Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Angus and Mungowitz: Another Convert

My lovely Ms. Mungowitz was throwing away what was left of a pecan pie, leftover from Easter celebrations.

As she put the aluminum pie pan in the garbage, she sang, loudly: "Bye, bye, Miss Pecah-ahn pie, drove my Chevy to the levy....."

And then slammed the trash lid and looked at me in horror. "You....you and Angus....look what you have DONE to me!"

Angus, Mungowitz, and singing songs to the garbage: Always representing.

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Some Books....

Apropos of exactly nothing, here are some books I have read in the last year that I really, really liked. Not all came OUT in the last year, by a long shot. And some were rereads. Still....they made me happy.

William Bernstein, THE BIRTH OF PLENTY and A SPLENDID EXCHANGE

Brian Doherty, RADICAL FOR CAPITALISM

David Hume, ESSAYS: MORAL, POLITICAL, AND LITERARY

Jean Smith, JOHN MARSHALL: DEFINER OF A NATION

Jared Diamond, COLLAPSE and GUNS, GERMS, AND STEEL

Joseph Ellis, HIS EXCELLENCY: GEORGE WASHINGTON

Paul Blustein, AND THE MONEY KEPT ROLLING IN (AND OUT): ...the Bankrupting of Argentina

Marc Levinson, THE BOX: HOW THE SHIPPING CONTAINER MADE THE WORLD SMALLER....

John MacMillan, REINVENTING THE BAZAAR: A NATURAL HISTORY OF MARKETS

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You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up....

At first, I thought that Stephen Karlson, at C.S.S., was kidding. Outspoken support...for the pirates?

Then, I thought it must be a hoax. I mean....can this guy be serious? Mr. Scahill shares this tidbit, about the "Somali Coast Guard":

As one “pirate” said, “The French and the Americans will regret starting this killing. We do not kill, but take only ransom. We shall do something to anyone we see as French or American from now.” Another added, “As long as there is no just government in Somalia, we will still be the coast guard… If we get an American, we will take revenge.” (Note that "pirate" is in scare quotes, original in Scahill)

The way I see it, there are four issues:

1. Are these guys pirates? Is there any other conceivable description of their actions, tactics, and treatment of prisoners / ships?

2. Was the U.S. justified to use deadly force to free the captain of Maersk Alabama?

3. Was the U.S. wise to end the stalemate in this way?

4. Are the "pirates" (to use Scahill's air quotes, notwithstanding the answer to #1 above) justified in using violence and kidnapping to air the legitimate grievances of an oppressed people?

Answers:

1. Absolutely. No, no other explanation. These guys are pirates. Anyone who would put quotes around the word "pirates" in this context is criminally insane.

2. Absolutely. A pirate caught in the act of piracy, and holding a hostage at gunpoint, has zero claim to due process. And if the guy getting medical treatment wants to say that it was unfair to fool him like that, that they had a deal, what about the Pirate's Code?....Well, I'd amend Captain Barbossa's answer: "First, your return to shore was not part of our negotiations nor our agreement so I must do nothing. And secondly, one must be a pirate for the pirate's code to apply and we're not. And thirdly, the code is more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules. Welcome aboard the Bainbridge...."

3. A legitimate question. I don't know the answer. I lean toward "yes," but Scahill may have some real arguments on the "no" side. Of course, I can't tell that, since he chose not to make any of those points.

4. Are you kidding me? You want to blame international shipping companies for the hell hole that is Somalia? One can have sympathy for the generation of young men growing up without law, or hope. But you can't seriously say that that justifies piracy, any more than poverty in Appalachia or Cleveland justifies armed robbery.

Yikes.

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BHO got a PWD from EMK (and it's OK)

Me and Mungowitz love us some mutts. We got Pluto from the Norman pound the day we moved there. Hobo and Tanzi are both rescue dogs. But people, it's OK to get a purebred dog if you want to. I am amazed by the fact that Obama's dog choice is getting so much ink and whining. I am further amazed that the breeder who sold Joe Biden a german shepherd pup has allegedly received death threats!

These pics make me like BHO and gabby Joe more than I used to, no matter what kind of dogs they chose:



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Inspecting the mechanism

In a recent municipal election in Lexington OK, Marion McWhirter and Max Punneo saw their battle for the city council end in a tie (53-53). Neither man (and yes I have that right) chose to contest the vote:

"Though Punneo -- and McWhirter -- were offered the opportunity to contest the election and ask for a recount, Punneo said the $300 cost would have factored to about $3 per person. "There was no need for that, really," he said."

So how was the tie resolved?

"With a handful of election officials and media representatives watching, Lexington's incumbent city councilman Marion McWhirter held on to his seat Monday when his name was successfully drawn from a decorated hat box by Cleveland County Election Board Secretary Paula Roberts."

WTF, you ask??

""We're following the election law," Roberts said".

I wonder what the law says exactly. Does it specify using a hat box? A decorated hat box? Does it speak to the style of the decorations?

Oh and one more thing: Norm Coleman, you have a phone call!



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I'm a sucker for these

I am a sucker for these rehearsed/spontaneous dance takeovers of public spaces.


But then, I really really like to dance, myself. Often when I first get out of the shower.

(Nod to the Bishop, who doesn't dance so much, but is happy that other people do.)

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Monday, April 13, 2009

Pole-dancing for Jesus?

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Darwin WIn!!


At the Berlin Zoo recently, a 32 year old woman "climbed down a fence, over a wide hedge full of thorns and got past a concrete wall before swan diving into the murky moat where the polar bears swim." There were 4 adult polar bears in the area.

The woman is now in intensive care after some keepers fished her out.

The zoo says it doesn't plan to change its security measures. I agree. People like this should not be protected from their stupidity.

Here is a video link which shows the keepers trying to fish her out of the moat. The bears seem to just be playing with her!






Hat tip to the Eco Sista!

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A Coffee Shop Review

A coffee shop review, by KPC pal Paul Gowder.

I couldn't find a part to excerpt. It is a perfect
organic whole. As long as the organic hole is only used
for #1.

Crime and Law

The Laws of Lawlessness

Peter Leeson, Journal of Legal Studies, forthcoming

Abstract:
According to conventional wisdom, self-governance cannot facilitate order between the members of different social groups. This is considered doubly true for the members of social groups that are avowed enemies of one another. This paper argues that it can. To investigate my hypothesis, I examine the Anglo-Scottish borderlands in the 16th century. The border people belonged to two separate social groups at constant war with one another. These people pillaged, plundered, and raided one another as a way of life they called "reiving." To regulate this system of inter-group banditry and prevent it from degenerating into chaos, border inhabitants developed a decentralized system of cross-border criminal law called the Leges Marchiarum. These "laws of lawlessness" governed all aspects of cross-border interaction and spawned novel institutions of their enforcement including "days of truce," bonds, "bawling," and "trod." The Leges Marchiarum and its institutions of enforcement created a unique, decentralized legal order that governed inter-group relations between hostiles along the border.

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Arrest Avoidance: Law Enforcement and the Price of Cocaine

Beth Freeborn, Journal of Law and Economics, February 2009, Pages 19-40

Abstract:
Contrary to one goal of drug law enforcement, cocaine prices decreased between the years 1986 and 2000. This paper discusses how arrest avoidance behavior may affect cocaine consumer and dealer response to law enforcement. Dealers avoid arrest by making quick and easy sales; thus, pure-gram price is negatively related to dealer enforcement. Consumers avoid arrest by accepting high prices rather than searching for lower prices. Thus, pure-gram price is positively related to consumer enforcement. Because the implications from arrest avoidance conflict with traditional models of how enforcement should affect prices, I also empirically examine the relationship. Using purchase-level data from the Drug Enforcement Administration and legal penalty data, I find a negative, significant relationship between dealer enforcement and pure-gram price and a positive, significant relationship between consumer enforcement and pure-gram price. Both are consistent with the intuition of arrest avoidance.

