Frankly Dumb

[Robert Frank, Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming:]

"A positional externality occurs when new purchases alter the relevant context within which an existing positional good is evaluated. For example, if some job candidates begin wearing expensive custom-tailored suits, a side effect of their action is that other candidates become less likely to make favorable impressions on interviewers. From any individual job seeker's point of view, the best response might be to match the higher expenditures of others, lest her chances of landing the job fall. But this outcome may be inefficient, since when all spend more, each candidate's probability of success remains unchanged. All may agree that some form of collective restraint on expenditure would be useful. In such cases, however, it is often impractical to negotiate private solutions. Do positional externalities then become legitimate objects of public policy concern? In attempting to answer this question, I employ the classical libertarian criterion put forth by John Stuart Mill, who wrote the state may not legitimately constrain any citizen's freedom of action except to prevent harm to others. I argue that many positional externalities appear to meet Mill's test, causing not just negative feelings but also large and tangible economic costs to others who are ill-equipped to avoid them...Those conditions are precisely analogous to the ones that make military arms races between equally matched rival nations wasteful...No libertarian would think to object to a military arms control agreement on the grounds that it limited each side's freedom to spend as much as it pleased on arms. Since that was precisely the objective each sought by entering into the agreement, such an objection would be absurd on its face...I have argued elsewhere that a simpler, more promising, approach would be to abandon the current progressive income tax in favor of a more steeply progressive general consumption tax...Taxpayers would report their incomes to the tax authorities just as they do now. They would also report how much they had saved during the year, much as they do now in order to exempt money deposited in retirement accounts. People would then pay tax on their 'taxable consumption,' which is just the difference between their income and their annual savings, less a standard deduction. Rates at the margin would rise with taxable consumption. If the tax were revenue neutral, marginal rates at the top would be significantly higher than current marginal tax rates on income...Proposals to generate additional income tax revenue by raising top marginal rates invariably summon concern about possible negative effects on the incentive to save and invest. Under a progressive consumption tax, by contrast, people's incentives would be to save and invest more, even if top marginal tax rates on consumption were extremely high...it would lower the marginal costs of self-insuring against lost earning power and of leaving bequests...And given the apparent importance of context, the indirect effects of a progressive consumption tax promise to be considerably larger than the direct effects. Thus, for example, if people at the top save more and spend less on mansions, that will shift the frame of reference that influences the housing expenditures of those just below the top. So they, too, will spend less on housing, and so on all the way down the income ladder...Liberals and conservatives alike agree that our failure to save has had damaging macroeconomic consequences, that we would all be better off if we all spent less and saved and invested more. But no individual has the power to alter the aggregate savings rates...In the absence of detailed empirical evidence, a plausible conjecture is that the first expenditures that high-end consumers would reduce in response to a steeply progressive consumption tax are the same ones they have recently been increasing in response to their growing incomes. In the US, some of the most spectacular increases in high-end consumption in recent years have occurred in housing and the events families use to mark special occasions. By all accounts, such expenditures are hyper-positional."

Good lord. Robert Frank has "discovered" rent-seeking. Many of the signals that people give in interviews (arriving on time, dressing well, etc.) are not purely wasteful. They are signals of unobservable features correlated with likely performance.

But, if lazy folks could form a lobby, and lobby for the benefits inherent in BLOCKING smart, energetic people from being able to work hard to give good signals, how much would that be worth? A lot! So, even lazy people might work on that. Or pay somebody to work on it for them.

The problem is that EVERYTHING Frank points out as a cost is FAR less costly than the rent-seeking orgy he wants to start instead. Giving out the bennies he thinks are "good public policy" would cause a riot of rent-seekers. "Make smart people talk slower." "Yeah, and they don't get to wash their hair. I don't wash my hair, so people who DO wash their hair have an unfair advantage. Legislate that away!"

Rent-seeking is what people do to obtain favorable regulation. The competition for the kind of benefits Frank wants to give out would DWARF, in terms of costs, the tiny effects he claims to be worried about.

And he doesn't even realize that Tullock and Krueger pointed all this out 40 years ago. Yeesh.

As Kashdan and Klein say: "Assume the positional!" And give us taxpayers a little KY first.

(nod to KL, who likes to assume the positional, or so I hear)

All Sing

Thanks to Angus for the props.

Now, every body sing!



For most of you, the ones who can read, the words are written there in the video. For you folks from Michigan State, just hum.

Sinbad was right!

"I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."
--Hillary Clinton, speech at George Washington University, March 17, 2008.


Of course, the picture above is of Hill's landing in Bosnia. At least she does have her "head down".

My goodness people, I think she's a bigger and more shameless liar than Bill. Can it be??

Now Mungowitz can die happy

Duke is out and Davidson is in. Mungowitz must be completely delirious (as opposed to his usual level of partial delirium). Lil Davidson has their first postseason wins in over 30 years and has beaten Gonzaga (a 7 seed) and Georgetown (a 2 seed) to make the so called sweet 16.

For those who haven't yet read Mungowitz's autobiography "You can't touch this", Mungo went to Davidson and, because of his UNC roots (man crush on Dean Smith), hates his employer's main fundraising tool, Coach K's Blue Devils.

I say "so called" sweet 16 because from a quality of ball point of view, college basketball is an abomination. There are only maybe 10-20 college players that are any good at all, tops. NCAA hoops quality is at an all time low, though crazy stuff like this Davidson run and my ex-employer George Mason's run a couple years ago will keep the fanatics happy.

Congrats Mungowitz on the best Easter ever!

Markets in Everything?? Rampant Art Fraud

Everyone with a genuine Miro or Picasso print take a step forward. Not so fast, buddy!!

A ring of art counterfeiters has sold thousands of prints since 1999 bearing the forged signatures of Picasso, Miro, Dali and other famous artists to buyers around the world.

"Thousands of people will learn they ... bought a fake," said Chicago-based U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald, who announced indictments on Wednesday charging two Americans, a Spaniard from Barcelona, and two Italians from Milan and Monsummano with multiple counts of fraud.

U.S. authorities will seek to extradite the Europeans.

Sale prices ranged up to $50,000 for counterfeit prints that came with forged artists' signatures and fake certificates of authenticity that were sold in galleries, at art shows and through Internet auction site eBay, Fitzgerald said.

The counterfeits were produced in Spain and Italy, with the volume of fakes such that two of the alleged conspirators warned another one not to flood the market.

I am pretty sure that Picasso and Miro fakes have been abundant well before 1999, both because they are in high demand and because they are so easy to fake!! My advice is to collect original art by up and coming people and leave the famous artist print market to the crowds. Mrs. Angus and I started out in prints but have been moving more and more toward originals. Anybody want to buy a nice pair of Howard Hodgkin prints?

An Easter PSA from Mungowitz and Angus

Happiness: yer doin' it wrong!

At least if you're running Bhutan you are. The impoverished Himalayan nation's king has been promoting the importance of Gross National Happiness as a goal of the nation. So far the only concrete policy steps taken to raise it are (1) a smoking ban, (2) a dress code, and (3) setting limits of how much of the country can be developed.

But now the king wants to take it to the next level. How? Well he's appointed a "happiness commissioner" and the country is being surveyed about their level of happiness with an instrument "comprised of nearly 300 questions" that "take(s) several hours to complete."

Aaargh!! I'm from the government and I'm here to help you!! Run!!!

