Saturday, January 12, 2008

The Democrats of January

Dem's Delegate Count, Jan. 12

Clinton 183
Obama 78
Edwards 52
Richardson 19
Kucinich 1
Biden 0
Dodd 0
Gravel 0

Required for Nomination: 2,025

This week: Michigan! 156 delegates. Clinton running "unopposed" in Michigan. But if at least X>=15% of Michigan Dems vote "uncommitted", then the state party must send X % uncommitted delegates to the national convention. So, the question will be whether Hillary can get more than 85% running against no opposition except "not Hillary!". Well, and Kucinich. He's on the ballot, technically. But a vote for Kucinich is, in effect, a vote for Hillary, since that will reduce the "uncommitted" total. Interesting.

IF, that is, IF the Dems choose to seat the Michigan delegation at all. Playing chicken, with high stakes. The Mich Dem party brain trust is sure that the DNC will seat the delegates, in spite of the transgression of party rules. And they may be right. If the Mich Dems are seated, that will be 100 delegates or more for Hillary.

Clinton will win Nevada (Jan 19) easily, in spite of the recent endorsement of the Culinary Workers for Obama. The reason is that Edwards has also locked up a lot of union votes, and the split of the anti-Clinton sentiment will give Hilldo the plurality. Plus, her phone bank machine is just better organized than the others. Nevada is a caucus state, but the machine still matters.

Then, the first actual primary this year (not counting NH, and I don't) will be held in SC, on January 26. 54 delegates. Obama does fine in the polls, but two words: "Bradley Effect." Plus, Breck Girl Edwards shows well in SC, and will cost Obama the victory. Clinton, the telephones, the Bradley Effect: Clinton "surprises" everyone who isn't paying attention by pulling 35% of the vote in SC, and winning a plurality of delegates.

So, by the end of this month Clinton has more than 400 delegates, and all the people who knew she was dead will have the same certainty that she is inevitable. "Eastasia has always been our enemy," CNN will say. Often wrong, never in doubt.

The mechanics of the campaign matter. Polls are nonsense.

Then: Feb 5. Anything can happen. But remember that just because a bunch of media folks saw Obama, and got little tiny woodies just thinking about how cool it is to see a candidate in person, IT DOESN'T MATTER. On Super Tuesday, 22 states will put 1,700 delegates up for grabs. Pretty much NONE of those voters will ever have heard Obama speak in person. A few, but not that many, will have paid much attention to the debates or speeches on TV. Most will have seen the ads on TV. Most of them will get phone calls from the Clinton campaign, and nothing from the Obama campaign, because his campaign exists only in the minds of the media.

And when it comes right down to it, a plurality in most states will vote for Hillary. The media love for Obama will backfire. What most of the folks in the media mean by "democracy" is "Do what I think, because I am WAY smarter than you."

Finally: Sure, this may all be wishful thinking. Because this blog will be SO MUCH FUN if Hilldo is Prez. Hillary.....mmmmm....blogging about Hillary.


Fundman said...

Who's got the little woodie now????

The Unknown Professor said...

Hard to think of "Hillary" and "Woodie" in the same paragraph.

John Thacker said...

This week: Michigan! 156 delegates

Small note: Only 128 of the 156 would be allocated by the results of the primary, if accepted. The other 28 are unpledged "Superdelegates," consisting of DNC members, the Governor, Dem Senators, Dem House Members, and a few extra. The latter 28 can vote for whomever they want at the convention, if accepted. They were stripped as well due to holding their vote too early. See here.

Dirty Davey said...

Re: Bradley effect in SC--likely to be much less of an issue in the Democratic primary, as all the white South Carolinians are in the GOP.

A slight exaggeration, but I have seen it reported that the black voters make up the majority of the SC Democratic primary electorate.