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Income Inequality and Pecuniary Crimes

Luiz Guilherme Scorzafave & Milena Karla Soares, Economics Letters, forthcoming

Abstract:
This paper verifies the relationship between income inequality and pecuniary crimes. The elasticity of pecuniary crimes relative to inequality is 1.46, corroborating previous literature. Other factors important to decrease criminality are expanding job opportunities and a more efficient legal system.

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Shoplifting, Monitoring and Price Determination

Gideon Yaniv, Journal of Socio-Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
Shoplifting is a major crime problem costing American retailers more than $10 billion per year. Surprisingly, despite the evolvement of an extensive theoretical literature on the economics of some major economic crimes, shoplifting has failed to attract economists’ attention. The present paper applies the economic toolbox to this problem, developing a principal-agent type model of shoplifting and shoplifting control. The model examines the customer's decision of whether to shoplift or not as well as the store's profit-maximizing price and monitoring intensity. The paper challenges the conventional wisdom that the observed rise in shoplifting calls for intensified monitoring and higher prices, showing that a rational response to increased shoplifting involves a reduction in both monitoring and prices.

(Nod to Kevin L)

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Why Do We Need the BBC?

The BBC asks the question, "Why Do We Need Growth?"

economic growth may be a necessary condition for the relief of poverty and can be desirable for middle- and high-income people too, it is not enough on its own. Governments and society need to be judged on so much more than simply whether their economies are growing.

So I ask, "Why Do We Need the BBC?" To be fair, many people say they would pay voluntarily. Well, let's make the BBC optional, and find out.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Hillary, uncut!



The phrase "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton" still cracks me up.

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Saturday, April 11, 2009

In the belly of the beast

This past Friday, me and Mrs. Angus stopped off on our way home from work to get haircuts (yes we have the same stylist!!). I went first, then waited for Mrs. A while playing a game on my phone. About halfway through Mrs. A's cut a woman with 4 young children came in. The kids starting running up and down the salon, the woman hugged our stylist and said she was here to commemorate the 8th anniversary of our stylist first cutting her hair. The other stylist in the shop (who was processing an impressive assembly line of elderly ladies from shampoo to cut to baking in curlers to getting their "up do") started erecting a barrier of japanese style screens between her work station and the family. As the kids kept running around the woman kept yakking to our stylist while Mrs. A sat bemusedly in the chair. The woman gave our stylist homemade anniversary cookies and seemed completely oblivious to the fact that the other stylist was barricading herself in like a French CEO. 

After what seemed like forever, the woman herded up the kids and left. And our stylist gave us the dish. She claimed she hadn't cut the woman's hair for over two years but that every good Friday the woman shows up with hugs and cookies and more kids and imagined stories about her time in the salon! The other stylist piped up from behind the wall of screens that "someone should get their tubes tied" (I'm pretty sure she didn't mean me).

So, after pencilling in good Friday 2010 as a firm haircut appointment with our stylist, we checked to see if the coast was clear and went home.

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Friday, April 10, 2009

Hey, Joker: Recycle Me THIS

In which I enter the cubicles of recycling worshippers, and do battle.

Not sure I'll be able to go back to Canada, now.

Just like I can't go back to Australia.

The original provocation, a while back now....

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Be careful what you wish for

You know what I really miss and would like to have back? Two things: (1) a big-ass trade deficit and (2) hordes of illegal immigrants arriving. That would be great, wouldn't it?

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This is a good 'un!



People, Abdala Bucaram is the gift that keeps on giving. Check out this separated at birth pair:

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Freaky Friday

some news you might have missed.....

1. Isn't Grandma toasty?

2. Florida man goes all French on us, protests high prices...of crack!

3. It it's a hard test, I hope he doesn't advertise handguns....

4. This can't be equilibrium, right?

5. Upset with his fiance´'s meatball sandwich (the placement of the cheese, in particular, was all wrong), Lyndel Toppin allegedly attacked her with a kitchen knife. A law enforcement official tells Philly.com, "Wait until he gets a load of the prison food."

Um...Lyndel, wait until you see where your new prison roomy, "Boomer," wants to place the cheese.

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Thursday, April 09, 2009

The wonders of Latin American Politics

As I was reflecting on how Alberto Fujimori went from hero to zero in Peru, I saw a news story that Evo Morales was going on a hunger strike to force the legislature to set a firm date for his next election. And I thought to myself, (a) that's crazy, but not unprecedented, and (b) it won't last for long. I then remembered Carlos Salinas going on a hunger strike after his brother's arrest. That one lasted around 45 minutes or so IIRC. Even Vladimir Montesinos went on a prison hunger strike. He allegedly made it 9 days before quitting, though our Peruvian friend and co-author Rodolfo said that the guards were sneaking him candy bars the whole time!

As I now reflected on crazy in Latin American politics, my mind flashed to Abdala Buraram who had a cup of coffee as president of Ecuador before being shown the door due to mental deficiency (I am not making this up).

Then people, I struck gold: photos of Bucaram and Fujimori (a Lebanese guy and an Japanese guy eating cuy together while wearing traditional Andean indigenous outfits. Feast your eyes:





and by cuy, I mean your children's pet hamsters!

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Who doesn't?

In Colorado a tofu loving woman's vanity license plate has been banned. How can this be, you ask? Well, here is the exact text of the plate:

ILVTOFU

Yikes!!


Hey, maybe we could all chip in and buy a similar plate for Tim Geithner! I hear he has a birthday coming up.

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Love and Marriage

New Slants on the Slippery Slope: The Politics of Polygamy and Gay Family
Rights in South Africa and the United States

Judith Stacey & Tey Meadow, Politics & Society, forthcoming

Abstract:
This article investigates the often cited and dismissed, but rarely examined, relationship between legalizing same-sex marriage and polygamy. Employing a comparative historical analysis of U.S. and South African jurisprudence, ideology, and cultural politics, we examine efforts to expand, restrict, and regulate the gender and number of legally recognized conjugal bonds. South African family jurisprudence grants legal recognition to both same-sex marriage and polygyny, while the United States prohibits and resists both. However, social and material conditions make it easier to practice family diversity in the U.S. than in South Africa. Our analysis of the very different histories of polygamy and same-sex marriage in the two societies suggests the centrality of racial politics to marriage regimes, yielding paradoxical narratives about the implications of legal same-sex marriage for the future of polygamy and sexual democracy. If there is a slippery marital slope, we argue, it does not tilt in a singular or expected direction.

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Anthropometry of Love: Height and Gender Asymmetries in Interethnic
Marriages

Michèle Belot & Jan Fidrmuc, Oxford Working Paper, January 2009

Abstract:
Both in the UK and in the US, we observe puzzling gender asymmetries in the propensity to outmarry: Black men are substantially more likely to have white spouses than Black women, but the opposite is true for Chinese: Chinese men are half less likely to be married to a White person than Chinese women. We argue that differences in height distributions, combined with a simple preference for a taller husband, can explain a large proportion of these ethnic-specific gender asymmetries. Blacks are taller than Asians, and we argue that this significantly affects their marriage prospects with whites. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis using data from the Health Survey for England and the Millenium Cohort Study, which contains valuable and unique information on heights of married couples.