Here's some excerpts from the WSJ article linked above:

Developed in the 1980s by Bhutan's fourth king, Gross National Happiness, or GNH, is a Bhutanese twist on Gross Domestic Product. Up till now, it has not represented an actual dollar figure, but rather, a fuzzy set of principles on the environment and culture. It has produced unique policies, such as a smoking ban, strict limits on deforestation and a dress code....
its leaders want to prove that they can achieve economic growth while maintaining good governance, protecting the environment and preserving an ancient culture. To do that, they've decided to start calculating GNH. It means coming up with an actual happiness index that can be tracked over time.

"We are in the midst of great changes," Mr. Tshiteem says in an interview. The Happiness commissioner wears a red checkered Bhutanese robe, called a gho, and munches on betel nut as he looks ahead to his country's collision with the modern world. "If we are going to manage this change, we have to be able to measure it," he says.

Being right next to India, Mr. Tshiteem has developed negative views toward industries that could help soak up Bhutan's young, unskilled workers and fuel growth. On outsourcing, he says: "Stay up all night, sleep all day, I wouldn't want to see my kids in a job like that."

And on fast food and McDonald's, he wonders whether possible health problems and the impact on Bhutan's culture would outweigh the benefits of job creation and potentially higher prices for farmers. "Maybe," ventures the Happiness commissioner, "Bhutan can be a small island, free from the golden arches."

OUCH! Dude, that hurt.

The Nuge Comes Up Big

Ted Nugent on gun rights.

(Nod to AH)

Nature or Nurture in Cooperation/Defection

Heritability of cooperative behavior in the trust game

David Cesarini, Christopher Dawes, James Fowler, Magnus Johannesson, Paul
Lichtenstein & Björn Wallace
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 11 March 2008, Pages
3721-3726

Abstract:
Although laboratory experiments document cooperative behavior in humans, little is known about the extent to which individual differences in cooperativeness result from genetic and environmental variation. In this article, we report the results of two independently conceived and executed studies of monozygotic and dizygotic twins, one in Sweden and one in the United States. The results from these studies suggest that humans are endowed with genetic variation that influences the decision to invest, and to reciprocate investment, in the classic trust game. Based on these findings, we urge social scientists to take seriously the idea that differences in peer and parental socialization are not the only forces that influence variation in cooperative behavior.

(Nod to KL, who cooperates)

Check this, but don't blame me

(Disclaimer: I didn't make this up. And nobody is my home boy).

Don't hate me because I'm Munger.

Munger for Barack Obama Come help get him elected.

Actually, that's Munger, Michigan. Another reason not to hate me. Or blame me.

There Ought to Be a Law.....

A California woman was shot to death as she pleaded with emergency dispatchers to come and help her. Her death will not make the network news programs this evening, but this is the latest reminder that we must take responsibility for our own safety and not rely on the police. ATSRTWT

That is just wrong. We need a law against burglary! Oh, wait, that is against the law. We need a law against murder. Oh, that's against the law, too.

I know, we need a law that would keep honest citizens from having a gun, to defend themselves against people who break the law. That's a law we could enforce.

But....hmmmmmm....hard to say why that would help. Why would taking a gun away from ME take away the guns from the hands of people who we already know ignore the laws? It's just a non sequitur. If that woman had had a gun, she wouldn't have been on the phone, begging for help that didn't come. A republican citizenry has an obligation to participate in their own self-defense, and a free people have a right to do so.

Are we a free republican people, or not?

(nod to Instapundit, via AH)

Opera can be hazardous to your health

Performing opera, that is. But at least you get to dress up and canoodle with hot chicks:

Friday roundup

1. Bill Clinton ruined his superbowl for nothing.

“I believe he is the kind of once-in-a-lifetime leader that can bring our nation together and restore America’s moral leadership in the world,” Mr. Richardson said in the statement, provided by the Obama campaign early Friday morning.

2. An opposition politician breaks down Mugabe-omics in the WSJ.

Economic mismanagement by Mr. Mugabe's government is an even more serious problem. Zimbabwe's inflation and unemployment rates are 150,000% and 80% respectively. Infrastructure is crumbling, and education and health-care systems have collapsed. Life expectancy is now among the lowest in the world, having declined, since 1994, to 34 years from 57 years for women, and to 37 years from 54 for men. Some four million of my fellow citizens have fled the country, taking with them both human and financial capital.


3. Chavez goes after another opposition TV station in Venezuela as his popularity falls.

The tension between the news station and Chávez comes as the leftist president has lost popular support.

The polling firm Datos, in a quarterly survey of 2,000 Venezuelans last month, found that 34 percent said they support Chávez's government, down from a high of 67 percent in early 2005, and the lowest level since 2003, The Associated Press reported.

Another survey, by Venezuelan pollster Alfredo Keller, found that 37 percent of Venezuelans questioned identified themselves as Chávez supporters in February, down from 50 percent in mid-2007, the AP reported.

...As Though They Were Adults

John Stewart's take on Obama.

I can't imagine the hate mail HE will get.

(nod to SdM)

Thug Life in Michigan Local Politics

State-owned thuggery in Redford, Michigan, a western suburb of Detroit.

A website devoted to identifying Dillon's thugs. Pretty impressive that all of them are taking "vacation days" to spend their time blocking and harassing petitioners.

These are state employees, mind you. I recognize they get a LOT of vacation time. But they must be getting one day vacation for every day they work, to be able to pop up that quickly to surround any petitioner who dares ask for signatures.

A news story for background.


This is pretty mean stuff. I wish that Dillon's state thugs would take a page from the Detroit mayor's book. Then, it would be workers getting screwed, not the taxpayers.

Is the Fed targeting the Stock Market?

Well, if so, they might be "doin' it rong!". On September 4th 2007 the Dow stood at 13,400 and the Funds target was 5.25. On March 19, 2008 (yesterday) the Dow kneeled at 12,099 and the Funds target was 2.25. The raw correlation between the Funds target and the Dow from 8/15/07 - 3/19/08 is .75!!

It could just be the Fed is cutting for whatever reason and that's driving the market down. Which would be weird but not a case of the Fed targeting the Dow. However, if the market declines are driving the Fed to cut, that would be targeting. Note that these are not mutually exclusive hypotheses.

To sort them out, lets turn to our friend, the Granger causality test!!

At short lags (2, 3 or 4 days), changes in the funds target Granger cause the Dow (to go down!!!) but changes in the Dow do not Granger cause the funds rate (so no targeting). However at longer lags (which kind of make sense for the stock market feeding into monetary policy) the story changes. At lags of 5, 6, or 7 days each series Granger causes the other! And at lags of 8 or 9 days, the Dow Granger causes the funds target but the target does not Granger cause the Dow (I am using a 10% significance level here, but the results are broadly similar at 5%).

So yes, there is some very crude evidence that the Fed is targeting the Stock Market when looking at lags of between 5-9 days. Of course they are totally failing in these efforts as their cuts are "causing" the market to fall further.

If I've left out another relevant variable, then my tests are misspecified and biased. Also, to match up the interest rate data to the Dow data requires adjusting for the fact that the Dow data is on a 5 day week along with a few holidays missing, and Fred II reports the Funds target on a 7 day week basis. I filled in the holidays for the Dow by repeating the previous days close and matched the 5 day week to the 7 day week by hand.

