hard to explain, really

This is difficult to explain.

So I won't try.

Literature Update: Planning, Pricing, and Pissing Off

Do people plan?

John Bone, John Hey & John Suckling
Experimental Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We report the results of an experimental investigation of a key axiom of economic theories of dynamic decision making-namely, that agents plan. Inferences from previous investigations have been confounded with issues concerning the preference functionals of the agents. Here, we present an innovative experimental design which is driven purely by dominance: if preferences satisfy dominance, we can infer whether subjects are planning or not. We implement three sets of experiments: the first two (the Individual Treatments) in which the same player takes decisions both in the present and the future; and the third (the Pairs Treatment) in which different players take decisions at different times. The two Individual treatments differed in that, in one, the subjects played sequentially, while, in the other, the subjects had to pre-commit to their future move. In all contexts, according to economic theory, the players in the present should anticipate the decision of the player in the future. We find that over half the participants in all three experimental treatments do not appear to be planning ahead; moreover, their ability to plan ahead does not improve with experience, except possibly when we force subjects to pre-commit to their future decision. These findings identify an important lacuna in economic theories, both for individual behaviour and for behaviour in games.

-------------------------------

Zero as a special price: The true value of free products

Kristina Shampan'er, Nina Mazar, & Dan Ariely
Marketing Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
When faced with a choice of selecting one of several available products (or possibly buying nothing), according to standard theoretical perspectives, people will choose the option with the highest cost-benefit difference. However, we propose that decisions about free (zero price) products differ, in that people do not simply subtract costs from benefits and perceive the benefits associated with free products as higher. We test this proposal by contrasting demand for two products across conditions that maintain the price difference between the goods, but vary the prices such that the cheaper good in the set is priced at either a low positive or zero price. In contrast with a standard cost-benefit perspective, in the zero price
condition, dramatically more participants choose the cheaper option, whereas
dramatically fewer participants choose the more expensive option. Thus, people appear to act as if zero pricing of a good not only decreases its cost but also adds to its benefits. After documenting this basic effect, we propose and test several psychological antecedents of the effect, including social norms, mapping difficulty, and affect. Affect emerges as the most likely account for the effect.

------------------------------

Thinking Straight While Seeing Red: The Influence of Anger on Information
Processing

Wesley Moons & Diane Mackie
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, May 2007, Pages 706-720

Abstract:
Because angry people apparently rely on heuristic cues when making
judgments, anger has been claimed to trigger superficial, nonanalytic
information processing. In three studies, the authors found that induced
anger promoted analytic processing. Experiment 1 showed that angry
participants were more likely to discriminate between weak and strong
arguments than participants in neutral moods. Experiment 2 demonstrated that
anger overrode dispositional preferences not to process, causing even those
low in need for cognition to process analytically. Experiment 3 reconciled
these findings with previous work by showing that angry people used
accessible, valid, and relevant heuristics but otherwise processed
analytically, as indicated by attitude change and elaboration data.
Together, these experiments showed that angry people can have both the
capacity and motivation to process and that their selective use of
heuristics reflects the cue's perceived validity and not the failure to
process analytically.

-----------------------------

Can an Angry Woman Get Ahead? Status Conferral, Gender, and Expression of
Emotion in the Workplace

Victoria Brescoll & Eric Luis Uhlmann
Psychological Science, March 2008, Pages 268-275

Abstract:
Three studies examined the relationships among anger, gender, and status conferral. As in prior research, men who expressed anger in a professional context were conferred higher status than men who expressed sadness. However, both male and female evaluators conferred lower status on angry female professionals than on angry male professionals. This was the case regardless of the actual occupational rank of the target, such that both a female trainee and a female CEO were given lower status if they expressed anger than if they did not. Whereas women's emotional reactions were
attributed to internal characteristics (e.g., "she is an angry person," "she is out of control"), men's emotional reactions were attributed to external circumstances. Providing an external attribution for the target person's anger eliminated the gender bias. Theoretical implications and practical applications are discussed.

*******************************

Three comments: a shame that John Hey is a co-author on the first paper. I would love to cite the "Bone-Suckling paper." It would clearly be semenal. (Okay, I'm already sorry I said that. You won't tell anyone, right? That was just juvenile.)

Second: On the "free" paper: The point is that people underestimate the true costs of "free" stuff. And that's interesting. But I think it is safe to say that Elliott Spitzer would have been MUCH better off with what he was getting for free, from his wife, instead of what he was paying for, from Kristen.
In that case, at least, free really, really is better.

Third, Dan Ariely is a colleague of mine here at Duke. And he is doing some of the coolest stuff around.

(Nod to KL)

Ebay makes Okie life sweet

A pair of antique vacuum tubes (from the 1930s I believe) that I bought off Ebay arrived in today's mail. I had never seen engraved base, globe glass, mesh plate 56 triodes before and when I did, I had to get them. They test fantastically strong, just as the seller advertised and they are going in my soon to be finished homemade preamp.

Feast your eyes people:

OKC Sonics....has a nice ring to it, eh?

Well at least it won't be as weird as the Utah Jazz!

Anyway my neighbors up in Oak City have agreed to tax themselves to provide $120 million plus to renovate the Ford Center for the Sonics and now the city has agreed to terms on a 15 year lease with the team. The Sonics' request to move will be voted on by the NBA next month, and David Stern is on record that if Seattle hadn't done anything the request would be approved. Well Seattle has talked about doing something, but has not actually done anything.

Plus, we Okies have a built in corporate sponsor for the team.

Mrs. Angus is already worried about me blowing the family budget on tickets.

Fundmania

Mr. and Ms. Fundman visited the Mungowitz house.

First, we had fun with firearms. Fundman chose the AK, while Ms. Fundman chose the 8mm Mauser K98 with fixed bayonet, always popular with the ladies.


Then, played some Rock Band. Younger younger Munger on drums, Ms. Fundman on guitar, and Fundman himself on vocals. Ms. Fundman was quite a good guitar player. I'm going to leave it at that. Here is Fundman, singing "Black Hole Sun."

And Don't Forget the Press Gangs

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

Daniel Benjamin & Christopher Thornberg
Explorations in Economic History, April 2007, Pages 317-341

Abstract:
The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of
its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly
from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those
of today's large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a
hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came
with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the
option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in
higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay
structure.

Of course, you could also be "impressed" with the navy's recruiting program....

(Nod to KL)

A Fine Start

David Paterson just gave his first public address since Eliot Spitzer's resignation yesterday. He made noises about "getting back to work" and the budget, talked about being black and blind, indicated he wasn't planning any major changes to his predecessors more controversial policies, and became the first human being in government to express sympathy for Spitzer himself. "My heart goes out to Eliot Spitzer, his wife Silda, his daughters," he said. "I know what he's gone through this week. In my heart, I think he's suffered enough." Paterson also displayed a rather awesome sense of humor. "Just so we don't have to go through this whole resignation thing again," one ballsy reporter asked, "have you ever patronized a prostitute?" Patterson thought for a minute. "Only the lobbyists," he said.

ATSRTWT

(Nod to Anonyman)

I commit

I commit to....wondering why this works.

But it may.

(Nod to Anonyman, who is not from the "Spitzer School" of commitment)

What?

It's possible the editing cut out the parts that made sense.

But there was still quite a bit that....didn't.

Tom's documentary debut: not good.

(Nod to Bayou Jack)

Marginal Revolution Watch

MR is my second favorite blog and the source of much KPC traffic, but I have to take a bit of issue with a couple of their recent posts:

(1) First, Tyler, quoting himself, says that Wikipedia is more likely to be true than the "median refereed journal article on economics" and that this should "give us pause".

