikes... I must be a bad influence.

Airport Security: Excessive or Just a Hard Problem?

A disturbing little video about a very upset little girl.

I had been wondering about the comparison to Israeli security on El Al. They have never had a hijacking. And there are some folks who wish the Israelis harm, so ... aren't those procedures better? No shoe taking off, no groping, no x-ray porn?

Maybe not. A sensible response from the V-Consp. Three hours? I guess it's not so simple.

(Nod to Angry Alex)

what goes around comes around

Alan Blinder is up in arms at the audacity of foreign leaders calling QE2 "currency manipulation". So is President Obama, Paul Krugman, and a host of other luminaries.

Here's Blinder in today's WSJ: "But calling QE2 "currency manipulation" is a grotesque abuse of language".

His (correct) argument is that QE2 is basic everyday expansionary monetary policy just applied to a different portion of the yield curve. Sure it may have the side effect of lowering the dollar, but.....

People, the foreign reaction is a predictable consequence of our insistence in labeling China's fixed exchange rate as "currency manipulation".

A fixed exchange rate is a basic everyday policy regime. Bretton Woods was a system of fixed exchange rates, so the US has had a fixed exchange rate in the not so distant past. The countries of Western Europe continued to struggle to achieve a system of fixed exchange rates post Bretton Woods, culminating in the creation of the Euro which is a system of fixed exchange rates between all the participating countries.

Here's another gem from Blinder: "the US is sovereign nation with a right to its own monetary policy".

And China isn't???

Our administration and elite pundits have been blaming other countries for our problems for a while now, so it's not surprising that many other countries are enjoying their chance to throw it back into our faces.

Duke Haters

I have been teaching at Duke since 1997.

But I hate, just detest, Duke basketball. I respect, even very much admire, our coach, think the players are all great kids, it's all good. But I cannot abide the team, the cause, the self-love.

Watch this, and tell me I'm wrong.

Let Me Help You Pack!

KPC friend Veronique de Rugy tells a fine Gov. Christie Story.

The Blonde suggests that this be the bumper sticker for 2012: "Let's all help them pack!"

Ban on Dying

French town of Sarpourenx bans dying.

Two problems occur to me. First, how to enforce the ban? Second, I'm pretty sure this means they will have to raise the retirement age, right?

(Nod to the LMM)

It's so EZ to save the country

The NY Times set out a challenge: YOU fix the Budget! So I tried and it was easy. You can see my plan from this link.

I (more than) balanced the budget in 2015 and 2030 with 90% coming from spending cuts and 10% from new revenues.

I left the Bush tax rates in place. I didn't get rid our our current tax breaks for mortgages and health insurance. I didn't put on a national sales tax.

I did put on a carbon tax and some type of estate tax. I raised the social security retirement age one year to 68, and I capped medicare growth at GDP growth +1% point starting in 2013.

The rest was just straight up, old fashioned spending cuts.

I would put the chances of anything within two standard deviations of my proposal getting through our political system at right around 2 or 3 percent tops.

But the bottom line is that we are not in budget trouble because of any fundamental structural economic or demographic problems. We are in trouble because our politics are disfunctional.

My idea of Hell

"ACADEMICS at one Australian university have to fill in 14 forms for a PhD student to get from pre-admission to graduation. Those 14 compulsory forms demand 270 separate pieces of information. Each of those items of information has to be supplied, on average, 2.7 times. For each PhD student, academics lose 580 minutes of precious time on form-filling, according to a conservative estimate."

Story is here.

At my university, I get by with having my grad students fill out their own forms and me signing them! That's a foolproof system, right?

What's in a name?

In the recent Brazilian elections, 6 candidates registered themselves as "Barack Obama" (they all lost). One candidate ran as "Chico Bin Laden" (and lost). Over 200 candidates registered their names as some riff on outgoing president Lula's name. There is much more here and here.

My favorite name of all and one person that I'd consider breaking my lifelong "no voting" policy to vote for?

Kung Fu Fatty! (not making this up)

Free-trade Theatre

People, we have met the enemy, and he is us. Only in the wonderland world of Democratic party politics can a President visit a country with which we ALREADY HAVE A SIGNED FTA and come out saying that he failed to reach a trade deal!

At first I thought I'd started down the road to dementia or insanity: "no deal? Wow, I thought we signed one back in 2007, I must be losing my mind".

Well, some people have, and I don't think I'm one of them (at least not in this case!).

Obama travels the earth proclaiming we are going to double our exports, but refuses to push for Congressional action on already signed FTAs that on balance open foreign markets more to us than ours to the other country.

I guess that vaguely positive double-talk about the benefits of trade is better than the "renegotiate NAFTA" rhetoric that came from candidate Obama, but it is still pathetic.

Here he is people: the stupidest man alive

yes Mick Cornett, you KNOW I'm talking 'bout you!

Well hello Thunder...

it's so nice to have you back where you belong.

People I've been sweating out a lackluster start of the season here in the OKC, but last night Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both reported for duty big time. It was really the first game of the season where Durant was really the Durant everyone is expecting.

Just a great game. When the Thunder went on a 10-0 run late to take a 5 point lead, Durant totally took over the game and the arena went nuts. It is really cool to see how hard OKC has fallen for this team and this game (i.e. the NBA).

Thunder still really need a reliable 3rd scoring option though. Krstic & Harden have started to contribute, but they need a strong spot up shooter badly.

My old Macro professor goes off on QE backlash

An altogether excellent (and self-admitted) rant by Larry Meyer.

Here's my favorite bit:

What about the Asian economies, including China, which complain that the Fed is contributing to asset bubbles around the world?

The real question we have to ask is why FOMC policy is affecting asset prices abroad: The answer is that the Asian economies competitively intervene in their exchange markets to manipulate the value of their currencies! As a result, they cannot have independent central banks. They are, therefore, importing U.S. monetary policy. Is that policy right for them? Hell no!

How should the FOMC respond to these countries? The Committee should say: You have no one to blame but yourselves. Hasn’t the U.S. government already advised you to float your currencies and not intervene? With respect to China, by the way, wouldn’t an appreciation of the renminbi be just what the doctor ordered? Isn’t just what’s needed to restrain inflation and aggregate demand?

What should Asia be saying to the Fed? Thank you! Please keep the U.S. economy out of a recession that could greatly threaten the global recovery.

So much win! Oh and by the way Asia, you're welcome!

Pay no attention to that Okie behind the curtain!

Over at New Geography, Joel Kotkin writes about 10 cities best poised to do well post great recession. Interestingly Mungo-land (Raleigh-Durham) and Angus-topia (OKC) are on the list.

Here's what Joel says about the OKC:

During the Great Depression, it was Oklahomans who moved to California to escape the Dust Bowl. Now there are considerably more people moving from California to Oklahoma than the other way around....And Oklahoma City—which enjoys low unemployment as a result of its steadily growing energy and aerospace sectors—has been ranked among the best job markets for young people, ahead of Dallas, Seattle, and even New York (having Kevin Durant lead the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder for the foreseeable future can only improve the buzz).