Here is a graph of the Dow with vertical lines marking the dates of rate cuts:

Clinton is as Clinton does

In the Ohio primary, Obama and Hill were competing to see who could be more anti-trade, specifically anti-NAFTA. Obama suggested that Hillary was initially for NAFTA and was changing her view only now for political expediency (wherever could he have gotten that idea??).
Hill as is her wont, took great umbrage at an Obama mailer suggesting that she had been a NAFTA supporter. Here, let CNN remind you:

"Sen. Clinton has been going to great lengths on the campaign trail to distance herself from NAFTA," Obama said Sunday in Lorain, Ohio. "In her own book, Sen. Clinton called NAFTA one of 'Bill's successes' and 'legislative victories.' " "One million jobs have been lost because of NAFTA, including nearly 50,000 jobs here in Ohio. And yet, 10 years after NAFTA passed, Sen. Clinton said it was good for America. Well, I don't think NAFTA has been good for America -- and I never have," he said. The weekend feud kicked off when Clinton blasted recent mailings from the Obama camp, telling a crowd in Cincinnati, Ohio, an Obama mailing spread lies about her positions NAFTA.

The mailer says Clinton was a "champion" for NAFTA while first lady, but now opposes it. NAFTA was negotiated by the first President Bush and signed into law by President Bill Clinton.

Citing a 2006 issue of New York Newsday, the mailer says Clinton thought NAFTA was a "boon" to the economy. The term "boon" was actually the paper's characterization of Clinton's stance, and not a quote from her.

"Bad trade deals like NAFTA hit Ohio harder than other states. Only Barack Obama consistently opposed NAFTA," the mailer says.

A visibly angry Clinton lashed out Saturday at Obama over the campaign literature that she said he knows is "blatantly false."

"Shame on you, Barack Obama," she said, adding that she is fighting to change NAFTA.

Well imagine my surprise to read yesterday that, according to her recently released records, Hill was indeed a NAFTA champion.

Shame on who, exactly?

My Life: A pictoral essay

Sunday March 16:

Monday March 17 - Sunday March 23

Monday March 24th

Bring the Violence, It's Significant--To the Wife

My dear wife sends me the following email:

Menopause Jewelry

My husband, being unhappy with my mood swings, bought me a mood ring the other day so he would be able to monitor my moods.

We've discovered that when I'm in a good mood, it turns green.

When I'm in a bad mood, it leaves a big freaking red mark on his forehead.

Maybe next time he'll buy me a diamond. Dumb ass.

Wow. Her birthday is coming up. I think I'll take back the mood ring I bought her,
and get a diamond.

(props to Disturbed, for the title)

hat tip: LOLst

MMMMMMmmmm......beer. Breakfast of Academic Losers

Earlier, I argued that coffee, a muffin, and the NYT spelled failure in academics.

But it turns out I was wrong. The problem is: Beer.

(Nod to Bayou Jack, who asks: "Mungowitz, does this mean you plagiarized all your papers and books? 'Cause, looking at that gut, you have been DOIN' some beer." Thanks, Jack. I meant what I said about your mom.)

My Bad. This is MUCH More Offensive

My bad.

Apparently, the psycho "Stop, or I'll call you a racist" guy who sent me that email yesterday was reacting to something else.

Time Magazine picked up my entire quote, on Obama's speech:

Michael Munger
Political Science Professor
Duke University

Obama's speech was brave. He is trying to take an actual position, rather than just distance himself from the Rev. Wright, who is clearly a political liability. But I think he is being naive. There are just too many easy attack ads, piling up in the Republican library. (Michelle Obama: "For the first time in my adult life, I'm proud of my country." Rev. Wright: "God DAMN America.") Maybe it's a shame that you have to try to exhibit a treacly, shallow patriotism to be President. But John Kerry got hammered just for protesting the Vietnam War, a war that George W. Bush ducked. A black candidate named Barack Hussein Obama can't have questions about his patriotism, and commitment to America, not if he is going to beat a genuine war hero. I think Obama is unelectable. He had to distance himself far from Wright. Instead, he was brave.

Okay, NOW I see why he compared me to the KKK boys from Pulaski, TN. Wait. No, I don't.

Bayou Jack Sends Pictures of his Mom

Bayou Jack writes, sending some family pictures, with a description.

Here, for example is his mom, and younger brother.



Seriously, quite a father and son team. Notice that they are from my hometown area, in rural central FLA. Bayou Jack and Dutch Boy come from the same roots. Little surprise we....um....left. I think the kid on the right was our high school valedictorian.

Mungowitz Inaugural Party: NC Statehouse, 2009

It doesn't add up

The Fed struck again yesterday afternoon with another .75 percentage point haircut for the Fed funds rate. Since August, this rate has fallen from 5.25 to 2.25 while inflation has risen from 2.5% to well over 4%.

Mungowitz will probably kick me off this blog for beating this particular horse so often, but I think this is bad policy. The only thing I think these rate cuts have done is reduce the greatly feared ARM re-sets that were on the near horizon. However, we now pretty much know that the real problem for homeowners is not payment re-sets, but that home prices have fallen (or stopped rising) enough to make their positions negative. We have too much housing still at too high a price and the price re-set is slow. One thing that would help would be to stimulate the demand for housing with lower long term interest rates, but the current Fed policy of allowing inflation to rise has 30 year mortgage rates "stuck" well above 6%.

In sum, while I applaud the lender of last resort actions the Fed has been taking, I see little good and a lot of ill coming from these unrelenting Fed fund rate cuts. They won't stave off a possible recession, nor will they solve or notably improve the housing crisis. They will push up inflation and keep long term rates higher.

Mungowitz Called NAMES (sniffle)

Wow. So I gave a comment on Obama's speech. It was brief, pretty tepid. I underlined the quote from me, so it is easy to pick out:

The big question is whether Obama's speech Tuesday did enough to quell some of the negative impacts on his campaign.

"I don't know whether it will be sufficient to stem a racial backlash against his candidacy," said Thomas Mann at the Brookings Institution.

"But he clearly demonstrated his capacity to lead public opinion and not simply be a slave to it. Indeed, I would say he appeared wise beyond his years and genuinely presidential."

Michael Munger at Duke University called it a "brave" speech. "He is trying to take an actual position rather than just distance himself from the Rev. Wright."

Some analysts say it's much better for Obama to confront explosive race issues now because they were bound to become front and centre at some point.

"If he has to confront racial division in October in a major way, he will lose the election," said Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia.

"By October, he needs to have the media and voters say: 'We've already finished with this subject. What about Iraq. What about the economy?"'

ATSRTWT

Almost immediately after, I got this email.


(HUMAN-DILDO) <(HUMDILD@emailsomewhere.com>
to munger@acpub.duke.edu,
date Tue, Mar 18, 2008 at 8:30 PM
*********************************
Mike, your analysis of Mr. Obama speech was laughable. You were evidently dismissive with your unrestrained candor of Mr. Obama's chances of winning a general election.

if I didn't know better, I would think you have been spending your weekends organizing fundraisers for the boys back in Pulaski, TN.

FYI, my Munger, which I assume is shorthand for War Monger!

My parting gift is again to remind you that before too long, most of our future leaders will be of a darker hue! And that my friend is just plain fact, based solely on the demographic trends of the great United States.

I will even go as far as to say that there is a greater chance of these next few elections, four to five at most, can, and will be seen as the twilight of an ill conceived era. Again, I will say, 250 years at most!
*******************************
um....okay. I guess you win, pumpkin. I'm no match for you. The whole "War Monger" thing....you should write for Leno.

All Hail Mungowitz!

Chillipunk'd no more, Mungowitz will stride the stage like a colossus at the final NC Gubernatorial debate this October. This is huge, people. We will see things we have never seen before. My advice? Get your tickets early!