Well, I think so too (but didn't give myself pause in doing so), but that's mainly because few journal articles are about people's life histories or historical events or giving definitions of well established concepts. The median refereed journal article in economics is almost surely empirical which means it is making a probabilistic argument based on inductive reasoning from a sample. By definition it's not "true".

Now if the question is whether there are more active attempts to deceive in econ journals vs. Wikipedia, I think that is less of a sure thing but even there the basic fact that we are comparing apples to oranges makes it problematic to say anything definitive.

(2) Meanwhile, Alex presents a curious defense of swinging ex-Gov. Spitzer:

"If Governor Spitzer wanted to have sex with a younger woman then instead of hiring a prostitute he could have gotten a divorce and remarried, just like so many other rich and powerful men. Or he could have had an affair. Of these options hiring a prostitute is the least threatening to marriage but it's the only option which is illegal. In contrast, getting a divorce and remarrying a younger woman is so common it doesn't even stop a man from running for President."

Now, I favor legalized prostitution and I found Dershowitz's WSJ editorial convincing in its arguments that the case against Spitzer is most probably an example of prosecutorial abuse of power, but I do not agree that divorce is more harmful to the institution of marriage than cheating and lying. That is pretty much like saying staying with an abusive spouse is less harmful to "marriage" than leaving her and starting over. I guess the best way to say this is that I reject "protecting marriage" as some kind of gold standard by which to judge the morality or correctness of people's actions. Being honest, getting a divorce and then taking up with someone else is clearly a morally preferable course of action to secret affairs or secret expenditures.

Moko for President

From New Zealand comes the story of Moko the rescue dolphin. Two "pygmy sperm whales" repeatedly grounded themselves on a sandbar and rescuers couldn't seem to get them turned around and out to sea. It seemed like curtains for the hapless cetaceans. Then along came Moko:

Rescuers worked for more than one hour to get the whales back into the water, only to see them strand themselves four times on a sandbar slightly out to sea. It looked likely the whales would have to be euthanized to prevent them suffering a prolonged death, Smith said.

"They kept getting disorientated and stranding again," said Smith, who was among the rescuers. "They obviously couldn't find their way back past (the sandbar) to the sea."

Along came Moko, who approached the whales and led them 200 meters (yards) along the beach and through a channel out to the open sea.

"Moko just came flying through the water and pushed in between us and the whales," Juanita Symes, another rescuer, told The Associated Press. "She got them to head toward the hill, where the channel is. It was an amazing experience. The best day of my life."

Anton van Helden, a marine mammals expert at New Zealand's national museum, Te Papa Tongarewa, said the reports of Moko's rescue were "fantastic" but believable because the dolphins have "a great capacity for altruistic activities."

And when his work was done??

After the rescue, Moko returned to the beach and joined in games with local residents.

Wow!

This is the best of all possible Campaigns....

....because you get to see stuff like this:

Sinbad Unloads on Hillary Clinton

The only thing funnier than Hillary claiming to have vast foreign policy experience is Obama digging up Sinbad to slap her down on the particulars of her mission to Bosnia.

Some highlights:

Sinbad, along with singer Sheryl Crow, was on that 1996 trip to Bosnia that Clinton has described as a harrowing international experience that makes her tested and ready to answer a 3 a.m. phone call at the White House on day one, a claim for which she's taking much grief on the campaign trail.Harrowing? Not that Sinbad recalls. He just remembers it being a USO tour to buck up the troops amid a much worse situation than he had imagined between the Bosnians and Serbs.

In an interview with the Sleuth Monday, he said the "scariest" part of the trip was wondering where he'd eat next. "I think the only 'red-phone' moment was: 'Do we eat here or at the next place.'"

and then there's this:

In her Iowa stump speech, Clinton also said, "We used to say in the White House that if a place is too dangerous, too small or too poor, send the First Lady."

Say what? As Sinbad put it: "What kind of president would say, 'Hey, man, I can't go 'cause I might get shot so I'm going to send my wife...oh, and take a guitar player and a comedian with you.'"

Well, Sinbad, off the top of my head, I'd say an intern-diddling chicken-$%$# president like Bill Clinton would be the kind of president who'd say something like that.

Huge hat tip to Betsy!

A forecast to believe in?

The UCLA Anderson Forecast group headed by Ed Leamer sez NO RECESSION.

People this is Ed Freakin' Leamer. This is Mr. "Lets take the Con out of Econometrics", Mr. Extreme Bounds Analysis. This is not some third rate analyst at a bank or a political hack or a creepy blogger broadcasting from their mom's basement. He's for realz, so you gotta take it pretty seriously.

They are predicting one negative quarter (-.4% in the second quarter of 08) with the growth rate up to 2.5% by the end of the year.

Here is a clip from the article:

In staking out the contrarian position, Leamer noted that UCLA bucked other forecasters in 2001 by correctly predicting that year's recession.

"We got it right, and we stood alone back then," he said. In jest, he added later that he had "submitted my resignation letter, in the event I am wrong."

Whether truly in recession or not, Leamer said the economy would be sputtering. It remains so fragile that "if there is a quick halt to consumer spending, we will for sure have a recession in 2008," he added.

"The question is whether [2008] will be disappointing or horrible; our forecast is disappointing," he said in an interview.

The Anderson forecasters contend that the economy has been wounded mainly by the collapse of residential real estate. The number of jobs overall will continue to increase, but not at a pace fast enough to employ the growing numbers of people seeking work.

National unemployment will peak at 5.6% at the beginning of 2009, according to the forecast, from 4.8% currently.

My Wife's Solution: LB

I was working on a letter of recommendation last night, about 9 pm.

Hadn't noticed that my wife had walked into my office behind me.

Suddenly, she makes this announcement, startling me first with the sound,
and then with the content.

Her announcement: "If I ever catch YOU with a prostitute, remember two words: 'Lorena Bobbitt.'"

Then, she walks out.

If you marry an Italian woman, there are certain consequences, costs to be paid.

But at least one always knows where one stands. Because she'll tell you.

Markets in Everything: Yer Doin' it Rong!

Special Swedish Edition!!

The Swedes are selling a $120 million (aka 47 euro) Rembrandt painting for only $49 million. Closer inspection reveals however, that they are actually trying to sell a plaque with someone's name on it for $49 million. Confused? Don't be. They will sell you the painting on the condition that you give it right back to them. Really, I am not making this up. It will hang in the same place in the same museum for perpetuity (it's not you loaning it to them, you are giving it). Thus your $49 million buys you a mention on the plaque next to the painting: "gift of Mr Bigdummy McDummyius".

Here, let the Associated Press try to explain it:

The arts academy that owns Rembrandt's "Conspiracy of the Batavians Under Claudius Civilis" said Tuesday that it is willing to let the work go for $49 million, less than half its estimated value.

The buyer, however, must agree to donate the masterpiece to Stockholm's Nationalmuseum, where it is one of the main attractions, said Olle Granath, permanent secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy of Fine Arts.

"It has hung at the Nationalmuseum since 1866. That's where it's going to stay," Granath told The Associated Press, adding that the cash-strapped academy is selling the painting to raise money for exhibitions and other activities.

The Rembrandt was valued at $120 million, but the academy was ready to offer a 60 percent discount because of the condition to donate it to the waterfront museum.

By the way, over at MR, Tyler has another Yer doin' it Rong edition of markets in everything up, though he neglected to label it as such. His is from the Netherlands.

If just saying Barack's middle name is a no-no, what about this??

On the cover of the latest "National Enquirer". Below Patrick Swayze, to the right of Britney and above Starr Jones sits BHO:



Here is a link to the article in the Enquirer and here is a link to Brendan Nyhan's analysis.

Holy Crap people.