Of course, none of the cities in our list competes right now with New York, Chicago, or L.A. in terms of art, culture, and urban amenities, which tend to get noticed by journalists and casual travelers. But once upon a time, all those great cities were also seen as cultural backwaters. And in the coming decades, as more people move in and open restaurants, museums, and sports arenas, who’s to say Oklahoma City can’t be Oz?

Who indeed, people, who indeed?

No Mungo, just don't have kids

In a similar vein to Mungo's post below, a new paper from the Center for Global Development (downloadable here) reckons that the most cost effective way to reduce carbon emissions in developing countries is to have there be less people in developing countries!

They don't quite put it like that; they say the policies of "family planning and female education" are the biggest bang per buck, but both common sense and a reading of the paper show that what these policies do to reduce emissions is reduce the number of people.

People, don't get me wrong; I'm fully in favor of female education for reasons completely unrelated to carbon emissions!

As far as family planning goes, most countries undergo an endogenous demographic transition as they get richer. I am not sure that posters and free condoms can significantly speed up that transition.

While I in no way wish to impugn the motives of the study, a policy of poor country population control as a method of reducing carbon emissions makes me very uncomfortable.

Homesick TSA Blues

KPC BFF Will Wilkinson writes a useful article on the idiot docility of the American public: the government says it needs to rub its hands on our tingly bits, so it must be necessary, line up, don't make trouble!

Some time ago, I tried to come up with the best explanation I could think of on the positive side: costly signals.

But that doesn't really explain our long term acceptance of this pointless abuse. Especially since a guy can get on a plane after his dad calls to warn authorities, and then all they want to do is "interview" him after the plane lands.

Here's one I don't get: I was waiting to pick up Tyler C., at the RDU airport. I was told I could not leave the car for even 30 seconds. I could wait in the parked car for three minutes, and then I had to circle the airport and come back. I did that three times. May I ask you: Why? There has never, ever been an attack on an airport, from the outside. Is the reasoning that there were some attacks during flights, flights imply airplanes, airplanes land at airports, and my car was parked at an airport? The drop-off lane where I was meeting Tyler was empty, no people around except me and the cop; no terrorist would pick that place for bomb attack. As we know, it is easy to drive a truck full of explosives to Times Square, or some other densely populated area, yet there is no security there at all. (Nor should there be, given the odds of an attack are still pretty much zero).

So why do the airport cops outside, and the TSA inside, make us jump and dance and obey? Because they can, folks. Because they can. And we all just say, "Please! Sir! May I have another!"

(Nod to @MsCourt)

Just Kill Yourself

Newsweek has advice about how to save the Earth.

Boiled down: Kill yourself, or at least live in a way that makes you wish you COULD kill yourself. Problem is those greenhouse gases when you fire that bullet into the roof of your mouth: bad for the environment.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Any Idiot Can Make Linear Projections...

And this particular idiot is making linear projections about chocolate prices.

(Nod to the LMM, who frightened me with the image of female choc-zombies stalking the earth in search of the their next meal of 70%+)

Don Boudreaux Comes Up Big....

I just love this article. I love it so.

Don B speaks da trut.

The Only "Conservative" In the last 30 years was....

And I have to second Angus' "Shrub=FAIL" post. Check this graph, of Debt as % of GDP:
(click for more bodacious image!)
We have had exactly ONE fiscally conservative prez in the last 30 years, and his name was...CLINTON. Sorry, Repubs: you all suck!

(Debt=publicly held debt + intergovernmental debt; no way do you get to ignore T-bonds that happen to be held by the Soc Sec Trust Fund. If SSTF gets to count the bond as an asset, then that is a big honking debt on the government balance sheet. And I got the pic by taking a Nat Post graph and making it a ppt slide, so I could add the notations)

Big 'Uns Eat FREE!

warning: "mild death may occur..."

Quite a restaurant.

(Nod to the Blonde, who would have to pay a LOT to eat at this restaurant, skinny little thing that she is!)

The Shrub is STILL full of it

It's good to know that some things never change.

Shrub has written a book and is out on a media tour promoting it. Among the strange notions the book contains is the argument that GW Bush was a fiscal conservative! His evidence is a chart showing that Federal spending as a % of GDP was lower during his Presidency that it was during Clinton's, Daddy B's, or even Reagan's.

FAIL!

Presidents do not inherit a blank slate on spending. They start where the previous administration left off. Here's a graph of Federal spending since 1980:

(click on pic for a more glorious image)

As can be seen, under Reagan spending fell by a couple percentage points, under Clinton it fell considerably more, but the Bush train only goes one direction: UP! To the tune of around 2.5 percentage points of GDP!

Paging President Shrub! Phone call for the Shrub!

28th Amendment?

Got this in an email. Interesting...

35 STATES FILE LAWSUIT

Governors of 35 states have filed suit against the Federal Government for imposing unlawful burdens upon them. It only takes 38 (of the 50) States to convene a Constitutional Convention. This will take less than thirty seconds to read. If you agree, please pass it on. This is an idea that we should address.

For too long we have been too complacent about the workings of Congress. Many citizens had no idea that members of Congress could retire with the same pay after only one term, that they specifically exempted themselves from many of the laws they have passed (such as being exempt from any fear of prosecution for sexual harassment) while ordinary citizens must live under those laws. The latest is to exempt themselves from the Healthcare Reform that passed... in all of its forms. Somehow, that doesn't seem logical. We do not have an elite that is above the law. I truly don't care if they are Democrat, Republican, Independent or whatever. The self-serving must stop.

If each person that receives this will forward it on to 20 people, in three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one proposal that really should be passed around.

Proposed 28th Amendment to the United States Constitution:
"Congress shall make no law that applies to the citizens of the United States that does not apply equally to the Senators and/or Representatives; and, Congress shall make no law that applies to the Senators and/or Representatives that does not apply equally to the citizens of the United States ."

Actors!

Actors need to learn how to stay grounded, apparently.

Poor guy. Does this happen a lot, to giraffes? I never thought of that.

(Nod to Anonyman)

The Edmund Fitzgerald

It was today, in 1975.

Outsourcing

I feel weird when I link to blogs far more popular than KPC. Most of our readers probably already follow Tyler and Interfluidity. But they both have excellent posts up about our current economic situation and the policy options we face. You people should read these posts so I am linking to them here.

Here's Tyler's post and a teaser:

Still, QEII may do some good. Money matters, even if we don't always understand how or why, and excessively tight money has never done market-oriented economics any favors. Think of QEII as a make-up for some earlier monetary policy mistakes. Some of the relevant alternatives include a trade war with China or direct government employment of the unemployed and with what endgame? QEII is not some terrifying burst of potential hyperinflation.