Angus: Repent!

They slipped up and said it out loud

Judge Walter Croskey 2nd district court of appeals in the decision to ban home schooling in California unless the home schooler has a teaching credential:

“A primary purpose of the educational system is to train school children in good citizenship, patriotism and loyalty to the state and the nation as a means of protecting the public welfare.”

Holy crap people! Did he really write that? Loyalty to the State??

You know, suddenly home schooling doesn't seem so creepy to me anymore.

Here is an essay on the ruling. Here is David Friedman on the quotation.

A policy puzzler

The Fed is so screwed. Economic growth has slowed to a crawl at best, housing prices are taking forever to adjust down after the bubble, credit markets are panicky like Mungowitz when there is only one six pack left in the fridge, and inflation is on the rise.

Now it seems clear, given that markets are expecting a 3/4 to 1 percentage point cut in the Fed Funds rate later today, that the consensus opinion is that the Fed is committed fighting recession and ignoring inflation risks.

On the one hand, this makes sense because a recession is probably more painful than some extra inflation (which presumably the Fed would slowly bring down after the crisis has passed). On the other hand though, it doesn't make sense because the Fed can actually control inflation and its main policy tool, the rate cut, stands little chance of averting a recession especially compared to its chances for further aggravating inflation.

Now Mrs. Angus and I both have tenure (and university enrollments are still booming for the time being) and we are planning a foreign vacation this summer, so maybe my views are totally skewed by my own self-interest here, but I think the Fed is making a mistake. They can pursue their lender of last resort function (which I think is good policy given our credit market panic) without also pursuing their panderer of first resort path of continuing to cut the funds rate.

People, we had a huge asset bubble burst and the asset in question (housing) has slow price adjustment. Cutting the Funds rate won't change this.

Hilllary: Strong Woman, or "Rhymes with Stitch"

Social Desirability Effects and Support for a Female American President

Matthew Streb, Barbara Burrell, Brian Frederick & Michael Genovese
Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2008, Pages 76-89

Abstract:
Public opinion polls show consistently that a substantial portion of the American public would vote for a qualified female presidential candidate. Because of the controversial nature of such questions, however, the responses may suffer from social desirability effects. In other words, respondents may be purposely giving false answers as not to violate societal norms. Using an unobtrusive measure called the "list experiment," we find that public opinion polls are indeed exaggerating support for a female president. Roughly 26 percent of the public is "angry or upset" about the prospect of a female president. Moreover, this level of dissatisfaction is constant across several demographic groups.

---------------------------

Selective Attention to Signs of Success: Social Dominance and Early Stage
Interpersonal Perception

Jon Maner, Nathan DeWall & Matthew Gailliot
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, April 2008, Pages 488-501

Abstract:
Results from two experiments suggest that observers selectively attend to male, but not female, targets displaying signs of social dominance. Participants overestimated the frequency of dominant men in rapidly presented stimulus arrays (Study 1) and visually fixated on dominant men in an eyetracking experiment (Study 2). When viewing female targets, participants attended to signs of physical attractiveness rather than social dominance. Findings fit with evolutionary models of mating, which imply that dominance and physical attractiveness sometimes tend to be prioritized preferentially in judgments of men versus women, respectively. Findings suggest that sex differences in human mating are observed not only at the level of overt mating preferences and choices but also at early stages of interpersonal perception. This research demonstrates the utility of examining early-in-the-stream social cognition through the functionalist lens of adaptationist thinking.

Here's what I think. Humans are sexually dimorphic, and muscle tone and mass also differ. Dominance hierarchies are based in part of objective dominance potential, and in the absence of other information a lot of that comes down to visual correlates of size and strength. If a man the size of my wife (5'3", 95 pounds) tried to give signals of dominance, he would get the hell beat out of him. Man strive for dominance, and won't concede to a tiny man without evidence.

So, these studies should control for size and strength. If you were comparing two people of the same potential dominance, in physical terms, I bet most of the "gender" difference would disappear.

I am 6'1", 250 pounds, can bench press my weight, and look like I can bench press my weight. Dominance signals from me may not be welcome, but they are not embarrassing. People think, "well, he's a big guy."

Dominance signals from a tiny person are going to be resented, and perhaps openly mocked.

Now, dominance hierarchies can be malleable, of course, when you have more information than just size. In my house, there is no question but that my wife occupies a higher position than I do. I am obedient and respectful, at all times, knowing that to act otherwise would bring me certain death.

(nod to KL for the references)

Look at ME! Look at ME!

A competition between the Govs of Penna and NY, on who was the biggest sex sleaze.

David Paterson, the NEW gov of NY, admits to his own sexual infidelities. (He's blind, so I think that means he could go with cheaper hookers, right?)

Still, McGreevey may win. Having your driver help you make a sandwich, with your wife being the meat....wow.

(Nod to KH)

It's The Apocalypse: The NY Times has it right

I am no fan of the NY Times. The hatchet job those folks did, in editorials and largely fictional "news" of the Duke non-rape, non-assault case was appalling.

But, they have it right, right now.

First, on the Bear-Stearns bailout. Are you KIDDING me? I remember in the late 1980s when all my cheeKAHgo boy friends who worked in Chile were telling me confidently that the regime meant it, it really did. No bailouts. Oh, until some banks failed, banks owned by the pro-regime elite. 1983, and again in 1989. Turned out that free-market principles don't extend to letting your pals go bankrupt, even if they deserve it. In 1989 Chile passed the "Law Establishing the Central Bank of Chile, Law No. 18840." To make these bailoutsofourrichfriends easier. Bye, bye, now, cheeKAHgos.

Second, Stanley Fish (Stanley FREAKING Fish, of Duke Psychotic English Department fame!) totally nails the issues, the analysis, and logic of the superdelegate "crisis."

The PRD still belongs to AMLO

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, (AMLO), aka el Peje has kind of pulled a Putin with "his" party, the PRD. After his incredibly narrow loss to Calderón in the 2006 presidential election, Peje refused to accept defeat, set up a shadow government and generally alienated even his intellectual allies on the Mexican left. However, he has re-gained some traction (or suction as they call it on "the wire") with his opposition to any move to allow privatizing part of Mexico's petroleum industry and his criticism of Calderón ally and interior minister, Juan Camilo Mouriño, who "has been accused of steering lucrative contracts with the state oil monopoly to his family trucking business when he was the chairman of the energy committee in the lower house of Congress and, later, an assistant secretary of energy."

AMLO has been making political hay and re-gaining popularity. At the same time the PRD was undergoing a campaign and vote for a new party leader. Yesterday, Alejandro Encinas won the post in an election. Encinas is a close ally of AMLO and the WSJ opined last week that, "Mr. Encinas, a former member of the defunct Mexican Communist Party, vows to stick with Mr. López Obrador and take a hard line against Mr. Calderón's government. If he wins, Mr. Encinas will likely throw the entire party machinery behind Mr. López Obrador for another run at the presidency in 2012."

Here is a link to a spanish language story on the election outcome and it's significance for AMLO (Peje).

Bald don't lie

I am not a big fan of costume dramas, but I gotta say the first episode of "John Adams" on HBO last night was pretty terrific. Amazingly, Paul Giamotti is actually too handsome to give a true to life portrayal of good old JA, but when he got up in the pulpit and speechified about natural rights and liberties I actually got choked up a bit.

Laura Linney seems like she's going to be good as Abigail. Linney gave a great performance in "The Savages" last year opposite Phillip Seymor Hoffman.