Will the last Republicans left please turn off the lights?

I have been told that one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while always expecting a different outcome. On these grounds, much of the Republican Congressional delegation is clearly insane. They still seem to believe that anti-immigrant nativist bilge is a big vote winner for them:

WASHINGTON - House Republicans are trying to force action on a Democratic-written immigration enforcement measure, the latest GOP attempt to elevate the volatile issue into an election-year wedge.Republican leaders hope that by pushing the bill — endorsed by 48 centrist Democrats and 94 Republicans — they can drive Democrats into a politically painful choice: Backing a tough immigration measure that could alienate their base, including Hispanic voters, or being painted as soft on border security in conservative-leaning districts.

The plan is fraught with political risks for both parties. A full-blown immigration debate could call attention to Republicans' divisions at a time when their expected presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, is fighting to gain the trust of the GOP base.

Since Tancredo and his posse did so well in the Republican primaries, I guess this really is a good idea, eh??

Elliott Sptizer Plays Claude Frollo, All Too Well

Gov. Elliot Spitzer (D-N.Y.) acknowledged in a very brief statement, Monday, that he had violated the obligations he had to his family and the public, though he offered no specific comments about a report that he was involved in a prostitution ring.

"I am disappointed that I failed to live up to the standard I set for myself," Spitzer said. "I must now dedicate some time to regain the trust of my family." (ATSRTWT)

The "standard"? You mean, like, the LAW? You mean, like, the marriage promises he made to his wife to be faithful, which certainly imply NOT PAYING HIGH PRICED CALL GIRLS TO SLIDE UP AND DOWN HIS NYFD-APPROVED FIRE POLE?

Spitzer is a guy who really went out of his day to do the sanctimonious thing. This call-girl admission by Marse Elliot is every bit as big as Jimmy Swaggart, and for the same reason. If you worship at the secular church of the law, you have to obey the law.

Two thoughts:
"Take the Money and Run," Steve Miller. Spitzer is Billy Mac
Billy Mac, is a detective down in Texas
And though he knows just exactly what the fact is
He ain't gonna let those two escape justice
He makes his livin' off of other people's taxes

Mr. Spitzer used tax money, paid to him to run a protection racket ("pay me, or I'll sic the LAW on ya, boy!") to pay hookers and cheat on his wife. Isn't that a problem, for a prosecutor? I know, sure, I think prostitution should be legal. But I think cheating on your wife is immoral, and breaking the law means you can't be a prosecutor.(corrected; I put "prostitute" at first. A Freudian slip...)


Thought the second: "Hunchback of Notre Dame," Victor Hugo.
Claude Frollo, the sex-obsessed prosecutor/priest, wants the girl Esmerelda hung. Why? Because Frollo can't control his sexual urges for her. It CAN'T be anyone's fault but ...hers, right? And Frollo-Spitzer says so: "Oh, it was she! still and forever she!—that fixed idea that haunted him incessantly, that tortured him, gnawed his brain, wrung his very vitals! He regretted nothing, he repented of nothing; all that he had done he was ready to do again..." (Hunchback, Book IX, Chapter 1, "Delirium.")

KPC Board Meeting! A Feast in Two Parts

Angus, the lovely Ms. Angus, and KG Mungowitz met for two very nice meals in San Antonio. Dirty Davey had asked, and I wanted to echo Angus's recommendation in comments.

Two fine restaurants in San Antonio.

Biga on the Banks. Very fine. And accommodating. Ms. Angus had a request "Give me the duck, only substitute chicken, and then hold the chicken" (you'd have to know her, it made sense at the time, it really did), and the waiter didn't flinch. Angus, having a touch of a food allergy (if he touches this food, it makes him really sick), had some requests that were handled deftly. And the food was terrific. We talked for an hour after paying the bill, on a pretty busy night, and they didn't bother us at all. Quite an upscale place, with nice atmosphere, on the River Walk, but not really pricey for all that.

Acenar. Angus heaven. Perfectly good food, better than good, in fact. Very fresh, very Mexican, right on the River Walk, moderate prices. And the colors and furniture all look as if they were designed by Dr. Seuss. I really, really liked their grilled fish tacos. But it looked like everything was good.

Colombia is winning their battle against the FARC

It was a bad week for the FARC. First Paul Reyes was killed in his Ecuadorian sanctuary (just like on "The Wire", his cell phone gave him away). Second, even though Chavez rattled sabers, mobilized troops and got his pals to do the same, the Colombians pretty much got away with it. Sure, they apologized and said they'd not do it again, but there was also anti-harboring language in the agreement and then there was this too:



Third, FARC honcho, Ivan Rios was killed by his own people and his body (or parts of it) turned over the the Colombian Government. Fourth, FARC topdog Manuel Marulanda is reported to be gravely ill and under medical care somewhere in Venezuela. Fifth, the info on the laptops found at Reyes' camp in Ecuador show the FARC admitting to atrocities they'd denied publically. Sixth, arms dealing pariah Viktor Bout (what a great name; it's like a wrestling ring name) was arrested in Thailand in a sting operation and stands accused of supplying weapons to the FARC.

So after over 40 years of fighting the FARC, two top leaders are killed in a week, international repercussions from the cross-border raid were minimal, the FARC supreme commander is gravely ill, more damaging info about the FARC is coming to light, and one of their main arms dealers is well and truly busted. Ouch.

WWAD?

This morning, at the Public Choice meetings...Ms. Angus was a discussant on a paper.

The guy giving the paper, just as he was getting started, says: "Oh, and this is work in progress. So, I have continued to work and make progress in the two weeks since I sent the paper to the discussant. So, it's pretty different."

Now, Ms. Angus is nice. She can take care of herself just fine, but she is too nice to be an ass about this.

But me? I said to myself: "WWAD?" (What would Angus do?)

So, I shouted, from the back of the room, "Thanks for coming, discussant!"

I think all of us should ask, every day, in every way: "WWAD?" And then do it. Just do it.

KGM: KPC's Man in Texas

So, I'm here for the Public Choice meetings. Lots of unintentional comedic fashion, and I'm sure I'm part of the show, given my fashion non-sense and ballon-like body.

There were three things salient about my first day.

1. Weather. Really, really cold and windy. And rainy. Mid-40s, 20-25 mph wind, pouring rain on and off. I went for two pretty long walks. It was really cold. Would have been better if I had brought a jacket, I suppose.

2. Food. Obviously one of SA's strong points. For breakfast, I went primal: G/M Steakhouse, across from the Alamo. One of my favorites, for years. You pretty much can't spend more than $8.00, including everything, and that's if you get the main dish, chicken fried steak. I got two tacos, carne guisada and huevos con chorizo, and a coffee. $4.30. The carne guisada is just like abuelita would have made. G/M has many choices, with pancakes and pretty much any "American" breakfast you want. Cheap, solid, real breakfast.

For lunch, I went to Schilos, the famous German deli. Three things are reputed to be worth the trip: split pea soup, Rueben sandwich, and cheesecake. Since these things are all Mungowitz faves anyway...what the hell? I had been walking in polar temperatures without a jacket for an hour, so the calories weren't such a problem. The verdict: Split pea soup--very nice. It helped that I was cold. But yum. Thick and good. Rueben--deceptive. Disappointing appearance, especially if you are used to the east coast presentation of huge sandwich, fried bread, etc. The Schilos Rueben is just two slices of bread, with thousand island dressing, corned beef, and sauer kraut. BUT: Wow. What a difference ingredients make. You wouldn't want to hide this with breading or frying. The rye bread was the best I've had... well...ever.(If you DON'T like strong rye bread, don't get this sandwich). Ditto corned beef: wonderful. A very, very good sandwich. Cheesecake: It was fine. But nothing special. I think the Rueben's remarkable simple goodness had raised my expectations.