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New Evidence of Genetic Factors Influencing Sexual Orientation in Men:
Female Fecundity Increase in the Maternal Line

Francesca Iemmola & Andrea Camperio Ciani, Archives of Sexual Behavior, June 2009, Pages 393-399

Abstract:
There is a long-standing debate on the role of genetic factors influencing homosexuality because the presence of these factors contradicts the Darwinian prediction according to which natural selection should progressively eliminate the factors that reduce individual fecundity and fitness. Recently, however, Camperio Ciani, Corna, and Capiluppi (Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences, 271, 2217–2221, 2004), comparing the family trees of homosexuals with heterosexuals, reported a significant increase in fecundity in the females related to the homosexual probands from the maternal line but not in those related from the paternal one. This suggested that genetic factors that are partly linked to the X-chromosome and that influence homosexual orientation in males are not selected against because they increase fecundity in female carriers, thus offering a solution to the Darwinian paradox and an explanation of why natural selection does not progressively eliminate homosexuals. Since then, new data have emerged suggesting not only an increase in maternal fecundity but also larger paternal family sizes for homosexuals. These results are partly conflicting and indicate the need for a replication on a wider sample with a larger geographic distribution. This study examined the family trees of 250 male probands, of which 152 were homosexuals. The results confirmed the study of Camperio Ciani et al. (2004). We observed a significant fecundity increase even in primiparous mothers, which was not evident in the previous study. No evidence of increased paternal fecundity was found; thus, our data confirmed a sexually antagonistic inheritance partly linked to the X-chromosome that promotes fecundity in females and a homosexual sexual orientation in males.

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Automatic inattention to attractive alternatives: The evolved psychology of
relationship maintenance

Jon Maner, David Aaron Rouby & Gian Gonzaga, Evolution and Human Behavior, September 2008, Pages 343-349

Abstract:
There can be important reproductive benefits to maintaining a long-term romantic relationship. As a result, humans may possess evolved psychological mechanisms designed to help them maintain their commitment to a long-term mate, particularly when faced with attractive alternative relationship partners. The current study identifies a relationship maintenance process that involves being inattentive to alternative relationship partners. Experimentally eliciting thoughts and feelings of romantic love — an emotion thought to have evolved for the purpose of relationship maintenance — reduced attention to alternative partners at an early, automatic stage of visual perception. Consistent with evolutionary models of mate selection, this reduction in attention was observed only for opposite sex targets displaying high levels of physical attractiveness. This research illustrates the utility of integrating evolutionary models of mating with theory and method from cognitive science.
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(Nod to Kevin L)

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Flattery will get you Everywhere!

According to Bankling.com, we are a "top 50 economics blog". Here's what they say about us:

Kids Prefer Cheese: A wildly popular tongue-in-cheek yet deadly serious look at economics, politics and the underbelly of life in general. Brought to you by Professors Munger (Duke University) and Grier (University of Oklahoma).

Yikes!

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when maps collide

This guy's maps say that Oklahomans are tops in "agreeableness" and "conscientiousness"

Ok, but...

This guy's map says Oklahoma will be the last State to approve gay marriage.

WTF??

At the anecdotal level, I live in Oklahoma and I am not especially agreeable, only irregularly conscientious, and favor gay marriage.

double WTF???

Hey, maybe I live in the wrong place!!

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Jump Around

Not all of you have seen Danny Green do the pregame Jump Around dance.

And you need to.

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The ultimate counter-cyclical asset?

Jelly!! It says so right here!

a snippet:


"we've already seen some phenomenal growth from companies like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (: gmc), which saw sales in its fiscal first quarter surge 56 percent to $197 million from year-ago levels, while J.M. Smuckers (NYSE: sjm) saw an 84 percent jump in its earnings in its fiscal third quarter.

Smuckers may truly be in the sweet spot of this trend. The company not only makes Smuckers jellies and Jif peanut butter, but it recently bought Folgers coffee, which Smuckers says, could double its annual sales."


If jelly is too expensive, one can always try this (which is probably an even better counter-cyclical asset).

Hat tip to LeBron for the meme!

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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Bob Lucas on the fiscal multiplier

"Question: On the one extreme, we have models by people like Mark Zandi at Moody's who say that the fiscal multiplier for the spending initiatives we're discussing are on the order of 1.5. On the other hand, we have people like Robert Barro at Harvard who say there's zero or negative. How would you go about applying the Lucas critique to these types of models to sort of educate us in how we should think about the validity of these models?

LUCAS: Do I need the Lucas critique for -- I'm with Barro is the short answer. (Laughter.) The Moody's model that Christina Romer -- here's what I think happened. It's her first day on the job and somebody says, you've got to come up with a solution to this -- in defense of this fiscal stimulus, which no one told her what it was going to be, and have it by Monday morning.

So she scrambled and came up with these multipliers and now they're kind of -- I don't know. So I don't think anyone really believes. These models have never been discussed or debated in a way that that say -- Ellen McGrattan was talking about the way economists use models this morning. These are kind of schlock economics.

Maybe there is some multiplier out there that we could measure well but that's not what that paper does. I think it's a very naked rationalization for policies that were already, you know, decided on for other reasons. I don't -- I'd like to talk about the Lucas critique but I don't -- I don't think we can -- (chuckles) -- deal with that issue. "


LOL, I wonder if Christy R. got the license plate of that bus as it ran over her. The whole transcript of Lucas' talk is here.

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India fact of the day

"The basic marriage rule in Hindu society is that no individual is permitted to marry outside the sub-caste or jati. Social mobility will be severely restricted by this rule because individuals are forced to match within a very narrow pool. Social mobility, as measured by inter-caste marriage, continues to be low in rural India despite the economic changes within and across castes that have taken place over the past decades. Recent surveys in rural and urban India that the authors have conducted indicate that among 25-40 year olds, out-marriage was 7.6% in Mumbai in 2001, 6.2% in South Indian tea plantations in 2003, and 5.8% for the rural Indian population in 16 major states of India in 1999."

This from a fascinating new NBER working paper by Munshi & Rosenzweig.

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Fujimori verdict due today


These folks have already made up their minds!

UPDATE!!!!! And they were right in as much as Fujimori was indeed convicted:

"A special tribunal convicted former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori of murder and kidnapping on Tuesday for death squad activities during his 10-year rule during the 1990s.

"This court declares that all four charges have been proven behind all reasonable doubt," presiding judge Cesar San Martin told a hushed courtroom.

There was no question, he said, that the 70-year-old Fujimori authorized the creation of a military death squad that killed some 50 people.

Fujimori apparently anticipated a guilty verdict. He sat alone taking notes as the verdict was read after a 15-month televised trial.

He faces a maximum of 30 years in prison and the court was expected to issue a sentence later Tuesday after a full reading of the sentence.

Fujimori is the first democratically elected former president to be tried for rights violations in his own country. His lawyers have said he would appeal the verdict."



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Monday, April 06, 2009

Oh My God: They Killed Kuttner


YOU BASTARDS!!!



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The Epitome of Spurtability?

WWAD?

Clark Kellogg just said that UNC is the "Epitome of Spurtability."

What would Angus do?

He would sing this, I think, and make Pluto go out into the hallway.

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A weak mind is easily confused

1. Virtually all press reports are calling BHO's visit to Turkey his "first trip to a Muslim country". Is that true? Isn't Turkey a secular democracy, at least in theory? Wouldn't Attaturk be spinning in his grave if he could hear this?


2. If the state of Oklahoma is so homophobic, why does OU have a "Gaylord College"? Heck we even have an organization called the "Gaylord Ambassadors"!