There's a long way to go, and the other characters so far (Sam Adams, John Hancock, the Attorney General) are just crude caricatures, but I think the whole thing might be good.

Feast your eyes on the real McCoy people; some forefathers eye-candy for ya:

hard to explain, really

This is difficult to explain.

So I won't try.

Literature Update: Planning, Pricing, and Pissing Off

Do people plan?

John Bone, John Hey & John Suckling
Experimental Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:
We report the results of an experimental investigation of a key axiom of economic theories of dynamic decision making-namely, that agents plan. Inferences from previous investigations have been confounded with issues concerning the preference functionals of the agents. Here, we present an innovative experimental design which is driven purely by dominance: if preferences satisfy dominance, we can infer whether subjects are planning or not. We implement three sets of experiments: the first two (the Individual Treatments) in which the same player takes decisions both in the present and the future; and the third (the Pairs Treatment) in which different players take decisions at different times. The two Individual treatments differed in that, in one, the subjects played sequentially, while, in the other, the subjects had to pre-commit to their future move. In all contexts, according to economic theory, the players in the present should anticipate the decision of the player in the future. We find that over half the participants in all three experimental treatments do not appear to be planning ahead; moreover, their ability to plan ahead does not improve with experience, except possibly when we force subjects to pre-commit to their future decision. These findings identify an important lacuna in economic theories, both for individual behaviour and for behaviour in games.

-------------------------------

Zero as a special price: The true value of free products

Kristina Shampan'er, Nina Mazar, & Dan Ariely
Marketing Science, forthcoming

Abstract:
When faced with a choice of selecting one of several available products (or possibly buying nothing), according to standard theoretical perspectives, people will choose the option with the highest cost-benefit difference. However, we propose that decisions about free (zero price) products differ, in that people do not simply subtract costs from benefits and perceive the benefits associated with free products as higher. We test this proposal by contrasting demand for two products across conditions that maintain the price difference between the goods, but vary the prices such that the cheaper good in the set is priced at either a low positive or zero price. In contrast with a standard cost-benefit perspective, in the zero price
condition, dramatically more participants choose the cheaper option, whereas
dramatically fewer participants choose the more expensive option. Thus, people appear to act as if zero pricing of a good not only decreases its cost but also adds to its benefits. After documenting this basic effect, we propose and test several psychological antecedents of the effect, including social norms, mapping difficulty, and affect. Affect emerges as the most likely account for the effect.

------------------------------

Thinking Straight While Seeing Red: The Influence of Anger on Information
Processing

Wesley Moons & Diane Mackie
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, May 2007, Pages 706-720

Abstract:
Because angry people apparently rely on heuristic cues when making
judgments, anger has been claimed to trigger superficial, nonanalytic
information processing. In three studies, the authors found that induced
anger promoted analytic processing. Experiment 1 showed that angry
participants were more likely to discriminate between weak and strong
arguments than participants in neutral moods. Experiment 2 demonstrated that
anger overrode dispositional preferences not to process, causing even those
low in need for cognition to process analytically. Experiment 3 reconciled
these findings with previous work by showing that angry people used
accessible, valid, and relevant heuristics but otherwise processed
analytically, as indicated by attitude change and elaboration data.
Together, these experiments showed that angry people can have both the
capacity and motivation to process and that their selective use of
heuristics reflects the cue's perceived validity and not the failure to
process analytically.

-----------------------------

Can an Angry Woman Get Ahead? Status Conferral, Gender, and Expression of
Emotion in the Workplace

Victoria Brescoll & Eric Luis Uhlmann
Psychological Science, March 2008, Pages 268-275

Abstract:
Three studies examined the relationships among anger, gender, and status conferral. As in prior research, men who expressed anger in a professional context were conferred higher status than men who expressed sadness. However, both male and female evaluators conferred lower status on angry female professionals than on angry male professionals. This was the case regardless of the actual occupational rank of the target, such that both a female trainee and a female CEO were given lower status if they expressed anger than if they did not. Whereas women's emotional reactions were
attributed to internal characteristics (e.g., "she is an angry person," "she is out of control"), men's emotional reactions were attributed to external circumstances. Providing an external attribution for the target person's anger eliminated the gender bias. Theoretical implications and practical applications are discussed.

*******************************

Three comments: a shame that John Hey is a co-author on the first paper. I would love to cite the "Bone-Suckling paper." It would clearly be semenal. (Okay, I'm already sorry I said that. You won't tell anyone, right? That was just juvenile.)

Second: On the "free" paper: The point is that people underestimate the true costs of "free" stuff. And that's interesting. But I think it is safe to say that Elliott Spitzer would have been MUCH better off with what he was getting for free, from his wife, instead of what he was paying for, from Kristen.
In that case, at least, free really, really is better.

Third, Dan Ariely is a colleague of mine here at Duke. And he is doing some of the coolest stuff around.

(Nod to KL)

Ebay makes Okie life sweet

A pair of antique vacuum tubes (from the 1930s I believe) that I bought off Ebay arrived in today's mail. I had never seen engraved base, globe glass, mesh plate 56 triodes before and when I did, I had to get them. They test fantastically strong, just as the seller advertised and they are going in my soon to be finished homemade preamp.

Feast your eyes people:

OKC Sonics....has a nice ring to it, eh?

Well at least it won't be as weird as the Utah Jazz!

Anyway my neighbors up in Oak City have agreed to tax themselves to provide $120 million plus to renovate the Ford Center for the Sonics and now the city has agreed to terms on a 15 year lease with the team. The Sonics' request to move will be voted on by the NBA next month, and David Stern is on record that if Seattle hadn't done anything the request would be approved. Well Seattle has talked about doing something, but has not actually done anything.

Plus, we Okies have a built in corporate sponsor for the team.

Mrs. Angus is already worried about me blowing the family budget on tickets.

Fundmania

Mr. and Ms. Fundman visited the Mungowitz house.

First, we had fun with firearms. Fundman chose the AK, while Ms. Fundman chose the 8mm Mauser K98 with fixed bayonet, always popular with the ladies.


Then, played some Rock Band. Younger younger Munger on drums, Ms. Fundman on guitar, and Fundman himself on vocals. Ms. Fundman was quite a good guitar player. I'm going to leave it at that. Here is Fundman, singing "Black Hole Sun."

And Don't Forget the Press Gangs

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

Daniel Benjamin & Christopher Thornberg
Explorations in Economic History, April 2007, Pages 317-341

Abstract:
The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of
its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly
from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those
of today's large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a
hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came
with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the
option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in
higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay
structure.

Of course, you could also be "impressed" with the navy's recruiting program....

(Nod to KL)

A Fine Start

David Paterson just gave his first public address since Eliot Spitzer's resignation yesterday. He made noises about "getting back to work" and the budget, talked about being black and blind, indicated he wasn't planning any major changes to his predecessors more controversial policies, and became the first human being in government to express sympathy for Spitzer himself. "My heart goes out to Eliot Spitzer, his wife Silda, his daughters," he said. "I know what he's gone through this week. In my heart, I think he's suffered enough." Paterson also displayed a rather awesome sense of humor. "Just so we don't have to go through this whole resignation thing again," one ballsy reporter asked, "have you ever patronized a prostitute?" Patterson thought for a minute. "Only the lobbyists," he said.

ATSRTWT

(Nod to Anonyman)

I commit

I commit to....wondering why this works.

But it may.

(Nod to Anonyman, who is not from the "Spitzer School" of commitment)

What?

