Tucker Carlson, Libertarian President Candidate? Really?

Just got a call from a polling firm.

Checking on Lib Prez candidates. Made sure I was a delegate to the national convention.

Guy asks, "Which of the following candidates do you support for Lib Pres nomination?"
(Reads list, including Barr, Gravel, Ruart, and Root. Also includes Tucker Carlson. I figure that Carlson is just a spoiler; he has never said he's a Libertarian, and isn't running for Prez.)

I answer "Undecided," which is true.

Guy asks, "After that first choice, what is your SECOND choice?"

Stunned for a moment, I pause and say, "Still....undecided."

Guy says, "Final question: Which of those candidates would you say has true Libertarian values?"

I'm a big tent guy, so I say: "All of them....EXCEPT Tucker Carlson."

Guy rings off. I am smug, thinking I caught them on their spoiler question.

Except that, Tucker Carlson has apparently decided to think about it. And Carlson may be funding the polling of Lib Nat Conv delegates.

Interesting. All the end of this week, I'll be live-blogging the LP Nat Conv, so stay tuned. It sounds pretty exciting.

UPDATE: Clearly, from comments, I was unclear. Far be it for me to check someone's papers on whether s/he is "really" a libertarian. If Tucker wants in, he's in. More power to him. I was making a mistake more fundamental than that. I thought I was answering based on a spoiler question, the sort of thing that people use to discredit a group. "Look, all these delegates, people who should know better, said that Tucker Carlson was running! What idiots!" I was wrong to do that, because Tucker is in fact considering running. BR points out Tuckers has been saying he's a Libertarian for some time. I just didn't know. In any case, the point is that I was answering a survey in what I thought, wrongly (as usual!), was a clever way. On the merits, sure, Tucker Carlson is a libertarian, and welcome!

Q&A

The question is good.

The answers, as you'll see, are better.

(Nod to Jo, who could manipulate anyone, but she's got scruples)

It's official....and, a new web site!

Dear Friends:

This is a big night for me.

Because I can announce that, really really, for sure....I am the Libertarian Keynote Speaker for the Libertarian National Convention.

I am splitting the keynote hour with Richard Viguerie, a noted conservative speaker who nearly single-handedly invented direct mail as a political tool. And we are lucky to have Richard there. It will be interesting, and I look forward to hearing him speak.

But....I get to go first!

The title of my speech, which starts at about 2 pm on Friday, is taken from one of my main concerns about Libertarian progress: "What are we for?"

Too often, outsiders perceive us as only being AGAINST things. Well, what are we FOR?

My shot at answering that question. Should be available as a podcast, at least, next week.

Also, a new campaign website. It is still being built. But it looks great, thanks to new campaign webmaster John S.

The Glass Ceiling, and Trying Harder

Queens of the hill: Creative destruction and the emergence of executive
leadership of women

Stacie Furst & Martha Reeves
The Leadership Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract:
Despite penetrating the middle management ranks of many U.S. businesses, women continue to lag far behind men in their appointments to top leadership positions. Many explanations exist for why the glass ceiling exists, but few theories offer suggestions for how women break through this ceiling. In this paper we propose that the concept of 'creative destruction' can help us understand why some women ascend to leadership positions. Using empirical research and anecdotal evidence from the experiences of several high-profile female executives, we argue that women may rise to leadership positions in turbulent environments that are receptive to new talent and open to innovative, bold ideas. Further, we propose that under these conditions women may be seen as especially attractive candidates to guide organizations because they are perceived to utilize a leadership style that promotes openness and inclusion, and facilitates change.

--------------------------

Gender Differences in Seeking Challenges: The Role of Institutions

Muriel Niederle & Alexandra Yestrumskas
NBER Working Paper, April 2008

Abstract:
We examine whether women and men of the same ability differ in their decisions to seek challenges. In the laboratory, we create an environment in which we can measure a participants performance level (high or low), where a high performance level participant has on average higher earnings from solving a hard rather than an easy task, and vice versa. After we identify each participant's performance level, they choose the difficulty level (easy or hard) for the next two tasks (only one of which will be chosen for payment). Although there are no gender differences in performance, or beliefs about relative performance, men choose the hard task about 50 percent more frequently than women, independent of performance level. Gender differences in preferences for characteristics of the tasks cannot account for this gender gap. When we allow for a flexible choice, high performing women choose the hard task significantly more often, at a rate now similar to the decision of men. Such a flexible choice makes challenging choices easier when participants are either risk averse, or uncertain about their ability. Our results highlight the role of institution design in affecting choices of women and men, and the resulting gender differences in representation in challenging tasks.

(Nod to KL)

Scraper Bike

Didn't know what a "scraper bike" was.

Now, I do.



Of course, you hyphy fans knew all along. I'm always the last to hear things.

My Kingdom for a Counterfactual!

While reading a post on Dani Rodrik’s blog, I was struck by a phrase he wrote that didn’t really have anything to do with the argument in his post. The phrase that caught my attention was “the phenomenal success of the Bretton Woods Regime”. While 1947-1972 was a successful era for some countries, I wonder how much of any such success can actually be attributed to the Bretton Woods Institutions that "ran" the regime? These institutions are the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Trade Organization (ITO). Let’s review, shall we?

(1) WB chartered as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 1945 was woefully inadequate for postwar reconstruction. The US initiated the Marshall plan to get done what the WB was supposed to get done. Then, throughout the cold war era, the WB was to a large extent a tool of US foreign policy, propping up authoritarian regimes throughout the developing world. The IDA was created more or less to give concessional loans to countries the IBRD wouldn’t loan to that the US feared would come under Communist sway. Then, post Bretton Woods, there was the sad, sad saga of structural adjustment and the pure comedy gold of every year’s new magic development bullet unveiled in the World Development report. Make no mistake my friends, the WB = epic fail.

(2) IMF- also initiated in 1945 could have only been designed by a committee of international bureaucrats featuring as it did the “adjustable peg”. Countries adjustably pegged to the US dollar which was pegged to gold and convertible into gold. But the system didn’t actually work as planned. The US allowed discrimination against its imports via the European Payments Union until 1958. It wasn’t until 1961 that enough countries finally allowed free convertibility of their currencies for trade purposes for the IMF to certify compliance with Article VIII of its charter. Two years later, the amount of dollars held by foreign monetary authorities became larger than the amount of gold held by the US (i.e. the Triffin Paradox started to bind) and with capital flows starting to roll, the handwriting was on the wall. After the spectacular collapse of the system it was entrusted to manage, the IMF got into the development business and the financial rescue business with equally good results. A suggested slogan for the IMF: “We make the WB look good”.

(3) The ITO. Never came into being. Stillborn. Clearly the least unsuccessful of the Bretton Woods Institutions.

Flat out-all out serious here, people. These attempts at central planning on a global scale were spectacular failures and the vestigial ghosts of them that remain today should be abolished.

The second funniest stuff I read today

Comes from the website of the hotel ( The Palissandre) where we are spending our first night in Madagascar before heading out into the countryside:

From its terrace overlooking the Madagascar capital, the restaurant "La Table des Hautes Terres" makes it a point to honour the tasty local specialties as well as fine French cook. You can choose from a menu or individual dishes. The Bar "the Amphora" invites you to taste delicious cocktails in a felted decoration.

I *can't* wait!!

Hobo Has Operation; Mr. 2T Sad

Old fat Hobo, wonderdog of the Munger house, had to have a rather serious operation. It did not go well, but he should recover enough to become once again the terror of dry dog food.