3. Why are grown men trying to play baseball when it's cold and snowy? It was 37 in Cincinnati, 42 in St. Louis and the White Sox home opener was postponed due to snow.

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Dear Wacko:

So I got the following email spam, from an address in Zaire:

The saluation, "Dear Wacko", is probably accurate in my case. But I doubt that it is effective for the purpose the spammer has in mind.

Dear Wacko, From Mr. Williams Johnson,Consultant/Agen

Nettie Lee The Undersigned, Mr. Ernest Ansah, Managing Director of Doncan Gold Company Ltd, licensed small scale mining company, with head office in Accra, Ghana, licensed under company code 1963 (Act 179) of the Republic of Ghana. We confirm with full corporate responsibility and legal authority do hereby make this Full Corporate Offer attesting that we have 500 Kilograms of alluvial Gold particles, and we do have the legal authority to sell same as hereinafter reflected, under penalty of perjury our ability to supply the said product. (Alluvial Gold Dust and Bars).
PRODUCT:Gold Dust/Bars QUANTITY: 300/500kg
PURITY: 99.95% or better ASSAY: Final assay to be made by Buyer's choice of refinery,
LOCATION: Ghana West Africa INSPECTION: Ghana West Africa
PACKING: Export Package Boxes/Bars SELLING PRICE: USD$18,500.00/kg Negotiable
PAYMENT: EURO or USD by SWIFT Wire Transfer

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Saturday, April 04, 2009

The horror that is Mary Fallin

"For what purpose does the gentlelady from Oklahoma rise?"

"Mr. Speaker, I rise to make an ass of myself"

"The gentlelady is recognized for 5 minutes"

I recently posted about the amazingly ignorant response of many US Representatives about the notion of the dollar being replaced as the major reserve currency in the world. They responded with a resolution calling for a constitutional amendment that would disallow a foreign currency replacing the dollar as LEGAL TENDER in the USA. Oooops!

Anyway Mary Fallin is a co-sponsor of this resolution. It isn't the first weird, nut-jobby deal she's co-sponsored either . Remember Ron Paul's "issue" of how NAFTA was going to create a superhighway across the USA from Mexico to Canada? She co-sponsored the resolution Rep. Virgil Goode introduced against that clear and present danger to the body politic back in 07.

According to ace political blogger Brendan Nyhan, only 12 representatives share the dubious distinction of co-sponsoring both of these gems of legislation and our Mary is one of them. We are so proud!

Here is the full hall of shame:

Michelle Bachmann (R-MN)
Spencer Bachus (R-AL)
Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD)
Paul Broun (R-GA)
John Culberson (R-TX)
Mary Fallin (R-OK)
Virginia Foxx (R-NC)
Trent Franks (R-AZ)
Phil Gingrey (R-GA)
Darrell Issa (R-CA)
Walter Jones (R-NC)
Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI)
Ron Paul (R-TX)
Zach Wamp (R-TN)

People, can this be real?? Zach Wamp?? Thaddeus McCotter??? Roscoe Bartlett?? Is this the US Congress or the Dukes of Hazard??

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Remembering Gordon Tullock

I got an email from Pete Boettke asking me for a contribution to a "booklet of fond remembrances" that he is putting together to honor Gordon. Here is my remembrance:

I first met Gordon when, as a new PhD candidate, I went on a job interview at GMU (it helps the story to remember that this was 1984, pre-Google, y’all!). I began my seminar with a discussion of why my topic was interesting/important, and then moved to a literature review. When I finished the review, Gordon raised his hand and asked “Is that it?” I replied that while I had all of my own work yet to talk about, that, yes, that was it for the lit review. To which Gordon said, “Well then we may as well stop the seminar right now because you don’t even know the literature in your own field. You are completely ignoring the most important paper”. Yikes!! About a million thoughts race through my mind and I decide to go humble and see what happens, so I say that I’m very sorry for the omission, and would he please give me the citation to the paper so that I could find it and incorporate it into my work. Gordon’s answer was this: “The paper is in my desk drawer, it was submitted to Public Choice last week”. To which I replied “Man, I am so dumb, of course any good literature review should start in Gordon’s drawers.” I got the job, and Gordon was always a strong (though sarcastic) supporter of me and my work.



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Saturday poetry corner

I know we're gonna meet someday in the crumbled financial institutions of this land
There will be tables and chairs
Pony rides and dancing bears
There'll even be a band
'cause listen after the fall there'll be no more countries
No currencies at all
We're gonna live on our wits
Throw away survival kits
Trade butterfly knives for adderal
And that's not all
Woah!
There will be snacks, there will
There will be snacks!

--Andrew Bird, 2005

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Friday, April 03, 2009

She blinded me with science....

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Best April fool's blogpost of the year!

It's right here people, and it's comedy gold.

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Thursday, April 02, 2009

Ward Churchill "wins"


The ex CU Professor "won" his wrongful dismissal case against the University, which after deciding they couldn't directly fire him because of his 9/11 "little Eichmanns" essay, fired him later on some various academic misconduct charges they dug up.

I put won in quotes because Ward was awarded $1 in damages.

Ward said that he didn't ask for money and was happy, but his attorney had asked the jury to send a message via a monetary judgment against the University.

There is another hearing coming to see if Churchill will get his job back.

Is this a great country, or what?

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Bling: yer doin' it wrong

at least if you're a devil/vampire cat:

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New Keynesian Macro in graphs!

In honor our our current posterboy (Larry Meyer), I am happy to blog about a new NBER working paper by Pierpaolo Benigno titled "New Keynesian Economics: An AS-AD View".

Sadly I can't find an ungated version, so I will quote at length from the introduction:

This work presents a simple New-Keynesian model illustrated by Aggregate Demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply (AS) graphical analysis. In its simplicity, the framework features most of the main characteristics emphasized in the recent literature. The AD and AS equations are derived from an intertemporal model of optimizing behavior by households and firms respectively.

The AD equation is derived from households’ decisions on intertemporal consumption allocation. A standard Euler equation links consumption growth to the real interest rate, implying a negative correlation between prices and consumption. A rise in the current price level increases the real interest rate and induces consumers to postpone consumption. Current consumption falls.

The AS equation derives from the pricing decisions of optimizing firms. In the
long run, prices are totally flexible and output depends only on real structural factors. The equation is vertical. In the short run, however, a fraction of firms keep prices fixed at a predetermined level, implying a positive relationship between other firms’ prices, which are not constrained, and marginal costs, proxied by the output gap. The AS equation is a positively sloped price-output function.

As in Keynesian theory, the model posits some degree of short-run nominal rigidity. Nominal rigidity can be explained by the fact that price setters have some monopoly power, so that they incur only second-order costs when they do not change their prices. In the long run, the model maintains the classical dichotomy between the determination of nominal and real variables, with a vertical AS equation.

The analysis is consistent with the modern central banking practice of targeting
short-term nominal interest rates, not money supply aggregates. The mechanism of transmission of interest rate movements to consumption and output stems from the intertemporal behavior of the consumers. By moving the nominal interest rate, monetary policy affects the real interest rate, hence consumption-saving decisions.

This simple framework allows us to analyze the impact of productivity or mark-up
disturbances on economic activity and to study alternative monetary and fiscal policies. In particular, we can analyze how monetary policy should respond to various shocks. That is, a microfounded model yields a natural objective function that monetary policy could follow in its stabilization role, namely the utility of consumers. This objective is well approximated by a quadratic loss function in which policymakers are penalized, with certain weights, by deviating from a price-stability target and at the same time by the fluctuations of output around the efficient level. In the AS-AD graphical plot, optimal policy simplifies to just an additional curve (labelled IT for “Inflation Targeting”)

seems pretty cool. Here is an interesting tidbit given our current policy debates:

The impact of the fiscal multipliers on output and the output gap can be quantified showing that a short-run increase in public spending has a multiplier less than one on output and a much smaller multiplier on the output gap.