It's possible the editing cut out the parts that made sense.

But there was still quite a bit that....didn't.

Tom's documentary debut: not good.

(Nod to Bayou Jack)

Marginal Revolution Watch

MR is my second favorite blog and the source of much KPC traffic, but I have to take a bit of issue with a couple of their recent posts:

(1) First, Tyler, quoting himself, says that Wikipedia is more likely to be true than the "median refereed journal article on economics" and that this should "give us pause".

Well, I think so too (but didn't give myself pause in doing so), but that's mainly because few journal articles are about people's life histories or historical events or giving definitions of well established concepts. The median refereed journal article in economics is almost surely empirical which means it is making a probabilistic argument based on inductive reasoning from a sample. By definition it's not "true".

Now if the question is whether there are more active attempts to deceive in econ journals vs. Wikipedia, I think that is less of a sure thing but even there the basic fact that we are comparing apples to oranges makes it problematic to say anything definitive.

(2) Meanwhile, Alex presents a curious defense of swinging ex-Gov. Spitzer:

"If Governor Spitzer wanted to have sex with a younger woman then instead of hiring a prostitute he could have gotten a divorce and remarried, just like so many other rich and powerful men. Or he could have had an affair. Of these options hiring a prostitute is the least threatening to marriage but it's the only option which is illegal. In contrast, getting a divorce and remarrying a younger woman is so common it doesn't even stop a man from running for President."

Now, I favor legalized prostitution and I found Dershowitz's WSJ editorial convincing in its arguments that the case against Spitzer is most probably an example of prosecutorial abuse of power, but I do not agree that divorce is more harmful to the institution of marriage than cheating and lying. That is pretty much like saying staying with an abusive spouse is less harmful to "marriage" than leaving her and starting over. I guess the best way to say this is that I reject "protecting marriage" as some kind of gold standard by which to judge the morality or correctness of people's actions. Being honest, getting a divorce and then taking up with someone else is clearly a morally preferable course of action to secret affairs or secret expenditures.

Moko for President

From New Zealand comes the story of Moko the rescue dolphin. Two "pygmy sperm whales" repeatedly grounded themselves on a sandbar and rescuers couldn't seem to get them turned around and out to sea. It seemed like curtains for the hapless cetaceans. Then along came Moko:

Rescuers worked for more than one hour to get the whales back into the water, only to see them strand themselves four times on a sandbar slightly out to sea. It looked likely the whales would have to be euthanized to prevent them suffering a prolonged death, Smith said.

"They kept getting disorientated and stranding again," said Smith, who was among the rescuers. "They obviously couldn't find their way back past (the sandbar) to the sea."

Along came Moko, who approached the whales and led them 200 meters (yards) along the beach and through a channel out to the open sea.

"Moko just came flying through the water and pushed in between us and the whales," Juanita Symes, another rescuer, told The Associated Press. "She got them to head toward the hill, where the channel is. It was an amazing experience. The best day of my life."

Anton van Helden, a marine mammals expert at New Zealand's national museum, Te Papa Tongarewa, said the reports of Moko's rescue were "fantastic" but believable because the dolphins have "a great capacity for altruistic activities."

And when his work was done??

After the rescue, Moko returned to the beach and joined in games with local residents.

Wow!

This is the best of all possible Campaigns....

....because you get to see stuff like this:

Sinbad Unloads on Hillary Clinton

The only thing funnier than Hillary claiming to have vast foreign policy experience is Obama digging up Sinbad to slap her down on the particulars of her mission to Bosnia.

Some highlights:

Sinbad, along with singer Sheryl Crow, was on that 1996 trip to Bosnia that Clinton has described as a harrowing international experience that makes her tested and ready to answer a 3 a.m. phone call at the White House on day one, a claim for which she's taking much grief on the campaign trail.Harrowing? Not that Sinbad recalls. He just remembers it being a USO tour to buck up the troops amid a much worse situation than he had imagined between the Bosnians and Serbs.

In an interview with the Sleuth Monday, he said the "scariest" part of the trip was wondering where he'd eat next. "I think the only 'red-phone' moment was: 'Do we eat here or at the next place.'"

and then there's this:

In her Iowa stump speech, Clinton also said, "We used to say in the White House that if a place is too dangerous, too small or too poor, send the First Lady."

Say what? As Sinbad put it: "What kind of president would say, 'Hey, man, I can't go 'cause I might get shot so I'm going to send my wife...oh, and take a guitar player and a comedian with you.'"

Well, Sinbad, off the top of my head, I'd say an intern-diddling chicken-$%$# president like Bill Clinton would be the kind of president who'd say something like that.

Huge hat tip to Betsy!

A forecast to believe in?

The UCLA Anderson Forecast group headed by Ed Leamer sez NO RECESSION.

People this is Ed Freakin' Leamer. This is Mr. "Lets take the Con out of Econometrics", Mr. Extreme Bounds Analysis. This is not some third rate analyst at a bank or a political hack or a creepy blogger broadcasting from their mom's basement. He's for realz, so you gotta take it pretty seriously.

They are predicting one negative quarter (-.4% in the second quarter of 08) with the growth rate up to 2.5% by the end of the year.

Here is a clip from the article:

In staking out the contrarian position, Leamer noted that UCLA bucked other forecasters in 2001 by correctly predicting that year's recession.

"We got it right, and we stood alone back then," he said. In jest, he added later that he had "submitted my resignation letter, in the event I am wrong."

Whether truly in recession or not, Leamer said the economy would be sputtering. It remains so fragile that "if there is a quick halt to consumer spending, we will for sure have a recession in 2008," he added.

"The question is whether [2008] will be disappointing or horrible; our forecast is disappointing," he said in an interview.

The Anderson forecasters contend that the economy has been wounded mainly by the collapse of residential real estate. The number of jobs overall will continue to increase, but not at a pace fast enough to employ the growing numbers of people seeking work.

National unemployment will peak at 5.6% at the beginning of 2009, according to the forecast, from 4.8% currently.

My Wife's Solution: LB

I was working on a letter of recommendation last night, about 9 pm.

Hadn't noticed that my wife had walked into my office behind me.

Suddenly, she makes this announcement, startling me first with the sound,
and then with the content.

Her announcement: "If I ever catch YOU with a prostitute, remember two words: 'Lorena Bobbitt.'"

Then, she walks out.

If you marry an Italian woman, there are certain consequences, costs to be paid.

But at least one always knows where one stands. Because she'll tell you.

Markets in Everything: Yer Doin' it Rong!

Special Swedish Edition!!

The Swedes are selling a $120 million (aka 47 euro) Rembrandt painting for only $49 million. Closer inspection reveals however, that they are actually trying to sell a plaque with someone's name on it for $49 million. Confused? Don't be. They will sell you the painting on the condition that you give it right back to them. Really, I am not making this up. It will hang in the same place in the same museum for perpetuity (it's not you loaning it to them, you are giving it). Thus your $49 million buys you a mention on the plaque next to the painting: "gift of Mr Bigdummy McDummyius".

Here, let the Associated Press try to explain it:

The arts academy that owns Rembrandt's "Conspiracy of the Batavians Under Claudius Civilis" said Tuesday that it is willing to let the work go for $49 million, less than half its estimated value.

The buyer, however, must agree to donate the masterpiece to Stockholm's Nationalmuseum, where it is one of the main attractions, said Olle Granath, permanent secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy of Fine Arts.