Mr. 2T, on hearing the news, was understandably bereft. Mr. 2T is nothing if not loyal.

Say What?? -- Bob Shiller plunges into the deep end of the pool

In his Sunday's NY Times op-ed, "The Scars of Losing a Home", we find the following passage:

Homeownership is fundamental part of a sense of belonging to a country. The psychologist William James wrote in 1890 that “a man’s Self is the sum total of all that he CAN call his, not only his body and his psychic powers, but his clothes and his house, his wife and children, his ancestors and friends, his reputation and works, his lands and horses, and yacht and bank account.”

Homeownership is thus an extension of self; if one owns a part of a country, one tends to feel at one with that country. Policy makers around the world have long known that, and hence have supported the growth of homeownership.

What? Holy Crap, people, "belonging to a country"? Homeownership is about political indoctrination?

And man, where did that quote come from? we are making an argument based on one sentence of opinion by some dude from the 1890s?

Even granting the premise "homeownership is an extension of self" (whatever that may mean), it in no way implies, proves or relates to what's cooking up in the second clause of that sentence.

If I could summarize, the argument appears to be this: some guy 118 years ago said your home is part of your self and that proves that owning a home gives you solidarity with your country, so we should bail out the foreclosees before they become unpatriotic.

Epic Fail

It's failure and sadness all the way around in this story from Inside Higher Ed about Prof. Steve Aird and Norfolk State University.

No one seems to dispute that Aird was denied tenure for failing too many students. How many is too many? Well many professors at Norfolk State say that there is a clear expectation from administrators — in particular from Dean Sandra J. DeLoatch, the dean whose recommendation turned the tide against Aird’s tenure bid — that 70 percent of students should pass.

Now that seems more than a little nuts, to have a quota. However, Aird wasn't just marginally below quota:

The review listed various courses, with remarks such as: “At the end of Spring 2004, 22 students remained in Dr. Aird’s CHM 100 class. One student earned a grade of ‘B’ and all others, approximately 95 percent, earned grades between ‘D’ and ‘F.’” Or: “At the end of Fall 2005, 38 students remained in Dr. Aird’s BIO 100 class. Four students earned a grade of ‘C-’ or better and 34, approximately 89 percent, received D’s and F’s.”

These class records resulted in the reason cited for tenure denial: “the core problem of the overwhelming failure of the vast majority of the students he teaches, especially since the students who enroll in the classes of Dr. Aird’s supporters achieve a greater level of success than Dr. Aird’s students.”

So I gotta say that this is more than a little nuts too. If you are consistently failing a majority of your students, you are in the wrong place. One can argue that the institution should be reformed or disbanded, but as an employee you cannot take it upon yourself to create an entirely separate mini-world.

Why no one will hire Avery Johnson

Alternative title: Why Josh Howard smokes the weed!!

Cost Estimates of the Petition Drive Experience

Estimates of the costs of the petition method for qualifying parties:

1. Cost to the party
a. $134,000 in cash
b. 2,200 hours of additional volunteer time, above and beyond time spent by paid petitioners
c. 250 hours of additional administrative time, planning drives and raising funds
d. 10,000 individual pieces of paper. That’s more than 20 reams of paper, or 400 pounds!

2. Cost to the taxpayers of North Carolina
a. Processing costs for county clerks, who must check the validity of every signature: 4,000 hours! That’s more than 160 person-days of time that county clerks have to spend on this task. And that is assuming only 2 minutes per signature. Some take 5, or even 10, minutes to verify each signature.
b. Since the process keeps most parties out completely, the real cost to taxpayers is democracy. No choices, no new ideas, and no competition in a system that could surely use it. Nearly half of the seats in the General Assembly will be unopposed again this year because we have had to spend all our resources on this bizarre exercise instead of recruiting candidates and campaigning.

We turned in the SIGNATURES! We did it!

We turned in the signatures!!

Loading up....I forget sometimes that I am rather larger than most people.

The media awaits! WRAL did a nice job, and so did WPTF. More than fair coverage.


(photo credits: Tom Howe)

Is Argentina going to implode again?

Even without the help of the IMF? Jack Chang, in his blog "Inside South America" says maybe so:

Local media report that people are buying up dollars for fear that the peso could slide again and that the government will respond by freezing bank accounts, like it did in the bad old days. Government officials have denied any such measures are in the works, but people don't seem to be listening. The country's central bank recently had to inject $1 billion in dollars into the banking system to counter the bank rush.

Other evidence: In the capital of Buenos Aires, a poll by the Public Opinion Center of the University of Belgrano found that 69 percent of respondents believed another crash was "very probable," with 41 percent believing it could be triggered by inflation.

Which leads to the factors. First there's the protracted battle between President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and the country's farming sector, the main economic engine here, over higher export taxes imposed on soybeans and sunflowers in March. Farmers have blocked roads and withheld production to protest the higher taxes, and as the conflict drags on, the risk to the economy grows.

Then, there's inflation, which the government says hovers around 8 percent annually but which economists estimate is as much as three times that number. And a more recent factor, the Argentine peso is weakening against the dollar, a decline that bucks the worldwide trend. This morning, the peso was trading at 3.18 to the dollar.

Bloomberg has further coverage of the Argentine farmers' protests and notes that President Fernandez's popularity is falling to de la Rua levels (i.e. getting run out of office levels).

Wow, it seems that the only things worse than the results of orthodox policies in Latin America are the results of heterodox policies in Latin America.

McCain gets one thing right and HRC goes mental!

John McCain had the guts to say he would veto the current farm bill thus making an almost infinite increase in the number of sensible things he's said lately, but Hill's having none of it:


"I believe saying no to the farm bill is saying no to rural America."

"When Bear Stearns needed assistance, we stepped in with a $30 billion package. But when our farmers need help, all they get from Senator McCain and President Bush is a veto threat," Clinton said.

Holy Crap! Do high food prices hurt farmers? I thought low food prices hurt them? Is there anything on this planet that could possibly happen that wouldn't hurt the American farmer?

With moves like this, how could John Edwards not have endorsed her?

Okay, this is true

Okay, so this guy has a point.

UPDATE: As Jerry Cruncher notes rightly, in comments, this is really a hoax, along these lines.

An interesting perspective on our inability to forecast exchange rate movements

25 years ago Meese and Rogoff showed that exchange rate changes were largely unforecastable. This result continues to hold. Now Flood and Rose say, Don't worry, be happy because we can't forecast aggregative stock index changes either (I am not making this up).

Their paper is called "Why so glum? The Meese-Rogoff methodology meets the stock market"

Here is a link. Here is the abstract:

This paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock prices. We stick as close as possible to the original Meese-Rogoff sample and methodology. Just as Meese and Rogoff found for the case of exchange rates, we find that a random walk model of stock prices performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve
month horizons, even though we base forecasts on actual future fundamentals of dividends and earnings. Using this metric and for this sample period, aggregate stock prices seem to be as difficult to model empirically as exchange rates.

Note that saying a random walk model works best means that the best predictor of tomorrow's price is today's price which means price changes are not forecastable.

I think more disciplines should adopt this trend. Math guys could write papers saying hey, don't worry that we can't prove conjecture X, we can't prove conjecture Y either!

hat tip to LOL President

Edwards Endorses Obama

Ex-Senator, and ex-VP candidate John Edwards endorses Barak Obama.

Explosion at Duke

Steam explosion at Duke.