Uh-oh!

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Reason #37 to abolish the IMF

Because then we wouldn't have to put up with this foolishness:

"Irrational Exuberance in the Housing Market: Were Evangelicals left behind?" is a 30 page official IMF working paper vetted and approved for distribution by the IMF bureaucracy.

It's just so awesome:

The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population— evangelical protestants—that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals’ focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular
internet measure of “prophetic activity” and a 9/11 event study.

Look, I know college professors write weird papers; I once wrote a piece (with Bob Tollison) titled "Arbitrage in a Basketball Economy"! But we were trying to make an economic point, namely that managerial tenure was tied to performance in the NBA, so probably it was in the "real world" as well. We used the NBA because we thought it was possible to measure managerial performance there (by how shots were allocated).

What is the possible policy implication of this study? That we needed a lot more evangelicals in Las Vegas and Miami and Phoenix? That we should all learn how to speak in tongues? To me the obvious policy implication is that we should ABOLISH THE IMF!!!


Hat tip to LeBron!





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Conficker worm victim #1

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Just when you think they've hit bottom

our friends in the government come up with something even worse.

Here representing the latest in scary cluelessness is Rep Michelle Bachman (R, Minn), who after hearing talk about the dollar being replaced as an international reserve currency by SDR's, has introduced a resolution in the House to "bar the dollar from being replaced by any foreign currency."

I am NOT making this up! It's from her own website:

“Yesterday, during a Financial Services Committee hearing, I asked Secretary Geithner if he would denounce efforts to move towards a global currency and he answered unequivocally that he would," said Bachmann. "And President Obama gave the nation the same assurances. But just a day later, Secretary Geithner has left the option on the table. I want to know which it is. The American people deserve to know."

Asked today about a currency proposal from China at a Council on Foreign Relations event, Secretary Geithner stated he was open to supporting it. Despite attempts to clarify his remarks later in the day, the unguarded initial response calls into question his true intentions.

Thank you Rep. Bachman. I will sleep more soundly tonight knowing you are on the alert to protect America.


Hat tip to Jon Dingel.



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Who's your daddy?

This is an awesome song/video. Hat tip to Sepia Mutiny.

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Change you can believe in

This morning the White House announced the creation of a new day, Obamaday, slated to fall between Saturday and Sunday. Initially the day will be funded by borrowing the hour between 3:00 and 4:00 am from the other 7 days of the week. President O assured Americans that it will seem like a full 24 hour day because he had instructed all media outlets to exclusively run interviews with, and feature stories about Larry Summers and Timmy Geithner.

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Monday, March 30, 2009

Top Gear: Ford Festiva

It just gets better and better. Watch the video until the end, and be rewarded.

If you are male, that is. If you are a woman, you'll likely ask, "WTF is wrong with men?"

(Nod to Anonyman)

Bad news for the environment

I guess it really isn't new news but I just saw the following chart:



What is especially depressing is that Brazil and Peru have a lot more rainforest than do the other three countries.

I am not a climate scientist, but I wonder why doing something about this problem (e.g. paying Brazil and Peru to protect more rainforest) wouldn't be a good idea?

Hat tip to Otto!

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World's Greatest Deliberative Body

Chuck Grassley plays the dozens on Kent Conrad:

Mr. Grassley: I’d like to suggest to the chairman that he might want to support this because, you remember, you asked me two years ago not to take a vote on it and you said if we did take a vote on it you might not get your budget resolution adopted. So I did not ask for a vote on it and you said it was a very statesmanlike thing for me to do at that particular time and so I would hope that you would return the favor.

Mr. Conrad: You know, I used to like you. Let me just say: Oh, you are good.

Mr. Grassley: Well, your wife said the same thing.


Note to Grassley: dude, did you have a colonoscopy earlier in the day or what?

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Sunday, March 29, 2009

Great 8, Horror of 4: Mungodamus is Mungodumbass

So, I nailed all 8 of the round of 8.

And got gerschnockled in the final four.

My only surviving Final Fourist is UNC, who I have picked
to win against 'Nova, and then to beat the winner of the other side
of the bracket.

If UNC wins out, I do have a chance for glory.

Problem is that the Duke pool has LOTS of folks who picked UNC to go all the way (money more important than spirit) (not that we bet anything. That would be wrong).

Props to Aaron King. He believed in Michigan State all this time, and they came through. Aaaron is at 99.9 percentile. Wow.

Which reminds me, how do you keep a Michigan State cheerleader from drinking too much at the celebration for the final four? It's easy, just close the toilet seat.

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Rug Burns in the Oval Office

No, this is not a Clinton joke.

An artist (Justine Lai) did a series of painting depicting her being filibustered by various U.S. Presidents. If you click on this link, you will see her explanation, NOT the work. If you want to click on the works from there....well, as Tofe says, what is seen on the internet cannot easily be unseen.

I'm not sure what this is about. On the other, she made me look, and wonder, and so that is likely a win for her.

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Choctaw Poker

Oklahoma is known for (besides me and Mrs. Angus) oil & gas, pig farming, self-storage, churches, and Indian Casinos. The one closest to our house is called Riverwind. It's actually Chickasaw, not Choctaw, but....

Anyway, they run two "big" poker tournaments a year. The "Big Slick" was last November. I won a seat into that tourney by winning a single table satellite and then finished 11th out of 186 entrants for a decent payday.

The other big tourney is called the "Storm". I just won a seat into that this afternoon via placing in the top 20% of a mega-satellite (where the buy in is 20% of the buy in to the big tourney and last 20% of the field left standing wins a seat). The Storm is May 9th. Come by and sweat me if you feel like it!

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How many non sequiturs does it take to make an NY Times op-ed?

This many!

Shiller's piece is a masterwork of phone-it-in non sequiturs.

He start with 3 paragraphs about a guy who wrote a book "predicting" the second world war. Then comes a short paragraph that allegedly explains social psychology:

Rather than depending exclusively on quantitative analysis, this method relies on a “theory of mind” — defined by cognitive scientists as humans’ innate ability, evolved over millions of years, to judge others’ changing thinking, their understandings, their intentions, their pretenses. It is a judgment faculty, quite different from our quantitative faculties.

Got that? Good.

Then we are treated to 8 paragraphs about how Larry Summers wrote a paper in 1989 that predicted our current financial calamities.

Then comes the all important link up:

How did he write a story 20 years ago that sounds so much like what we are experiencing now? It seems that he was looking at factors of human psychology, much as Mr. Steel did.

LOL to the Z, people. Well played Bob. Except that nothing Shiller says in 8 paragraphs about Summers' paper mentions psychology. I guess Bob did notice this problem because he provides the link himself in the next paragraph:

Ultimately, the record bubbles in the stock market after 1994 and the housing market after 2000 were responsible for the crisis we are in now. And these bubbles were in turn driven by a view of the world born of complacency about crises, driven by views about the real source of economic wealth, the efficiency of markets and the importance of speculation in our lives. It was these mental processes that pushed the economy beyond its limits, and that had to be understood to see the reasons for the crisis.


Then after proving that social (or is it human?) psychology is an awesome predictive tool comes the obligatory rapid backpedaling away from your conclusion:

Of course, forecasts based on a theory of mind are subject to egregious error. They cannot accurately predict the future. But the uncomfortable truth has to be that such forecasts need to be respected alongside econometric forecasts, which cannot reliably predict the future, either.