"It has hung at the Nationalmuseum since 1866. That's where it's going to stay," Granath told The Associated Press, adding that the cash-strapped academy is selling the painting to raise money for exhibitions and other activities.

The Rembrandt was valued at $120 million, but the academy was ready to offer a 60 percent discount because of the condition to donate it to the waterfront museum.

By the way, over at MR, Tyler has another Yer doin' it Rong edition of markets in everything up, though he neglected to label it as such. His is from the Netherlands.

If just saying Barack's middle name is a no-no, what about this??

On the cover of the latest "National Enquirer". Below Patrick Swayze, to the right of Britney and above Starr Jones sits BHO:



Here is a link to the article in the Enquirer and here is a link to Brendan Nyhan's analysis.

Holy Crap people.

Will the last Republicans left please turn off the lights?

I have been told that one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while always expecting a different outcome. On these grounds, much of the Republican Congressional delegation is clearly insane. They still seem to believe that anti-immigrant nativist bilge is a big vote winner for them:

WASHINGTON - House Republicans are trying to force action on a Democratic-written immigration enforcement measure, the latest GOP attempt to elevate the volatile issue into an election-year wedge.Republican leaders hope that by pushing the bill — endorsed by 48 centrist Democrats and 94 Republicans — they can drive Democrats into a politically painful choice: Backing a tough immigration measure that could alienate their base, including Hispanic voters, or being painted as soft on border security in conservative-leaning districts.

The plan is fraught with political risks for both parties. A full-blown immigration debate could call attention to Republicans' divisions at a time when their expected presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, is fighting to gain the trust of the GOP base.

Since Tancredo and his posse did so well in the Republican primaries, I guess this really is a good idea, eh??

Elliott Sptizer Plays Claude Frollo, All Too Well

Gov. Elliot Spitzer (D-N.Y.) acknowledged in a very brief statement, Monday, that he had violated the obligations he had to his family and the public, though he offered no specific comments about a report that he was involved in a prostitution ring.

"I am disappointed that I failed to live up to the standard I set for myself," Spitzer said. "I must now dedicate some time to regain the trust of my family." (ATSRTWT)

The "standard"? You mean, like, the LAW? You mean, like, the marriage promises he made to his wife to be faithful, which certainly imply NOT PAYING HIGH PRICED CALL GIRLS TO SLIDE UP AND DOWN HIS NYFD-APPROVED FIRE POLE?

Spitzer is a guy who really went out of his day to do the sanctimonious thing. This call-girl admission by Marse Elliot is every bit as big as Jimmy Swaggart, and for the same reason. If you worship at the secular church of the law, you have to obey the law.

Two thoughts:
"Take the Money and Run," Steve Miller. Spitzer is Billy Mac
Billy Mac, is a detective down in Texas
And though he knows just exactly what the fact is
He ain't gonna let those two escape justice
He makes his livin' off of other people's taxes

Mr. Spitzer used tax money, paid to him to run a protection racket ("pay me, or I'll sic the LAW on ya, boy!") to pay hookers and cheat on his wife. Isn't that a problem, for a prosecutor? I know, sure, I think prostitution should be legal. But I think cheating on your wife is immoral, and breaking the law means you can't be a prosecutor.(corrected; I put "prostitute" at first. A Freudian slip...)


Thought the second: "Hunchback of Notre Dame," Victor Hugo.
Claude Frollo, the sex-obsessed prosecutor/priest, wants the girl Esmerelda hung. Why? Because Frollo can't control his sexual urges for her. It CAN'T be anyone's fault but ...hers, right? And Frollo-Spitzer says so: "Oh, it was she! still and forever she!—that fixed idea that haunted him incessantly, that tortured him, gnawed his brain, wrung his very vitals! He regretted nothing, he repented of nothing; all that he had done he was ready to do again..." (Hunchback, Book IX, Chapter 1, "Delirium.")

KPC Board Meeting! A Feast in Two Parts

Angus, the lovely Ms. Angus, and KG Mungowitz met for two very nice meals in San Antonio. Dirty Davey had asked, and I wanted to echo Angus's recommendation in comments.

Two fine restaurants in San Antonio.

Biga on the Banks. Very fine. And accommodating. Ms. Angus had a request "Give me the duck, only substitute chicken, and then hold the chicken" (you'd have to know her, it made sense at the time, it really did), and the waiter didn't flinch. Angus, having a touch of a food allergy (if he touches this food, it makes him really sick), had some requests that were handled deftly. And the food was terrific. We talked for an hour after paying the bill, on a pretty busy night, and they didn't bother us at all. Quite an upscale place, with nice atmosphere, on the River Walk, but not really pricey for all that.

Acenar. Angus heaven. Perfectly good food, better than good, in fact. Very fresh, very Mexican, right on the River Walk, moderate prices. And the colors and furniture all look as if they were designed by Dr. Seuss. I really, really liked their grilled fish tacos. But it looked like everything was good.

Colombia is winning their battle against the FARC

It was a bad week for the FARC. First Paul Reyes was killed in his Ecuadorian sanctuary (just like on "The Wire", his cell phone gave him away). Second, even though Chavez rattled sabers, mobilized troops and got his pals to do the same, the Colombians pretty much got away with it. Sure, they apologized and said they'd not do it again, but there was also anti-harboring language in the agreement and then there was this too:



Third, FARC honcho, Ivan Rios was killed by his own people and his body (or parts of it) turned over the the Colombian Government. Fourth, FARC topdog Manuel Marulanda is reported to be gravely ill and under medical care somewhere in Venezuela. Fifth, the info on the laptops found at Reyes' camp in Ecuador show the FARC admitting to atrocities they'd denied publically. Sixth, arms dealing pariah Viktor Bout (what a great name; it's like a wrestling ring name) was arrested in Thailand in a sting operation and stands accused of supplying weapons to the FARC.

So after over 40 years of fighting the FARC, two top leaders are killed in a week, international repercussions from the cross-border raid were minimal, the FARC supreme commander is gravely ill, more damaging info about the FARC is coming to light, and one of their main arms dealers is well and truly busted. Ouch.

WWAD?

This morning, at the Public Choice meetings...Ms. Angus was a discussant on a paper.

The guy giving the paper, just as he was getting started, says: "Oh, and this is work in progress. So, I have continued to work and make progress in the two weeks since I sent the paper to the discussant. So, it's pretty different."

Now, Ms. Angus is nice. She can take care of herself just fine, but she is too nice to be an ass about this.

But me? I said to myself: "WWAD?" (What would Angus do?)

So, I shouted, from the back of the room, "Thanks for coming, discussant!"

I think all of us should ask, every day, in every way: "WWAD?" And then do it. Just do it.

KGM: KPC's Man in Texas

So, I'm here for the Public Choice meetings. Lots of unintentional comedic fashion, and I'm sure I'm part of the show, given my fashion non-sense and ballon-like body.

There were three things salient about my first day.

1. Weather. Really, really cold and windy. And rainy. Mid-40s, 20-25 mph wind, pouring rain on and off. I went for two pretty long walks. It was really cold. Would have been better if I had brought a jacket, I suppose.

2. Food. Obviously one of SA's strong points. For breakfast, I went primal: G/M Steakhouse, across from the Alamo. One of my favorites, for years. You pretty much can't spend more than $8.00, including everything, and that's if you get the main dish, chicken fried steak. I got two tacos, carne guisada and huevos con chorizo, and a coffee. $4.30. The carne guisada is just like abuelita would have made. G/M has many choices, with pancakes and pretty much any "American" breakfast you want. Cheap, solid, real breakfast.