Here's Interfluidity's and a teaser:

But the thing is, human affairs are a morality play, and economics, if it is to be useful at all, must be an account of human affairs. I have my share of disagreements with both Krugman and DeLong, but on balance I view them as smart, well-meaning people who would do more good than harm if they had greater influence over policy. But they won’t, and they can’t, and they shouldn’t, if they exempt themselves from the moral fray. One of the stereotyped insults economists throw at one another is that a piece of analysis is “partial equilibrium”. The phrase is shorthand for coming to a conclusion based on assumptions that could not survive the circumstances under which the conclusion would obtain. I don’t want to single out Krugman and DeLong, but technocratic economists in general engage in partial equilibrium social science when they ignore moral concerns and the constraints “legitimacy” places on feasible policy.

I would add to the last sentence above that it's also problematic to ignore political constraints as well.

One tough Okie

Oklahoma State University student Kasey Cook was shot in the leg last night in Stillwater. Here is a news report. And here is the awesome, amazing, report from the OSU student newspaper.

And here is my favorite part from the second report:

"He (Cook) had blood running down his leg and he asked me if I just saw a guy running and I said 'Ya' and he was like 'He just shot me,'" Schram said. "I asked him if he needed to sit down and he said 'No, it didn't burn as bad as I thought it would' and I was like, 'Dude you just got shot and he sat down and made a joke and said 'At least it didn't hit my balls.'"

I know this guy is an OSU Cowboy but all I can think to say right now is Boomer Sooner!

Hat tip to Louisiana Keith

Cheeky QB

Pretty funny. Just walk through the D.

I wonder if the kid plays poker?

A more traditional version, where the QB takes the snap through the legs of the center.

Now, I thought a snap HAD to be between the legs to be legal, in high school and higher. But...no. Any continuous movement of the ball, including handing it to the QB, is legal.

Good One By Ken

Ken at Popehat speaks sensibly about some things where nonsense reigns.

The Krugman gambit

Paul seems to only have one card these days, but he does play it very, very well.

It's the "nothing is ever enough card" and he got it out again in Sunday's NY Times.

The way it works is this:

(A) Lobby for any and all expansionary policies.

(B) Then, when an expansionary policy get proposed or enacted, pitch a fit and say that it's way too small and will never work.

(C) When said policy doesn't work (which of course could well be because the policy is bogus) scream "I told you so" over and over at the top of your lungs.

Was the "problem" with the stimulus bill simply that it was too small as Paul claims? Or was it that a temporary burst of government spending no matter how large is not going to come close to curing an economy that is suffering from a severe real shock/wealth loss?

One thing that's for sure as a matter of simple logic is that the fact that Paul said "it's too small", doesn't prove at all that's why if failed. Yet people (and Paul) often act as if it does.

Now he's pulled the same gambit with QE II, a policy that's unlikely to "work" no matter what size is chosen.

Well played, sir. Kudos!

All Hail John Covil

For he is the winner of the KPC reader appreciation new tagline contest. His entry now sits astride the KPC masthead like a colossus.

John is also a blogger. You can check his blog here.

He will be receiving his custom designed, KPC-themed Starbucks gift card as soon as it is approved by the Starbucks censors!

Congratulations John and thanks to all our contestants and readers.

Buy More Better Cars, and Other Stuff

BHO writes an op-ed. (Okay, some ghost wrote it, but BHO read it and suggested some edits)

Here it is, in the state-sponsored mouthpiece of the administration...

He seems to believe, or at least he says he believes, that Chinese people didn't buy General Motors cars because of protectionism. I believe that that is not right.

Contest finalists

Here are the four finalists for the KPC tagline reader appreciation contest. These are actual verbatim entries from actual KPC readers!

"Business up front, quantitative easing in the rear"

"Fatter in real life than you imagined"

“Those are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” (Groucho Marx quote)

"Still looking for our copy of the social contract"

Comments are solicited while the judges deliberate.

Monday's Child is full of links

Guy writing book on pessimism. Has pinched nerve. Turns out it was a tumor. On Jon Stewart. (Nod to Angry Alex)

The Monster from Jekyll Island: It was Neanderbill! He was there! (This time, I mean; he went to the conference). And he got quoted in the NYTimes. I carpool with a famous person. You can tell other people you know me. (Nod to Anonyman)

Due Process: "Tenure" means you can't just fire them. Or so says the arbitrator at FSU.

New GOP Majorities say, "Hey States! We Gots yer budgets RIGHT HERE!"

Distance learning, at home. Recruit Chinese students, save high school? (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

California is the Lindsay Lohan of states...

Uncle Sam: Part Pusher, Part Preacher

The front page of today's NY Times sings a new verse to a familiar tune. The Federal government actively helps market extra fatty pizza (Uncle Sam the Cheese Pusher) while at the same time putting out publications warning people against eating pizza.

Just like when it subsidized the production of tobacco while running advertising campaigns against consuming it.

Just like how it limits the importation of sugar and subsidizes the production of corn so that kids grow up swimming in an post-natal amniotic fluid of high fructose corn syrup, while at the same time good old uncle sam leads the fight against childhood obesity and diabetes.

We pay for the pusher and we pay for the preacher and they are one in the same.

Self experimentation and unintended consequences

People, I am no spring chicken. But I am moderately active. I play tennis, practice a fairly active version of yoga, "do" Pilates, and take daily walks with my pack.

Both Mrs. Angus (more of a spring chicken than I) and I have been bothered by post workout soreness. She asked her doctor about it and he recommended milk proteins taken post-exercise.

So she did some research and we've been using a product called "Muscle Milk".

AND IT WORKS!

This stuff is so awesome. I feel much better the day after exercising and can be more active more often.

However it is also highly caloric, so in spite of increased activity, I am gaining weight. I am up to 140 pounds, which is the heaviest I've ever been.

Now maybe the therapeutic value of Muscle Milk is mainly as a placebo; that's fine with me, I'll take help any way I can get it. But the weight gain part is very real.

There is a "lite" version of the product but (a) it's not very lite and (b) it contains less of the treatment (i.e. less milk proteins).

I guess I'll keep using it until I either get too big to do yoga or Mrs. Angus threatens to dump me.

Eric Posner on Roman Constitution

Political Economy of the Roman Constitution, by Eric Posner

Nod to Angry Alex

The best new song I've heard in quite a while

It's called "knockout" and it's by Air Waves (aka Nicole Schneit). I don't know why, but it reminds be of the late, great Mark Linkous (Sparklehorse).

Here is Air Waves' myspace page with more songs.

Where's the FDA when you really need them?

Finally a reason to go to a Celtics game!

How Many?

Optimal number of wives: <=1. Cedric the Entertainer shows why:

Bud Light Cedric the..
Watch the ad...

But there's a new "reality" show, perhaps patterned after "Big Love" fictional success. (Success is real, story is fiction).

Nod to Angry Alex...

UPDATE: Yes, of course the optimal number of husbands is zero, for a woman. Thank goodness the LMM failed to optimize, and accepted me.

K-Olbermann Favors Dems over Repubs! Who Knew?