And the take home lesson of this piece?

The greatest risk is that appropriate stimulus will be derailed by doubters who still do not appreciate the true condition of our economy.

Wow! Where did THAT come from? Kudos, sir.

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Saturday, March 28, 2009

Have pity on Ben Bernanke

He's just not getting paid, people. His salary is $191,000. By way of contrast, J. C. Trichet, head of the European Central Bank makes almost $500,000. The head of the Swiss Central Bank makes over $700,000 for pete's sake.

But the most amazing case is that of Hong Kong. The head of their "Central Bank" is Joseph Yam and he makes $1.3 million, about 7 times as much as Helicopter Ben.

People, Hong Kong IS PEGGED TO THE U.S. DOLLAR!!!

Bernanke is literally doing Yam's job while Yam rakes in a cool million plus per annum. I bet he doesn't even give Ben a taste.

Talk about outsourcing!

I got these figures here. Hat tip to Mark Perry.

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Saturday poetry corner

I recently became aware of a song that gives a real slice of life view of living in Oklahoma. It's called "Choctaw Bingo" and it's written by James McMurtry:

lyrics are here. You can hear it here.

Hat tip to Norman M.

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Let it never be said

In the comments of the previous post, I was accused of being less than forthcoming with photos from our trip to Madagascar last summer. So, I have put up four (count 'em, four!) public galleries on Picassa (247 total photos) of the trip.

They are available here, and here is a teaser:




Yes, we saw a Yeti!!! (actually it's a Decken's sifaka)

enjoy!

ps. if anyone is interested, I can do the same for our 2007 trip to Rwanda and Tanzania.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Nature; WTF edition

People, some kangaroos live in trees! and they are freakin' cute!



here's another shot:



when I showed these to Mrs. Angus she said "we have GOT to go to New Guinea!"

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My Bracket vs. that of Baracket Obama

I have now risen to the 95%. The Duke loss, and the Missouri win, have me in pretty
good shape.

I would like to point out the comment from my previous post:

Anonymous said...

I wish I could imagine a universe where Mizzou can beat Memphis.

3:29 PM


It's not that hard to imagine, actually. Suppose that Mizzou scores 102,
and Memphis scores 91. Suppose Mizzou, a pressing team, has an easy time with the Memphis press. Suppose that this happened.

Mizzou over Memphis was actually quite a common pick. To say that you can't imagine a #3 winning over a #2 is a sign that you are bona fide moron. The game wasn't close. The match-ups were such that MANY people thought Mizzou was a good upset pick.

{Inappropriate screed, by me, deleted. My wife assures me I was irrational, and still on aneshesia from my early morning (8-9 am) medical procedure (yes, colonoscopy). So my apologies. The commenter was atually expressing HOPE that Mizzou would win, and I was too stupid to recognize that. Aaargh. How embarrassing.}

My bracket.

Bracket o' the Prez.

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Lost in a sea of scarves

Check it out people: twin sons of different mothers:



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Thursday, March 26, 2009

My hometown gets reamed on the interwebs

Around here, people like to brag about how CNN/Money listed Norman as America's 6th best small city.

Judging from this post, though the folks at "Gridskipper: The Worldwide Travel Blog" were not consulted when forming those rankings.

Also you can check the extremely un-family friendly comments to see the friendly laid back spirit for which Oklahoma is so justly reknown.

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Mr. Hazlitt....He right

Wow. Was Henry Hazlitt blessed with the gift of foresight? Nope. Just economic logic. This from 1946 (from KPC friend and ubermensch Mark Perry)

Government-guaranteed home mortgages, especially when a negligible down payment or no down payment whatever is required, inevitably mean more bad loans than otherwise. They force the general taxpayer to subsidize the bad risks and to defray the losses. They encourage people to “buy” houses that they cannot really afford. They tend eventually to bring about an oversupply of houses as compared with other things. They temporarily overstimulate building, raise the cost of building for everybody (including the buyers of the homes with the guaranteed mortgages), and may mislead the building industry into an eventually costly overexpansion. In brief, in they long run they do not increase overall national production but encourage malinvestment. (my emphasis)

~From Chapter VI "Credit Diverts Production" in Henry Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson," first published in 1946

(That would be 1946. 63 years ago. Not bad. Now go out and vote for those CDBG Down Payment Assistance Programs, you do gooders! You are harming the very people you seem to believe you are helping!)

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Helicopter Ben is doing the job

At least compared to the response of the Bank of Japan after their housing bubble burst. Check out this recent article on the subject which contains the following:

"The following graph compares the cumulative growth in the broad money supply of both Japan and the US for the first 14 months after the starts of their respective post-credit crash recessions (April 1992 for Japan and December 2007 for the US):



The difference is quite dramatic. 14 months after Japan's recession began, the Japanese money supply had cumulatively grown by less than 1%. Here in the US, 14 months after the start of our recession, the money supply has already increase by almost 11%."

Go Ben...get busy... pump it up...it's your birthday.....grow M2 like it's your birthday.....

Hat tip to Tim Iacono.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Jake deSantis quits on the NYT Op Ed Page

Pretty impressive resignation letter.

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Duke Chautauqua Series

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bromance



Hat tip to Mark Thoma's daughter.

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The button down mind of BHO

Q: Mr. President, are you — thank you. Thank you, Mr. President. Are you reconsidering your plan to cut the interest rate deduction for mortgages and for charities? And do you regret having proposed that in the first place?

OBAMA: No, I think it's — I think it's the right thing to do, where we've got to make some difficult choices. Here's what we did with respect to tax policy.

What we said was that, over the last decade, the average worker, the average family have seen their wages and incomes flat. Even in times where supposedly we were in the middle of an economic boom, as a practical matter, their incomes didn't go up. And so, well, we said, Let's give them a tax cut. Let's give them some relief, some help, 95 percent of American families.

Now, for the top 5 percent, they're the ones who typically saw huge gains in their income. I, I fall in that category. And what we've said is, for those folks, let's not renew the Bush tax cuts, so let's go back to the rates that existed back in, during the Clinton era, when wealthy people were still wealthy and doing just fine, and let's look at the, the level at which people can itemize their deductions.

And what we've said is: Let's go back to the rate that existed under Ronald Reagan. People are still going to be able to make charitable contributions. It just means, if you give $100 and you're in this tax bracket, at a certain point, instead of being able to write off 36 percent or 39 percent, you're writing off 28 percent.

Now, if it's really a charitable contribution, I'm assuming that that shouldn't be the determining factor as to whether you're giving that $100 to the homeless shelter down the street.

And so this provision would affect about 1 percent of the American people. They would still get deductions. It's just that they wouldn't be able to write off 39 percent.

In that sense, what it would do is it would equalize. When I give $100, I'd get the same amount of deduction as when some, a bus driver who's making $50,000 a year, or $40,000 a year, gives that same $100. Right now, he gets 28 percent, he gets to write off 28 percent. I get to write off 39 percent. I don't think that's fair.

So I think this was a good idea. I think it is a realistic way for us to raise some revenue from people who've benefited enormously over the last several years.

It's not going to cripple them. They'll still be well-to-do. And, you know, ultimately, if we're going to tackle the serious problems that we've got, then, in some cases, those who are more fortunate are going to have to pay a little bit more.

My favorite parts? First, I love the extremely high bar BHO has set for his policies: "It's not going to cripple them", so what in the world could the fuss be about?

I also like his command of economics: "If it's really a charitable contribution", then the tax treatment really isn't important to the process.