Dinner: Out with the publisher for _________, on their dime. We went to Saltgrass Steakhouse. On the riverwalk. They have Shiner Bock draft, which would be silly anywhere else. But it is brewed in SA, so go for it. I think of Shiner Bock as the beer grad students serve because it's cheap, but it has acquired a certain export cachet elsewhere. We all order steaks. I get the Porterhouse, because I am hungry. The salad is okay, nothing special, too much cheese and too much dressing, mostly on iceberg lettuce. Typical steakhouse mediocre salad. Bread is okay. The steak, and fried onions, on the other hand, are tremendous. I don't get steak often, and I admit I was hungry, but this was just about perfect. Cooked just right, tender, juicy: wonderful. I wouldn't want to do that every night, but if you are going to have a steak you might as well go to a real steak place. And Saltgrass is, for the genre, not that pricey and gives good value on sides, instead of making you order them a la carte.

3. In counting, there is strength: Texas can't decide who gets what delegates. Wow! Interesting to read the paper down here. They seriously can't decide, at the county level, who gets what delegates. And, the point in Texas is to hold your county box until late, so you can send it in with the "extra" votes that your guy needs. It appears the delegates from the Texas primary, held this past Tuesday, won't be awarded for sure until...JUNE! Lots of irregularities, some just the result of not reading directions, some...well, some are more sinister. Or, maybe just strange. In the far south counties in Texas, mysterious forces are at work. One county wanted to give its two delegates to: Mike Huckabee. This in the DEMOCRATIC primary, mind you. Reading the newspaper here makes you feel you are reading Robert Caro.

Early nomination for A-Hole of the Year!

Ladies and Gentleman, as happy as I was in my previous post, I am that pissed and disgusted in this one. I give you Tripp Isenhour in all his glory as my early favorite for A-hole of 08.

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP)—PGA Tour golfer Tripp Isenhour was charged with killing a hawk on purpose with a golf shot because it was making noise as he videotaped a TV show

Isenhour was with a film crew for “Shoot Like A Pro” on Dec. 12 at the Grand Cypress Golf course. The 39-year-old golfer, whose real name is John Henry Isenhour III, was charged Wednesday with cruelty to animals and killing a migratory bird.

The charges carry a maximum penalty of 14 months in jail and $1,500 in fines.

According to court documents, Isenhour got upset when a red-shouldered hawk began making noise, forcing another take. He began hitting balls at the bird, then 300 yards away, but gave up.

Isenhour started again when the hawk moved within about 75 yards, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission officer Brian Baine indicated in a report.

Isenhour allegedly said “I’ll get him now,” and aimed for the hawk.

“About the sixth ball came very near the bird’s head, and (Isenhour) was very excited that it was so close,” Baine wrote.

A few shots later, witnesses said he hit the hawk. The bird, protected as a migratory species, fell to the ground bleeding from both nostrils.

Isenhour’s agent, John Mascatello with SFX World Sports Management, did not immediately return an e-mail or telephone message Thursday.

“He just kept saying how he didn’t think he could have hit it, which I think is a stupid thing for a PGA Tour golfer to say,” said Jethro Senger, a sound engineer at the shoot. “He can put a ball in a hole from hundreds of yards away, and here he is hitting line drives at something that’s, I don’t know, a couple hundred feet away?”

Senger said it was “basically like a joke to (Isenhour).” He said no one in the roughly 15-person crew intervened, and many later regretted it.

“It was one of those cases where there’s some trepidation on whether or not they should speak up and do something,” Senger said.

Senger said the killing was not captured on video. The bird was buried at the golf course and later dug up by Florida investigators.

Isenhour, of Salisbury, N.C., turned pro in 1990. He had two wins on the Nationwide Tour in 2006.

What an ass. I mean to just stand there and hit at the thing til you kill it for absolutely no reason other than you are an ass and a sorry excuse for a human. Shoot like a pro indeed.

Rejoicing in Okieland!

It's nervewracking to have students on the job market. For me at least, the responsibility for their placement is a heavy one. So I am thrilled to report that as of yesterday, all three of my students on the market have accepted tenure-track jobs! Two (a couple) at the University of Colorado-Denver and one (who I co-directed with Mrs. Angus) at the B-school of Oklahoma City University. Congratulations guys, go out and keep making us Okie-proud!

Neologism

So, my boys at 'Dome continue that crack reporting. And, to RMB's credit, points out that we live in a bizarrely self-referring age.

I can now prove that "chilly punk'd" is an actual phrase.

The proof is that it appears in "the Urban Dictionary."

And that reference points to my original claim that the phrase exists.

(Thanks to KPC main man prison rodeo, though, for the ACTUAL word, in comments. SOMEBODY knows what's going on. If you want to know dudespeak, you can't rely on GOOGLE as your reference library. GOOGLE is so five minutes ago.)

New Music from Old Favorites

Two very strong groups that have been quiet for quite a while announced new albums this week.

First the excellent German collective The Notwist will be releasing "The Devil, You, & Me" in May and will be touring Europe to support it. They last released an album, the outstanding "Neon Golden", 6 years ago. Here is a track.

Second, The Tindersticks will release "The Hungry Saw" at the end of May. More information including a track can be found on their myspace page here.

Groundhog Day

Last night, Hillary Clinton saw her shadow and now we will be treated to 6 more weeks (at least) of this race to the bottom also known as the Democratic Presidential nominating process. Winning the popular votes in Ohio and Texas keeps Hill alive at least to the April 22nd PA primary and most likely beyond.

The conventional wisdom is that further Dem infighting helps McCain. Indeed his new pal, Fla. Governor Crist, has helpfully offered to schedule a do-over for the debacle that was (wasn't?) the Florida Democratic Primary. That guy has VEEP written all over him!

The Other Other White Meat

Eat a whale and save the planet, a Norwegian pro-whaling lobby said on Monday of a study showing that harpooning the giant mammals is less damaging to the climate than farming livestock.

The survey, focused on whale boats' fuel use, showed that a kilo (2.2 lbs) of whale meat represented just 1.9 kilo (4.2 lbs) of greenhouse gases against 15.8 for beef, 6.4 for pork and 4.6 for chicken.

"Basically it turns out that the best thing you can do for the planet is to eat whale meat compared to other types of meat," said Rune Froevik of the High North Alliance, which represents the interests of coastal communities in the Arctic.

"Greenhouse gas emissions caused by one meal of beef are the equivalent of eight meals of whale meat," the study said.

Mungowitz: can I get a Amen??

Sometimes this stuff just writes itself!

Stones guitarist is new frontman for

Louis Vuitton

Fair enough, but I wonder why they didn't go a bit more subtle and use this guy??

Chilipunk'd!

Can you really be a competent, professional reporter in the year 2008 if you don't know the verb "to punk". As in "Punk'd!", the Ashton Kutcher tv show?

Admittedly, I used a variant. But c'mon.

Here's how it went down.

The News and Observer, my home town paper (and it's a pretty good paper) had this story. The gist is that lots of races in the NC Gen Assembly will be unopposed.

I protested, via email. The filing period just passed is for the PRIMARY, in May. The Libertarian Party juggernaut (it's a JUGGERNAUT, I tell you!) is finishing up its signature drive, and will soon be able to post candidates to the GENERAL ELECTION, in November.

So, not unopposed, at all.

I went a little nuts. Sent an email. To credit of N&O, they blogged it up, immediately. The appropriate response, no complaints.

Except, in the blog entry, we find this admission:

He also said that Dome's failure to mention the possibility of Libertarian candidates "chilipunked" him. We have no earthly idea what that verb means.