One dead.

Oz: where men are men and children are projectiles!

People, the Associated Press is putting me out of business:

DARWIN, Australia - An Australian man has been fined after buckling in a case of beer with a seat belt but leaving a 5-year-old child to sit on the car's floor, police said Tuesday.

Constable Wayne Burnett said he was "shocked and appalled" when he pulled over the unregistered car Friday in the central Australian town of Alice Springs.

The 30-can beer case was strapped in between two adults sitting in the back seat of the car. The child was also in back, but on the car's floor.

"The child was sitting in the lump in the center, unrestrained," Burnett told reporters Tuesday.

"I haven't ever seen something like this before," he said. "This is the first time that the beer has taken priority over a child.

Judging from that last statement, I guess Constable Burnett doesn't get out and about much.

Vote for McCain, or else.......

pro-cyclical fiscal policy....

(it's not just for Latin America anymore people)

In discussions of fiscal policy, a number of lags are important. The recognition lag is the time between when a problem starts and when we know it has started. The implementation lag is the time between when we realize there is problem and when we get an action through the political system. The impact lag is the time between when the action is taken and when the effect of the action is felt.

If these lags are too long, then the policy action risks being pro-cyclical rather than counter cyclical, which is to say it will hit the economy after the downswing is over.

That certainly seems to be the case for the US now, at least based on the following:

1. recession probabilities have faded:


According to Intrade, the probability peaked at 75% in mid April and had declined to below 30% in early May....

2. just when the stimulus checks are arriving:

For Social Security numbers ending in 00 through 09, the paper checks will be mailed starting May 9 and will continue through May 16. A similar process will be repeated in the following weeks.

Even in this super-fast, super-charged, election year political atmosphere(which produced a negative recognition lag???), the policy will probably be procyclical and thus put more upward pressure on prices.

And this helped you exactly how???

In 2004, well known coach choker Latrell Sprewell spurned a 3 year 20 million $ plus contract from the Minnesota T-Wolves as woefully insufficient saying that "I have my family to feed" (you can buy the t-shirt here).

He has been out of the league since the end of that season.

Today, karma came calling again with the news that Spree's house is being repossessed. His 70 foot yacht was sold off at auction back in January.

This is pretty close to Darwin award behavior, innit?

Hat tip to TC

Grading is over, the Semester is done, &

Clinton's Farewell Speech?

I did NOT make this comparison. To Hitler.

I laughed at it. But I did not make it.

What I do in my spare time

Collect art.

Here are the artists we are currently collecting at Chez Angus:

Souther Salazar
Billy Woolway
Joe Garcia
Manuel Castro Leñero
Floyd Kuptana
Maudie Ohiktook
Antoine Oleyant
Lynda Barry

Here is the latest piece we got; it's by Joe Garcia:



Here is how I collect art:

"hey honey, have you seen this piece? It's only $XXX. What do you think? What if I could get them down to .8*$XXX? Well what about this one? Who do you like better? Shouldn't we get them both? What do you think?"

The 4% Solution

Rasmussen puts the NC Gov race as follows:
McCrory 45%
Perdue 39%
Munger 4%

The "favorables", according to the report:

McCrory is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 29%. Perdue’s ratings are 50% favorable, 41% unfavorable. Munger is less known, earning favorable ratings from 24%, unfavorable ratings from 35% and 41% who are not sure.

As Buck Owens and Dwight Yoakum put it, "They don't know me, but they don't like me..." I'll have to work to change that.

Which puts in mind the Sam Cooke song, covered by many: If I can meet I can get, but yet I haven't met 'em. That's why I'm in the state I'm in.

(Nod to the Madman)

Ron Paul rides to Mungowitz' Rescue!

Yes Mungowitz' McCainophobia is being treated by Dr. Ron Paul, according to the LA Times:

quietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in Minnesota at the beginning of September. In the last three months, Paul's forces, who donated $34.5 million to his White House effort and upward of a million total votes, have, as The Ticket has noted, been fighting a series of guerrilla battles with party establishment officials at county and state conventions from Washington and Missouri to Maine and Mississippi. Their goal: to take control of local committees, boost their delegate totals and influence platform debates. They hope to demonstrate their disagreements with McCain vocally at the convention through platform fights and an attempt to get Paul a prominent speaking slot. Paul, who's running unopposed in his home Texas district for an 11th House term, still has some $5 million in war funds and has instructed his followers that their struggle is not about a single election, but a long-term revolution for control of the Republican Party.

Now personally, I'm guessing this will be about as successful as his presidential campaign, but it least it gives my boy Mungowitz some hope in these dark hours.

Hat tip to Steven Taylor!

Memo To John Hood

Memo to John Hood:

Keep ON MESSAGE, please.

(Background: RT Beckwith, who apparently has a direct connection with the sinister forces of darkness, reveals a speculative truth.

In particular, and I quote: "If Mike Gravel wins anywhere: Hysteria. Reporters wander around in a daze. Pollsters jump out second-story windows. Bloggers say they saw it coming all along. Plagues of locusts swarm the earth. A third of Democratic voters turn red. Mike Munger reveals he is the anti-Christ."

Now, Beckwith may have good sources, and he may have heard this rumor. But it was just a RUMOR, ferBev'ssake. But.....But.....But: John Hood goes ahead in comments and CONFIRMS the rumor:

Uh, Ryan, didn't you already know that about Munger? It's not like he tries to hide it or anything.

Now, see, that's just wrong. I remember that meeting of the Dark League, and John Hood was sitting right in the front row, between Hitler and Coach K, an "all hands" gathering of the forces of the Dark League. And we were TOLD not to confirm my nomination for Anti-Christ.

Oh, well. Just as long as no one reveals that Bev Perdue was chairing the meeting, I suppose we're okay. So, Hood, you blabbermouth, ixnay on the Erduepay is Atansay, okay?

Everybody will be kung-fu fighting

In getting ready to go to Madagascar, one of the most surprising things Mrs. Angus and I have learned in our reading is that the country is kung-fu crazy!

According to the BBC:

Kung fu primarily appeals to Madagascar's middle class youth of both sexes, with some students beginning as young as four. But it also has a following in the older sections of society.

"Ministers, doctors, lawyers, and especially priests all practise kung fu," explains Charles Andriamihaja, the president of the AAKUFUMA Kung Fu Society of Madagascar.

The discipline hit the island in the 1970s and was a factor in protests against the authoritarian rule of President Ratsiraka, who banned its practice.

Current President Ravalomanana is a whole other story though. He has his own voluntary kung-fu security detail (at least he did in 2002). Here's how one local practitioner describes his prez:

"Ravalomanana reflects the ideology of the kung fu and that is why we must protect him,"

Ellie Rajaonarison (a Malagasy poet) breaks it down for us:

"The kung fu movement was about protecting people,"

"Kung fu fighters today occupy something of a mystical space in the Madagascan psyche because of their strength and power and for what they stood up for during the 1980s."

Thank goodness me and Mrs. Angus practiced Tae Kwon Do for a couple years. We'll be aiight.

Kyoto, Shmyoto: China Dwarfs It!

Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level
information

Maximilian Auffhammer & Richard Carson
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, May 2008, Pages 229-247

Abstract:
Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

(nod to KL)

Models: If they predict, they are useful

Regarding the earlier post on soccer and national personalities.....

