I have said several times Obama will win in 2012. (After I said in March 2008 that he was "unelectable," so ignore whatever I say).
But now a man with an actual MODEL (sort of) has called it for BHO.
Meet Prof. Lichtman...
(Nod to Anonyman)
11 comments:
I say no chance unless there is a big event to make the folks rally round the pres. Rick Perry is the guy if not IMO.
Obama will win or not its it depends on his past and present working in the filed of industrial and health development related work.
With wishes: hemorrhoids treatment
Nice post is that. The political Victories of Obama and any leader's depends on the matter of his policies which implements on industry and health related systems's development. There are lot of diseases some are common as nail fungus which needs to treat earlier.
I'm a little baffled by Lichtman's 'scandal-free'. There have been some events - the gun running, the money to Solyndra and its bankruptcy, and Arne Duncan making shit up about the dreadful Texas schools - which would seem 'scandal' to me. We'll see if they have resonance by the time of the election. They're not Teapot Dome, but they're not nothing, either. dave.s.
"I don’t see how Obama can lose", says Lichtman.
Allow me to assist: "by failing to carry states adding up to a majority in the electoral college". That's how.
The fresh, young, unknown Obama that drew young people and non-voters with his message of hope and change turned out to be a weak leader and a liar. I don't see a Reagen among the GOP candidates, but Obama is beatable.
Lightman's model is about as valid as the second and third comments on this post (by Hemroidtreatment and Nail Fungus Cure).
Based on who this post seems to draw, it seems that Obama has the nail fungus and "hemroid" vote.
Whoops, didn't realize a nail fungus joke had already been logged.
I find it interesting that the professor doesn't think any particular policy positions matter. Just major policy change.
Apparently, the public's perception of that policy change is inconsequential.
Also, a note to Obama, a quick and overwhelming conquest of oh say Canada is an electoral plus.
Oh please, oh please change your prediction!
Mungowitz's predictions of the future, especially in politics, are so reliably false.
Please oh please let it be that you're just reporting this crappy model and not telling us what your gut is telling you.
In case folks are interested, Gelman links to wunderkind Nate Silver's demolition of Lichtman:
http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/09/01/shooting-a-rabbit-with-a-cannon/
One would think prosecuting an illegal war would be scandal enough. Sadly, it probably isn't.
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