KPC readers! My (mis)spelling aside, let's tell the N&O what "chili punk'd" means! Comment here, and help me out!

Colombian incursion into Ecuador kills Colombian Rebel leader, and Venezuela prepares for war???

Hugo Chavez is a gamer, people. Always ready to get involved. Let's spin this one out:

Colombian military attacks a FARC camp across its own border inside Ecuador. Kills a top FARC guy, maybe its #2 guy, Raul Reyes.

Chavez then starts putting troops on its border with Colombia and mobilizing his armed forces:

Chavez called the killing of Reyes and the other rebels an attack by a "terrorist state," saying Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is a "criminal."

"Mr. Defense Minister, move 10 battalions to the border with Colombia for me, immediately — tank battalions. Deploy the air force," Chavez said during his Sunday radio and television program.

Meanwhile, the Colombians are playing it cool:

Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos said Monday that his government isn't moving any troops and "we have the situation under control."

"We prefer to leave President Chavez out of this discussion," Santos told Caracol radio. "We don't mention that person, we don't make any comments on what he says, does or suggests."

And the Americans don't see what the fuss is about:

A U.S. State Department spokesman, Tom Casey, said the United States supports Colombia's right to defend itself against the FARC and called for dialogue between Colombia and Ecuador.

"From our perspective this is an issue between Colombia and Ecuador," he said. "I'm not sure what this has to do with Venezuela."

Maybe Chavez is mad because he knew about the information on the laptop computers the Colombians allegedly found in the FARC camp. They've released info claiming among other things that the FARC had financially supported Chavez in the past and Chavez was financially supporting the FARC in the present.

Leaving aside the issue of the cross-border incursion into Ecuador, "getting" Reyes is a huge coup for Colombia. The FARC really seems to be hurting, and the further revelations of ties to Chavez, if they pan out, won't be helping them any either inside or outside of Colombia.

I wonder if Chavez is trying to get out in front of the damaging information he knew to be forthcoming, or if he just can't stand anyone making headlines in South American besides him?

I knew this blogging stuff would pay off

hat tip to E.D.

Munger Bumper Sticker, Seen in the Wild!

A Munger for Governor bumper sticker, seen in its native habitat: Chapel Hill! At the corner of Rosemary and Columbia.

(Photo Credit to DS)

Mark on the Mark

Dr. Perry nails several topics.

First, this. Productivity is a real problem. We should all still be using hand tools, right? Well, maybe not.

And then, this. As Angus notes earlier today, clearly Hillary is just lying about her desire to revoke NAFTA. Right? She can't be serious.

Cleveland nights

Obama is starting to scare me some. He's winning the Democratic nomination, kicking Hillary's butt with the rhetoric of hope and change. He's got the sophisticated advisors, he gets it right the first time.

But holy crap, people, have you seen the stuff coming out of his mouth in Ohio? Isn't it astonishing? Either it's simply wink-wink posturing, in which case how's he a break from business as usual? or he means it which makes you wonder what Austan Goolsbee's been smoking.

He is 100% committed to re-negotiating or pulling out of NAFTA? The vehemence of the rhetoric is so far out of line with the reality of the situation, that it must be a farce, but can it be? Obama the Cynic? He's even channelling his inner Ricky Bobby, loudly proclaiming "I pray to Jesus every night".

Hillary is even funnier of course, but I already expected that and have her pegged. It's pure cynicial pandering on her part. She knows good and well that NAFTA hasn't hurt the US and she probably even knows that the top two destinations for Ohio's exports are Mexico and Canada.

Condomnomics at Duke and Brown

Unwrapping the economics of condoms.

It's all about the opportunity costs.

And the protection. It's about the TRADE protection. An anti-infant industry argument?

Duckman....on Life

I like Duckman.

Some days, I actually FEEL like Duckman. Feel his rage.

Kudos to Jason Alexander for voicing this bizarre cartoon. Not everybody would do this. Kudos.

(And a nod, as always, to Tex. His rage nearly matches Duckman's)

And now for something completely different

As a way to learn and then retain our Spanish language skilz, Mrs. Angus and I often watch telenovelas. One thing that always baffled me was, if someone, no matter how shady, filed a written charge against another person, that person went straight into custody. Presumed guilty. We were told by our Chilango friends that this portrayal didn't stretch the truth too far.

But now, thing may be changing as the Mexican Congress has voted to enshrine the presumption of innocence into the Constitution:

Mexican lawmakers overwhelmingly approved a sweeping judicial reform that would introduce public, oral trials and guarantee the presumption of innocence... President Felipe Calderón praised the measure, which would replace closed-door proceedings where judges rely on written evidence with U.S.-style open trials based on arguments presented by prosecutors and defense lawyers.

"Changing from an inquisitorial system, like the one Mexico has today, to an adversarial system based on oral trials, as are used in the American justice system, will provide much greater transparency, much more agility in the administration of justice," Calderón told a meeting of the American Chamber of Commerce.

Interesting. Maybe Barry Bonds and Roger Clemons should get their cases moved south of the border!

Letter from Doha

Neanderbill writes:

Thursday, February 28, 2008
Letter # 4
And yet another greeting from Doha,

1. Trouble in Paradise
Apparently not every expatriate is treated as well as Education City professors. As I understand it, in order to work in Qatar, you need to be sponsored by an employer. If you work for Carnegie Mellon, they take good care of you. In fact they take amazingly good care of you.

But suppose you are a construction worker from Nepal, or a housemaid from India. Depending on your employer, this may not be such a good deal. And even though you come in through the front door, so to speak, in some ways you are not as well of as, say, an undocumented Mexican in the US. Why? Because an undocumented Mexican can always quit one job and seek another. If you are in Qatar because your employer sprang for the blood tests and chest x-rays that are required, your employer has a stake in you, and may not be willing to let you take advantage of a labor market. Or you may have had to “pay” all of that plus transportation, and owe it to your employer out of your wages.

There is a website that has the following definition.

Qatar: A slave state in the Gulf where deceived, unsuspecting, and poor laborers are exploited for the benefit of Land Cruisers and late model mobile phones for unapologetic and heartless Qataris.

As the website says, the Indian government won’t send women to be domestic servants because of experiences of exploitation of all kinds. Is this website fair-minded and objective, as I have made the case for Aljazeera? Obviously not. But there is a problem here. And the Qatari government blocks this website, though it permits it at Education City. All in all, this is not a good situation.

2. On the other hand …
Qatar is the only one of 21 Arab states not to sign a “Charter of Principles” designed to rein in satellite TV talk shows that might embarrass Arab governments. (Thanks to my very knowledgeable cousin Marlene Kasting for bringing this to my attention.) And Aljazeera English, which I have praised in an earlier letter, had a documentary on such problems in the Persian Gulf, with specific mention of Qatar. It was a half hour show called “Blood, Sweat and Tears.” My colleague Silvia Pessoa, who brought many of these issues to my attention, gave me a DVD of the show.

3. Kite Runner
The Education City faculty organization sponsored a viewing of the film Kite Runner, which I had read. It is remarkably true to book in terms of specific events, but not nearly as compelling. The producer of the film, Walter Parkes, spoke afterwards. Since Afghanistan is busy with war these days, they had to film it in Kashgar, China, which is in the far west of Xinjiang province. Two Afghanis here have said that that is just what Kabul looked like in the seventies, even to the modern ranch house that Baba and Amir lived in.