This is garbage. You can watch Olbermann, or not watch him. But why in the world should he be prevented from making small, fully disclosed contributions well within the law? MSNBC donates millions of dollars in free air time to shill for Dems, just as Fox donates tens of millions of dollars in free air time for Repubs.

As Angus and I might have said in college....why can't we just all get a baung?

K-Wine on T-Cow

K-wine over at IPE@UNC does a nice job of summarizing the Cowen talk yesterday. Here is his post.

One nice touch was that Kindred tweeted about the talk, during the talk, and got a question tweeted back. He asked it, and the answer was interesting. How 2010 of you, Kindred!

Oklahoma is OK!

Some pix from my visit to OK for the KPC Summit meeting.
First, U of OK Prez David Boren wants to be sure he is not forgotten, even before he is gone. So he claimed a prime niche for his little statue (circled) on the admin building. Beautiful building, though.

Then, the main library reading room. This pic doesn't do it justice. It's breathtaking, "prairie Gothic."

Very nice campus, terrific little "college town" strip of restaurants and bars within easy walking distance. Great place.

Tagline contest update

People, we've received 10s of entries, many of them excellent. We'll accept entries through the weekend, with a winner announced on Monday. I have designed and ordered a custom Starbucks gift card that goes to the winner.

Thanks again and keep 'em coming!

November 5th

In honor of Guy's day, the speech from V for Vendetta.

The best column I've read this week

Jeffrey Goldberg chronicles his battles with the "dick-measuring device".

You really must read the whole thing, but here is a teaser:

"Yes, but starting tomorrow, we're going to start searching your crotchal area" -- this is the word he used, "crotchal" -- and you're not going to like it."

"What am I not going to like?" I asked.

"We have to search up your thighs and between your legs until we meet resistance," he explained.

"Resistance?" I asked.

"Your testicles," he explained.

'That's funny," I said, "because 'The Resistance' is the actual name I've given to my testicles."

Finally the TSA has done something useful; provided fodder for an awesome article.

Big Doings

September and October were the highest traffic months in KPC history, so Mungo and I would like to thank the KPC nation for their patronage.

As you know we have a rotating tagline below our nameplate (currently contributed by Mr. F. Zappa), but now we want you to choose / create our new tagline!

That's right, it's our first ever "tag KPC" contest.*

Winner gets immortalized on our masthead along with an awesome, custom KPC gift card from Starbucks (really!). Send your entries via Twitter, Facebook, or email to Angus (my email is available through my Blogger profile page), and thanks again to all of you.

*KPC employees and relatives of employees are ineligible. The decision of the judges will be final. Void where prohibited.

Obama = Keynesian

I had heard about this, but had not actually seen it.


And then yesterday @kohenari got all pissy on Twitter about how the political left is not anti-intellectual. Maybe, but some of you people sure are dumb, Ari. Also, check the guy in the Hitler outfit. Nice.

(Nod to Angry Alex)

Many Analysts, All of Them Wrong

A number of us opined about what happened in NC in the election.

But I don't buy the explanation given by my colleagues. The fact is that 7 out of 8 incumbent Dems at the US House level won their races. But there was huge turnover in the state house and senate races, AND Richard Burr won reelection by a country mile.

So how do you get an explanation that says national swing, huge Republican tide, corrupt state legislature....except for pretty much all the Democratic members of Congress won, most of them by 5% or more.

Doesn't make sense. I think my colleagues should just admit they have no freakin' clue, which is what I did. Because my ego strong, like bull, can admit when wrong, predict better next time, that sort of thing...

In Counting There Is Strength

Cool. The Dems still control the state apparatus here in NC, and they are going to try to steal the Ethridge seat. And who's to stop them? After all, in counting there is strength...
(Click for more bodacious image)
It will be Al Franken "winning" Wisconsin in 2008 all over again.

D-Zet Rulz!

David Zetland, after 40 months in the wilderness (longer, actually) finally crosses the Public Choice Jordan and reaches the promised land.

Well done, lad! It's a pleasure to work with you!

No habla Sharia

I will sleep much easier now knowing that my fellow Okies have seen fit to amend our state constitution to (1) make English the official state language, and (2) outlaw the practice of Sharia law inside our borders.

Let this message serve as fair warning to all you Spanish-speaking Taliban: Get the hell out and stay the hell out!

The Culture that is Singapore

The Boston Globe breaks it down for us:

"More than 80% of Singapore's population lives in public housing, in buildings designed to government specifications. And Singapore's government ensures that every apartment building mirrors the country's ethnic mix, with Chinese, Malays, and Indians living as neighbors in proportion to their share of the population - 77%, 14%, and 8% respectively."

Lets see here, Singapore's population is around 5 million, so 80% of that is 4 million. Shall we assume 1000 persons per building? So 4,000 government owned, government designed buildings each with 770 Chinese, 140 Malays and 80 Indians (somehow I lost 10 people!)?

That's just plain crazy, innit? Keep it in mind the next time you hear someone comparing some other country unfavorably to Singapore. The Singapore model has a lot of unsavory trappings.

Culture and Humor: Guest Post by Richard Fulmer

A guest post....

Alas, Poor Yorick: The Jester in the Dock
by Richard W. Fulmer

In his short but thought provoking book, Culture Counts: Faith and Feeling in a World Besieged, British philosopher Roger Scruton offers a critique of multiculturalism. He begins his analysis by asserting that a culture is largely a bundle of judgments – subjective beliefs about what is beautiful, what is art, what is appropriate or inappropriate, and what is or is not funny. Scruton goes on to explore the value of such cultural judgments by examining laughter.
To illustrate his arguments, I offer a thought experiment. First, imagine someone attempting to amuse his friends with the old “Why did the chicken cross the road?” riddle. Very likely the attempt will fall flat, and the stale punch line will not elicit even a groan.

Now suppose that we give the riddle a twist, answering it as a person from history might. For example, Adam Smith: “It was moved as if by an invisible hand.” Thomas Jefferson: “It was in the course of chicken events.” Sigmund Freud: “The chicken witnessed the sex act as an egg.” Likely, the revised versions will receive more positive responses.

Finally, let’s change the riddle again, this time replacing the word “chicken” with a derogatory epithet for a member of an ethnic, religious, or racial minority, and basing the punch line on a negative stereotype of the targeted group. What response could the joke teller expect? Well, if he were a participant in a Ku Klux Klan rally, the reaction might be quite positive. On the other hand, if he were a Harvard professor regaling his peers in the faculty lounge, the response might very well be shocked silence, frozen faces, and demands for his resignation. (I base the latter prediction on the response Larry Summers received for uttering - not a politically incorrect joke - but a politically incorrect fact, namely that that men tend to do better on standardized math tests than do women.)