Finally I really like the asymmetric application of fairness. He compares a rich guy to a bus driver making $50,000 and says it's not fair that the rich guy gets a bigger deduction for the same contribution. He seems however to have no problem with the fact that the bus driver is paying less in taxes both overall and as a percentage of his income.

Look people, I know politicians will pretty much say anything to justify what they want to do, I am just a bit surprised at how much of a hack our beloved Obama has become in such a short time.


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The availability heuristic....

Psychology Today:

We use the availability heuristic to estimate the frequency of specific events. For example, how often are people killed by mass murderers? Because higher frequency events are more likely to occur at any given moment, we also use the availability heuristic to estimate the probability that events will occur. For example, what is the probability that I will be killed by a mass murderer tomorrow?

We are especially reliant upon the availability heuristic when we do not have solid evidence from which to base our estimates. For example, what is the probability that the next plane you fly on will crash? The true probability of any particular plane crashing depends on a huge number of factors, most of which you're not aware of and/or don't have reliable data on. What type of plane is it? What time of day is the flight? What is the weather like? What is the safety history of this particular plane? When was the last time the plane was examined for problems? Who did the examination and how thorough was it? Who is flying the plane? How much sleep did they get last night? How old are they? Are they taking any medications? You get the idea.

The chances are excellent that you do not have access to all or even most of the information needed to make accurate estimates for just about anything. Indeed, you probably have little or no data from which to base your estimate. Well, that's not exactly true. In fact, there is one piece that evidence that you always have access to: your memory. Specifically, how easily can you recall previous incidents of the event in question? The easier time we have recalling prior incidents, the greater probability the event has of occurring -- at least as far as our minds are concerned. In a nutshell, this is the availability heuristic.

[...]

Although there are many problems associated with the availability heuristic, perhaps the most concerning one is that it often leads people to lose sight of life's real dangers. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer, for example, conducted a fascinating study that showed in the months following September 11, 2001, Americans were less likely to travel by air and more likely to instead travel by car. While it is understandable why Americans would have been fearful of air travel following the incredibly high profile attacks on New York and Washington, the unfortunate result is that Americans died on the highways at alarming rates following 9/11. This is because highway travel is far more dangerous than air travel. More than 40,000 Americans are killed every year on America's roads. Fewer than 1,000 people die in airplane accidents, and even fewer people are killed aboard commercial airlines.

[...]

Consider, for example, that the 2009 budget for homeland security (the folks that protect us from terrorists) will likely be about $50 billion. Don't get us wrong, we like the fact that people are trying to prevent terrorism, but even at its absolute worst, terrorists killed about 3,000 Americans in a single year. And less than 100 Americans are killed by terrorists in most years. By contrast, the budget for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (the folks who protect us on the road) is about $1 billion, even though more than 40,000 people will die this year on the nation's roads. In terms of dollars spent per fatality, we fund terrorism prevention at about $17,000,000/fatality (i.e., $50 billion/3,000 fatalities) and accident prevention at about $25,000/fatality (i.e., $1 billion/40,000 fatalities).


(Nod to MAG, with thanks)

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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Allen Craig Watch

The Allen Craig watch, in spring training for El Birdos.

Before........... AB: 20 SO: 3 BB: 4 OBP .583 SLG .750 AVG.500

One Week Later: AB: 27 SO: 4 BB: 5 OBP .531 SLG .667 AVG .444

Allen has by FAR the bast stats for anyone with at least 15 at bats.

But he got assigned to AA Springfield, where he played last year.

We could sure use another lefthanded pitcher. Jaime Garcia has an ERA approaching 6, and NOT as a starter (As Angus is fond of saying, very slowly: "OTHER....PEOPLE's..... RUNS!"). Trever Miller is nearly 36 years old. Royce Ring has given up 16 earned runs, in 6 total innings pitched. That's an ERA well over 20. The only real lefty we've got is Dennis Reyes, who is 32 years old and looks rounder than the 250 he's listed at in the stats. Still, Reyes is a veteran, a solid guy, with a WHIP of 1.5 in nearly 650 total innings pitched. His ERA last year was 2.33; glad to have you, Dennis! Stats, and a video of the chubby one in action.

Anyway, we sure could use another lefthander. A spot starter guy, but mostly to come in and shut down one lefthanded batter in a tough inning. Right now, we have a bunch of guys who just spray gas on the fire.

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IF you are a political scientist....

A little dust-up over zoning over in Chapel Hill.

Mayor Kenneth Foy is on the record as opposing any development on land owned by a person who didn't contribute to his campaign.

During the dust-up at Chapel Hill City Council Meeting (just stop and think what a cluster f**k that meeting has to be...magnificent!), the following was observed by the Raleigh News and Observer reporter:

Georg Vanberg, a political science professor at UNC-Chapel Hill, called out council member Bill Strom for "looking down" and "not paying attention" as he spoke.

Vanberg accused the council of "procedural shenanigans" because Foy required speakers to wait until Ayden Court came up on the meeting agenda rather than allowing them to speak about the development during a public hearing on expanding uses of the high-density zone.

"By your vote, you made anything they said irrelevant," Vanberg said. "People are upset about [taxes], and you guys are doing your best to ruin the fiscal health of this community."

The mayor angrily countered Vanberg's "shenanigans" statement, saying the zoning change was a separate issue.

"If you're a political scientist," said Foy, "maybe you ought to inform yourself if you're going to start saying things like that."


IF? IF? Golly, Mayor Foy. I guess I was hoping you had some better rhetorical tactic than questioning someone's professional credentials. Like...a counterargument, something that addressed the claims being made.

But, since you decided to make that play, let's go to the "tale o'the tape" on "iffy" Political Scientist Georg Vanberg:


hmmm....doesn't really LOOK like a political scientist. Handsome, in good physical shape, has most of his hair....Maybe Mayor Foy is on to something!

But, no.

Dr. Georg Vanberg "is an Associate Professor and Co-Director of the Undergraduate Honors Program in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. My research focuses on comparative political institutions. I am particularly interested in constitutional and judicial politics as well as in coalition theory. I teach courses on judicial and constitutional politics, formal modeling, and research design."

That is, he got a PhD at U of Rochester, one of the foremost graduate programs in political science. He is tenured at UNC, again one of the foremost programs in political science. And his c.v. shows broad and deep interests in elections and political economy. Me, I think he is qualified to offer some judgments about a city council meeting and its procedures.

Yup, he's a political scientist all right. If it hadn't been for those meddling kids, and their darned blog, the Mayor would have gotten away with it!

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Damned Voters!

Literally, according to a new NBER working paper by Robinson and Torvik (ungated version here), entitled "The Real Swing Voter's Curse".

"A central idea in political economy is that voters who are not ideologically attached to a political party, so-called ‘swing voters,’ attract policy favors and redistribution because they become the focus of electoral competition. In many parts of the world, however, politicians do not just use carrots to win elections, they also use sticks - coercion and violence. In this paper we show that expanding the ‘policy space’ to incorporate this can completely overturn the predictions of the standard model. The reason for this is simple. With all groups of voters at play, political competition does indeed lead to a chase for the support of swing voters. In equilibrium this enables such voters to extract a large amount of rent from politicians. Anticipating this, politicians have an incentive to use violence to effectively disenfranchise swing voters. Indeed, and surprisingly, we show that it can be more attractive for an incumbent to disenfranchise the swing voters than the core supporters of the opposition. Swing voters are not blessed but cursed."

After developing a model, they go on to argue that something very much like this has been going on in Zimbabwe.