I had a chance to ask Parkes what it was like filming in China, and whether the Chinese government put any restrictions on them. Except for one thing, the answer was not at all. There is a stoning scene at halftime at a football (soccer) game. When the Chinese government found out that they were going to assemble thousands of Uyghers (a Muslim minority) in one stadium, they thought that that was not a good idea. Parkes said that five or six black Suburbans rolled up with drivers talking on cell phones. Can’t be done. So the stoning / football stadium scene was filmed near Beijing, I think, with a veneer of Uyghers in front, and the rest of the crowd, whose faces you could not see, were Chinese.

I had never known how to pronounce Uygher. Was a little disappointed to find that it’s pronounced “weeger,” if only because it sounds too much like a casual deck shoe that you can order by mail from LL Bean in Freeport, ME.

By the way, in looking up Kashgar, I discovered that Afghanistan has a little panhandle that touches China. This made me think of Mad Magazine’s apocryphal Panhandle Airlines, which flew to and from panhandles in West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Alaska. Now they can be an international airline.

4. {NeanderSpouse}

While I’m thanking people, I should thank George Tsebelis for reminding us of Skype, with which you can talk from computer to computer free. Now {NeanderSpouse} and I can literally talk every day, instead of email chat. I am happy to say that she will arrive in Doha Thursday, March 7, and we won’t need any kind of electronic devices to communicate. We can hardly wait.

Neanderbill

Funny that George Tsebilis reminds Neanderbill of Skype. George T reminds me of a Greek Fred Flintstone.

Stop, Or I'll Criticize!

From the Economist:

When China's two stock exchanges were created in 1990, the chief goal was to use private savings to restructure state-owned firms. Investors received only minority stakes and limited sway over corporate governance. Equally important, both exchanges were run by bureaucrats, so there were fewer incentives to increase their value by attracting companies and punters. There was little effective competition between them.

Over the past 18 years, China has introduced rules against market manipulation, fraud and insider dealing, but enforcement remains patchy. The China Securities Regulatory Commission seems competent but overwhelmed. Sometimes it takes years to issue penalties after lengthy investigations—and along the way cases lose relevance.

In the meantime, the exchanges have quietly begun to acquire authority. The power that they wield appears flimsy—the most serious penalty they can levy is a rebuke to firms and individuals through public notices. But it is remarkably effective in a country with a long history of punishment by humiliation—think of the cangue, a rectangular slab around the neck, in pre-Communist times and dunce caps in the Cultural Revolution.

Messrs Liebman and Milhaupt write that between 2001 and 2006 the exchanges publicly criticised 205 companies and almost 1,700 people. They looked at the share prices of the targeted firms both when they disclosed the conduct for which they were being criticised and when the criticism was published. The admissions typically preceded the rebukes, and in the few weeks that followed the firms' share prices underperformed the Shanghai stockmarket by an average of up to 6% (see left-hand chart). After the criticism, there was a further lag of up to 3% on average (see right-hand chart).

(Nod to Neanderbill)

I'm Glad I Don't Live in Morocco

Apparently, in Morocco you can be jailed just for being an ass.

Angus and I would both be incarcerated, pretty much forever, if this guy was arrested for "villainous practices."

In grad school, Angus and I were in an office in the CSAB, now the Weidenbaum Center. While in that office, during the day, when there were lots of very serious people there, I did the following:

1. Routinely tried to see how many syllables I could put into the word "f**k", at the top of my lungs, with door open.
2. Once wrote a poem as a means of taking a message. A prof that Angus was working for came by, looking for Angus. I wrote the following poem, and put it on Angus's chair: "BLANK came by, was looking for you. Said to call him, if you're back before two. But as usual, his brain was pure goo." BLANK came back a little later, when I was out, and found the note. Took it back to his office. Clearly, he considered me to have engaged in villainous practices.

In Morocco, they would have forgotten my name by now. Mungowitz is in jail forever.

(nod to Jason T)

UPDATE: A useful followup. For the Moroccan story, I mean.

Strike a Poseur

So, I'm walking towards Perkins Library yesterday. This kid I know, a senior, a great guy, is standing there. Clogs, capri pants, leather man purse with flower embroidered strap across opposite shoulder, a hip length bhurka coat, long scarf wrapped into a knot that exposes his neck, cigarette smoldering, sun glasses (it's a cloudy day), and one of those knit hats with the long stringy ear flaps that trail guides wear.

I stop. I stare. He pulls the cig from his mouth. "What?"

I say, "You are either the biggest hipster, or the biggest poseur, I have ever met."

He laughs, I go in.

He emails later: "I can't believe you called me a poser (sic). I'm just being real."

I respond: "You know the difference between 'poser' and 'poseur'? A poser is a difficult question, a puzzle. A poseur is someone who dresses like you, but doesn't know the difference between the words 'poser' and 'poseur.'"

Went on: "Let me use them in a sentence: 'Gosh, it's a poser to explain why {name} is such a poseur.'"

All day I had felt kind of sick. But after that, I felt much better. As Madonna said: Strike a poseur.

But, Then Why Do They Spend Money On It?

Does intraday technical analysis in the U.S. equity market have value?

Ben Marshall, Rochester Cahan & Jared Cahan
Journal of Empirical Finance, March 2008, Pages 199-210

Abstract:
This paper investigates whether intraday technical analysis is profitable in
the U.S. equity market. Surveys of market participants indicate that they
place more emphasis on technical analysis (and less on fundamental analysis)
the shorter the time horizon; however, the technical analysis literature to
date has focused on long-term technical trading rules. We find, using two
bootstrap methodologies, that none of the 7846 popular technical trading
rules we test are profitable after data snooping bias is taken into account.
There is no evidence that the market is inefficient over this time horizon.

Spanish for Your Nanny

You have probably seen this.

But....I laughed. Fuerte.

And, all too true. The whole nanny gig is pretty rough.

(Nod to Neanderbill)

Poor Roger

I am Clemens.

Nod to Bayou Jack.

Choosing, Vouching, and Chartering: Coming Soon to a School Near You

The effect of charter schools on traditional public school students in
Texas: Are children who stay behind left behind?

Kevin Booker, Scott Gilpatric, Timothy Gronberg & Dennis Jansen
Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
Texas has been an important player in the emergence of the charter school industry. We test for a competitive effect of charters by looking for changes in student achievement in traditional public schools following charter market penetration. We use an eight-year panel of data on individual student test scores for public schools students in Texas in order to evaluate the achievement impact of charter schools. We estimate a model that includes student/campus spell fixed effects to control for campus demographic and peer group characteristics, and to control directly for student and student family background characteristics. We find a positive and significant effect of charter school penetration on traditional public school student outcomes.

-------------------------

Does school choice increase the rate of youth entrepreneurship?

Russell Sobel & Kerry King
Economics of Education Review, forthcoming

Abstract:
Because entrepreneurial activity is a key source of economic growth, promoting youth entrepreneurship has become a priority for policymakers. School choice programs force administrators and teachers to be more entrepreneurial in their jobs by encouraging innovation and by creating competition and a more business-like environment in K-12 education. Does going to school in this climate make students more likely to become
entrepreneurs? In this paper we test whether youth entrepreneurship rates are higher in counties with school choice programs. We find that voucher programs create higher rates of youth entrepreneurship, while charter schools do not, relative to traditional public schools.

-------------------------

The political economy of school choice: Support for charter schools across states and school districts

Christiana Stoddard & Sean Corcoran
Journal of Urban Economics, July 2007, Pages 27-54

Abstract:
Public charter schools are one of the fastest growing education reforms in the US, currently serving more than a million students. Though the movement for greater school choice is widespread, its implementation has been uneven. State laws differ greatly in the degree of latitude granted charter schools, and-holding constant state support-states and localities vary widely in the availability of and enrollment in these schools. In this paper, we use a panel of demographic, financial, and school performance data to examine the support for charters at the state and local levels. Results suggest that growing population heterogeneity and income inequality-in addition to persistently low student outcomes-are associated with greater support for
charter schools. Teachers unions have been particularly effective in slowing or preventing liberal state charter legislation; however, conditional on law passage and strength, local participation in charter schools rises with the share of unionized teachers.