Why should these three sets of jokes fare so differently? If we believe, as multiculturalism demands, that all cultures are equally valid, the response to each joke should be precisely the same. Each should be greeted with appreciative laughter based on the sympathetic understanding that the teller is trying to entertain us with a joke that is, according to his culture, amusing. One cannot react negatively without insinuating that he judges his own culture superior to that of the teller.
Yet the Harvard professors’ predicted response, if accurate, would seem to suggest that they do consider the Harvard culture to be superior to the Klan’s. This, despite the fact that a majority of the Harvard faculty almost certainly believes in multiculturalism’s fundamental tenet that all cultures are created equal. Their belief, however, would not stop them from attempting to ruin a fellow faculty member’s career for offending their own subjective cultural judgments (as it did not stop them in Larry Summers’ case).

In defense of Harvard professors, might we believe it possible that there may actually be objective standards by which jokes can be judged? Might we muster the courage to assert that a joke that demeans others is objectively inferior to one that merely amuses? Having conceded so much, might we even go so far as to venture that a culture based on love of knowledge and wisdom is superior to one based on hatred and coercive repression of minorities?

I only pose these as questions, of course, lest I be thought judgmental....

A Second Stimulus?

The end of a bromance

My favorite basketball player for a long time was Shaquille O'Neil. Then I read this blogpost (which I got from Shaq's twitter account) on "10 Fun Facts about Shaquille."

Consider #4: "My best NBA moment was scoring 61 points in a game against the LA Clippers."

This from a man with 3 rings and 2 finals MVPs? Really? Going Barry Switzer on the Clips is the highlight of your career? Not winning a title in Miami after getting run out of LA?

It also appears that one of us does not know what Top Ramen is.

Midterm Election Rock

Midterm Elections: Daily Show Rock

Problem: Your vote matters even LESS in Prez elections.

Still, pretty good stuff....

(Nod and much love to Dan Lee, at Mich State U)

Do Three Rights Make a Left?

KPC friend Shirley R writes from cold Rhode Island, on voting day:

Well up and dressed. waiting for more light to go on my way to vote. Middle school, 3 rights to get there and a right to get home. Made for me.

Um...what? Then I remembered: Shirley does NOT like to turn left.

Fortunately, the "three rights" maneuver, going the long way around the block, got her safely to the voting place. Thirty minutes later, this update:

That was easy and quick. All rights get me there and home... It was [quite] cold!

Get out there and vote, people, or else get out there and gloat about NOT voting! Either way, it's a big day...

Der Spiegel article on US

Der Spiegel article on the demise of the US.

I have to admit, I just don't get it. So let's play the grand game...

Comments?

(Nod to the amazing Mr. Fox)

'lection day

Hello people. Election days always make me melancholy. People get so worked up and excited about who is going to "take power" and "govern us". People get so worked up about ballot initiatives telling other people what they can and cannot do.

I just hang out, keep a low profile, and hope for some anarchy.

So please consider (a) voting Libertarian, or Green or some other alternative, (b) going the creative write-in route, (c) spoiling your ballot (I absolutely LOVE that term), or (d) not voting at all.

Links

Will Supreme Court Grant Cert in Manhattan Eminent Domain Case? (Story) (Nod to J-Wo)

What did the Porkulus actually "multiply"? (Story) (Nod to Angry Alex)

The Dems think no one appreciates them. The Dems are right. (Story) (Again, thx to Angry Alex)

So you think the little fishies are cooperating? Not so much... It's actually a straightforward PD problem: If all the little fish would scatter at the same moment, most would escape, because there are so many and the predators are few. But if I expect YOU to take off, I should stay in the ball. One or two fish trying to escape will be caught. And if I expect you to stay in the ball...I should STILL stay in the ball.
(Nod to E-New)

Okies out in front of the curve

From the LA Times:

As the country grapples with its worst economic downturn in decades and persistent unemployment, voters in Oklahoma next week will take up another issue — whether they should pass a constitutional amendment outlawing Sharia, or Islamic law.

Supporters of the initiative acknowledge that they do not know of a single case of Sharia being used in Oklahoma, which has only 15,000 Muslims.

"Oklahoma does not have that problem yet," said Republican state Rep. Rex Duncan, the author of the ballot measure, who says supporters in more than a dozen states are ready to place similar initiatives before voters in 2012. "But why wait until it's in the courts?"

Are my fellow Okies so unconfident in the power of their religions that they foresee an imminent Islamic takeover? Will Sooner football games soon be stopped for mass prayers at the appointed hours? Will Van's Pig Stand shutter its succulent doors forever?

Or is the Oklahoma State Legislature just bats*&#t crazy?

DING-DING-DING! We have a winner!

"Nudge" and the university

The University of Missouri-KC has an *awesome* idea for getting more candidates for University committee slots: Put everyone on electronic ballots unless they go on line and opt out!

Really!

"According to Daniel P. Hopkins, an associate professor of geosciences and the previous chairman, "The faculty is extremely busy and stressed," and unwilling to spend time on administrative duties like deciding each major's academic requirements and reviewing the college's budget. "The idea that someone should be asked to run for an office that they don't want is, on the face of it, crazy," he says, but it was the only way to fill the posts.

Since 2009, faculty members have been expected to log on to see which positions they were eligible for and, if they chose, to remove their names from consideration. Professors who logged on to the Web site but did not remove their names were assumed to be willing to serve. Those who did not log on at all were also listed, but voters were warned that the candidates' willingness to serve was uncertain."

Well, if it's the only way, then I guess it's OK!

Goolsbee P'wnd

The other side of the white board: Dr. Goolsbee, call your office.


(Nod to Angry Alex)

Joshua Bell, Free and Clear

An interesting story. And the Snopes commentary is also interesting.

For my own part, I know I can tell the difference between a $3 bottle of wine and a $10 bottle of wine, but I have very little chance of distinguishing a $15 bottle of wine from a $70 bottle of wine.

And I usually stop to listen to musicians in the subway, and leave a buck. Perhaps because I can't tell the difference.

(Nod to the LMM)

The Culture that is France

Tyler says: "A Korean man over 75 is more likely to be working than a Frenchman in his early 60s."

Tea Party Article, and Stewart/Colbert Article

My man Sheldon called, and we had a nice talk. And then he wrote it up in the newspaper...

And then my man David called, and we had a nice talk. And then he wrote it up in his newspaper chain, McClatchy.

You want to know anything, just ask. We can have a nice talk!

Incentives in universities

Nick Rowe has a great post on the woes of the central planner in university settings.

You should definitely read the whole thing, but here's my favorite bit:

"It's not enough (in some cases) to put the carrot in front of the donkey. You have to point to the carrot, tell the donkey it is a carrot, and that he can eat it. And work out marginal revenue and marginal cost for the donkey too. And repeat this several times".

One interesting take on university incentives comes from the school where Mrs. Angus and I worked in Mexico City, CIDE.

Everyone started with the same (fairly low) base salary and the requirement to teach one class. There were then extra payments for teaching more classes (subject to demand). There were also payments based on one's overall academic reputation from SNI which came in three levels if you qualified. They also paid piecework on articles. A payment for each working paper and then an additional payment for publication on a scale related to the quality of the journal. Finally there were semi-annual productivity bonuses that could be as large as two months base salary.