An acquaintance of an acquaintance who used to work for the...well...call it the "Foreign Service" sends this followup:

"Did I ever tell you that we used to measure the mood of Croatians toward their government through their behavior at soccer matches? That is one of the few places they had the en masse courage to chant anti-government slogans. We also counted the number of cops beat up after the game."

A perfect new variable, though hard to collect, in predicting revolutions: The number of cops with bloody noses after soccer matches.

A Long Distance Fan

As I blogged on the campaign blog, a long distance fan.

The A-holes fight back

No doubt stung by my attacks, the Burmese Generals have launched a huge image upgrade campaign consisting of printing their names in large letters on the aid packages coming in from abroad. No, I am not making this up:

Myanmar's military regime distributed international aid Saturday but plastered the boxes with the names of top generals in an apparent effort to turn the relief effort for last week's devastating cyclone into a propaganda exercise...State-run television continuously ran images of top generals — including the junta leader, Senior Gen. Than Shwe — handing out boxes of aid to survivors at elaborate ceremonies. One box bore the name of Lt. Gen. Myint Swe, a rising star in the government hierarchy, in bold letters that overshadowed a smaller label reading: "Aid from the Kingdom of Thailand."

"We have already seen regional commanders putting their names on the side of aid shipments from Asia, saying this was a gift from them and then distributing it in their region," said Mark Farmaner, director of Burma Campaign UK, which campaigns for human rights and democracy in the country. "It is not going to areas where it is most in need," he said in London.

The George Bush Story:

Coming soon to a theatre near you!!!!

Come Upstairs, and See the Size of My Alpha

Can individuals beat the market? Consistently?

Apropos the recent question about Warren Buffet, I mean. (Buffet, of course, has access to someone named "Munger," which gives Buffet a huge advantage....)

Paulville part deux....

Some more on Paulville....

(Yes, it's a joke. You may, or may not, find it funny....)

The Federal Bee-reau of Apiation

Bees, externalities, and the "custom of the orchard."

You'll like it.

Warren Buffet and Efficient Market Theory

Can Warren Buffet make money? Consistently?

Or is he like an ace fighter pilot?

(Nod to El Zorno, who can make money disappear)

Darned "Elite Economists"

Do you think that she means, by "elite," that they can add, subtract, and read complete sentences?

An Unfortunate Truth

"[Obama's] first instinct -- the academic instinct -- is to explain and analyze, which is impressive to political writers who share that particular vocation. But this approach always places the explainer in a position of superiority...The issue of the lapel flag pin is a good illustration. Obama's explanation for its absence -- that it had become a 'substitute' for 'true patriotism' in the aftermath of Sept. 11 -- is perfectly rational. For a professor at the University of Chicago. ...A president is expected to be a patriotic symbol himself, not the arbiter of patriotic symbols. He is supposed to be the face-painted superfan at every home game; to wear red, white and blue boxers on special marital occasions; to get misty-eyed during the most obscure patriotic hymns." [Gerson, WP op-ed]

(nod to KL)

Political Violence Produces Soccer VIolence

National Cultures and Soccer Violence

Edward Miguel, Sebastián Saiegh & Shanker Satyanath
NBER Working Paper, March 2008

Abstract:
Can some acts of violence be explained by a society's "culture"? Scholars have found it hard to empirically disentangle the effects of culture, legal institutions, and poverty in driving violence. We address this problem by exploiting a natural experiment offered by the presence of thousands of international soccer (football) players in the European professional leagues. We find a strong relationship between the history of civil conflict in a player's home country and his propensity to behave violently on the soccer field, as measured by yellow and red cards. This link is robust to region fixed effects, country characteristics (e.g., rule of law, per capita income), player characteristics (e.g., age, field position, quality), outliers, and team fixed effects. Reinforcing our claim that we isolate cultures of violence rather than simple rule-breaking or something else entirely, there is no meaningful correlation between a player's home country civil war history and soccer performance measures not closely related to violent conduct.

Here's an A-hole we can all agree on

Yeah "Senior General" Than Shwe, you KNOW I'm talkin' about you. The putative leader of Burma's now 46 year young military dictatorship won't allow US planes to land with aid, and won't allow UN aid workers. Now the "government" has seized initial UN shipments of aid and the UN has suspended further deliveries.

Apparently the generals would rather have secure rule over a kingdom of corpses than risk any threat to their power no matter how dire the emergency, and for that they are now the official KPC A-holes of the decade.

Poll-cats and telemarketers

Robert S. P. commented earlier, in part: "As a poor student who does polling ...I really have no sympathy for people who abuse and are rude to telemarketers and even more so pollsters. They're mostly students and low-income people. If you don't want to talk, don't answer the phone. "

Robert, I appreciate your perspective. And Angus and I acknowledge that you are one of our best readers, and almost always correct (meaning you agree with us).

But: I have to answer the phone. I have two teen-age sons, and they get into scrapes. Flat tire, forgot something, locked keys in car, got lost, etc.

Further, IT IS MY PHONE. I paid for it. I am on the "Do not call" list. Unless you want to pay me for my time, that means, "Do not call." I am happy to consider offers to do phone interviews, for pay. Just send the contract via U.S. mail, and we'll negotiate it.

Finally, the "I was just following orders" defense didn't fare well at Nuremberg. Why should we credit it now?*

So, I will answer the phone. And if it someone calling me for their commercial gain, at a waste of my time, then abuse will occur. I have zero sympathy for involuntary exploitation of phone-owners just because they happen to be polite. Angus and I, unafflicted by this politeness malady, strike a blow for justice.

I owe civility to invited guests, and to strangers who need my help. If your car breaks down in front of my house, then come on in, use the phone, and I'll make tea and break out a plate of pecan sandies while we wait for the tow truck.

But no civility is owed to people who call me for their gain, against my expressed wishes.

[*Yes, of course this is a ridiculous comparison. What are blogs for?]

CHILL--EE--PUNK'D! Oh, the humanity

This was at once the best, and worst, experience of my week.

Telephone call: It's someone taking a poll. I usually don't do this, but I'm interested in how they will word my candidacy.

So, the lady goes through the Prez comparisons, and I answer. (My answer: McCain would come below a dead snake in the road, but above a live though wounded skunk).

Then, she gets to the NC Gov race. I begin to swell with pride, though I plan on playing it cool, and just saying that I would vote for Munger.

She says: "The candidates for Governor are Beverly Purdue and Pat McCrory." Who do you plan to vote for?"

Me: " "

Caller: "Sir, the candidates for Governor are Beverly Purdue and Pat McCrory." Who do you plan to vote for?"

Me: "I'm going to vote for Munger."

Caller: "Sir, that's not an option."

Me: "Ah, but it IS an option. I happen to be Mike Munger, the Libertarian candidate, and I am in fact on the ballot. Your information is incorrect."

Caller: " "

Me: "Ma'am? Are you there? There are three candidates for Governor in NC."

Caller: [CLICK]

***********************
Now, I am very proud that I got a telemarketer to hang up on ME (Angus can achieve this more than 50% of the time, but I have never been as good at it.)

Still....A bitter reminder that I am going to have to do a lot of work to convince the "professionals" that there really are three candidates. If the polling firm would mention my name, that would be some really important free advertising.

Chill. EEEE. Punk'd.

Holy Cow! Angus Chilipunk'd by Munger Minions

One of the great mysteries of life is how Germany managed to convince people that Hitler was an Austrian and Beethoven a German.