--------------------------

Tiebout choice and universal school vouchers

Eric Brunner & Jennifer Imazeki
Journal of Urban Economics, January 2008, Pages 253-279

Abstract:
This paper examines who is likely to gain and who is likely to lose under a universal voucher program. Following Epple and Romano [D. Epple, R.E. Romano, Competition between private and public schools, vouchers, and peer group effects, American Economic Review 88 (1998) 33-62; D. Epple, R.E. Romano, Neighborhood schools, choice, and the distribution of educational benefits, in: C.M. Hoxby (Ed.), The Economics of School Choice, The Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2003, pp. 227-286], and Nechyba [T.J. Nechyba, Mobility, targeting, and private school vouchers, American Economic Review 90 (2000) 130-146; T.J. Nechyba, Introducing school choice into multidistrict public school systems, in: C.M. Hoxby (Ed.), The Economics of School Choice, The Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2003, pp. 145-194], we focus on the idea that gains and losses under a universal voucher depend on two effects: changes in peer group composition and changes in housing values. We show that the direction and magnitude of each of these effects hinge critically on market structure, i.e., the amount of school choice that already exists in the public sector. In markets with little or no Tiebout choice, potential changes in peer group composition create an incentive for
high-socioeconomic (SES) households to vote for the voucher and for low-SES households to vote against voucher. In contrast, in markets with significant Tiebout choice, potential changes in housing values create an incentive for high-SES households to vote against the voucher and for low-SES households to vote for the voucher. Using data on vote outcomes from California's 2000 voucher initiative, we find evidence consistent with those predictions.

(Nod to KL)

Baseball: All Beautiful

Ode to baseballs, and beginnings.

Thanks to the Mayor for the tip.

Mark Perry beat me to it!

I love to slam the inane ramblings of the WSJs editorial pages. Today though, my friend and co-author Mark Perry beat me to the punch with an excellent analysis of Ranson's Ramblings from today's Journal.

The OTHER endorsement we've all been waiting for

Greg Oden has endorsed Barack Obama for President, pretty much guaranteeing the rich giants with mohawks vote for Obama.

It was clearly a well-informed decision; here's Greg on the process:

What I got from talking to him is that he is a real sports fan and he knew about the Blazers. He said that when I come back Brandon, LaMarcus and I will be a force next year. He also asked me about my knee, and he said he wasn't feeling my mohawk - lol. I laughed and explained to him that it's just a haircut to me and he told me he liked how I handle myself as a young man - "Thanks Mom." I did not talk politics with him. He talks about that stuff all the time and I'm going to keep learning more about the issues.

The Endorsement We Have All Been Waiting For

Words fail me.

The KKK is, for now, withholding its endorsement for Barack Obama.

Quite a web site. The music is nice, don't you think?

(Nod to KL)

I vant to be a Loan

Development Aid and International Politics: Does membership on the UN
Security Council influence World Bank decisions?

Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland
Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We investigate whether elected members of the UN Security Council receive
favorable treatment from the World Bank, using panel data for 157 countries
over the period 1970-2004. Our results indicate a robust positive
relationship between temporary UN Security Council membership and the number
of World Bank projects a country receives, even after accounting for
economic and political factors, as well as regional, country and year
effects. The size of World Bank loans, however, is not affected by UN
Security Council membership.

(Nod to KL)

Massive Power Outage in Central FLA

Bad times in Central Florida.

No word on cause, yet.

4 million people without AC. Even in Feb, that's a problem down there.

Why are the Fed and the ECB acting so differently?

Bernanke and the Fed have been cutting rates like there's no tomorrow. Frequent, large cuts. Trichet and the ECB have been standing pat. No cuts and rhetoric like there's not going to be cuts. Last month I mused that this was an interesting natural experiment about which way was the best way.

Could it be that the ECB is more independent? After all, they have an explicit inflation target and they don't face the same kind of election year pressures that the Fed faces. Or maybe they don't forecast the same looming disaster that the Fed might be forecasting, being relative rookies to the central banking game and all.

An intriguing third possibility now comes from Finnish economist Mika Widgrén via VoxEU. He argues that the unwieldy nature of the ECBs Executive Board (their analog to the FOMC) introduces inertia and status quo bias, preventing the institution from acting as "nimbly" as the FED.

"In the Governing Council, the one-national-central-bank-one-vote principle was intended to ensure that governors of national central banks would participate as independent actors, not as national stake-holders. Nothing guarantees that, though. Moreover, expanding EMU membership increases the voting share of the Central Bank Governors and makes the consequent numbers or inefficiency problem more severe. Indeed, in earlier studies (see footnote 3), co-authors and I argued that in an expanding Euroland it would become highly unlikely that Governing Council could pass optimal policies correspond to Euroland’s aggregated preferences. Moreover, there would be substantial risk of sticking to status quo when facing asymmetric shocks. In sum, Governing Council decisions might be too conservative and biased towards the status quo."

Interesting. Which policy road is rights and why are the two authorities differing so dramatically?

Vote early Vote often

Bookseller Magazine has announced the shortlist for its annual Diagram Prize for the oddest titled book. Here are the nominees:

1. I Was Tortured By the Pygmy Love Queen

2. How to Write a How to Write Book

3. Are Women Human? And Other International Dialogues

4. Cheese Problems Solved

5. If You Want Closure in Your Relationship, Start With Your Legs

6. People who Mattered in Southend and Beyond: From King Canute to Dr Feelgood

You can read synopses here, and you can vote here. I suggest #4 for obvious reasons (PLH McSweeney is an obvious Mungowitz pseudonym, no?), but we do live in a democracy, so have at it people!! NB. polls close March 28th.

Rhymes with "Stitch"

Motivated to Penalize: Women's Strategic Rejection of Successful Women

Elizabeth Parks-Stamm, Madeline Heilman & Krystle Hearns
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, February 2008, Pages 237-247

Abstract:
Two studies tested the hypothesis that females penalize women who succeed in male gender-typed jobs to salvage their own self-views regarding competence. The authors proposed that women are motivated to penalize successful women (i.e., characterize them as unlikable and interpersonally hostile) to minimize the self-evaluative consequences of social comparison with a highly successful female target. Results supported the hypothesis. Whereas both male and female participants penalized successful women, blocking this penalization reduced female-but not male-participants' self-ratings of competence (Study 1). Moreover, positive feedback provided to female participants about their potential to succeed (Study 2) weakened negative reactions to successful women without costs to subsequent self-ratings of
competence. These results suggest that the interpersonal derogation of successful women by other women functions as a self-protective strategy against threatening upward social comparisons.

Globalization, Yer doin' it Wrong!

It's another Japanese entry. The Michelin Guide has started giving out stars for Tokyo restaurants; many say thanks but no thanks!

"Many prominent figures of the Tokyo food world, however, are saying to Michelin, in effect, thanks for all the attention (which we deserve), but you still do not know us or our cuisine.

Food critics, magazines and even the governor of Tokyo have questioned the guide’s choice of restaurants and ratings. A handful of chefs proudly proclaimed that they had turned down chances to be listed. One, Toshiya Kadowaki, said his nouveau Japonais dishes, including a French-inspired rice with truffles, did not need a Gallic seal of approval.

“Japanese food was created here, and only Japanese know it,” Mr. Kadowaki said in an interview. “How can a bunch of foreigners show up and tell us what is good or bad?”