I found this to be a great system. We got a ton of work done there.

My Dinner with Angus (and the Lovely Ms. Angus)

So Angus put together a first rate supper here at House d'Angus. Afterwards, the sitting / tea drinking / storytelling began.

Angus and I, affected by the decaf tea no doubt, began to bare our innermost souls. Each of us confessed our deepest, most intimate fear, which interestingly happen to be identical.

Leeches.

Ticks we can deal with, broken bones, fire, all fine. But no freakin' leeches, please. Gives us nightmares.

So...Ms. Angus immediately tells a story of a missionary she had heard about, in Africa. A large leech apparently crawled onto him.

And into his eye.

It latched, and managed to get to the back of his eye. "Like it was going to go into his brain," she said.

Angus and I are staring at her. We have bared our manly vulnerabilities, and she is going to go THERE?

Immersed in her story, she continued: "They had to pour hot sauce into his eye. Hot pepper sauce. He was screaming and thrashing around, and they had to tie him down. They kept putting more pepper sauce into his eye, and he was screaming. But they were afraid the leech would go into his brain."

Angus and I are holding onto each other and making little whimpering sounds.

She goes on. "Finally, the leech couldn't stand it, and the pepper sauce was burning it. So it came out." Seeing us staring at her, she said, "What? What did I say? Did I mention it was going to go into his brain?"

I am going to dream me some tremulous dreams, I'm afraid. Ms. Angus won this round.

He came, he saw, he conquered!

Mungo ruled the Sooner nation last night. Thanks to SIAS for sponsoring this event and to everyone who came out. It was informative, provocative and entertaining.

KPC Summit!

So, I am visiting at House d'Angus, and got to see the early morning walk wear of the lovely Ms. Angus (to be fair, it was COLD this morn, so she had every reason to wear gloves). We walked Mr. Tootie, and then Angus and I headed to the office.

O Daily had this article about my talk last night. (I already wrote them about the misspelling in the title!)

Voters may be dumb, but they are smarter than Taegan Goddard

On his Political Wire, Goddard says:

A Bloomberg National Poll finds that by a two-to-one margin, likely voters in the midterm elections think taxes have gone up, the economy has shrunk, and the billions lent to banks as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program won't be recovered.

The facts: The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans, has overseen an economy that has grown for the past four quarters and expects to make a profit on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to rescue Wall Street banks.

Umm, Taegs old pal, the economy HAS shrunk! real GDP peaked in the 4th quarter of 2007 and we have not yet reached that level. Now the economy is not still shrinking, but that's a different story.

While I'm at it, taxes HAVE gone up. Our deficit has exploded and (repeat after me cheese lovers) DEFICITS ARE FUTURE TAXES!

Finally, while banks are paying back TARP money with interest, taxpayers are losing billions on the TARP funds that were used to bail out GM.

I would score this one for the voters!

Does it matter if the Republicans take the House?

Some see a zombie apocalypse. I don't see much really.

First, the "repeal Obamacare" idea is simply nuts. The Repubs won't have anything near a veto proof majority and the Dems in the Senate, even if the Repubs take the Senate, can just act like the current minority party in the Senate is acting.

Second, it's true that "progressive" legislation will be harder to pass. But it seems that it was already next to impossible to pass anyway. Cap & Trade is already dead, card check already dead, more stimulus, already dead. I don't see any big change here.

Third, it's true that there will be more support for DADT and the wars and our brutal immigration policy, but again, the current administration was already vigorously prosecuting these and other horrible policies.

Finally, I do think there will be a change in the mix of tools used to achieve deficit reduction, with (and I admit this may be more of a hope than a reality) more emphasis on spending cuts and less on tax increases. In any event, I think a Republican House makes deficit reduction at least a little bit more likely.

PS: Am I the only one who'd like to see Christine O'Donnell in the Senate? Just for the Caligula's horse kind of vibe it would have?

Tonight's the Night

Bruce Berry and Mungowitz were/are both working men, and while Bruce is gone, you can see Mungo tonight at 7:00 at OU (181 Hester Hall)!

Be sure to introduce yourself to he or I as a KPC reader!

Here's the ad one more time, just because it's so cool:

Observations from the Thunder's opening night

Derrick Rose really likes to shoot the basketball (31 shots in 31 minutes).

Thabo Sefolosha is a ferocious defender.

The Thunder really miss Nick Collison. He's their "glue" guy, especially on interior defense.

"DJ Boom" is not actually a DJ at all!

Thunder still are not good at halftime entertainment.

Wayne Coyne is extremely skinny.

I am ready for the Daequan Cook era to be over.

Kyle Korver's new teammates don't seem to like him very much.


Thunder won the game by finally playing some good D in the last half of the fourth quarter, which featured some spectacular dunks by Durant and Westbrook. Right now though, they don't look like a better team than last year.

Do (ex) leaders matter? Another data point

There is a decent sized literature in economics, finance and political science that attempts to gauge the impact of politicians by what happens in markets in reaction to their unexpected deaths.

Well, Nestor "el penguino" Kirchner, the once and perhaps future president of Argentina died suddenly yesterday. However, the Argentine stock market was closed for the national census (I am not making this up), so any test of market reactions to his death won't be totally clean.

Bloomberg reports that Argentine stocks trading in the US "surged the most since 2008". Hard to say exactly what that means though. They also report that Argentine sovereign risk fell by half a percentage point.

Nestor, who Boz nominates as one of the greatest of all the Argentine presidents, was married to the current president and was planning to run again in next year's presidential election.

Some people will mourn, others reflect on his legacy, but somewhere, someone is getting ready to run an event study!

Washaway Beach

This may be a hoax, I admit.

But it's a story about Washaway Beach, in Washington state.

In which a guy being interviewed says, quoting now:

“When you buy a place at Washaway Beach, you hope it’s there forever...”

(Nod to Angry Alex)

So You Want to Be a Political Scientist?

So You Want to Be a Political Scientist?

Video

nod to @kohenari

Surviving Halloween

Our friends at Popehat have produced a list of 25 tips to help you stay alive in "a world teeming with serial killers, aliens that aren’t interested in bringing peace to mankind, backwoods cannibals, and corpses that hunger for the flesh of the living".

My favorite is #19.

...and when I die, I'll be Sooner dead!

My university's fight song has some very strange words.

As did Jeffrey Landregan on the occasion of his execution by the State of Arizona:

"Well, I'd like to say thank you to my family for being here, and all of my friends. Boomer Sooner."

By way of context, Jeffrey got into trouble in AZ after escaping from prison in OK.

The scariest phrase I read this morning

"We know how monetary policy works"

--James Bullard, President, St. Louis Fed

Things that make my life more difficult than it could be

Dems at Defcon 1

Interesting article (read the update, too!).

The gist is that most early voters are registered Dems, which I have heard also, and thought strange. BUT.... Dem Party internal polls show that these early voting "Dems" are overwhelmingly voting Republican, in some cases nearly straight ticket Republican.

