Sunday, January 13, 2008

They call him "Mr. Sunshine"

Here's a compendium of the wit and wisdom of one Paul Krugman:

  • "[R]ight now it looks as if the economy is stalling..." — Paul Krugman, September 2002

  • "We have a sluggish economy, which is, for all practical purposes, in recession..." — Paul Krugman, May 2003

  • "An oil-driven recession does not look at all far-fetched." — Paul Krugman, May 2004

  • "[A] mild form of stagflation - rising inflation in an economy still well short of full employment - has already arrived." — Paul Krugman, April 2005

  • "If housing prices actually started falling, we'd be looking at [an economy pushed] right back into recession. That's why it's so ominous to see signs that America's housing market ... is approaching the final, feverish stages of a speculative bubble." — Paul Krugman, May 2005

  • "In fact, a growing number of economists are using the "R" word [i.e., "recession"] for 2006." - Paul Krugman, August 2005

  • "But based on what we know now, there’s an economic slowdown coming." - Paul Krugman, August 2006

  • "this kind of confusion about what’s going on is what typically happens when the economy is at a turning point, when an economic expansion is about to turn into a recession" - Paul Krugman, December 2006

  • "Right now, statistical models ... give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. ... [T]he odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year." - Paul Krugman, December 2006
Thanks to Jon Henke for this list


Steven Taylor said...

Just think, he'll eventually be correct!

Speedmaster said...

I suspect that once a Dem/socialist gets into the white house he'll see things to be much rosier.

Dirty Davey said...

Yglesias suggests that if you look at the timing and substance of these quotes, Krugman is actually batting somewhere over .500.

Angus said...

Yeah, I'm not saying "9 of the last zero" or anything like that in my post. I'm just struck by how stridently and repetitively grim it all is. To me, he's clearly hoping for a recession.

Dirty Davey said...

"I'm just struck by how stridently and repetitively grim it all is."

Well, it is a selection of lines specifically picked, from six-plus years of two columns a week, to portray grimness.

"To me, he's clearly hoping for a recession."

Or--alternatively--he's expecting one. If you believe that unchecked deficit spending, energy price increases, and a housing price bubble are things that will lead to a recession, and you observe these events in the world, then you expect a recession.

The simple fact that one expects or predicts a bad outcome does not mean one is "hoping for" it.