Now Mungowitz has worked a similar magic with his journalistic minions in Raleigh:

Duke profs on Hillary

Mike Munger, chair of the Duke political science department and Libertarian candidate for governor, weighs in on Hillary Rodham Clinton's future, along with his colleague David Rohde.

Found on Munger's personal blog , which often is a pretty fun read.

Ouch?

Respect v. Tolerance

Christoph raises an interesting question, on an earlier post.

To wit, isn't one of the core values of Libertarianism the respect for other people's opinions, and lifestyles? Including desiring that other people get to express their views, and that I have a chance to listen to them?

After thinking about it, I find I disagree. There is a big difference between two things:

1. Respect: A positive affect for other people, for their views, and for their choices. Meaning, I actively like other people, regardless of their worldview.

2. Tolerance: An acceptance, both as a matter of personal conduct and as a matter of policy, for views and choices toward which I have negative affect. Meaning, I leave other people alone, even if I think they are making a mistake. If they ask me, I'll give them advice. But I will not use the coercive power of the state to FORCE them to act as I want them to, even if my "want" is genuinely motivated by love and good feelings.

I have no respect for the choices of men who decide to raise their children as fundamentalists, rejecting science in favor of mysticism. Doesn't matter if you are Taliban, or Baptist, you're wrong to do that. I have no respect for women who use abortion as a casual birth control device.

In fact, I dislike them. Those are stupid choices.

But I also believe strongly, as a Libertarian, that we have to tolerate those choices.

No way I want to have to listen to those people justify their bad choices, or to force me to pay for their living expenses. In fact, if they come to my door to ask for money, I'll show 'em my gun collection. They had better stay away from me.

But, the government had better stay away from THEM.

If Libertarianism requires that we have a sense of love for idiots, then I don't think Angus and I are Libertarians. We can't do it, and we can't fake it.

Careful, don't step in that guanxi

The changing Chinese culture and business behavior: The perspective of
intertwinement between guanxi and corruption

Yadong Luo
International Business Review, forthcoming

Abstract:
Despite the enormous economic progress it has made over the past thirty years, China is increasingly demoralized, manifested in part in the intertwinement between guanxi and corruption. This change has fundamental repercussions on business culture, practices, and performance, and even more so in years ahead if corruption continues to be ubiquitous there. In this article I briefly explain why and how guanxi and corruption are intertwined, define the level of intertwineability that differs between weak form and strong form, and provide the taxonomy along the level of power abuse and the strength of intertwineability. This taxonomy can be used as a reference framework by future research within which to analyze the dynamics of guanxi-corruption interrelationships as well as organizational responses to such dynamics.

Guanxi

(Nod to KL)

Other predictions

I thought I would see how my OTHER predictions are faring. (Angus, being a PUSSWEILER, made only one actual prediction, that McCain would win. The rest was pretty tame).

Here are my baseball predictions, from January 1:

The Yankees suck, and wish they had not fired Joe Torre.

(the Yankees are under .500, thank you very much. 17-18. But they don't REALLY REALLY suck).

Boston's Manny Ramirez, ever trendy, also threatens to take the UFO shuttle back to his home planet, "Always Happy World." But he misses the UFO flight, apparently looking for the toilet inside the "Green Monster" in Fenway's left field. Asked later by a reporter how he had missed the flight, Manny said: "Forget about the flight, man. This is the place I want to be, man. It's great, man. They love me here, man. This is the place to be. 'Manny being Manny,' he's great, man... we've been through a lot, this is the place for me, I'm just happy to be here... I'm back!"

(Manny is batting .316, with 7 HR and 24 RBI. And he's been quiet, on the psychotic front. The hair is getting a little long, but who am I to criticize about that?).

The Arizona Diamondbacks win the World Series in seven games, beating the Cleveland Indians.

D-backs have best record in baseball. The Tribe....well, the Tribe sucks. Why does the Tribe suck? Still, Tribe plays in a really weak division, and even a brief run of non-sucking could put them in first.

Fausto Carmona (AL) and Brandon Webb (NL) are the Cy Young winners.

Fausto Carmona is 3-1, with 2.95 ERA. And, Cleveland's sucking is not helping him. But he is not throwing strikes, or strikeouts, like he did last year.
Brandon Webb is 7-0, with a 2.49 ERA. If you are keeping score, that's one for me.

RBI machine Matt Holiday wins the NL MVP, though the Rockies barely miss the playoffs.

Holiday is .305 BA, with 5 HR. Not terrible, but not close to MVP. And the Rockies are 13-21 (though they scored 4 in the 8th last night to ruin my boy Wainright's shutout, and beat that poseur Isringhausen, who has four blown saves already).

Victor Martinez wins the AL MVP, leading the Tribe to the Series with his bat and defensive dominance behind the plate.

Martinez has thrown out 8 of 19 stealing, which is respectable. And he's batting .336, which for a catcher is a lot more than just respectable. But he's suffering a power drought: zero homers. That means he's on pace to hit: zero homers. Obviously, he'll hit some, but he averaged over 20 homers per year over the last four years.

OVERALL: The only really accurate predictions are Brandon Webb, and the D-backs. The Yankees aren't great, but they are no worse than last year under Torre. All the Tribe predictions proved nonsensical, and Matt Holiday is a non-factor.

So, I'd say I'm no better at predicting baseball than I am at predicting politics.

Firms: Because that's how we roll

A Naturalistic Approach to the Theory of the Firm: The Role of Cooperation
and Cultural Evolution

Christian Cordes, Peter Richerson, Richard McElreath & Pontus Strimling
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming

Abstract:
One reason why firms exist, this paper argues, is because they are suitable organizations within which cooperative production systems based on human social predispositions can evolve. In addition, we show how an entrepreneur - given these predispositions - can shape human behavior within a firm. To illustrate these processes, we will present a model that depicts how the biased transmission of cultural contents via social learning processes within the firm influence employees' behavior and the performance of the firm. These biases can be traced back to evolved social predispositions. Humans lived in tribal scale social systems based on significant amounts of intra- and even intergroup cooperation for tens if not a few hundred thousand years before the first complex societies arose. Firms rest upon the
social psychology originally evolved for tribal life. We also relate our conclusions to empirical evidence on the performance and size of different kinds of organizations. Modern organizations have functions rather different from ancient tribes, leading to friction between our social predispositions and organization goals. Firms that manage to reduce this friction will tend to function better.

(Nod to KL)

Angus 1.5 - Mungowitz 0.0

On January 1st, Mungowitz predicted that Rudy G. and Hillary would be their parties' nominees with Hillary winning the presidency. That same day, I predicted John McCain would be the GOP nominee and that "Hillary will not be our next president". I personally would score it 2-0, but want to preclude any whining so I made it 1.5 to 0.

I am now going outside to do my victory dance.

Aces and Spaces

Theory of Aces: High Score by Skill or Luck?

M.V. Simkin & V.P. Roychowdhury
Journal of Mathematical Sociology, April 2008, Pages 129-141

Abstract:
We studied the distribution of World War I fighter pilots by the number of victories they were credited with, along with casualty reports. Using the maximum entropy method we obtained the underlying distribution of pilots by their skill. We find that the variance of this skill distribution is not very large, and that the top aces achieved their victory scores mostly by luck. For example, the ace of aces, Manfred von Richthofen, most likely had a skill in the top quarter of the active WWI German fighter pilots and was no more special than that. When combined with our recent study (Simkin and Roychowdhury, 2006), showing that fame grows exponentially with victory scores, these results (derived from real data) show that both outstanding achievement records and resulting fame are mostly due to chance.