For lunch, I went to Schilos, the famous German deli. Three things are reputed to be worth the trip: split pea soup, Rueben sandwich, and cheesecake. Since these things are all Mungowitz faves anyway...what the hell? I had been walking in polar temperatures without a jacket for an hour, so the calories weren't such a problem. The verdict: Split pea soup--very nice. It helped that I was cold. But yum. Thick and good. Rueben--deceptive. Disappointing appearance, especially if you are used to the east coast presentation of huge sandwich, fried bread, etc. The Schilos Rueben is just two slices of bread, with thousand island dressing, corned beef, and sauer kraut. BUT: Wow. What a difference ingredients make. You wouldn't want to hide this with breading or frying. The rye bread was the best I've had... well...ever.(If you DON'T like strong rye bread, don't get this sandwich). Ditto corned beef: wonderful. A very, very good sandwich. Cheesecake: It was fine. But nothing special. I think the Rueben's remarkable simple goodness had raised my expectations.

Dinner: Out with the publisher for _________, on their dime. We went to Saltgrass Steakhouse. On the riverwalk. They have Shiner Bock draft, which would be silly anywhere else. But it is brewed in SA, so go for it. I think of Shiner Bock as the beer grad students serve because it's cheap, but it has acquired a certain export cachet elsewhere. We all order steaks. I get the Porterhouse, because I am hungry. The salad is okay, nothing special, too much cheese and too much dressing, mostly on iceberg lettuce. Typical steakhouse mediocre salad. Bread is okay. The steak, and fried onions, on the other hand, are tremendous. I don't get steak often, and I admit I was hungry, but this was just about perfect. Cooked just right, tender, juicy: wonderful. I wouldn't want to do that every night, but if you are going to have a steak you might as well go to a real steak place. And Saltgrass is, for the genre, not that pricey and gives good value on sides, instead of making you order them a la carte.

3. In counting, there is strength: Texas can't decide who gets what delegates. Wow! Interesting to read the paper down here. They seriously can't decide, at the county level, who gets what delegates. And, the point in Texas is to hold your county box until late, so you can send it in with the "extra" votes that your guy needs. It appears the delegates from the Texas primary, held this past Tuesday, won't be awarded for sure until...JUNE! Lots of irregularities, some just the result of not reading directions, some...well, some are more sinister. Or, maybe just strange. In the far south counties in Texas, mysterious forces are at work. One county wanted to give its two delegates to: Mike Huckabee. This in the DEMOCRATIC primary, mind you. Reading the newspaper here makes you feel you are reading Robert Caro.

Early nomination for A-Hole of the Year!

Ladies and Gentleman, as happy as I was in my previous post, I am that pissed and disgusted in this one. I give you Tripp Isenhour in all his glory as my early favorite for A-hole of 08.

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP)—PGA Tour golfer Tripp Isenhour was charged with killing a hawk on purpose with a golf shot because it was making noise as he videotaped a TV show

Isenhour was with a film crew for “Shoot Like A Pro” on Dec. 12 at the Grand Cypress Golf course. The 39-year-old golfer, whose real name is John Henry Isenhour III, was charged Wednesday with cruelty to animals and killing a migratory bird.

The charges carry a maximum penalty of 14 months in jail and $1,500 in fines.

According to court documents, Isenhour got upset when a red-shouldered hawk began making noise, forcing another take. He began hitting balls at the bird, then 300 yards away, but gave up.

Isenhour started again when the hawk moved within about 75 yards, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission officer Brian Baine indicated in a report.

Isenhour allegedly said “I’ll get him now,” and aimed for the hawk.

“About the sixth ball came very near the bird’s head, and (Isenhour) was very excited that it was so close,” Baine wrote.

A few shots later, witnesses said he hit the hawk. The bird, protected as a migratory species, fell to the ground bleeding from both nostrils.

Isenhour’s agent, John Mascatello with SFX World Sports Management, did not immediately return an e-mail or telephone message Thursday.

“He just kept saying how he didn’t think he could have hit it, which I think is a stupid thing for a PGA Tour golfer to say,” said Jethro Senger, a sound engineer at the shoot. “He can put a ball in a hole from hundreds of yards away, and here he is hitting line drives at something that’s, I don’t know, a couple hundred feet away?”

Senger said it was “basically like a joke to (Isenhour).” He said no one in the roughly 15-person crew intervened, and many later regretted it.

“It was one of those cases where there’s some trepidation on whether or not they should speak up and do something,” Senger said.

Senger said the killing was not captured on video. The bird was buried at the golf course and later dug up by Florida investigators.

Isenhour, of Salisbury, N.C., turned pro in 1990. He had two wins on the Nationwide Tour in 2006.

What an ass. I mean to just stand there and hit at the thing til you kill it for absolutely no reason other than you are an ass and a sorry excuse for a human. Shoot like a pro indeed.

Rejoicing in Okieland!

It's nervewracking to have students on the job market. For me at least, the responsibility for their placement is a heavy one. So I am thrilled to report that as of yesterday, all three of my students on the market have accepted tenure-track jobs! Two (a couple) at the University of Colorado-Denver and one (who I co-directed with Mrs. Angus) at the B-school of Oklahoma City University. Congratulations guys, go out and keep making us Okie-proud!

Neologism

So, my boys at 'Dome continue that crack reporting. And, to RMB's credit, points out that we live in a bizarrely self-referring age.

I can now prove that "chilly punk'd" is an actual phrase.

The proof is that it appears in "the Urban Dictionary."

And that reference points to my original claim that the phrase exists.

(Thanks to KPC main man prison rodeo, though, for the ACTUAL word, in comments. SOMEBODY knows what's going on. If you want to know dudespeak, you can't rely on GOOGLE as your reference library. GOOGLE is so five minutes ago.)

New Music from Old Favorites

Two very strong groups that have been quiet for quite a while announced new albums this week.

First the excellent German collective The Notwist will be releasing "The Devil, You, & Me" in May and will be touring Europe to support it. They last released an album, the outstanding "Neon Golden", 6 years ago. Here is a track.

Second, The Tindersticks will release "The Hungry Saw" at the end of May. More information including a track can be found on their myspace page here.

Groundhog Day

Last night, Hillary Clinton saw her shadow and now we will be treated to 6 more weeks (at least) of this race to the bottom also known as the Democratic Presidential nominating process. Winning the popular votes in Ohio and Texas keeps Hill alive at least to the April 22nd PA primary and most likely beyond.

The conventional wisdom is that further Dem infighting helps McCain. Indeed his new pal, Fla. Governor Crist, has helpfully offered to schedule a do-over for the debacle that was (wasn't?) the Florida Democratic Primary. That guy has VEEP written all over him!

The Other Other White Meat

Eat a whale and save the planet, a Norwegian pro-whaling lobby said on Monday of a study showing that harpooning the giant mammals is less damaging to the climate than farming livestock.

The survey, focused on whale boats' fuel use, showed that a kilo (2.2 lbs) of whale meat represented just 1.9 kilo (4.2 lbs) of greenhouse gases against 15.8 for beef, 6.4 for pork and 4.6 for chicken.

"Basically it turns out that the best thing you can do for the planet is to eat whale meat compared to other types of meat," said Rune Froevik of the High North Alliance, which represents the interests of coastal communities in the Arctic.

"Greenhouse gas emissions caused by one meal of beef are the equivalent of eight meals of whale meat," the study said.

Mungowitz: can I get a Amen??