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To Our Health

----------------------

Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks

Daron Acemoglu, Amy Finkelstein & Matthew Notowidigdo
NBER Working Paper, February 2009

Abstract:
Health expenditures as a share of GDP have more than tripled over the last half century. A common conjecture is that this is primarily a consequence of rising real per capita income, which more than doubled over the same period. We investigate this hypothesis empirically by instrumenting for local area income with time-series variation in global oil prices between 1970 and 1990 interacted with cross-sectional variation in the oil reserves across different areas of the Southern United States. This strategy enables us to capture both the partial equilibrium and the local general equilibrium effects of an increase in income on health expenditures. Our central estimate is an income elasticity of 0.7, with an elasticity of 1.1 as the upper end of the 95 percent confidence interval. Point estimates from alternative specifications fall on both sides of our central estimate, but are almost always less than 1. We also present evidence suggesting that there are unlikely to be substantial national or global general equilibrium effects of rising income on health spending, for example through induced innovation. Our overall reading of the evidence is that rising income is unlikely to be a major driver of the rising health share of GDP.


----------------------

Take Two Aspirin And Tweet Me In The Morning: How Twitter, Facebook, And
Other Social Media Are Reshaping Health Care

Carleen Hawn
Health Affairs, March/April 2009, Pages 361-368

Abstract:
If you want a glimpse of what health care could look like a few years from now, consider "Hello Health," the Brooklyn-based primary care practice that is fast becoming an emblem of modern medicine. A paperless, concierge practice that eschews the limitations of insurance-based medicine, Hello Health is popular and successful, largely because of the powerful and cost-effective communication tools it employs: Web-based social media. Indeed, across the health care industry, from large hospital networks to patient support groups, new media tools like weblogs, instant messaging platforms, video chat, and social networks are reengineering the way doctors and patients interact.

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Monday, March 23, 2009

UPDATE: Obama v. Munger

Well, the EPA called.

They want to declare my bracket a SUPERFUND site. Something about buying up toxic ass. (My bracket)

I take some solace in the fact that I am still beating out the Prez. (His bracket)

To his credit, he nailed 14 of the Sweet 16, which got him back some level of respectability.

And, since Baracket Obama and I have the same final four, with the exception of him picking Memphis and me picking Mizzou in the West, this could be close. I have a narrow lead, because he had such a disastrous first round.

It will come down to these games:

Memphis v. Mizzou:
If Mizzou wins, I am golden. This is the single biggest factor,
since I have los tigres in the Final Four
Duke v. Villanova: If Villanova can pull this out, it will help me a bit. (No, I did not pick 'Nova to beat Duke. I picked Texas to beat Duke. I would pick the Sisters of Mercy Convent School to beat Duke, this year. I don't see them winning much. I was, I should point out, quite wrong.)

Both of us have MichStU over Kansas, that's a push.

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A horse is a horse, of course, of course

Here at KPC we've been using the saga of the old lady who swallowed the fly as a parable for the government's actions in this our hour of crisis (as have some of our more tawdry imitators).

When, in the context of the AIG bonus sideshow, a commenter asked me "what the horse would be", I hazarded a guess of government pay scales for everyone.

So this has to to at least be a Shetland pony:

"The Obama administration will call for increased oversight of executive pay at all banks, Wall Street firms and possibly other companies as part of a sweeping plan to overhaul financial regulation, government officials said."

Yikes!

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Markets in everything: piscine edition

Turns out you cant pay to have fish eat the dead skin on your feet, at least in some states (sorry Texas and Florida).

Yikes!!

Full story is here.

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Sunday, March 22, 2009

Economists gone Wild!

Check out the once serious Robert Frank in todays NY Times.

Here is the summary:

Bush deficits bad (because private citizens spent money on stuff they wanted).

Obama deficits good ('cause the government will spend the money for us).

(You may think I am distorting the article. I think this is a fair summary. Please read it and make up your own mind)

In fact, speaking of the Obama deficit Frank says "If anything, it may need to be even larger"

And here's Bob on how to pay off the accumulated debt:

"there are many ways to pay down debt without requiring painful sacrifices. A $2 tax on each gallon of gasoline, for example, would generate more than $100 billion in additional revenue a year. Europeans, who pay more than $2 a gallon in gasoline taxes, have adapted by choosing more efficient cars — and they appear no less satisfied with them."

Yikes!!!!

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Careful with that axe, Eugene

People, I post this Sunday morning in praise of an overlooked Scotsman, one Eugene Kelly.

I am a big fan, starting with the Vaselines (and his contributions to the Pastels), going through Captain America and right on to Eugenius.

Here is a short list of essential Eugene:

Pastels: Sittin' Pretty

Vaselines: The Way of the Vaselines

Captain America: Flame On

Eugenius: Oomalama

Here is what the Allmusic Guide has to say about Eugene Kelly.

Feast your ears, people.

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Saturday, March 21, 2009

Email from a new friend.....

Hello Mr. Munger,

I hear you every now and then on 680 AM and usually just turn it off after a few seconds. Why Bill has you on I have no idea.
(MY RESPONSE: LAURA, MAYBE IT'S BECAUSE I DO IT FOR FREE?)

Each time I hear news of the nation and of the state it is bad. Every since the election it gets worse and worse. Obama is dead set to ruin all this nation is
about. As for NC, we would have had a chance with McCory. NC really had a chance at getting a conservative in as govenor. Who did we GET. In my opinion we got Perdue because you were so vain as to run when you knew you would never get enough votes to WIN. So we all have to suffer because you took the votes away from McCory that would have made the outcome different. All people like you are about is themselves. This election it was so close and conservatives were so close to make a difference from all the deceit we had with Easley. The lottery money that was to be JUST FOR EDUCATION and now 88 million in going into the general fund. There is no point in listing everything. You are just like Ross Perot. Maybe that is mis. spelled. Just because you think you have the qualifications and ability doesn't mean it should override the risk that you caused us all by running for the office. Maybe you were really out to support Perdue and that's why you ruined it for the conservatives and our state. I really think you just wanted to hear yourself talk and you know because you could run for the office you did. Knowing you would not win and knowing it would cost McCory and the tax payers, but you did it anyway. Hope it cost you in some way that none of us will ever know, because you cost us all the next four years.

Laura Tucker


Dear Laura, my new BFF:

FIRST: Exit polls show that I took LOTS more votes from Perdue than Mccrory. As PPP puts it:

One other interesting finding from our analysis. We pointed out several times last fall that our data showed Michael Munger was pulling more votes from Perdue than McCrory, contrary to the conventional wisdom that Libertarians take from Republican candidates. The county where he ended up doing best? Deep blue Orange, where he pulled 5% of the vote.

I have actually talked to Pat McCrory about this, and he agrees it's true. Had I not run, Bev would have won by more. (Notice that ALL of those words were one syllable; I'm hoping you can actually understand them...). The reason is all the straight party ticket Dem voters. Pat actually won on election day, by quite a bit. But Bev won the early voters, the ones who just showed up to vote for Obama.

SECOND: Bev beat Pat by more than the TOTAL votes that I got, as you can see here.


Bev beat pat by 145,000 votes. I only got a total of 121,000 votes.

That is, if every one (EVERY. ONE.) of the people who voted for me had instead voted for Pat, he still would have lost. And the fact is that MOST of votes came from Perdue. There is no way you can seriously believe I cost Pat the election. It's not even close. No question: most of my votes came from Dems. More than 60% of my voters also voted for Obama.

I'm afraid you are overestimating my impact. To the extent that that is a compliment, I do thank you. But I'm afraid the compliment is undeserved. Still, I do appreciate your kindness in seeking me out this way. Let's talk again soon!

Mike

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