With all the doubts about Michelin’s understanding of Japanese tastes, some chefs say a rating in the guide has become a liability. Kunio Tokuoka, head chef at the high-end restaurant Kitcho, said the main Tokyo branch of his restaurant refused a listing in Michelin for fear of turning off customers seeking authentic Japanese cuisine."

With progress like this, I can see Japan opening up its markets and a grand Doha deal blooming any day now!!

Blowin' in the wind

Tyler Cowen has been very very good to me. We've been friends for 18 years. He convinced me to try traveling outside the USA, he was the matchmaker for my marriage to Mrs. Angus, he turned me on the genius of Antoine Oleyant, he occasionally links to KPC and quadruples our daily volume. So I pretty much try to stay on his good side.

But, in Tyler's most recent NY Times column, he announced, to blogospheric acclaim, that the upcoming US elections probably won't amount to a hill of beans: "This election is certainly important. But based on the historical record, it isn’t likely to result in a major swing in economic policy."

I beg to differ.

Our current status quo is a fairly liberal / populist-ish Democratic Majority in both houses, being held somewhat in check by a witless, right-ish, hawk-ish President whose main weapon is the veto and a large enough minority to block overrides. If Barack Obama is our next president, it seems to me we will have a President to the left of the median in either chamber of Congress and the only restraining influence would be the filibuster threat in the Senate. I am no George Tsebelis (but then again, who is?) but given that McCain would probably be kind of a more sentient and honorable Bush, a President Obama, given the current Congress (which isn't going to move to the right in the election) would make for a big change in where the veto players are located.

I would predict potentially large changes in our trade policies, in tax rates for business and higher earning individuals (isn't Obama in favor of letting Bush cuts expire and also lifting the income cap on FICA taxes?), a large increase in government "green" initiatives with our lovely ethanol policy as a guidepost. I'd also predict a potentially large change in our security policy and our methods of diplomacy, which to be fair Tyler also acknowledges.

Now you may like all or most of that. Cool. Vote for Barack. You may not. Cool. Vote for McCain. But I think saying that there isn't that much at stake here is incorrect.

Maybe I'm wrong, either in the differences in positions between Obama and McCain, or in the weakness of just the filibuster without the veto threat as a restraint on the Congress.

I guess Tyler's position must be that, on the economy, there won't be much difference in positions between McCain or Obama. Since he foresees big changes in foreign policy outcomes, he probably does agree that swinging the executive from the right of a liberal congress to the left of a liberal congress can make for big policy swings, but either thinks Obama is more conservative than I do, or that McCain is more big government than I do (or both!!).

I see real differences. I don't see McCain lifting the cap on FICA earnings. I don't see McCain going for publicly created "green jobs". I do see both of them "fixing" the AMT. I don't see McCain as so anti-trade as Obama.

I see parallels to 1992 when a much less liberal than Obama Bill Clinton came into office, hiked taxes, turned Hillary loose on health care and promptly got slapped with a Republican congress in the midterm elections.

There will be Hype

One thing we as a nation are still good at is creating mindless catchphrases:

Where's the Beef? Talk to the hand! Say hello to my leetle friend!

My personal favorite from last year was Don't taze me, bro!



But I am not groovin' on I drink your milkshake!!


In fact, I will go so far as to say (based only on reading reviews and seeing the trailer), that There will be Blood, just like Michael Clayton is getting the great reviews simply by being an anti-capitalism screed. We watched Michael Clayton last night. It's a two sentence movie. (1) Capitalism = Murder, (2) Lawyers are evil.

More good news for Angus

From the NY Times: Millions of Americans are giving up golf!!

As Mungowitz can tell you, Angus on a crowded, slow playing course is a heart attack waiting to happen (either my own or the one I give to someone), so maybe I will now live longer, blog stronger and have more fun on the course this coming season.

The Big Cactus comes through

Steve Kerr has to be thrilled. He rolled the dice and they came up Diesel. In Shaq's first two games with the Suns, they have out-rebounded their opposition 46-33 and 50-32. For the season (including these two games) the Suns get out-rebounded on average by 46 to 41. You gotta control your own backboard to win championships and the Suns have never been able to do that up til now.

Plus Amare has gone nuts since the trade, playing tremendous. Shaq's presence really makes things easier for Amare, plus it seems like he was happy to get rid of The Matrix.

Sure, I know Shaq has high milage and his contract goes on for a long time and a lot of money, but hey, Nash and G. Hill aren't getting any younger. Phoenix's time is now. I think they made a great move.

Wouldn't a Suns - Lakers western conference final be incredible? So many stars, so much history, so much great ball.

Web 2.0

Marc A on "Web 2.0"

He ought to know.

Separated at Birth???

This is a goodun, people. KPC pal Brian Roberts and NYTimes columnist David Brooks. Holy Spumoli!

For Gabriel Mihalache

KPC friend Gabriel recently ripped econ bloggers for no longer posting about economics (lol, imagine that!).

So here you go Gabe!

1. Maybe the Stimulus will work after all. The December 2007 JPE gives us "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates" by Sumit Agarwal, Chunlin Liu, and Nicholas S. Souleles. Here is the abstract, an ungated version can be downloaded from here)

"We use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates. We estimate the monthly response of credit card payments, spending, and debt, exploiting the unique, randomized timing of the rebate disbursement. We find that, on average, consumers initially saved some of the rebate, by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt. But soon afterward their spending increased, counter to the permanent income model. Spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained, whereas debt declined most (so saving rose most) for unconstrained consumers."

2. Researchers are finally checking their e-mail! From the crazy kids at Vox (fair and balanced?) comes "Is distance dying at last?" by Griffith, Lee, & Van Reenen. Here's a snippet (full article here):

"The well-known phenomenon of home bias in ideas is alive and well – German are quicker at citing other Germans, British quicker at citing other British, and so on. What is more interesting is how home bias has changed over time – on average the bars in the later period are lower than the bars in the earlier period. This suggests that home bias in ideas has fallen. In the later, post-1990 period, the French are only about 1% slower in citing Germans, and the Americans only about 5% slower in citing Germans inventors than the Germans themselves."

I felt the earth....move....under my feet.

A blog entry reporting on a new seismic theory.

Money quote: "A cost-effective way of averting earthquake damage," said (Member of the Knesset) Benizri, "would be to stop passing legislation on how to encourage homosexual activity in the State of Israel, which anyways causes earthquakes."

Oh, my. Seems that MK Benizri could probably win in the 10th District HR seat in NC.

(Nod to El Zorno, who spins MY world)

Gotta Love the NY Post.....

because they run stuff like this:

To illustrate graphically how important Texas is to Hill's hopes. What do you guys think, will Texas be Alamo for Billary? or instead of Davy Crockett will she end up playing the role of Santa Anna?

Instant NBA Overanalysis

Wow the J-Kidd trade by Dallas was HORRIBLE (note that this has a chance of actually being true). Kidd looked like the middle aged wife-beater that he is last night as Chris Paul ran rings abound him and the Hornets beat the Mavs.

Here are the details.

Kidd: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists to 6 turnovers and 3 steals. His team was -14 points with him on the floor.

Paul: 31 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists to 1 turnover and 9 steals. His team was +20 points with him on the floor.

Note that CP3 played 4 more minutes than did Kidd.


Meanwhile, it has become imperative that the league step in and take over the operations of the New York Knickerbockers (note that this actually might be a good idea). Last night, the team simply didn't show up for their game in Philadelphia. the 76ers scored 100 points in three quarters, the Knicks trailed by 45 at one point in the third quarter, they committed 23 turnovers (to 12 for the 76ers) and were outrebounded 43-31. Philly shot 57% from the floor agains the Knick "defense". It's probably good to remember that the 76ers stink and shouldn't be able to beat anyone this badly.