Monday, March 31, 2008

Still no official results in the Zimbabwe Election

People, a presidential election occurred Saturday in Bobby Mugabe's Zimbabwe. The results were supposed to be reported this morning, but so far no complete results have been forthcoming. The main opposition party, the M.D.C. is claiming they've won a majority (there are three candidates, Mugabe, Tsvangirai of the M.D.C. and Simba Makoni). As of last night the NY Times was quoting an anonymous "independent observer" saying the tallies were Tsvangirai 58%, Mugabe 37%, and Makoni 5%.

However, the delay in announcing full results and the staging of the partial results are causing concern. The results announced so far show Mugabe's party and the M.D.C tied in the number of seats won for Parliment, and the fear is that Mugabe trying to steal the election and get a result announced of him winning 52% of the vote and his party holding a 1 seat majority in Congress.

Hmmm, I wonder what Ray Fair's economic model of the incumbent's share of the vote would predict when you plug in an unemployment rate of 80% and an inflation rate of 100,000%?