Hence, DemCon 1.

(Nod to the Blonde)

El Mercurio article

My interview with Carolina, my coffee buddy from Santiago.

On the election in the U.S....

On the leftiness of Obama redux

To summarize where we are, I've come to realize that a lot of Obama's foreign and social policies are both (a) wrong and (b) conservative.

Since then I've been dealing with a lot of "epistemic closure" from the left as they argue that there is no evidence at all of Obama being left or liberal. I presented a lighthearted list, the first 6 of which I think are genuine evidence.

In an attempt to bring some at least semi-objective data to bear on the issue, I propose that his voting record as a Senator is relevant for judging his ideological bent (i.e. his inner leftiness).

Here is some information on that record:

The National Journal magazine, in its annual vote rating, said Obama moved left last year to the "most liberal senator" rating "after ranking as the 16th and 10th most-liberal during his first two years in the Senate."

Americans for Democratic Action, the liberal activist group, and the American Conservative Union, the conservative activist group, also rate Congress members on their votes. Their findings describe Obama as one of, but not the most liberal U.S. senator.

The ADA gave Obama a 75 percent liberal score in 2007, 95 percent in 2006 and 100 percent in 2005. Other Democratic senators received 100 percent during those years. David Card, ADA communications director, said Obama's score was lower last year because he missed certain votes.

Obama has a lifetime ADA average of 90 percent. Other senators - such as Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Ted Kennedy and others - have higher lifetime ADA ratings. Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate in 2004, was ranked as the most liberal senator by the National Journal in 2003.

"He is one of the most liberal senators," Card said, referring to Obama.

The ACU, which customarily places conservative Republicans on the top of its list and liberal Democrats at the bottom, has given Obama a lifetime ranking of just 7.67, according to the figures on the group's Web site.

It says Obama scored 8 percent in 2005, 8 percent in 2006 and 7 percent in 2007. Other Democratic senators in the ACU rankings have had lower yearly and lifetime scores, the site shows.

"He's one of the most liberal," said Larry Hart, the ACU director of government relations.

What do econ bloggers think about government and the economy

Every quarter the Kaufman foundation polls a group of "leading economics bloggers" (which means, not Angus!) on a bunch of questions.

The one I found most interesting was "Is the federal government too involved in the U.S. economy?"

63% said yes! This is on page 5 of the report linked above.

Page 11 of the report reveals that only 9% of the respondents are registered Republicans.

***update*** the above sentence should say only 9% identified themselves as registered Republicans!

The whole report is (still) well worth reading.

Small Business Myth

Veronique dR does a nice of abusing a silly myth.

Small businesses do create the most jobs. And destroy. It's like saying I have lost 600 pounds in the last year; true. But I have gained 860 pounds, and I still weigh 260. You need to worry about the NET change.

And government policies not only do not help small business produce more jobs, but those policies actually hurt. Veronique does a nice job of making it understandable.

Fisk, Fisk, Fisk

P-Kroog is well beyond self-caricature. He has become the Michael Jackson of economists. You want to look away, but you. just. can't.

Nod to Angry Alex

Political Quiz

A version of "Jay-walking" on the U of Colorado campus.

Many fine moments.

But my favorite is when they ask one kid, "How many judges on the US Supreme Court?"

Silence. Then a hint: "It's an odd number!"

Kid responds: "Oh, eighteen." We are so screwed.

(Nod to Anonyman, who visited Chez Mungowitz with the lovely Ms. Anon this past weekend. Very nice time)

Top 10 signs Obama is a lefty

In an earlier post, I became aware that our president, at least on foreign policy and many social issues actually is acting in quite a conservative manner. Unfortunately, he is also totally wrong on these issues just as the previous "conservative" administration was.

So I started to wonder exactly why I had the perception that Obama was "pretty far left".

Hence this Top 10 signs Obama is a lefty list:

10. His incessant pandering to unions

9. His child-like love for high speed rail

8. His pushing for subsidies for solar, wind, & ethanol (i.e. uneconomic boondoggles).

7. His refusal to understand that electric cars actually burn coal in many parts of the country!

6. His firm belief that a small group of experts can competently run the economy

5. The amazing growth in the Federal budget under his watch

4. His habit of flip-flopping like a boated marlin

3. His inability to consider issues of moral hazard or unintended consequences in policymaking

2. His belief that anyone who disagrees with him is stupid or evil or both

1. His overall superior, moralistic, and condescending attitude

Macro and the non-economist

After playing tennis with a non-economist friend yesterday, he asked me how can macro have two completely different schools of thought which seem to differ even on the basics. I told him that, at the op-ed level, macro had a lot of ideology and politics in it and there were more than two schools of thought!

He then asked how it could be the case that when people look at the same data, they don't arrive at the anything near the same conclusion. He said that it was irritating and frustrating to see constant disagreement by economists over macro issues

I told him two things.

First, there isn't really that much data! Since world war two we are working on what, our 10th business cycle?

Second, macro is largely a non-experimental science thus causation was a b*&#ch to figure out and counterfactuals were in short supply.

I also told him that op-ed level macro wasn't generally serious academic macro (though some of it is).

And he asked me what serious academic macro had done vis a vis predicting the meltdown.

I told him, "very little".

I then told him macro forecasters are like weatherpeople, the worse we do and the worse things get, the more they are in demand. I don't think he was too impressed.

I don't fault modern macro for not predicting the financial meltdown; to me thats a borderline silly complaint.

I do think though that op-ed level macro is often not doing the profession any favors in its quest to be viewed as a science.

All We Are Saying....

...is give "No Prez" a chance!

one reality, many interpretations?

The progressive drumbeat that the Dems are in trouble because Obama was too conservative continues.

Mark Thoma gives a clear articulation of the view:

"I don't know if the centrist, bipartisan seeking, compromising Obama we have seen to date can actually embrace an encompassing vision. He seems afraid to be a Democrat.."

It's hard for me to understand this sentence coming from a person (i.e. Mark) who I like and respect. From my perspective, Obama is pretty far left and uncompromising.

So let me invoke Robin Hanson and try to list things Obama has done that qualify as evidence for Mark's view.

I would say on economic policy the closest thing to centrist & compromising that he's done is appoint Summers and Geithner.

Can you count not pushing for single payer as bipartisan seeking or compromising?

Then there's Guantanamo, renditions, wiretaps, and the like. I view the continuation of these policies as wrong, but are they being continued as a compromise? Or out of bipartisanship?

Oh and then there are the wars. Do they count?

Oh my, there's also no action on immigration reform and the monstrosity that is DADT.

Holy Crap! Maybe Mark has a point.

I see Obama as the worst possible policy mix. Wrong on economic issues, wrong on foreign policy and wrong on social issues too. A Dem should at least get the social issues right!

That Robin H. sure is a smart fellow.

The Froggy apocalypse continues

More rolling strikes and national days of action are planned as the country waits for its Senate to vote on the bill to raise the retirement age by two years.