Munger is CHILIPUNKED! Again......

Multiple newspapers have gotten the story bizarrely wrong on my testimony at the ballot access lawsuit in Raleigh on Monday. The Traingle Independent did a story, the Greensboro News and Record, and also the Winston-Salem Journal, all had variations on this story.

They point out the following two things:

1. Munger testifies, under oath, that it is IMPOSSIBLE for a third party to win any elections under current law. The reason is that the new party has to use up all its money to pay petitioners to collect signatures.

2. Munger "admits, under cross-examination" that the Libertarian Party has failed to win any elections.

Given #1, how hard would a cross-examiner have to work to get me to "admit" #2?

True, I also said that, if the law were eased, that at some point a party's viability would have to be judged by winning at least some elections. But that is only if the law were eased. Under the current law, I specifically said, "Impossible." Not difficult, not really hard: IMPOSSIBLE.

Since it is impossible to win, wouldn't you expect that no one has won?

I hate it when I get chilipunked like that!

UPDATE: In fairness, I should note that the News and Observer played it straight, wrote a balanced story, and made no egregious errors of logic. Nicely done, Titan Barksdale.

Paulville

Paulville, where everybody knows your name.

And they're always glad you came.

(Nod to KL, who should go to Paulville. And get asked the three questions: what is his name? And his quest. And his favorite color.)

Whiiiiiiiz-aaahrd!

Fla. Teacher Accused Of Wizardry
Man Made Toothpick Vanish In Class

Teacher Jim Piculas does a magic trick where a toothpick disappears and then reappears.

Piculas recently did the 30-second trick in front of a classroom at Rushe Middle School in Land 'O Lakes. Piculas said he then got a call from the supervisor of teachers, saying he'd been accused of wizardry.

"I get a call the middle of the day from head of supervisor of substitute teachers. He says, 'Jim, we have a huge issue, you can't take any more assignments you need to come in right away,'" he said. Piculas said he did not know of any other accusations that would have led to the action.

The teacher said he is concerned that the incident may prevent him from getting future jobs.

Um.....a wizard? Will they use the "wood / duck" test, from Monte Python?


(Nod to JK, a wizard himself)

Ouchie Ouchie Ouchie!

(Nod to SdM)

Better Than Angus

This kid not only sings better than Angus, she plays better gee-tar.



(Nod to MG)

Is Hillary Washed Up?

David Rohde and Mike Munger give their views.....

Turns Out "60 Minutes" is a KEY Scholarly Source

I was on the Joy Cardin show, on Wisconsin Public Radio, this a.m. Quite a few callers. You can listen, if you want.

I claimed that it would be easier to make John McCain look like a war hero than it was to make George Bush look like a war hero. And I claimed that, since the Repubs HAD made John Kerry, who has a Silver Star, look like a coward, Barack HUSSEIN Obama had better look out.

And I said that John McCain could claim that he had had tougher moments, like when he was tortured and wouldn't sign the form denouncing the U.S. the North Vietnamese put in front of him.

A caller, clearly outraged, called in and said that John McCain HAD in fact signed such a form, and that it was on "60 Minutes."

I admit, I brushed this off, because my real claim is simply this: John McCain is MORE of a war hero than George Bush. Barack Obama is LESS of a war hero than John Kerry. So, the Repubs will use ads saying that Michelle Obama has "never been proud of America," and Reverend Wright, and "bitter white foks", and so on. If they could do it to John Kerry, they can clearly do it to a guy whose middle name is "Hussein."

The caller is no doubt correct; my example is no doubt wrong. I won't use it again.
But who cares? I think you have to agree that McCain's military service is more than Bush's, and Obama's is less than Kerry's. If the Repubs could "swiftboat" Kerry, they will "bitter-God Damn America!-Never proud" Obama.

So, I get an email from the caller. He was apparently mad that I didn't take him more seriously. He said:

Dear Mr. Munger,
I was the caller this morning who refuted your assertion that John McCain had not recanted despite years of torture. When I told you that he had called himself a war criminal and signed a confession to that effect you said, "well, we've heard that from one person, Bill, and we'll never hear it again". That you can rise to a position of prominence at a university such as Duke and not know the rudimentary biography of the Republican candidate for President is lamentable at best. Watch the interview McCain gives to Mike Wallace(60 minutes) and see him say it in his own words.
Here's to knowing your subject matter. (Name)

Wow! I shouldn't be a Duke prof because I don't watch "60 Minutes"?

(UPDATE: Last paragraph above edited, after the fact, in acknowledgement of KPC friend "Prison Rodeo"'s comment-remark that I was, in fact, being an ass. Mea culpa; you are right.)

Vote by Mail?

Interesting article from "Campaigns and Elections", on national vote by mail rule.

Excerpt:

The bill, called the Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act, was approved by the House Administration Committee, of which Davis is a member, in early April. Davis' office says the next step is to get a full House vote, and Lisa Sherman, Davis' chief of staff, said at least one member of Congress is currently considering sponsoring similar legislation in the Senate.

"We believe it is the constitutional right of every voter to vote by absentee ballot," said Sherman. She added that Davis believes the bill can become law in time for the 2010 elections. Federal election law reforms, however, have been rather rare in recent legislative times...

Leaders with the American Civil Liberties Union have already hailed the bill as a way to eliminate "the unnecessary, burdensome, and often intrusive requirements that some states impose on voters requesting absentee ballots."

"The bill levels the playing field for all voters," said Deborah J. Vagins, ACLU policy counsel for civil rights and civil liberties. "We firmly believe that there shouldn't be unnecessary and artificial barriers to vote-and certainly there shouldn't be different standards for voting in the same election just depending on which state that you're in."

Whoa. The ACLU says there shouldn't be different standards for voting in the same election depending on which state you are in?

I have to ask: isn't it a problem for the ACLU that Article I, Section I in the Constitution says:

Section 4. The times, places and manner of holding elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations, except as to the places of choosing Senators.

Debate on this question, from 1788, in VA ratifying convention.

The point is that Congress does have the power to command the states to hold the elections in a certain way. But unless EVERY ASPECT of elections is commanded by the Congress, then the states will ALWAYS have different rules. Vive le difference!

Valedictory

(Nod to Alex H)

Ban those danglers!

The state of Florida acts to ban those silver metal bull-balls replicas that some people put on their trailer hitch receivers.

Rather unexpectedly, the bill has actually passed the Senate in FL.

As one friend of mine put it, "This is crazy. Most women would LIKE to have a big pair of balls dangling out of their receiver."

I should note that this friend has been married three times, and is currently "between wives," as he puts it. Few women find him as funny as he finds himself. And since he alone finds himself funny, he generally finds himself alone.

(Nod to Mr. Reasonable)

More On Majors and Success

College majors and social mobility

Gregory Wolniak, Tricia Seifert, Eric Reed & Ernest Pascarella
Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, forthcoming

Abstract:
To further our understanding of social mobility in the United States, this study examines the role of major field of study during college, and the relationships between origin characteristics and education attainment. Data, collected in 2001, consisted of information on the college and labor market experiences of 4435 alumni from 30 colleges, as well as matched ACT data on alumni background and pre-college characteristics from three cohorts of college graduates up to 25 years after college. Results indicate that both placement on and movement along the social ladder are affected by college major, and the extent to which status is awarded based on merit relative to inherited economic resources is partially dependent upon major.

Video (Note the short hair....)

Video from News 14 Carolina, on the ballot access trial.