Let's get a message from the French street:

"I am 44 and I don't want to work until I am 62 or 67," teacher Odile Jaquet told the Associated Press news agency. "I am still young: I still have to work for another 18 years, and in my industry, I don't think that I will be able to work much longer."

Some comments:

First, let me point out to Odile that by saving and investing, one can build one's own (this would be worded less awkwardly if I had any idea what gender the name Odile connotes) financial assets and choose one's own retirement age. Waiting for the state's permission is not the only possible option. I don't want to work until I'm 67 either and have taken a series of steps to try and insure that I won't have to, whatever Uncle Sam may do to his official "retirement age".

Second, being a 52 year old teacher, I wonder what it is about our industry that would cause a 44 year old teacher to say "I don't think I will be able to work much longer". Maybe Odile just got done grading a bunch of mid-terms, that often makes me think the end is near.

Third, is this action being phased in over time or does it just hit everyone at once? If I was 59.5 and planning to retire, I'd be seriously pissed. At age 44, Odile still has a chance to make financial decisions that would allow retirement at 60 instead of 62 (or 65 instead of 67).

Fourth, I would reckon that this small raising of the retirement age is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the eventual retrenchment of the French welfare state. I wonder what kind of protests will occur when the big stuff starts to come down?

Quotes entirely relevant for this election season

"Politics is a ridiculous profession populated by ridiculous people. Maybe if we elect increasingly clownish candidates, the public will eventually come to realize this, and finally realize that it’s probably not a good idea to put larger and larger portions of our lives and livelihoods in the hands of people who have achieved success in a field that rewards character traits you spend your entire tenure as a parent trying to teach out of your kids."

-Radley Balko

more here.

Stealing From the Children

A nice synthesis by Dr. Karlson.

.

Senator Boxer: "I worked SO hard..."

Heh.

Call Me Madam Joe from RightChange on Vimeo.

And, yes, it did really happen.

.

quotes entirely relevant for explaining why I live in Oklahoma

"You can get 100 wings here for less than 100 bucks, Good deal, huh?"

-Kevin Durant

more here.

Phone call for Mikhail Prokhorov!

(click the pic for a more glorious image)

more here.

Take These Words, and Make a Title

So, can you take these words, and make the title of an actual article?

Seven Inch Rim Jobs

Is this the title you came up with? Here?

Nod to Angry Alex.

JoPa is on the right track

American football has a big problem. The accumulation of huge hits seems to be causing severe neurological problems. The NFL has responded by adopting a more strict concussion protocol and now looks to be adopting or enforcing more rules against helmet-to-helmet contact.

NCAA legend Joe Paterno says that the league should remove the face mask from the helmet.

I say they should remove the entire helmet!

Really. You can't have helmet to helmet hits without a helmet! Maybe receivers and quarterbacks get helmets but no one else does.

It is not a huge stretch to argue that better helmets make for more vicious hitting and more injuries.

Maybe, a la Gordon Tullock, backs and receivers could wear a headband of metal spikes while defensive players go bareheaded.

If football doesn't solve this problem, it may not exist in anything like its current form in another 20 years.

Then poor Oklahoma won't be first in anything!

Quotes entirely relevant for these troubled times

"The pet-wheelchair industry is one manufacturing niche the U.S. still dominates"

--Timothy Aeppel, WSJ

Politics and Baby Mamas

Mothers are somewhat more conservative than women overall. Does becoming a mother change a woman's political attitudes? Or do relatively more conservative women become mothers at a higher rate?

Soccer Moms, Hockey Moms and the Question of “Transformative” Motherhood

Jill Greenlee, Politics & Gender, September 2010, Pages 405-431

Abstract: From Dwight Eisenhower to John McCain, presidential candidates have appealed to female voters by highlighting motherhood in their campaigns. The most recent example of this has been the “hockey mom” trope introduced by the first hockey mom to earn a slot on the GOP presidential ticket, Governor Sarah Palin. These appeals, while motivated by political gamesmanship, imply that mothers see the political world a bit differently from other women. They suggest that women with children have different political priorities and concerns and, at times, different positions on political issues. This article takes this proposition seriously, and asks the question: Does becoming a mother have a transformative effect on women's political attitudes? Using longitudinal data from the four-wave 1965–97 Political Socialization Panel Study, I track the movement of women's political attitudes on partisan identification, ideological identification, and policy issues. I find that the effects of motherhood on women's political attitudes, while not uniform in nature, do push some women to adopt more conservative political attitudes. Thus, these results suggest that while motherhood does not transform women's political attitudes, for some women motherhood does promote interesting attitudinal shifts.

Nod to Kevin Lewis...

In the Land of Real Sucking, Those Who Only Kind of Suck Will Win

Let's not forget, the Republicans do in fact suck. But they only kind of suck, so they will win big in November.

Nod to Angry ALex

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Tyler's a comin'!

On the "post your poster" meme, here is the one I did for Tyler Cowen's visit in two weeks....
Not near as pretty as the one Angus had done for my visit to OU, but that's because Angus wisely avoided using MY photograph.

Some Constitutional Links

10th Amendment Case: what should the feds do? (Nod to Neanderbill)

Miss O'Donnell is powned, by asking what she thinks is a "gotcha" question: "Where is this 'separation of church and state' in the Constitution?" Remember, she was a "Constitutional Scholar" at Claremont. I was open-mouthed watching the video. This debate was at a LAW SCHOOL. That's why the laughter. O'Donnell actually looks around and grins, certain that they are laughing at her clever gotcha question. (Nod to Anonyman)

UPDATE: From the National Review..... And, sorry Ms. Trinko, but that is a fail. There are two parts to the guarantee of the separation of church and state in the 1st Amendment. The first is the restriction on establishment. The second is the restriction on free exercise. BOTH of those together, where the government cannot choose one sect, and ALSO cannot restrict what individuals practice, together constitute the separation of church and state. So, the defense that "free exercise" somehow requires the teaching of intelligent design in schools is just nonsense. It DOES mean that the state cannot prevent it from being taught in church, and that's all. Ms. O'Donnell is an idiot, but at least she is an idiot in the first instance. Ms. Trinko, in defending this nonsense, is a derivative idiot in the second instance.

Federal judge hears case on Obamacare. This has already gone further than I expected.

This is what yesterday was like for me

Foot in mouth disease, ecclesiastical edition

Regarding AIDS, the head of the Catholic church in Belgium recently said:

"I would not at all think in such terms. I do not see this illness as a punishment, at most a sort of inherent justice, a bit like how we are presented with the bill for what we do to the environment."

Regarding Gentiles/Goyim (aka non-Jews) the head of Shas’s Council of Torah Sages and a senior Sephardi adjudicator recently said:

"Goyim were born only to serve us. Without that, they have no place in the world – only to serve the People of Israel,”

“Why are gentiles needed? They will work, they will plow, they will reap. We will sit like an effendi and eat.

That is why gentiles were created,”

Thank you gentlemen, for clearing up a few mysteries for us.