Effectively Impossible, or Impossibly Effective

News and Observer story today on the ballot access lawsuit.

That's where I have been: in court. An interesting process.

Then, there was this story in the Greensboro News and Record.

"Munger admitted"? Let me get this straight:

1. I testified, under oath, that it is "effectively impossible" to run a successful grassroots campaign under the current law.

2. Then, under cross-examination, I "admitted" that no Libertarian candidates had won?

If in fact a Libertarian candidate had won, and I knew it, I think I would have been guilty of perjury, right? Of COURSE no Libertarian candidates have won. That's what it means to be "effectively impossible" to win. The laws are impossibly effective in protecting incumbents.

Still, the reporter here is right: This is the case that the state is trying to make. Wow.

Younger Younger Munger Gets Haircut

Here is Brian, without the uber-fro.

Tom Schaller Column

My boy, Tom Schaller, offers some opinions.

On Hillary.

Oh, sweet fancy Moses

Mr. Card expresses a view of J. K. Rowling.

(nod to Dr. Newmark, who knows things)

Update: Data on NC

John in NC shares some interesting data on the NC primary tomorrow.

Into your heart it will creep...

Wow. My finals remain unwritten, my morning shower un-taken because I am mesmerized by the fascinating case of Priya Venkatesan.

If you've missed all the hubbub, she was a lecturer at Dartmouth (and also an alumna), and currently has a fellowship at Northwestern (and a PhD from UC-San Diego), who is threatening to sue her students and the leadership of her department essentially for being too stupid and racist to understand her erudition.

The WSJ provides a summary of the case here, and Ivygate is a treasure trove of info on the subject.


The Dartmouth Review presents a long interview with Dr. Venkatesan here. I reproduce a long but choice excerpt below where Dr. V decodes the hidden meaning behind one hated student's spelling question:


TDR: There is one specific incident where I heard from one of the girls in your class who was pretty outspoken, and one day she hadn’t spoken for a while and you said, “Could we have a round of applause for this girl, she hasn’t spoken in ten minutes?”

PV: She was probably the most abrasive, the most offensive, the most disruptive student. She ruined that class. She ruined it. She ruined it. That class actually had a lot of potential, there were some really bright kids there, but every time she would do a number of things that were very inappropriate. For instance, I had basically gotten a hold of Blackboard technology, but I was making some mistakes too because I was new to the system, and every time that some link was wrong or some link wasn’t set up right, [girl x] in the beginning of class would point this out to everybody. Then what happened was, I was lecturing on morals and ethics and she just gave me this horrible look, and I was pretty disturbed. I just said what is going on here? The problem with [girl x] is that she can’t take criticism. She can’t take the fact that there is something wrong with her work. Now, some people are like that, a lot of people are like that, unable to take criticism, but the fact of the matter is that I have the PhD in literature, I make the assessment if someone has talent for philosophy, literary theory, and literary criticism. A student might say, well, the hell with you I’m still going to become a literary critic, I had to do that, there were people who criticized me while I was a student, you’re not a good writer or whatever, but I said well I’m still going to go ahead with my goals, but I never made any personal attacks on them or made life difficult for them or was rude to them. I just did the socially acceptable way of dealing with criticism, and [girl x] is the kind of student who does not know the socially acceptable way of dealing with criticism. She thinks the way to go about doing it is to go to my superior or to try to undermine my ability to teach the class. One of the things that she did, this is also really interesting, was that she would always ask me how to spell things. That was her thing. She would say how to do you spell this? How to you spell that? I mean—what am I supposed to do?—so I would tell her. One time Tom Cormen was sitting in the class, and she asked me, how many T’s are in Gattaca. This was the kind of question she was asking, “how many T’s are in Gattaca?,” and I was about to answer her and Tom Cormen pre-empted me, “two t’s.” I’ll leave you to interpret it.

TDR: No. No, I don’t understand that.

PV: I have to tell you: it means tenure track.

TDR: Oh, okay.

PV: Because I wasn’t tenured track.

TDR: Oh, okay, yes.

PV: They were trying to intimate that I wasn’t ready for tenure track.

TDR: Yes, okay, I didn’t realize that’s what that meant.

PV: I’m kind of making this leap because this is the kind of subversiveness that was going on in that environment. That [girl x] would ask how many t’s are in Gattaca and that Tom Cormen would respond, “two T’s” as if I had no grasp on tenure track. ..but with [girl x], something’s going on with her. I’m not a doctor, but she’s not all there.

Wow, now THAT'S paranoia!

Is more regulation always the answer?

As we dig out from the rubble of the housing bubble, calls for more government regulation / involvement abound, including Alan Blinder's piece in Sunday's NYTimes.

But let me just play devil's advocate and suggest that perhaps the problems we encountered didn't arise from insufficient government involvement, but rather that government involvement actually helped cause the problems.

1. There has been and still is a huge government push for people to buy houses. We give a tax deduction for mortgage interest, even on some types of second homes. We have a plethora of policies to make homeowners out of everyone.

2. Our monetary authority, in its infinite wisdom, sometimes pushes interest rates extremely low, encouraging people to borrow a lot and for some investors to take unusual moves to chase returns.

3. Uncle Sam is known to have a soft heart. He is a sucker for a sad story. Put another way, Uncle Sam is a moral hazard creating machine.

While I am sure we will get more regulation, and as suggestions go, some of Blinder's are pretty good, I don't think it's correct to view the housing bubble as an example of the free market going nuts on its own and government having to step in to fix a private sector problem.

Markets in everything: Dromedary Edition

Some things just go together, like roads and serfdom, like Mungowitz and Cheetos, and as KPC readers know, like India and camels!

And now, thanks to soaring oil prices, the bond between Indian and Dromedary is tighter than ever!

Camel demand soars in India

By Jo Johnson in New Delhi

Farmers in the Indian state of Rajasthan are rediscovering the humble camel.

As the cost of running gas-guzzling tractors soars, even-toed ungulates are making a comeback, raising hopes that a fall in the population of the desert state’s signature animal can be reversed.

“It’s excellent for the camel population if the price of oil continues to go up because demand for camels will also go up,” says Ilse Köhler-Rollefson of the League for Pastoral Peoples and Endogenous Livestock Development. “Two years ago, a camel cost little more than a goat, which is nothing. The price has since trebled.”

Market prices for these “ships of the desert”, which crashed with the growing affordability of motorised transport, are rising again as oil prices soar.

A sturdy male with a life expectancy of 60-80 years now fetches up to Rs40,000 ($973), compared to Rs5,000-Rs10,000 three years ago, according to Hanuwant Singh of the Lokhit Pashu-Palak Sansthan, a non-profit welfare organisation for livestock keepers. Entry-level tractors cost around $4,000.

“It’s very good news,” says Mr Singh, whose organisation aims to dispel the image of backwardness associated with camel ownership and tries to promote higher economic returns for breeders. “We had started to see camels, even female ones, being slaughtered for their meat. Now they are replacing the tractor again.”

Ah yes, Mr. Singh, that is very good news indeed.

"the league for pastoral peoples"? "even-toed ungulates"? "little more than a goat, which is nothing"?


People, India and Camels is comedy gold.

Who are bigger hypocrites than us?

Global warming, oil imported from terror-supporting countries, food shortages and rising food prices. All of which we profess to be against or trying to remedy. Yet we continue to place a $.54 per gallon tariff on Brazilian ethanol made from sugar cane to "protect" our corn based ethanol even though (1) Brazil is our friend and (2) sugar based ethanol is way more efficiently produced in Brazil than what we can do with corn here. Yet we continue to cynically and despicably talk on the side of the angels but act on the side of evil. Some of our presidential candidates are also cynically proposing a gas tax holiday to help with high prices (or to help avoid reality in an election year?)

In our government, lying and pandering are in our so commonplace that I don't think anyone in Washington really gives any of this a second thought. The only way I see to change this mess to (1) have national primaries (2) abolish the Senate.

Calling the bottom; or the sky is not falling.

All is not well in the USA. Gas and food prices are high, our presidential candidates are less than scintillating, the Suns are out of the playoffs, and our educational system is failing a significant chunk of our citizens.

But maybe, just maybe, common sense will start to prevail and the hysteria over "financial meldowns" and "deep protracted recessions" will now quiet down at least a few decibels.

Many troubled financial firms have re-capitalized and financial markets seem to have stabilized. A recession of any type has not, to date, been uncovered. Job losses continue but the April numbers are quite a bit less bad than the previous two months. The unemployment rate is 5%.

America has a lot of problems, but a deep extended recession does not appear to be one of them. Somehow we (me included) consistently underestimate the resiliency of our still mainly free market economy.

Of course one big downside to a lessening of the business cycle apocalypse meme is that it will lead directly to an equi-proportionate increase in inequality hysteria.

This is a direct application of Will Self's "quantity theory of insanity" which posits that whenever insanity falls in one dimension, it rises in another.

WWAD? Would he cheat on an Ethics Test?

Two Southern Illinois University professors have settled a lawsuit they filed after the state said they flunked a mandatory online ethics test because they finished too quickly.
Marvin Zeman and Walter Wallis will both get credit for completing the test they took in 2006. The state Office of Inspector General invalidated their test results, saying the two did not spend enough time on the ethics material.
“I’ve taken this test now three or four times. It was only (in 2006) that there was this nonsense of a time limit,” said Zeman who is president of the faculty association at SIU in Carbondale.
State employees are required to take an annual ethics test that consists of reading
material followed by a series of questions. There are 80-90 computer screen pages of material to review.

Now, what would Angus do, if he were told he had cheated on an ethics test?

ATSRTWT

(nod to Mr. Overwater)

The Economics of Andrew Bird

there's one guy I'd like to thank
he signs the checks and leaves them blank
he's the one
he says you don't have to walk a plank
the game is rigged, go fig your
slide show tanked
and your flagship sank

so we're taking all our myths to the bank
so just don't forget who to thank
we're taking our myths to the
drinking a fifth to the
we're taking all our myths to the bank

if you could just do him this favor
although it might involve child labor
join his entourage
give him a foot massage
from Star Search to the Philharmonic
he'll get you there with Hooked on Phonics
he's the one to know
doesn't matter if you blow - no no

deals in commodities of the abstract sort
buys them in bulk but sells them short
talent, genius. love even signs of affection
he floods the market there's no price protection
and when his master plan is unfurled
there stands a handsome bid on the weather systems of the world

(from "Banking on a Myth" off "The Mysterious Production of Eggs")

Final Exam for "American Values and Institutions" Course

Below is the final for the Aldrich-Munger taught course, "American Values and Institutions," PS112A.

The kids had to answer some three of the five questions, their choice.
Afterwards, three kids had editorial comments:
a. "I hate you, and I always will."
b. "I can't feel anything, including my fingers."
c. "Somewhere in the second hour of the exam, I was struck by just how much I had learned this semester."

The exam, for your amusement:

1. Assume that you are a member of a three person committee with the following preferences over the set of outcomes (x, y, z):

(First,Second,Third) Rank in preference order
Person I (you) x y z

Person II y z x

Person III z x y

a. This committee decides by comparing two alternatives (akin to a bill and a proposed amendment) with the majority rule winner in the first vote pitted against the remaining alternative. The majority winner from that second vote is the overall winner. Remembering that you are "Person 1," suppose you got to choose which two alternatives are pitted against each other, with the winner in that comparison then being voted up or down for final passage against the remaining alternative that goes against the winner. What agenda, or sequence of pairwise comparisons, would you choose?

b. Now, suppose that you suddenly become, through some odd transubstantiation of mind/soul, Person II. How would you vote, assuming that the agenda you laid out in your answer to a is held fixed? What would be the outcome? That is, which alternative should win?

c. Finally, suppose that the transubstantiation happens again, and your mind/soul returns to its original body, Person I. Having inhabited Person II briefly, you know what Person II is going to do. Do you change the agenda you picked for item a above?

2. The political thought well-known to the American Founders had a variety of perspectives on the nature of the state, and the obligations of the individual to the state. Summarize what you see as the primary thinkers in the "collectivist" (focusing on the state, and the federal government) tradition in the political thought before 1830, and the primary thinkers of the "individualist" tradition (focusing on private rights, and local government). Make sure and mention at least two of each. Which set of values, collectivist or individualist, does the American Constitution come closer to embodying?


3. Consider the following analogy: Condorcet's Paradox is to Majority Rule as Arrow's Theorem is to the Set of All Voting Rules. Can we really say that one set of rules is better than another, given this problem? Is the American system of elections, with two major parties, better than other systems because it is more stable? Or is it rigid? How could you evaluate a political system, except by comparing it to other systems in terms of stability and survival? How does the U.S. system solve the problem of instability, using a "first past the post" electoral system, and "one issue at a time" procedures in the legislature?

4. Property. What is the role of property, and protection of property rights, in the institutions created by the American Founding? What is the basis of the claim of individuals to "own" property? How did the Founders adapt this notion of property to extend to the ownership of other human beings?

5. One of the key problems that any set of institutions, or any social movement, must overcome is the collective action problem. In many of the things we read, including Aldrich's "Why Parties?", King's "Letter from a Birmingham Jail," Walker's "Appeal," and others, the collective action problem was central to the concerns of the writer. And, collective action problems in taxation and military coordination were central to the change from the Articles of Confederation to the Constitution. Why is the collective action problem so hard to solve? Is the only solution to the collective problem to use "Madisonian" institutional incentives? Or is it possible to cajole and persuade people to act collectively on their own, as a "Rousseauvian" approach might suggest?

Just this one last time and I swear I'll never do it again.

Our text today is a phrase commonly uttered by:

Alcoholics, Pyromaniacs, Philanderers, and the US Fed Chairman?


Don't get me wrong, I think Bernanke and the Fed have done a great job addressing the credit freeze by expanding liquidity, taking shakier paper for collateral, opening the discount window wider, and yes even by having a hand in the Bear-Sterns sale (though this last achievement I agree is debatable).

However, the rate-cutting is just plain out of hand. The dollar is shot, commodity prices soaring, inflation is over 4%, the markets have been calmed, but the Fed is gonna cut the funds rate again.

Why?

"Hi, I'm Ben and I'm addicted to negative short term interest rates"? probably not.

I honestly think this is another paradoxical case of the Fed caving in to political pressure in order to save its vaunted independence.

Dude, I Can't Find My Probable Cause

A most excellent story, and video.



Q: Don't the cops have anything better to do?
A: No.

(Nod to Alex H)

Letting Slept Dogs Lie

Someone from Romania came to the KPC site through this search on GOOGLE:

"Cry havoc and let slept the dogs of war..."

I guess if you should let slept dogs lie, you shouldn't cry "havoc!" I hope GWBush reads this.